Starting to feel a little optimism for 2014

[reillymcshane]

Brewers have played .500 ball since July 1.

 

Not bad considering we've had next to no contributions from Braun and A-Ram.

[torts]

3 against a struggling pirates team, could end august on a strong note!

[JohnBriggs12]

5-4 in the last 9 against the top teams in the division. 4 of 6 on the road against the Reds and Pirates. Two rookies have made their mark replacing Braun and Weeks. They had breakout players in place at SS, CF, and C. There's a lot to like about this team.

 

The last couple years it's been a combination of slow starts, injuries, and a miscalculation on personnel in the rotation, along with no contribution at all from a former All Star 2nd baseman, that's put them in holes too deep to climb out of. They have to find a way to start stronger next year.

[JohnBriggs12]

5-4 in the last 9 against the top teams in the division. 4 of 6 on the road against the Reds and Pirates. Two rookies have made their mark replacing Braun and Weeks. They had breakout players in place at SS, CF, and C. There's a lot to like about this team.

 

Last year it was bullpen woes early. This year it was slow starts and injuries in the rotation, along with no contribution at all from a former All Star 2nd baseman both years that's put them in holes too deep to climb out of. They have to find a way to start stronger next year.

[fondybrewfan]

I am feeling more confident in the team next year but we also have to realize that the Brewers play in a really tough division. The Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates are probably going to be good for the foreseeable future. The Brewers may improve substantially next year and it might not matter.

 

I really like having Gindl/Davis play LF, Braun in RF, and Hart/Francisco at 1st. If Ramirez comes back healthy and playing well and if Segura, Gomez, and Gennet don't just fall off of a cliff I think the offense should be pretty solid. Lohse, Gallardo, Estrada, and Peralta is probably not a playoff rotation unless Gallardo rebounds and Peralta makes the leap in Year #2. Bullpens have been and will always be a crap shoot.

[JackNicholson1974]

Didnt want to start new topic, but how do we feel about the Brewers playing themselves out of a top 5-7 pick? As of today they pick 7th, but they are about 2 games out from picking about 14th.

 

Would we rather have the team stay crappy and pick 5th or pick it up and pick 15th, or worse, 16th.

[Outlander]

I would certainly rather have a top 5 pick versus a top 15 pick but the team is what it is at this point. They aren't going to make moves to better the team and I doubt they get rid of anybody after the Axford trade so I will root for the home team like always and just see where they end up.

[reillymcshane]

Didnt want to start new topic, but how do we feel about the Brewers playing themselves out of a top 5-7 pick? As of today they pick 7th, but they are about 2 games out from picking about 14th.

 

Would we rather have the team stay crappy and pick 5th or pick it up and pick 15th, or worse, 16th.

I was thinking the same thing. I love winning, and if we end the season good, it might breed a little optimism for 2014.

 

But I want the better draft pick!!!

 

Oh well.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I was thinking the same thing. I love winning, and if we end the season good, it might breed a little optimism for 2014.

 

But I want the better draft pick!!!

 

Oh well.

 

I'm 100% positive that there's no empirical evidence that optimism or momentum doesn't carry over from season to season, so I won't ask for any. With that being said, I'll never root for the Brewers to play poorly or lose, but I'd much rather see them get a top 5-7 pick than win meaningless games at this point. At this point, my hope is to see the young guys like Davis, Gennett, Gindl and such continue to play well, while not messing up the team's draft status.

[homer]

Brewers are 30 - 28 since the all star break. Not too shabby considering all the injuries (and suspension).

[pitchleague]

Brewers are 30 - 28 since the all star break. Not too shabby considering all the injuries (and suspension).

 

 

My first thought was, "They're still . . . " (you can finish the quote from "Major League")

 

I guess there's "some" optimism for next year but I'm not really going to feel it until January or so. Maybe not until spring training starts.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wahoo. A team with .500 ball upside. Let the flurry of season ticket purchasing commence.

[homer]

Wahoo. A team with .500 ball upside. Let the flurry of season ticket purchasing commence.

 

Well with Braun, a 1st baseman, and a healthy pitching staff I think it's slightly better than .500. You are free to change allegiances at any time.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wahoo. A team with .500 ball upside. Let the flurry of season ticket purchasing commence.

 

Well with Braun, a 1st baseman, and a healthy pitching staff I think it's slightly better than .500. You are free to change allegiances at any time.

Slightly better than .500? Well, that changes everything.

 

Honestly, this terrible stretch from 2012-2013 is the first time in my life I've even considered taking a break from supporting the Brewers (& it's not really about the W-L column, it's about philosophy). At this point, I'm not even considering adopting another club, but I'm completely burned out on watching this organization fail continuously. Candidly, I have no faith that Melvin can right the ship, and I genuinely question if Attanasio & his ownership group can either.

[homer]

Slightly better than .500 might make the playoffs in the AL. I think the Brewers could realistically get to 85 wins next year which could very well be worth a wild card spot.

 

Having said that, I don't believe Melvin should be GM anymore. Not sure what you have against Attanasio.

[TigerUppercut]

Slightly better than .500 might make the playoffs in the AL. I think the Brewers could realistically get to 85 wins next year which could very well be worth a wild card spot.

 

Having said that, I don't believe Melvin should be GM anymore. Not sure what you have against Attanasio.

 

And here's the thing. Very few question whether or not Attanasio is a smart, savvy, think outside of the box business guy that has long term vision. You look at the Cubs, and you see an organization that while down now, are clearly building what many of us think could be a monster. All of this with a smart, savvy, think outside of the box, long term vision President and equally adept GM. Organizations with vast resources are turning their operations over to these types understanding that paying for guys on the downside of their careers isn't the way baseball works efficiently and effectively anymore (See NYY and LAA). So as fans, we continually ask ourselves, is Melvin that smart, savvy, think outside the box, long term guy to captain the ship. Yes, maybe, no and no for me. That's definitely giving him a large benefit of the doubt, and anything less than Yes, Yes, Yes and Yes warrants at least serious thought as to organizational direction and probable change. Does Mark see it this way and, why not, if he doesn't? What's blinding him on the baseball side that isn't in the business world? It's a question worth asking, IMO.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

Honestly, this terrible stretch from 2012-2013 is the first time in my life I've even considered taking a break from supporting the Brewers (& it's not really about the W-L column, it's about philosophy). At this point, I'm not even considering adopting another club, but I'm completely burned out on watching this organization fail continuously. Candidly, I have no faith that Melvin can right the ship, and I genuinely question if Attanasio & his ownership group can either.

 

 

*Fail continuously*? C'mon, really? I get it, and don't have ANY beef with you disagreeing with the organizational philosophy, but don't you think *fail continuously* is a bit disingenuous when they're still less than 2 years removed from an NLCS appearance?

[BarneyStinston]

"Fail continuously" is not entirely accurate. Unsustainable intermittent success would probably be more accurate. The last 6 years consist of clubs with 2 winning, 2 unremarkable, and 2 losing seasons. If the roller coaster trend continues (90 win, 80 win, 70 win), then we are due for a 90 win season next year.

[igor67]

I'd quibble Barney an say that the strategy is more of Sustainable intermittent success. I understand the preference some have to attempt to stink long enough to to accumulate a mass of talent and have the best shot at winning the World Series. Even though history is not kind to the success of this philosophy (one must accept the success of Tampa along with the failure of the Nats at this strategy), it is not a terrible plan on the face of it. I can also appreciate that there is room for divergent opinions on draft and development strategy.

The rhetoric about failure and the intolerability of philosophical differences is over the top far too often. If one has a large amount of resources it is possible to build a talent pile big enough to ride out most down years with only the ultrarare anomalies (Last year's Red sox). Mid or lower resource teams using that strategy have to hope their peak talent windows coincide with average or better luck or the entire development cycle can be wasted (This years Nats, though they may have enough resources to keep things going). Even with better info and such luck factors can easily alter a teams win total by 10 in any given year. In that vein and the very random nature of the playoffs shooting for above average talent (85-88 wins) every year and grabbing playoff spots in good years, being competitive into September most years, and having the down year every once in awhile seems reasonable enough to not be worthy of venom. I categorize that as sustainable, particularly in the current environment because the over valuing of prospects makes it possible to patch holes as they emerge (aka acting on the most recent information) in a cost effective way.

[trwi7]

No team compares to Tampa right now because they constantly cycle talent once it gets old and expensive, partly because of their smarts and partly because of necessity in not being able to afford talent as they gain more service time.

 

And I don't know how you can say with any certainty that the Nats strategy has failed. They won 98 last year, are 83-71 this year and have a bunch of core players that are 28 or younger (Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Zimmerman, Desmond, Rendon, Ramos and Harper). Their situation is far better than the one we're in, of course pretty much every team is in a better situation than the Brewers.

[BarneyStinston]

The reason I choose unsustainable success is because, for the most part, particular key players have been unable to produce consistently productive seasons, including Weeks, Hart, SS, 3rd base, pitching, and so forth. Key pitchers have been either unretainable (Greinke, Sabathia) or unsustainable (Marcum, Wolf, Fiers, Hoffman, Axford). The 2 unremarkable seasons were not tremendously successful statistically either and certainly would not be put in the success category, i.e. more years of non-success than success. So we really only see a couple years of spikes, which quickly regresses for the next couple years.

[igor67]

I fully expect the Nats to have a few more good seasons, they will probably even make it look better than the Brewers did in their window because of more resources. I picked on the Nats to highlight the fact that regardless of how awesome you look on paper bad luck can still strike and has to be accounted for when trying to realistically assess how well these various strategies will work. The list of teams 'going young' is very long. Plenty long enough that there is always a new darling every year to point to if people want to justify their belief in the strategy, but the history is pretty clear that building for a window does not guarantee any kind of sustained success. If one takes a look at Oakland again they very much seem to be built around the method I'm talking about, build a solidish roster with individually good moves and catch the high point every now and again.

 

Team sustainability strikes me as more important than player sustainability. Given Melvin's documented success in trading for players, I don't see why the Brewers can't have generally competitive teams for another 5 years and grab another couple of playoff births.

[trwi7]

but the history is pretty clear that building for a window does not guarantee any kind of sustained success.

 

I'm not suggesting building for a window. After the way it worked out for us nobody should be suggesting that.

[RobertR]

but the history is pretty clear that building for a window does not guarantee any kind of sustained success.

 

I'm not suggesting building for a window. After the way it worked out for us nobody should be suggesting that.

 

Yeah, getting to the NLCS and running into a red hot Cardinal team was such a bummer of a year. Just unwatchable.

 

The Brewers had a nice run. The problem wasn't the strategy. The problem was that they didn't draft well. Passing on Homer Bailey, for instance. And there was some bad luck, all indications were that if the draft compensation system formula wasn't screwy they would have drafted Mike Trout. Now, they didn't do either of those things, but it points to the fact that there's often a very thin line between success and failure.

 

In general, I think that this team is probably a mid- to upper- 70s win team when you factor in just getting a first baseman which is replacement level for 2014. And they were a low- 80s win team in 2012. So, their true level is probably right around .500. They've actually accumulated some pitching talent and depth at AAA too. They have All Star level talent at CF, SS, and C. Probably LF. And maybe 3B, if Ramirez is healthy in 2014, too. Gennett, Gindl, and Davis have all performed well too. Can they come up with 5 to 8 more wins in 2014 which would vault them into contender status? I don't know, but I'd suggest that it's not that far fetched.

 

I wouldn't say all is rosy, but there certainly is the possibility of a quick turnaround if they're not so snakebit in 2014. And we shouldn't completely dismiss the idea that sometimes being just ok pans out. The Cardinals won a World Series winning only 83 games in the regular season and having guys like Jeff Suppan get hot in the post-season. There have been several Wild Card teams that have advanced all the way.

 

Maybe the Brewers have hit rock bottom, maybe not. But, let's also be mindful that the complete teardown doesn't always work either. The Cubs are relying on Castro and Rizzo to be veteran stars and mentors when their young talent comes up, and that might not work out. The Pirates spent decades in the wilderness. The Mets aren't making much progress. Neither are the Padres despite having scouts rave about their farm system not that long ago. The lack of minor league development seems to be catching up to the Giants. How many years have the Rockies been trying to figure out how to develop pitching? Drafting late hasn't stopped the Cardinals and Braves from developing strong minor league pipelines.

[trwi7]

Hardy

Weeks

Fielder

Braun

Gallardo

 

All were up at around the same time and we got 2 playoff appearances in 6 years and 1 series win. That's not exactly a sterling record of success.