Starting to feel a little optimism for 2014

[paul253]

The fact is that the Brewers are going to have to build through the draft to be successful year in year out. The more picks we have, and the higher those picks are, the better chance we have of hitting on someone. Yeah there is a chance that that second round pick is going to fail. but it's a chance we have to take. The Brewers are not a franchise that can continue to rely on expensive free agents to solve their problems.

 

Beside, who is this expensive free agent we are going to sign? The free agent market seems underwhelming this year.

[MNBrew]

The fact is that the Brewers are going to have to build through the draft to be successful year in year out. The more picks we have, and the higher those picks are, the better chance we have of hitting on someone. Yeah there is a chance that that second round pick is going to fail. but it's a chance we have to take. The Brewers are not a franchise that can continue to rely on expensive free agents to solve their problems.

 

Beside, who is this expensive free agent we are going to sign? The free agent market seems underwhelming this year.

The point wasn't with a certain FA in mind. The point was, hypothetically, if they could get another Lohse-type player, it might just possibly be worth surrendering their 2nd round pick to sign him.

 

The likelihood that the right guy is there, the asking price is do-able, and that the Brewers are actually the team he's negotiating with -- all the necessary precursors for this scenario to go from hypothetical to real -- seems slim. That said, I think it's still a question worth posing.

[logan82]

Or Wolf or Suppan or Looper.

 

Wrong. None of those guys were good enough to draw a QO from their previous team.

 

I'm not in favor of losing picks over free agents as that's no way to build the foundation others have described in detail. With that said, I'm not sure what the "hit" rate is in the 2nd round but I'd bet that it isn't above 50%. That being the case and also considering many of those that do hit are fringe starters and backups, a "mediocre" FA is a win for that pick historically.

All three of those players were signed before the Qualifying Offer system was created. I can't recall off the top of my head if any of them were classified as Type A or Type B free agents, though.

Wolf was the second best FA pitcher that year I believe. He played for LA the year before so I think he would have received a QO.

[jerichoholicninja]

I feel going into 2014 we will feel the same way we felt going into 2013 about the team. The offense will be good. The defense will be shaky. The bullpen will be a coin flip. And the team's success will come down to the rotation.

 

If Gallardo returns to his old self, if Lohse continues to pitch the way he has, if the Peralta we've seen the last month or so turns out to be the real Peralta that's a pretty good top 3 and you've probably got at least a .500 team. If Estrada stays healthy and pitches his usual solid yet unspectacular self then the team should compete for a wild card. If they can find a 5th starter, be in Thornburg or Fiers or whoever, then the NL Central becomes a 4-team race.

 

However, just like this year, it's all going to come down to the rotation.

[fondybrewfan]

I sure hope Gallardo some return to some semblance of a good pitcher. Gallardo, Lohse, and Peralta would be a pretty good top 3 and Nelson, Estrada, Thornburg, and Gorzo could fight it out for the last 2 spots. We wouldn't have a top of the line rotation but I don't think we would have any glaringly poor rotation spots either. Those guys as 4/5 pitchers would be pretty darn solid. Really it comes down to Gallardo and Peralta.

 

That being said we all know that Melvin always tries to address the percieved biggest need in the offseason. This offseason it clearly will be SP so I will not be suprised at ll if he swings a signing or trade for 1 or more starters. We don't have much in terms of prospects that would get us a really nice SP though. That is unless someone really likes our low A or rookie levels guys.

[TigerUppercut]

Knowing Melvin, making a run at Scott Kazmir for WAY too many years just makes too much sense.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

There's a lot to look forward to for the Brewers. I'm excited to see if the pitching prospects pan out. I'm expecting some growing pains. It's probably going to get ugly at some point at times, but I have hope that the young guys will be fine in the long run. The lineup, when healthy, is top 3 in baseball. Even if Hart leaves I believe it is still a top 5 lineup. I don't think Braun will be traded away. The moment he starts playing well everyone will forget about what happened. I'm just enjoying watching Peralta develop.

[JohnBriggs12]

Knowing Melvin, making a run at Scott Kazmir for WAY too many years just makes too much sense.

 

 

You have to realize Melvin is 61. His horizon isn't that far out. For him to leave a legacy here, it's going to need to happen in the next 3-4 years. I don't see a huge FA signing, but if they accumulate enough of a prospect stockpile, he's going to be looking to make an impact deal as he did with Greinke.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I can definitely see a stupid signing of a guy like Bronson Arroyo on the horizon this offseason. That'll be fun.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Until they fix the starting rotation, I'm not going to get too excited. Lohse and Peralta are the only ones pitching really well. Estrada always shows glimmers of breaking out, but I'm never going to hold my breath for him to become a top of the rotation type guy. The bullpen is a bunch of cast-offs and never has-beens that may or may not continue to perform solidly. And........we really just don't know what we have in guys like Gindl, Davis, and Gennett. Even if they all get 200 - 250 PA's this year, that's not enough to say "yeah, they're .800 OPS players."

 

I'm glad to see they're not overmatched (though Logan Schafer has been a big disappointment), and are producing when they get opportunities to play, but the stats they're putting up is such a small sample, I just don't think it's fair to use these numbers as predictive at this point.

 

I don't think the Brewers are anything close to contenders for 2014, but there are things to look forward to.

 

Gomez is a legitimate star. I know just about everyone and their grandma wants him traded for multiple pieces, but if anything, this tepid trade market has shown that teams just aren't dealing. Gomez is 27, and signed to a team friendly deal. He's finally 'getting it', and hopefully the Brewers can be competitive again while he's still in his able-bodied years.

 

Segura is every bit the real deal. . He's a .300 hitter and a 15-20 homer guy, with big time speed and a gold glove caliber defender.

 

Lucroy is an all star. 'Nuff said.

 

And .....Braun. With those 4, you have a very capable core of a solid, if not spectacular offense. Even with Hart missing the entire year, A-Ram being out most of the year, and Braun playing in less than 60 games, and Weeks flat out sucking, the Brewers are right in the middle of the NL in runs scored. That's a testament to Lucroy, Gomez, and Segura, mostly.

 

Peralta looked like a bust at the beginning of the year, and RRR just kept throwing him out there, and sure enough, he's been pretty dang solid for the last few months. he might not be an ace, but he's certainly a capable middle of the rotation guy.

 

I'd feel more optimistic if we had some prospects that were viewed as more than bench filler/platoon type guys. There isn't a prospect in the system right now that says 'future all star'.

 

He has a -1.2 UZR. He's not even in the vicinity of being a gold glove caliber defender. If he moves to 2B, then yes. At SS, no.

[TooLiveBrew]

I can definitely see a stupid signing of a guy like Bronson Arroyo on the horizon this offseason. That'll be fun.

Don't even joke about that. I could see it, too.

[sveumrules]

There'll be some interesting names on the free agent starting pitching market, but I don't see us signing any of the guys likely to get a QO.

 

Should be interesting to see how Halladay pitches when he's back in the bigs. I'd imagine Melvin would be interested on a one year prove you're healthy deal, though Roy will likely want to sign with a team in the Grapefruit League.

[nate82]

Lincecum would be an interesting one year contract type of a signing but I believe the Giants are going to give him a QO and if they do if I were Lincecum I would take that QO and run especially with what happened to Lohse this off season.

[torts]

Lincecum would be an interesting one year contract type of a signing but I believe the Giants are going to give him a QO and if they do if I were Lincecum I would take that QO and run especially with what happened to Lohse this off season.

 

the QO will be quiet a bit less than what Lincecum is currently making ($22 million), I dont know if he'd take THAT big of a paycut... there will be someone out there probably willing to give him more years at a slightly higher average.

[brewcrewdue80]

Where does the money to sign a FA come from? As Monty as pointed out the Brewers are staring at 92mil in commitments currently. Of course they could non-tender Axford and that will save 5+mil so then we're around 85mil. Still not a lot of wiggle room.

 

Oh, and the QO if used, I'm not sold the Brewers are going to finish with a top 10 pick anymore(so wouldn't be protected). This month on schedule looked to be their toughest month and they've essentially played .500 ball in it. They're 3games from 11th and 3.5 games from being 14th. The team needs a 12game losing streak for me to be confident in calling them a top 10 pick guarantee. This was once again something I hated the Lohse signing for because it meant the likelihood of securing a 70+win season and "BEING STUCK in th MIDDLE"!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Something Melvin Swears he doesn't want to be caught in!????? Well Great, Lohse solidified our rotation to accomplish just what you didn't want for 11/mil yr and cost the team the pick. Nothing makes sense!

 

Should I be optimistic? Not with every win the team has taking away allotment money in the drafts with each pick they wind dropping lower. The fact that news is out that Braun is approaching admitting using PED's in 2011. So how good is our former Franchise player/MVP going to be going forward? Hunter Morris isn't improving his numbers so 1b will be an issue once again. Our pitching is looking brighter but I still look at the staff as not having a single ACE. And it's reaching to say they have #2s going in to next season. Just a bunch of 3s. Nothing wrong with 3s for a season but it's not good for H2H in playoffs. See 2008/2011. And we actually had Aces those 2 years.

[reillymcshane]

My optimistic thought for 2014:

 

In 2013, here are our team ERAs by month:

 

April: 4.16 (22nd in the majors)

May: 4.91 (27th)

June: 3.44 (6th)

July: 3.63 (13th)

Aug: 3.08 (7th)

 

It's a nice thing to see the pitching come around. Are we a top pitching team? No. But we could be in the upper third if some things fall our way in 2014.

 

The big issue will be hitting. We've just been bad this year. We need some guys to seriously rebound next year (Braun, A-Ram), to go along with guys who broke out this year. Not to mention figure out 1B and 2B.

 

But if pitching can stabilize, that would be huge.

[torts]

My optimistic thought for 2014:

 

In 2013, here are our team ERAs by month:

 

April: 4.16 (22nd in the majors)

May: 4.91 (27th)

June: 3.44 (6th)

July: 3.63 (13th)

Aug: 3.08 (7th)

 

It's a nice thing to see the pitching come around. Are we a top pitching team? No. But we could be in the upper third if some things fall our way in 2014.

 

The big issue will be hitting. We've just been bad this year. We need some guys to seriously rebound next year (Braun, A-Ram), to go along with guys who broke out this year. Not to mention figure out 1B and 2B.

 

But if pitching can stabilize, that would be huge.

 

totally man! I know im excited for this winter/next season already!

[logan82]

My optimistic thought for 2014:

 

In 2013, here are our team ERAs by month:

 

April: 4.16 (22nd in the majors)

May: 4.91 (27th)

June: 3.44 (6th)

July: 3.63 (13th)

Aug: 3.08 (7th)

 

It's a nice thing to see the pitching come around. Are we a top pitching team? No. But we could be in the upper third if some things fall our way in 2014.

 

The big issue will be hitting. We've just been bad this year. We need some guys to seriously rebound next year (Braun, A-Ram), to go along with guys who broke out this year. Not to mention figure out 1B and 2B.

 

But if pitching can stabilize, that would be huge.

We have been playing against dreck since the start of June. Without some major moves we are probably still a bottom half of the league pitching staff next year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The big issue will be hitting. We've just been bad this year. We need some guys to seriously rebound next year (Braun, A-Ram), to go along with guys who broke out this year. Not to mention figure out 1B and 2B.

 

But if pitching can stabilize, that would be huge.

 

 

Calling the hitting 'bad' is a bit overstating it, I would say. Lucroy and Gomez have been very good, and despite cooling off in the 2nd half, Segura is still at a 117 OPS+. Juan Francisco has been very productive as a Brewer, and aside from Weeks, Schafer, and Betencourt, there haven't really been any offensive 'black holes'. The Brewers are 8th in the NL in runs scored, which puts them squarely in the middle of the league, which is not bad, considering Braun has missed most of the year, as has A-Ram, and Hart has been out all year.........the three guys expected to put up the biggest power numbers. Gennett, Davis, and Gindl, in their short time up, have been more than admirable fill-ins, and have helped more than hindered the offense.

 

Braun will hit next year, of that I have no doubt. A-Ram just needs to get healthy.

I'm comfortable putting Francisco over at 1B (his glove notwithstanding I suppose), and finding a RH platoon partner for him. I would be perfectly comfortable trading Aoki, and letting Gindl and/or Davis man RF. Or put Braun in RF, and put Gindl/Davis in left.

[BrewCrewForever]

Starting to think that the Brewers should maybe cut ties with Aoki, move Braun to RF and play Davis in LF. I know it is a small sample, but I really like what we have seen from Davis.

[Outlander]

Aoki's lack of hitting after his hot start is concerning so I would certainly have no problem with Davis playing next year. Good to see Davis is making the most out of his opportunity, same for Gindl when he was up here.

[reillymcshane]

The big issue will be hitting. We've just been bad this year. We need some guys to seriously rebound next year (Braun, A-Ram), to go along with guys who broke out this year. Not to mention figure out 1B and 2B.

 

But if pitching can stabilize, that would be huge.

 

 

Calling the hitting 'bad' is a bit overstating it, I would say. Lucroy and Gomez have been very good, and despite cooling off in the 2nd half, Segura is still at a 117 OPS+. Juan Francisco has been very productive as a Brewer, and aside from Weeks, Schafer, and Betencourt, there haven't really been any offensive 'black holes'. The Brewers are 8th in the NL in runs scored, which puts them squarely in the middle of the league, which is not bad, considering Braun has missed most of the year, as has A-Ram, and Hart has been out all year.........the three guys expected to put up the biggest power numbers. Gennett, Davis, and Gindl, in their short time up, have been more than admirable fill-ins, and have helped more than hindered the offense.

 

Braun will hit next year, of that I have no doubt. A-Ram just needs to get healthy.

I'm comfortable putting Francisco over at 1B (his glove notwithstanding I suppose), and finding a RH platoon partner for him. I would be perfectly comfortable trading Aoki, and letting Gindl and/or Davis man RF. Or put Braun in RF, and put Gindl/Davis in left.

 

'Bad' is probably a little harsh. The Brewers have the 20th ranked offense in baseball for runs scored. In the NL, it's dead center - 8th of 15. So 'bad' is probably not the best way to describe it. Average to below average is probably more like it.

 

I guess disappointment is probably the best word. So many guys that were supposed to be very good/great haven't shown up for various reasons. The Segura/Gomez breakouts have been sweet, however.

[LouisEly]

You can have a weak schedule for a month, but not for three months.

 

San Francisco won the World Series last year and with pretty much the exact same team has won one more game than the Brewers this year playing in a weaker division.

[logan82]

You can have a weak schedule for a month, but not for three months.

 

San Francisco won the World Series last year and with pretty much the exact same team has won one more game than the Brewers this year playing in a weaker division.

I don't know about that. June was Phillies, A's, Phillies, Marlins, Reds, Astros, Braves, Cubs, Pirates. July Nats, Reds, D-Backs, Marlins, Padres, Rockies, Cubs. August Nats, Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Reds, Cards. That is a lot of losing teams over that stretch. We just got back into playing good teams again. I would rather just look at the season stats but when people want to look at a stretch and think we are doing well the level of competition really needs to be taken into account.

[The stache]

How about the "kids" tonight?

 

Khris Davis and Scooter Gennett tonight combined: 5 for 7, a walk, 4 runs scored, 1 double, 3 home runs, 5 RBI.

 

For the season:

 

Davis: .338 AVG, 8 HR, 17 RBI .412/.730/1.141 in 74 ABs

Gennett: .330 AVG, 5 HR, 13 RBI .375/.567/.942 in 97 RBI

 

Somebody please slap me, because I am really getting excited. Small sample size, obviously, but these guys can hit in the Majors. Add in Segura, Gomez and Peralta, then mix them in with guys like Lucroy and Braun in their prime, and we've got some real hope for the future.

 

I think Francisco can be a really nice power bat, and if he can work on his defense and cut down on the strikeouts, he could have a future here.

 

Who knew we could have so much fun being 16 games under .500?