First Base in 2014

[JohnBriggs12]

I actually wouldn't have a problem signing Hart to a one year deal and then flipping him at the deadline.

 

 

So in the meantime, you'll pay him 3-4 mil for the first half of the year so you can flip him for .....what? If he was already under contract, I could see this scenario, but I can't see paying the guy what he'll likely get for the express stated purpose of turning him around for a prospect.

 

The Cubs have been doing that with pitchers ever since Theo got there. What's wrong with that strategy? I'd say the Brewers have a fighting chance to still be in it in July too....meanwhile....Sean Halton is certainly trying to make a case.

[The stache]

Halton is showing some nice power. We've got some options now, with Halton and Morris.

[homer]

I actually wouldn't have a problem signing Hart to a one year deal and then flipping him at the deadline.

 

 

So in the meantime, you'll pay him 3-4 mil for the first half of the year so you can flip him for .....what? If he was already under contract, I could see this scenario, but I can't see paying the guy what he'll likely get for the express stated purpose of turning him around for a prospect.

 

 

Well it's not the only option but I wouldn't have a problem with it. It's not my money.

[RobertR]

If Hart's healthy, and I'll leave that up to the doctors to decide , I don't see what's so bad about having Hart at first base at a cheap price. They'll win more games that way than most other options. If that's not enough to get them over the hump, trade him and move on.

 

The Brewers may spend $3 to $4 million on a reliever on a one year deal while that's too much for a starting first baseman? One that's clearly better than internal options.

 

The way that some people talk about Hart you'd think he's a bum, rather than a solid first baseman. The Brewers are likely to finish in the mid-70s for wins. A year from Hart compared to the bums that have played the position is probably worth 4 to 5 wins which would have pushed the team to around 80 wins. I think there's a good case to be made that Hart is undervalued and on a one year deal he doesn't block anyone that you'd really want to commit to long term.

[Roderick]

The Brewers may spend $3 to $4 million on a reliever on a one year deal while that's too much for a starting first baseman? One that's clearly better than internal options.

 

If you are saying Hart is only going to cost $4M to sign for the whole year, sure I can get behind that. If you are saying that will be what the Brewers pay until they trade him, then I have a problem. I'd say the chances that he is injured or nonproductive are over 50%, which means you are going to eat the full contract.

 

I don't assume Hart is better (and definitely not clearly better) than out internal options. The only problem is making sure that RR knows who the best internal options is/are. He was playing Yuni against the contending teams in a pennant chase, because RR feels he is our best 1B. Arghhh.

 

I would go into training camp assuming that 1B will be a platoon of Halton and Gamel/Green/Morris/Francisco (if he won't get much in arby) and see how things play out.

[TooLiveBrew]

The way that some people talk about Hart you'd think he's a bum, rather than a solid first baseman.

What posts on here paint him in this light? Just because people prefer to not re-sign him doesn't mean they also don't value him.

 

If the Brewers believe that Hunter Morris will become anything at all at the big-league level, they shouldn't block him with Hart. However, if Morris isn't in the long-term plans, then I guess I don't have a problem with him being re-signed on the kind of team-friendly/incentive-laden deal Corey hinted he'd be willing to accept.

[Outlander]

If the Brewers believe that Hunter Morris will become anything at all at the big-league level, they shouldn't block him with Hart.

Those two things are not mutually exclusive, and signing Hart is not blocking Morris. I'm fine with the Brewers letting Morris prove something in AAA next year and having Hart start at first and if they are out of it trading Hart and letting Morris take his place if Morris is playing better. Morris will only be 25 during the 2014 season.

 

I am also fine with a Halton/Gamel platoon if they want to give Morris more time in AAA and save some money. Either way, just because Morris isn't the opening day 1B does not necessarily mean the Brewers have given up on him.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Who said Hart was a bum? I actually said I liked Hart. I just don't see re-signing him now, when there's cheaper in-house options during a time when the team is almost certainly not going to contend.

 

The popular notion is that Hart will re-sign for 5-ish million. We don't know that. He might ask for 10, and he's on the wrong side of 30, with bad knees. I never said the guy was a bum.....just that he doesn't appear to fit the long term plans of this club. And if he doesn't fit the long term plans, what's the point of signing him to a one year deal to push the team to 78 wins instead of 73, when the team COULD be using those at bats to see if Halton or Morris could be a future player? Even if you put the odds at 10% that either of those guys can give you an .800-ish OPS over a full season, and become a fixture at 1B, there's almost zero chance that Hart is a long-term option there.

[bork]

The payroll is already over $90 million for next year, are they really going to push it close to $100 million?. And Hart hasn't made less than $5 million since 2010. Is he really going to take a 50% paycut to stay?

[Outlander]

Is he really going to take a 50% paycut to stay?

Perhaps, because a counter to that is he really going to take a 50% paycut somewhere else that his family is not familiar with? I'm just not seeing him getting a multi year deal at this point.

[torts]

The payroll is already over $90 million for next year, are they really going to push it close to $100 million?. And Hart hasn't made less than $5 million since 2010. Is he really going to take a 50% paycut to stay?

 

yes, currently its at $90 million for next season, but come april 1st, it wont be. there will be moves made to lower payroll

[xisxisxis]

I doubt Hart gets a multiyear contract from anybody. So he's going to want to sign where he is guaranteed either to start or have a great chance at being the starting 1B. I think to him $ won't matter at all because he needs to play as much as he can next year so he can enter the FA market in 2014 and have a decent shot at a good multiyear deal. If Milwaukee hands him the 1B job I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a 50% cut.

[torts]

I doubt Hart gets a multiyear contract from anybody. So he's going to want to sign where he is guaranteed either to start or have a great chance at being the starting 1B. I think to him $ won't matter at all because he needs to play as much as he can next year so he can enter the FA market in 2014 and have a decent shot at a good multiyear deal. If Milwaukee hands him the 1B job I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a 50% cut.

 

heck, i'd be surprised if they gave him 50%, I feel like they'll offer him a good bit less, like a $1 - 2 mil contract with tons of incentives based on games played/yaddayadda like Liriano got with the Buccos this year.

[Bombers]

I doubt Hart gets a multiyear contract from anybody. So he's going to want to sign where he is guaranteed either to start or have a great chance at being the starting 1B. I think to him $ won't matter at all because he needs to play as much as he can next year so he can enter the FA market in 2014 and have a decent shot at a good multiyear deal. If Milwaukee hands him the 1B job I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a 50% cut.

 

heck, i'd be surprised if they gave him 50%, I feel like they'll offer him a good bit less, like a $1 - 2 mil contract with tons of incentives based on games played/yaddayadda like Liriano got with the Buccos this year.

 

As a comparative Kendrys Morales, received the same salary ~3 mil in 2012 as he had in 2011. Even though he missed all of 2011. (I understand that was during his arby years.) I don't expect Hart's salary to stay at $10 mil, but I doubt it drops to the 1-2 range. IMO.

 

Regardless, I just don't see Hart as in the Brewers plans. I think between Braun, Davis, Halton, Morris, and yes even Gamel, you should be able to find a LF / 1B combo. I just don't see a team trying to cut payroll, signing a player for $X amount when they have other internal options to figure out. In the end, it is dissapointing if Corey walks and we get nothing, but at this point I think it is inevitable. Just my opinion.

[burnzy24]

http://www.foxsportswisconsin.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/story/Corey-Hart-says-he-owes-Brewers-would-ta?blockID=941759&feedID=5059

 

Hart says he owes the Brewers and would take a paycut to stay here. He said he would be "very generous."

[reillymcshane]

Brewers are sitting right at $90 million for next season if you include buyouts:

 

Lohse: $11.0 million

Weeks: 12.0

Ramirez: 16.0

Braun: 11.0

Gallardo: 11.5

Gomez: 7.0

Gorzelanny: 2.95

Lucroy: 2.1

Aoki: 1.5 (this might be higher - he has some escalator clauses in his contract)

Estrada: 2.5 (arby eligible, he made $1.955 million in 2013)

Badenhop: 2.0 (arby eligible, he made $1.55 million in 2013)

11 players: $78.25 million

14 players @ $500,000 = $7.0 million

 

TOTAL: $85.25 million

 

Plus, A-Ram is due a $4 million buyout if his contract isn't picked up for 2015. Also, there's a $1 million buyout for Weeks. If those are included in 2014 salary, we are looking at $90.25 million. Plus, injuries usually means we have to add a couple of million in salary during the course of the year.

 

This assumes that Gonzalez, Hart and Yuni leave as free agents.

 

This assumes that Gamel and Francisco are not kept. Otherwise, both are arby eligible for the first time. But neither would make that much if kept.

 

We could save a little money by non tendering Badenhop.

 

We could try and trade Weeks, but we'd likely still end up paying 90% of his salary (unless we took a bad contract back).

 

Bottom line: Short of trading a big money player who we don't have to kick in a ton of money on, like Lohse or Yo, we probably won't have a lot of wiggle room if our spending doesn't increase. We're relying on a ton of young guys as it is.

 

If the team pushed the $4 million buyout for A-Ram and Weeks into 2015, we could probably add a modestly priced player (Hart would probably fit this bill).

[reillymcshane]

http://www.foxsportswisconsin.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/story/Corey-Hart-says-he-owes-Brewers-would-ta?blockID=941759&feedID=5059

 

Hart says he owes the Brewers and would take a paycut to stay here. He said he would be "very generous."

Nice to hear Hart wants to be here. Even if it doesn't work, you have to appreciate the sentiment. He'd be smart to try and get back with Milwaukee - even for a year. Pressure would be minimal here. He knows the job is his. He could go out and try and have a good year, and sign one last decent contract after that.

[RobertR]

Who said Hart was a bum? I actually said I liked Hart. I just don't see re-signing him now, when there's cheaper in-house options during a time when the team is almost certainly not going to contend.

 

The popular notion is that Hart will re-sign for 5-ish million. We don't know that. He might ask for 10, and he's on the wrong side of 30, with bad knees. I never said the guy was a bum.....just that he doesn't appear to fit the long term plans of this club. And if he doesn't fit the long term plans, what's the point of signing him to a one year deal to push the team to 78 wins instead of 73, when the team COULD be using those at bats to see if Halton or Morris could be a future player? Even if you put the odds at 10% that either of those guys can give you an .800-ish OPS over a full season, and become a fixture at 1B, there's almost zero chance that Hart is a long-term option there.

 

Who says the team is aiming for 78 wins in 2014 and not 88 wins? The Brewers are likely to win more than 73 games this year with a ton of things that went wrong. Why do they project worse for 2014?

 

There's a lot of pessimism for a team that seems to have straightened out the rotation quite a bit by getting young guys with actual stuff experience and is potentially getting back its two best hitters in Braun and Ramirez for 2014. And shouldn't have a black hole at first base.

 

Which isn't to say that there aren't age and injury concerns, but I have a lot more confidence in Thornburg, Peralta with a year under his belt, Nelson, and Hellweg, than I ever did in Fiers, Rodgers, Burgos, and essentially a rookie Peralta.

 

And, seriously, I don't see how anyone can claim Morris, with a .767 OPS in a hitters league, is any sort of known quantity for 2014. Or Halton either, not to excuse a boneheaded refusal to play him by the manager. They wouldn't be getting any playing time on merit in 2014, only on potential, and I'm not sure their potential is all that great. In any event, I'm all for Morris forcing the issue through performance. He hasn't to date. A lot of teams wouldn't even consider handing a job to him after 2013. Why do the Brewers need to aim low?

 

Nobody is ever blocked on a one year contract. If Hart wants to take a paycut and the Doctors say that the risk in minimal, I don't know how anyone can claim that people that have never performed at the MLB level (Gamel), have done relatively little in a cup of coffee without really superior minor league numbers (Halton), or are coming off a year where they scuffled in AAA (Morris), are superior options to anyone you can pick off the street. Travis Ishikawa might be a better option than them in all seriousness. You probably can pencil in Ishikawa and a .760 OPS as replacement level.

 

Maybe you can get more bang for your buck elsewhere, but they're not cutting Morris from the franchise and if his play warrants it and Hart doesn't perform, you can call him up. Otherwise, it's not my money but I don't see how a one year contract is ever a long term setback for a franchise.

 

We all like to remember how the A's cobbled together a team on a budget. One of the things they did was give guys like Matt Stairs and Bartolo Colon opportunities to prove they had gas left in the tank. If Hart wants to do that at a reasonable price, it very well may be the best thing for the team.

 

And if he wants a multi-year deal, sayonara.

[paul253]

Don't worry Juan Francisco will be our first basemen. Forget the fact that he'll bat .210 while striking out every other at bat and playing little league level defense. He's got good power and that's all that matters right Ron and Doug?

[monty57]

Reilly, thanks for summing up the payroll. I doubt they'll have 14 pre-arby guys on the roster making league minimum, so even though getting rid of Axford helped the 2014 payroll, I still don't see how they'll be under a mid-$90MM's payroll next year. More likely, they'll be pushing $100MM.

 

Since Weeks and Ramirez have zero trade value, Lohse couldn't bring back "the equivalent of the first rounder they gave up" mid-season this year, and no one wanted Gallardo, it would appear that Milwaukee is pretty much stuck with the payroll to which they've obligated themselves, which is why I think Attanasio has been steering the team based on what will sell tickets. From Attanasio's perspective, a significant drop in revenue (ticket sales and the revenue attached to it like parking and concessions) mixed with high fixed costs would lead to a huge monetary loss. Hart is a guy the Brewer fans know, so I could see Attanasio re-signing him even if it's not the best "baseball move," or even if it's not in the best long-term interest of the franchise, because it will help sell tickets. It's a risk, but one Attanasio seems willing to take, as it's the same concept as signing Lohse this past offseason.

 

The "bright side" is that a lot of salary falls off the books after 2014, which is why for a couple of years now I've targeted 2015 as the year they should have been building toward. Signing Hart won't help with this, as his playing everyday at 1B would preclude someone else from playing there and seeing how they performed. So, I don't think signing Hart is the best move for them, but I think there's a good chance that it will happen, and I think the reason is not to win games, but to sell tickets/generate revenue.

[reillymcshane]

I think the team will re-sign Hart.

 

The Brewers had the top scoring offense in 2012. They'll look to recapture that with the return of Braun, Hart and A-Ram.

 

As for pitching, they'll bank on Lohse to stay solid, Yo rebounding, Estrada putting together a full season of decent play, Peralta to get better, and the bullpen to stay very good. They'll then hope one of our young pitchers, such as Thornburg, can hold down the back end of the rotation.

 

So, essentially, we'll go for it again. Just like this year. And hope we don't have key injuries, suspensions or guys declining too much from age.

 

Couple of issues: first, unlike 2012, we don't get to beat up on Houston all season. I think that padded a lot of stats in the past. Second, it relies on so many things going well. That just doesn't happen very often. It's not impossible, but it's unlikely.

 

I think Mark A. will convince himself we are good enough, and resigning Hart will help. It will be a good PR move, something he likes.

[TURBO]

Hart is not going to come cheap, that is the problem I have in signing him, even to a one year deal. If he really wants to be here, and will play for 3 to 4 million, why not, but anymore than that and I don't see him being worth it.

 

Monty, do you really think a guy like Hart will sell tickets? He hasn't played for a year, I don't think he will be a draw for next season just because he is Corey Hart. I don't think that signing Hart for next season will specifically sell one single ticket...

[RockCoCougars]

It seems like an incentive laden deal with a mutual option would be the way to go with Hart.

[paul253]

Hart is not going to come cheap, that is the problem I have in signing him, even to a one year deal.

 

As if on cue: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/corey-hart-would-be-very-generous-to-remain-with-brewers-b99102049z1-224489271.html

[JohnBriggs12]

Hart is not going to come cheap, that is the problem I have in signing him, even to a one year deal.

 

As if on cue: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/corey-hart-would-be-very-generous-to-remain-with-brewers-b99102049z1-224489271.html

 

 

Sometimes the players definition of cheap is a lot more than the team's. Hart may think $8-9 million as a base is cheap. I think he will be back with a low base and large incentives. But, and this is a big but, if he's not producing anywhere near his career norms by mid season, and potential internal replacements Halton and Morris are raking in AAA, I don't think they'll hold on to him and allow the incentives to kick in.