Starting to feel a little optimism for 2014

[logan82]

They are getting looks because Roenecke has nobody else to put out there. Once he does those guys will resume their role on the bench.

I used to think our manager might be good for a young team. The last month has changed my minf. I had hoped the manager would at some point play a younger guy over Yuni. We keep trotting out old "experienced" crappy guys unless there is no other choice.

[The stache]

Two home runs for Scooter Gennett and a homer from Khris Davis tonight.

 

The kids are making the most of their playing time.

[DHonks]

just curious logan, but what vet is playing over a better young guy? Aoki? Francisco?

[trwi7]

Aoki is one especially considering his OPS has dropped below .700, everytime Betancourt gets a start at 1st over someone like Davis I get pissed as well.

[Patrick425]

Braun's not getting traded....

 

would you give away a Bugatti because you threw up in it one time?

 

 

I think the better question is who's going to give you the value you desire in return for a Bugatti that wreaks of puke?

 

Remember the Seinfeld Car B.O. episode when Jerry eventually just had to leave the car on the street with the keys in it?

[logan82]

just curious logan, but what vet is playing over a better young guy? Aoki? Francisco?

Yuni.

[Funketown]

What's the bluebook on a 2005 Bugatti? If it's $500,000 and I'm offered a puke-wreaking Bugatti for $300,000, I'll most definitely buy it.

 

I am curious to know what the market would look like for Ryan Braun. I kind of suspect that some GM's wouldn't touch him but others would see a guy who is owed an average of $17 million per year for 7 years and take him on.

 

I really have no clue though. Dave Cameron didn't even know what to do with Braun in his 2013 trade values, and that was before the suspension. I'd love to hear what GM's have to say about the potential of acquiring a guy like Braun in the future.

[Patrick425]

What's the bluebook on a 2005 Bugatti? If it's $500,000 and I'm offered a puke-wreaking Bugatti for $300,000, I'll most definitely buy it.

 

I am curious to know what the market would look like for Ryan Braun. I kind of suspect that some GM's wouldn't touch him but others would see a guy who is owed an average of $17 million per year for 7 years and take him on.

 

I really have no clue though. Dave Cameron didn't even know what to do with Braun in his 2013 trade values, and that was before the suspension. I'd love to hear what GM's have to say about the potential of acquiring a guy like Braun in the future.

 

 

Yes..but would you sell it for $300,000?...that's the question. I think it would be dumb to trade him now for that reason. I think over time, if his numbers don't drop off, he stays clean, and the freshness of the "odor" perhaps dies down a bit, then he becomes more trade-able. However, what would be the point of trading him then.

 

Regardless of the stats he puts up, my belief is that most fan bases would not be very receptive to their team swinging a deal for Braun. I'm aware that others on this site disagree with that.

[torts]

so i was thinking... if the brewers manage to stay with a top 10 draft pick, but get a healthy team this offseason going into spring training... if they go after a player who received a Qualifying Offer (like Loshe), they would lose their 2nd round pick, right? They could then make up for the fact they would lose their 2nd rd top 10 pick by having a Competitive Balance pick between 1st and 2nd round, right? not saying they should/will do this, but I think its an interesting thing to think about, the fact that they're a .500 team if you get rid of May with an unhealthy team, and could get a quality player and still have that top 10 pick.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Until they fix the starting rotation, I'm not going to get too excited. Lohse and Peralta are the only ones pitching really well. Estrada always shows glimmers of breaking out, but I'm never going to hold my breath for him to become a top of the rotation type guy. The bullpen is a bunch of cast-offs and never has-beens that may or may not continue to perform solidly. And........we really just don't know what we have in guys like Gindl, Davis, and Gennett. Even if they all get 200 - 250 PA's this year, that's not enough to say "yeah, they're .800 OPS players."

 

I'm glad to see they're not overmatched (though Logan Schafer has been a big disappointment), and are producing when they get opportunities to play, but the stats they're putting up is such a small sample, I just don't think it's fair to use these numbers as predictive at this point.

 

I don't think the Brewers are anything close to contenders for 2014, but there are things to look forward to.

 

Gomez is a legitimate star. I know just about everyone and their grandma wants him traded for multiple pieces, but if anything, this tepid trade market has shown that teams just aren't dealing. Gomez is 27, and signed to a team friendly deal. He's finally 'getting it', and hopefully the Brewers can be competitive again while he's still in his able-bodied years.

 

Segura is every bit the real deal. . He's a .300 hitter and a 15-20 homer guy, with big time speed and a gold glove caliber defender.

 

Lucroy is an all star. 'Nuff said.

 

And .....Braun. With those 4, you have a very capable core of a solid, if not spectacular offense. Even with Hart missing the entire year, A-Ram being out most of the year, and Braun playing in less than 60 games, and Weeks flat out sucking, the Brewers are right in the middle of the NL in runs scored. That's a testament to Lucroy, Gomez, and Segura, mostly.

 

Peralta looked like a bust at the beginning of the year, and RRR just kept throwing him out there, and sure enough, he's been pretty dang solid for the last few months. he might not be an ace, but he's certainly a capable middle of the rotation guy.

 

I'd feel more optimistic if we had some prospects that were viewed as more than bench filler/platoon type guys. There isn't a prospect in the system right now that says 'future all star'.

[trwi7]

They could then make up for the fact they would lose their 2nd rd top 10 pick by having a Competitive Balance pick between 1st and 2nd round, right?

 

I'm not sure how having a competitive balance pick "makes up" for losing a 2nd round pick. Signing a player and losing our 2nd round pick doesn't grant us a competitive balance pick, we're just losing a 2nd round draft pick on a likely mediocre, expensive free agent.

[dlk9s]

I am curious to know what the market would look like for Ryan Braun. I kind of suspect that some GM's wouldn't touch him but others would see a guy who is owed an average of $17 million per year for 7 years and take him on.

I would think at least 75% of the teams in MLB would trade for Braun in a heartbeat and many would actually offer a decent package for him. The thing is, a "decent" package is unfortunately a PED discounted rate.

[torts]

They could then make up for the fact they would lose their 2nd rd top 10 pick by having a Competitive Balance pick between 1st and 2nd round, right?

 

I'm not sure how having a competitive balance pick "makes up" for losing a 2nd round pick. Signing a player and losing our 2nd round pick doesn't grant us a competitive balance pick, we're just losing a 2nd round draft pick on a likely mediocre, expensive free agent.

 

we've already got the comp pick between 1st and 2nd round, so if the brewers lost their 2nd rd pick for signing a player who recieved a QO, its a wash/end up with a higher signing pool with a "normal" number of draft picks.

[Funketown]

 

 

Yes..but would you sell it for $300,000?...that's the question. I think it would be dumb to trade him now for that reason. I think over time, if his numbers don't drop off, he stays clean, and the freshness of the "odor" perhaps dies down a bit, then he becomes more trade-able. However, what would be the point of trading him then.

 

Regardless of the stats he puts up, my belief is that most fan bases would not be very receptive to their team swinging a deal for Braun. I'm aware that others on this site disagree with that.

 

No, but if I were offered 475,000 I might sell it. Given that I think the PED discount package would be worth less to the Brewers than Braun, I will be shocked if they trade him in the next year or so.

[markedman5]

He has a no trade clause. I know he can waive it and allow a trade but just don't see it happening.

 

Until he restablishes himself this is a non issue.

 

He has a huge contract and would not be welcomed by other teams in the stands or the dugout......

[trwi7]

They could then make up for the fact they would lose their 2nd rd top 10 pick by having a Competitive Balance pick between 1st and 2nd round, right?

 

I'm not sure how having a competitive balance pick "makes up" for losing a 2nd round pick. Signing a player and losing our 2nd round pick doesn't grant us a competitive balance pick, we're just losing a 2nd round draft pick on a likely mediocre, expensive free agent.

 

we've already got the comp pick between 1st and 2nd round, so if the brewers lost their 2nd rd pick for signing a player who recieved a QO, its a wash/end up with a higher signing pool with a "normal" number of draft picks.

 

But you're still losing a pick. Just because you got one in the competitive balance lottery doesn't mean we should piss away a 2nd for a likely mediocre and expensive free agent.

[torts]

 

I'm not sure how having a competitive balance pick "makes up" for losing a 2nd round pick. Signing a player and losing our 2nd round pick doesn't grant us a competitive balance pick, we're just losing a 2nd round draft pick on a likely mediocre, expensive free agent.

 

we've already got the comp pick between 1st and 2nd round, so if the brewers lost their 2nd rd pick for signing a player who recieved a QO, its a wash/end up with a higher signing pool with a "normal" number of draft picks.

 

But you're still losing a pick. Just because you got one in the competitive balance lottery doesn't mean we should piss away a 2nd for a likely mediocre and expensive free agent.

 

Like Loshe?

[trwi7]

Or Wolf or Suppan or Looper.

[TigerUppercut]

Or Wolf or Suppan or Looper.

 

Wrong. None of those guys were good enough to draw a QO from their previous team.

 

I'm not in favor of losing picks over free agents as that's no way to build the foundation others have described in detail. With that said, I'm not sure what the "hit" rate is in the 2nd round but I'd bet that it isn't above 50%. That being the case and also considering many of those that do hit are fringe starters and backups, a "mediocre" FA is a win for that pick historically.

[TooLiveBrew]

Or Wolf or Suppan or Looper.

 

Wrong. None of those guys were good enough to draw a QO from their previous team.

 

I'm not in favor of losing picks over free agents as that's no way to build the foundation others have described in detail. With that said, I'm not sure what the "hit" rate is in the 2nd round but I'd bet that it isn't above 50%. That being the case and also considering many of those that do hit are fringe starters and backups, a "mediocre" FA is a win for that pick historically.

All three of those players were signed before the Qualifying Offer system was created. I can't recall off the top of my head if any of them were classified as Type A or Type B free agents, though.

[igor67]

The hit rate outside the 1st round is pretty low well below 50% and certainly worth keeping in mind when evaluating that strategy. I suspect the bigger problem will be not having enough money in the budget to sign a player who would rate that highly. That said if there was a Lohse quality starter available at the same price that might look pretty interesting.

[trwi7]

Or Wolf or Suppan or Looper.

 

Wrong. None of those guys were good enough to draw a QO from their previous team.

 

I'm not in favor of losing picks over free agents as that's no way to build the foundation others have described in detail. With that said, I'm not sure what the "hit" rate is in the 2nd round but I'd bet that it isn't above 50%. That being the case and also considering many of those that do hit are fringe starters and backups, a "mediocre" FA is a win for that pick historically.

 

It's not wrong. Chances are any free agent we sign will be mediocre and not live up to the full contract given. Let's stay away from that. Looper was awful, Wolf was awful the last year of his deal, Suppan was awful through his whole contract, Ramirez has been injured this year. Let's stay clear of free agents and keep our draft picks.

[LouisEly]

Chances are any free agent we sign will be mediocre and not live up to the full contract given

And chances are that the 2nd round draft pick will be a mediocre major league baseball player, if even that. Just like the 2nd round pick that the Brewers gave up for signing Suppan. Unbelievable that the Gods of Pitching Identification and Development, the Cardinals, could whiff on a pitcher selected in the 2nd round.

[TigerUppercut]

I was only playing devil's advocate in pointing out mediocre FA's as a win over a 2nd rounder historically.

 

With that said, in this market, I feel like dipping into free agency for anything outside the bargain bin should only be considered when we have a solid base built up at the farm level. Even then, if it isn't a move to put us over the top, I'd much rather gamble and go upside/projectability with the pick than pay way too much for a good year or two on a 3+ contract.

[trwi7]

I'll take a $1 million gamble that a 2nd round pick will develop into a productive player over a $30 million gamble that the free agent we sign is healthy and productive throughout the entire contract.