Starting to feel a little optimism for 2014

[The stache]

This has been a train wreck of a season no matter how you slice it. When you factor in that we were going with a virtually untested rotation to start the season (at least before Lohse was signed), we knew our offense would have to be lights out to keep us in the race. Not out of the question, as we had the top offense in the National League in 2012. But when the injury bug started rearing it's ugly head, things went south fast. But let's also be a little realistic here. Has any team lost it's top three home run hitters for essentially the entire next season...in baseball history? Ryan Braun led the National league with 41 bombs last year, as MVP runner up. This year, he hit 9, and because of injury (and then the suspension), he was limited to 61 games. Corey Hart hit 30 home runs last season, playing 149 games. He will miss the entire 2013 season. And Aramis Ramirez, who hit 27 homers in 2012, has 5 in 2013, playing in an injury-filled 54 games. That trio hit 98 home runs, playing in 452 games. In 2013, they have combined for 14 home runs in 115 games. There's a good chance Ramirez is out the remainder of the year so he has his best shot at being healthy next year. Not many teams can make up 84 home runs in production, especially small market teams like our Brewers. But in their absences, some young players have stepped up, and are giving me a little glimpse into what could be the future. Jean Segura is one of the most exciting young players in the game. After a short stint with the Brewers to end the 2012 season, one where he hit .264 but showed little power potential, Segura won the winter league batting title, and hit the ground running in 2013. Segura leads the National League in hits. He is hitting .310 with 12 home runs and 43 RBI, and has stolen 33 bases in 40 tries. Segura also flashes incredible defensive potential, highlighted by a rocket arm. He has all the tools, and the Brewers should do everything possible to sign him long term. He is a star in the making, and could be the face of the franchise. Carlos Gomez, after seeing his contract extended, went to the All Star game for the first time, and has the highest Wins Above Replacement number (6.4) in the National League. Though his average has dropped (in part due to some nagging injuries), he is still playing Gold Glove caliber center field. It's likely he will be the first Brewer to win the award since 1982. He hit a career high 19 home runs last season, and already has 18 in 2013 with 44 games to go. Gomez has 30 stolen bases in 36 tries, and should top his career high of 37 set last year. Only 27, Gomez will be a key part of our future. And Jonathan Lucroy, who would have been an All Star last year had it not been for a freak accident, is having another outstanding season in 2013. His average is down from his .320 mark last season (currently at .281), but he's hit a career high 16 home runs, and with 45 games to go, he has 61 RBI. Luc is also, in my opinion, underrated defensively. Lastly, though he will be 32 in January, Norichika Aoki has been a great addition since coming over from Japan. He is a consistent .280-.290 hitter, and he does not strike out (only 28 times in 491 plate appearances thus far in 2013). He has good speed, though his base stealing success rate is down significantly from 2012. He's also solid defensively in right field. At $1.5 million for 2014, he provides great value for what he will be paid.

 

We've had a chance to watch some of our young hitters, although intermittently. Khris Davis has shown some outstanding power potential. Caleb Gindl, Logan Schafer and Scooter Gennett, too, have shown they could be quality Major Leaguers. This last near-third of the season will see this foursome gaining substantially more playing time with Ryan Braun's suspension, and Rickie Weeks' season-ending hamstring injury. Additionally, expect to see Sean Halton and possibly Hunter Morris in Milwaukee with some playing time at first.

 

The bullpen is greatly improved from the unit that essentially cost us a chance at the playoffs in 2012. 30 year old Jim Henderson has been lights out in his time as our closer, converting 16 of 18 save opportunities, with a sparkling 1.88 ERA and 1.070 WHIP. Brandon Kintzler and Tom Gorzelanny should also be back in 2014.

 

What I am taking away from the recent games, however, has been some of the starting pitching I have seen. We sacrificed our first round draft pick to sign free agent Kyle Lohse at the beginning of the season, a move I initially did not like. But after a rough start, Lohse has been outstanding. In his last 13 starts, Lohse has gone 7-1 (and the Brewers 10-3 overall) with a 2.34 ERA. He's struck out 57 in 80 2/3 innings while only giving up 65 hits and walking 15 over that span, good for a 1.004 WHIP. Lohse is under contract the next two seasons. Though 34, if he can stay healthy next season, he gives us a reliable veteran in the rotation.

 

I'm most pleased by the progress I've seen from Wily Peralta. The Brewers have groomed him to be an innings eater, and the potential we have heard about for the last few years is starting to finally show. Early in the year, he looked lost. But something clicked, and over the last two months, Peralta has been outstanding. Keep in mind that at the end of May, his season ERA stood at 6.35. Since mid June, he's been one of the best starters in baseball. Over his last 12 starts (going back to June 11th), Peralta is only 4-5. But, in those 12 starts, Peralta has thrown 75 2/3 innings, allowing only 22 earned runs. That's a 2.62 ERA. He's struck out 52 against 25 walks, while allowing 58 hits. That's a 1.100 WHIP.

 

If you just look at his last ten starts, he's been absolutely dominant. Ten starts, 64 1/3 innings pitched. 15 earned runs allowed, 46 hits and 22 walks surrendered (versus 49 strikeouts, or 6.9 per 9 IP, which I expect will go up) for a WHIP of 1.058. His ERA for his last ten starts is 2.10.

 

But he's only 4-4. Why? Because over those 64 1/3 innings Wily has been on the mound for the Brewers, his own team has scored a total of 11 runs in support of him. 11 runs in 64 1/3 innings. Brewer opponents have held Milwaukee hitters to a 1.54 ERA while Wily has been on the mound. In six of those ten games, the Brewers did not score a single run while he was on the mound.

 

As it stands, Wily Peralta is only 8-12, and the baseball writers will overlook him. But we have something to hang our hats on, guys. Wily is still learning the game, and will hit bumps in the road. But he has a great chance to be the best starter we've had since Ben Sheets. We don't know what's wrong with Yovani Gallardo, but it's apparent he will be here in 2014. If he can recapture any of the success he's had the last four years, when he's averaged 15 wins with 204 strikeouts and a 3.64 ERA, we have a very solid top of the rotation. Then we start looking at Tyler Thornburg, who in 31 1/3 innings this year has a 1.72 ERA and a respectable 1.213 WHIP. We also look at Jimmy Nelson, who is 8-8 with a 3.12 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 130 innings pitched between Nashville and Huntsville.

 

I guess what I am trying to say (and being very long-winded in doing so) is that we have some things to feel optimistic about for next year. As ugly as some of the remaining games might be this season, I'm going to keep watching, and keep looking for things to get excited about. And I invite you guys to watch with me.

 

We have nowhere to go but up from here. And I think we have some good things in our future, things that make me genuinely looking forward to 2014 and beyond.

[Hitman_Hart]

I think you make some great points, and for the most part I agree with you. The key is to finish strong, maybe play spoiler and enter next year with some confidence and health.

 

[blue]Although I think that Torts should have started this thread.[/blue]

[torts]

dont you fret my pet, ive got this thread ready to start for the offseason

[JohnBriggs12]

Individually, guys like Gennett, Davis, Gindl, Francisco, Schafer, and Bianchi may not be all that impressive. But they are all decent useful pieces and sometimes the whole is greater than the sum of it's parts. I'd like to see Halton up here getting a look too. The pitching staff seems to suddenly have all kinds of depth too. Again, no clear ace, but guys that can shut down opponents at any time.

 

Whether or not Braun can be integrated back in here, is the million dollar question. He might be a better fit on a veteran team in a large market. While they sure could use that big bat, the distraction he'd cause might not make it worth it. Would someone out there take that contract? If they did move him, do you plow that money saved into a quality FA bat?

[pogokat]

Braun's not getting traded....

 

would you give away a Bugatti because you threw up in it one time?

[Funketown]

If the team stays remotely healthy with Corey Hart on a 1-year/$7 million deal, how about a lineup (with Zips slash and wRC+)

 

Segura .291/.333/.426/108

Lucroy .276/.328/.445/112

Braun .301/.371/.531/147

Ramirez .278/.343/.477/126

Hart .276.334/.491/117 (career line, too lazy to look up Zips)

Gomez .266/.317/.463/113

Aoki .285/.342/.383/102

Weeks? .238/.331/.415/108 (This obviously seems way too optimistic, sadly I think the injuries have done him in)

P

 

That lineup can score some runs. Obviously 2B will be a weak spot; a Gennett/Weeks soft platoon is probably the answer there if they don't sign a FA and Weeks doesn't magically start hitting next season. Either way it won't be a strong defensive platoon.

 

There are a lot of injury concerns there with Ramirez and Hart, potentially Braun as well. But if they stay healthy, that team will score a lot of runs.

 

Pitching...not so good.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think Weeks will ever play another game in a Brewer uniform. Brewers will find a team that will take him after the Brewers agree to pay $8 million of his deal next year. The platoon there next year will be Gennett/Bianchi.

 

This is now clearly Gomez' and Lucroy's team. They are the leaders. The torch has been passed. Those are the guys the Brewer brass wants their young players looking up to and rightfully so.

 

Braun will be a huge distraction here as long as he remains. That's detrimental to the franchise, and will affect a young team. I don't care how good he still may be, he needs to be elsewhere. Maybe he'll need to stick around a while to prove to other teams he can still be a top player and bring a better return. But the Braun trade watch will not go away.

[torts]

he will never be elsewhere, so might as well not bother thinking/wishing/hoping for that to happen john. sorry to burst your bubble

[chadomac]

I think you underestimate the short memory of the general public, Briggs. If Braun comes back with a strong start in April, most people are just going to forgive and forget about what happened. Some people may even cheer for him on Opening Day.

 

People love a comeback story and they have a real short attention span. He may be on the DL more than he was before, but Milwaukee is going to forgive him if he continues to produce. That may be hard for some people to see right now because it's a ways away and emotions are still fresh and running high, but I really do believe it's going to happen.

[Outlander]

Regarding Braun and 2014 I don't doubt he will hear boos on opening day but once everybody gets that out of their system they will continue to cheer as long as he continues to produce and provides optimism to the fans. On the other hand if he struggles, I'll leave that to the not optimistic for 2014 thread.

 

To continue on the 2014 optimism it looks like Peralta could be an ace and he is under team control for another five seasons. I am also rather optimistic that Gallardo will return to form and just needed to give his arm a rest. Lohse is also a much better pitcher than I thought so maybe the starting pitching won't be as bad next year as some dread. The team also seems to have a number of young, cheap and talented bullpen arms.

 

Also no Yuni in 2014.

[BrewCrewForever]

Braun's not getting traded....

 

would you give away a Bugatti because you threw up in it one time?

 

This is sig worthy, fantastic and so true.

[chadomac]

The scary thing about next year is that we are probably going to end up relying on more young pitching next year... it's just that it'll be different players than we were relying on this year.

 

Instead of relying on Estrada, Fiers, and Rogers we'll be relying on Hellwig, Thornburg, and Nelson. It didn't work out this year, it's likely not to work out again next year. I'd feel better if they brought in a top tier starter and only left the 5 pitcher open to the young guys... but I don't know how they're going to acquire said starter.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think you guys are wrong. Time will tell. I'm not the only one advocating he be traded. It's 50-50 in a JS poll this morning. Sure some will cheer, but many will boo too. The fact is this team in this market doesn't need the drama. Not with a lot of younger players around. I think right now the clubhouse is glad he's not there. As for short memories, teams will want him and will inquire. Their fans didn't get made to look like fools backing him.

[JohnBriggs12]

The scary thing about next year is that we are probably going to end up relying on more young pitching next year... it's just that it'll be different players than we were relying on this year.

 

Instead of relying on Estrada, Fiers, and Rogers we'll be relying on Hellwig, Thornburg, and Nelson. It didn't work out this year, it's likely not to work out again next year. I'd feel better if they brought in a top tier starter and only left the 5 pitcher open to the young guys... but I don't know how they're going to acquire said starter.

 

They aren't trading Lohse. They'll likely start the year with Lohse, Gorzelanny, either Estrada or Gallardo, Peralta, and one of Thornburg, Nelson, Hellweg, Burgos or even Narveson who'll I think will be in camp as a NRI in case none of the latter 4 look ready in spring. They'll see what the market is for Gallardo. But it's not a given he won't be back. Estrada is another guy who could garner some interest. But they won't deal both.

[chadomac]

I don't think they'll deal either one, actually. But I don't like the sound of relying on an aging Lohse, a Gallardo that looks like a 4/5 starter this year, and an inconsistent and young Peralta along with a bunch of other question marks at the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation.

 

Adding a guy that we could count on for a 3.5ish ERA (like Gallardo was up until this year) would make me feel a lot better. But like I said, where's he gonna come from?

[igor67]

Getting a lot of those guys experience this year could be an asset for the next few years, no there wasn't a lot of star power in the group but a lot of guys who could be useful. Whether it is legitimately difficult to get over the hump or caused by bad luck in small sample sizes those types of players seem to have a higher degree of difficulty catching on. Now they can be used more in their intended role as complements with more of the star power coming back. Is that enough for optimism? I'll stick with my 20% playoff chance from earlier posts. They ought to be interesting. And the up the middle group of players is fun to watch. Peralta has ups and downs, but he looks like he will be a useful pitcher for awhile.

[torts]

i'd like to say that Peralta has been pretty consistant since the end of May. 3.11 ERA over 15 starts, a 2.06 ERA in the last 8. he's had far more ups than downs in the last two and a half months.

[Thurston Fluff]

The scary thing about next year is that we are probably going to end up relying on more young pitching next year... it's just that it'll be different players than we were relying on this year.

 

Instead of relying on Estrada, Fiers, and Rogers we'll be relying on Hellwig, Thornburg, and Nelson. It didn't work out this year, it's likely not to work out again next year. I'd feel better if they brought in a top tier starter and only left the 5 pitcher open to the young guys... but I don't know how they're going to acquire said starter.

 

I don't get this at all. Every starter we have is going to be back next season. All 11 of them. Why would they be relying on anyone other than those same guys with one more year of experience under their belt?

[gregmag]

We all feel good, I think, about c, ss, cf, and rf. I'm assuming Braun will be back in lf, playing at his usual superstar level. We appear to have very good outfield depth with Schafer, Khris Davis, and Gindl.

 

Other than ss, though, the infield is unpredictable offensively. We could be fine. I think we'll see a Rickie-Scooter soft platoon at 2b, and that has a decent chance of working out. But the corners are tough. If Aramis plays, we'll be okay at 3b; but if not, that position could really suck up some runs. If Taylor Green is back and healthy, he could be a pretty important guy. We're almost bound to improve at 1b, whichever of three or four different ways we go. Infield depth could be an issue. I like Bianchi as a utility guy, but if he has to start for long stretches, it could be a problem.

 

The bullpen . . . who knows. I see no reason to be any more confident in Henderson than in Axford after his good year, but maybe he'll keep it up. Most of the other guys this year have been solid, but we've seen the mother of all random fluctuations over the past two years. At this point, I'm completely flummoxed.

 

Which brings us back to the rotation. I think Gallardo will pitch better than he has this year; I suspect Peralta will pitch better overall. Lohse shouldn't fall off too badly. So . . . Estrada, Narveson, Gorzellany, Thornburg, Nelson, Hand, Hellweg. Who do you slot in? If everything breaks right, we could have one of those rotations with a #2, three #3s, and a #4. That will keep us in games, but it may not be enough to contend.

 

We have a ton of credible bodies, and Briggs may be right that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. If we have even a near-normal year health-wise, we have a shot at being good. But that's a huge "if," and figuring out which bodies to run out there is not something I'm happy to have DM and RR doing. It's a very strange moment, and I have a hard time figuring out what I think we should do.

[Roderick]

Braun will be a huge distraction here as long as he remains. That's detrimental to the franchise, and will affect a young team. I don't care how good he still may be, he needs to be elsewhere. Maybe he'll need to stick around a while to prove to other teams he can still be a top player and bring a better return. But the Braun trade watch will not go away.

 

I'm not saying Braun won't get traded. But if he isn't traded before spring camp, I don't see the Brewers trading him at all (or within the next few years).

[reillymcshane]

I think it's crazy to think Braun is going to get traded before next season. What team wants to take on a $20 million/year pariah? And just as important, no one knows what kind of player he's going to be in 2014 and beyond. For all anyone knows he's been using PEDs like candy for 10+ years.

 

No team needs the distraction of a Braun circus. Milwaukee is on the hook for the guy. Time might soothe some of the emotion surrounding the guy, but it's going to be a while.

 

This isn't like the Melky, who got a $16 million commitment over two years. This is $120 million.

 

I guess the team could trade Braun by paying some insane portion of his salary - say half. But I don't see them eating $60+ million just to get rid of a distraction.

 

Braun could get dealt down the road - after the controversy has died down somewhat, and if he shows he's still a great player. Showing some humility and honesty wouldn't hurt either. But nothing is going to happen for a while.

[logan82]

I can't wait till Braun's production starts to decline(because of age) and it gets blamed on him now being"clean."

 

I remember how it looked at the end of last year. Seemed like we had a few good young pitchers then. Still not optimistic about next year.

[paul253]

I'm not optimistic at all about next year because I'd bet my left thumb that the every day lineup at the beginning of 2014 is going to be the exact same as it was supposed to be this year. 1B Hart 2B Weeks SS Segura 3B Ramirez LF Braun CF Gomez RF Aoki C Lucroy. I think we are going to be relying on a lot of older players who won't be able to stay healthy and/or won't produce. The rotation will still be an issue. We will have to hope Gallardo pitches better and Lohse doesn't fall off. We will have to hope Peralta can maintain his consistency. Then despite having younger, higher ceiling options like Nelson, Thornburg, and Hellweg, our rotation will have Marco Estrada and Tom Gorzelany in it.

 

I'm not optimistic about next year because I don't think DM and MA believe this year's team is a bad team. I think they believe they are just unlucky. Gindl, Schafer, Davis and Gennett are not getting looks this year with the hope they can contribute next season. They are getting looks because Roenecke has nobody else to put out there. Once he does those guys will resume their role on the bench.

[trwi7]

The key is to finish strong, maybe play spoiler and enter next year with some confidence

 

[sarcasm]That helped last year.[/sarcasm]

[paul253]

The teams the Brewers have played since Braun got suspended are something like a combined 58 games under .500. Now that we are playing teams like Texas, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh we'll see if this team is actually any better.