First Base in 2014

[DHonks]

I think I'd consider next year a season of Hart and Gamel sharing time at 1b for both to get healthy. Morris needs AAA. It's funny, last night my thought was "it's too bad Aoki can't play 2b, cause that could solve lots of issues." If a spot were open, I'd like a Gindl/Davis platoon. I've long been high on Gindl and bearish on Morris (at least short-term). Glad to see him getting his chance

[umphrey]

Brandon Moss or Mike Napoli, Juan Francisco as backup and Morris hanging out in AAA in case of injury or trade

[SoupTown]

Melvin is such a fixer one year too late. Aram was a fix. Bullpen this year was fixed. We seem to have seven viable first base option now. Even Lucroy now

 

Even Suppan and Lohse were fixes. Gagne was a fix

 

Doug is the least forward looking person imaginable. I am sure in 2015 the fix will be 2nd base

 

A viable forward plan would be nice. Not a backward looking plan

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't know.

THIRD BASE!

http://i.imgur.com/ERhaviJ.gif

[yoshii8]

Jose Dariel Abreu just defected from Cuba, and apparently is set to become an UFA. Would he be a guy worth paying big money for?

[torts]

Jose Dariel Abreu just defected from Cuba, and apparently is set to become an UFA. Would he be a guy worth paying big money for?

 

would love to see it happen but it wont, he's expected to get Puig type money

[JohnBriggs12]

Gamel hasn't faced a professional pitcher since May of 2012. He'll be 4 months short of his 29th birthday before he faces his next. He's never had any extended success in the major leagues. If 2014 is a throw away year, so too is 2015 and 2016. Gamel should not be part of any plan, short or long term. If he's still in the Brewer organization, it's much more likely he'll be in corner OF spot in Nashville learning to play a position that gives him the versatility to be a bench player in the majors. His chance to be an everyday major leaguer has come and gone. He'll also be getting much needed time to get his timing and mechanics down after a long, long absence.

[monty57]

I don't think Gamel can be in AAA unless the Brewers don't offer him arby and he signs as a minor league free agent. I don't think the Brewers have done him any favors over the years, so I'd guess that if they don't offer him arby, he would sign somewhere else.

 

I still think that if he can stay healthy, he can hit at the MLB level. Maybe not a star, but at least an average bat. Since I don't think the Brewers have the payroll room to sign anyone better, and since it doesn't appear that they have much confidence in Morris, I think that if Gamel is healthy, he will be offered arby and will be the first option as our opening day 1B. The big question to me is whether the Brewers are willing to bet on his health. He's already hitting arby and we've barely had a chance to see him play, as most of his MLB career has been spent on the DL.

[DHonks]

Gamel compares favorably to Overbay based on minor league production. He should hit, and hit well. People who are high on Green, Gennett, Gindl, Davis, etc, should all be high on Gamel as he's had the best production of them all

[Funketown]

I think it's a legitimate concern at this point that Gamel hasn't seen live action in what will be nearly two years next April.

[igor67]

I doubt many would be surprised if Gamel managed to have a great season, but even for guys with a major league track record 2 consecutive years off produces a lot of questions. When you combine that with Gamel having never gotten over that hump to showing he can do it in the majors it becomes a lot to keep hoping when there are other guys who have a much better chance of producing some value.

[SRB]

I don't mean to be pessimistic, but Gamel is not a MLB starter at this point. He was a passable prospect four years ago, as a third baseman, and has been pretty firmly in decline since then even ignoring his long injury absence. It is incredibly hard to be a MLB-caliber 1B, and I really can't see any scenario in which Gamel is close to average if even above replacement level. Honestly, Juan Francisco is a much better bet at this point.

[MNBrew]

As was the case going into this year, Mat Gamel is still out of options, so he's either on the Brewers or I'm guessing he'll get claimed off the waivers it'd take to get him to AAA, injury or not. Taylor Green still has 2 options left (wasn't added to 40-man until late August of '11 and was on the team through the playoffs, used his 1st option at the beginning of '12, & has been on the big-league DL all of '13), so he's more likely to end up in AAA if his bat doesn't earn him a roster spot out of ST.

 

Whether Francisco is in the picture or not, there are at least 4 viable 1B options next year not named Corey Hart: Gamel, Green, Halton, & Morris.

 

My hope is that Francisco rakes the rest of the 2nd half and has Jack Cust-like appeal as an AL bat (esp. as DH with his horrid glove!) and nets us a little something in return, possibly paired w/ a non-tender candidate type (thinking Axford in particular). Except when he's in a horrid K-rate rut, Francisco's not a bad bat to have around . . . HOWEVER, to me, he's a decade-later version of Bill Hall, who I said at the time (when he was so badly raw when he entered the bigs) doesn't belong on a contending team and who's not the type of player who should be on the Brewers if our player development process is working as it should. . . . So with 4 other capable young guys around, plus possibly Hart, I'm sure hoping Francisco's play enables Melvin to sell high (enough) on him to net a B-level pitching prospect with a live arm (or better if you could sell an AL team on him & Axford).

 

I know Hart has potentially good value in 2 or 3 good ways if he were to return (proven bat & glove, appealing/valuable trade commodity, and - in the unlikely event of '14 playoffs - a playoff-experienced veteran), which is intriguing. I wouldn't be unhappy if he returns on an affordable 1-year deal because letting him go as a FA means getting zero value in return for a solid & proven bat w/ good 1B defense to boot. But I'm almost tempted to think it's worth the risk of planting Gamel at 1B in '14 (then Green, Halton, & Morris as Plans B, C, & D) to give these young guys a chance to prove their mettle before the ship's fully sailed on some or even all of 'em.

[LouisEly]

For those who haven't noticed, Francisco has put up a .837 OPS since joining the Brewers, and his OBP is .080 higher than his BA so he isn't hacking at everything thrown at him. They have mentioned that Francisco has spent a lot of time with Narron working on his pitch selection and his swing. I'm torn if I want to bring back Hart on a one-year-deal (if they can get him at $5M or less, hoping he reverts to form and can flip him for a prospect) platooning Francisco against tough RH pitchers, or make Francisco the starter with Halton platooning against tough LHP. As much as I feel bad for Gamel and want him to succeed, I think Francisco is the better option for next year and beyond.

 

Those concerned about Francisco's defense, remember that he has played very little 1B prior to this year. Playing 1B during winter ball, and a full spring training, should help improve his defense significantly.

 

As for Abreu, he is already 26 so he'll be 27 next year, same age as Francisco. Cespedes has regressed to a .740 OPS with an OBP <.300, so I don't know that I want to invest $10M/year for 6-7 years in an unproven 27-year-old, especially since Abreu hits RH. I think I'd prefer more LH balance in the lineup with Francisco at ~$2M (arbitration guess).

[brewmann04]

Louis agree about Juan.

[chickinbrickin]

I'd cross Gamel off the list of possibilities. He hasn't played in 2 years and has a twice operated on knee? I'd also cross off Davis and Gamel. Halton is putting up numbers just as good as those 2 did in AAA and he's familiar with the position. Eventually, Aoki is going to be traded at some point, and I still contend there will be a market for Braun, maybe not this year but certainly next, and Braun is more of a PR nightmare here than he is anywhere.

 

Who ends up at first depends in my mind what they do at 3rd and 2nd. The lineup tilts right handed but if they have a lefty hitter either at 3rd (Green or Francisco) or 2nd (Gennett or someone they deal for), then they can either bring back Hart on a 1 year incentive laden deal, sign a FA like Mike Morse, or go with Halton who needs to see a lot of action in September regardless. Otherwise, they need a lefty bat there, and no not Francisco. I think he's less of a concern defensively at 3B than he is at 1B simply because he's involved in fewer plays at 3B. I'm not big on Morris. He just doesn't seem to be much of an all around hitter. I'd look into FA like Loney or Morneau too.

 

One trade idea: Weeks for Dunn. Despite his HR prowess, Sox are tired of Dunn and Alexei Ramirez. They could move Beckham to SS, and open up a spot for Weeks. A Weeks for Dunn deal would save the Sox $4 million. They need that much and more to induce a team to take Ramirez. Heck the Brewers could even throw in Francisco.

 

I don't think the Brewers are lacking options most of which should result in more typical production from the position. The right side of the infield is the area of focus.

 

Dunn doesn't give you much more than Francisco. Yes he will walk more, but not sure I would like seeing weeks traded for him. If they move weeks it should be to get younger not older IMO.

[igor67]

Not sold on Fransisco just yet, but for all the concern about offense at the position he has posted that solid line for us. His overall line for the year is a little less stellar, but what Doug has seen has been pretty worthwhile (particularly for the cost). If they become convinced that he has started to develop closer to his potential, it's kind of hard to make an argument for any of the other current options drastically out performing an .827 OPS. It's not impossible, but they all have question marks that would make projecting more than that rather optimistic. That said I still have a feeling Hart comes back as an attempt at insurance.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think cost should be a major issue. The question is whether Francisco can be a 25-30 HR guy and be able to drive in 80-85 runs. What he does over the final month and a half may or may not provide an answer. If they commit to Francisco, I don't see Hart wanting to sign here. They may have to find a lesser name or go with a guy like Halton who's really been producing at the level Gindl and Davis did at AAA.

 

Francisco's been a bit of a pleasant surprise with the bat to be sure. But that glove.

[logan82]

Anybody can drive in 80-85 runs if they bat in the middle of the order. That is why RBI is such a bad stat.

[Funketown]

Anybody can drive in 80-85 runs if they bat in the middle of the order. That is why RBI is such a bad stat.

 

I bet Yuni couldn't. Oh wait, he probably could if he hit 3rd or 4th. Clearly, this means Yuni is a good player because RBIs are representative of his exceptional abilities.

[JohnBriggs12]

Anybody can drive in 80-85 runs if they bat in the middle of the order. That is why RBI is such a bad stat.

 

Rickie Weeks can't. Mike Cameron couldn't either batting in the middle of the Brewer order despite over 20 HR. Geesh, can't you guys just get off your high horses every time RBI is mentioned? So lets do away with it being part of winning a triple crown then.

 

My point was Francisco needs to be very productive offensively to offset his poor defense. That's regardless of what stat you look at as a measurement of productivity. I just threw RBI out there. I could have just as easily said he needs to slug close to .500. That wasn't the point but thanks for jumping on it anyway.

 

Getting back to Francisco, regardless he should never start a game against a lefty. He's never hit a HR off one in more than 100 PA. So if he's the guy at 1B next year, he'll need a platoon partner.

[Funketown]

Cameron only played in 269 games in two years, and drove in 140. That's about 85 in a healthy season. But I think you're right Briggs that these discussions generally don't go anywhere, so probably not much use in hashing this one out again.

 

I agree with your general point on Francisco. He's an abysmally bad defensive 1B. Even if he puts up a .270/.330/.500 line, he won't be that valuable. Also, I doubt he can put up that type of line without a strict platoon (or even with a strict platoon). He has 101 career PA's against LHP and a .199 wOBA...He probably isn't quite that bad against LHP, but I think there's a good reason the Brewers have only let him accumulate 34 of his ~320 PA's against LHP. So keep in mind that his batting line this year already includes a sizable platoon advantage.

 

At best, Juan Francisco is a terrible defensive 1B who might be able to hit something like .270/.330/.520 in a strict platoon. I imagine that any time he's up after the 6th inning in an important position, he'll get the LOOGY treatment and need to be PH for.

 

In short, I see no reason for Juan Francisco to be penciled in as even a platooned 1B for the Brewers next season. He's just not a particularly useful player.

[Outlander]

I have been hot and cold with Francisco. When I just look at his offensive stats he certainly seems like a decent option for the lefty part of the platoon. When I see him in person though he does seem kind of lazy and real poor defensively. Maybe best case scenario he puts up a 850 OPS for the first half of next year and they are able to trade him for a prospect. They then can bring Morris up for good and control him though 2020. Along the way they hopefully can give Halton at bats to see if he can contribute at the big league level and maybe platoon with Francisco to start and Morris to end the year.

[logan82]

Anybody can drive in 80-85 runs if they bat in the middle of the order. That is why RBI is such a bad stat.

 

Rickie Weeks can't. Mike Cameron couldn't either batting in the middle of the Brewer order despite over 20 HR. Geesh, can't you guys just get off your high horses every time RBI is mentioned? So lets do away with it being part of winning a triple crown then.

 

My point was Francisco needs to be very productive offensively to offset his poor defense. That's regardless of what stat you look at as a measurement of productivity. I just threw RBI out there. I could have just as easily said he needs to slug close to .500. That wasn't the point but thanks for jumping on it anyway.

 

Getting back to Francisco, regardless he should never start a game against a lefty. He's never hit a HR off one in more than 100 PA. So if he's the guy at 1B next year, he'll need a platoon partner.

Quit bring it up like it means anything and we will.

[502 to Right]

I want Hart on a one year deal with Francisco as the 3B/1B backup and into the starter's role at 1B if Hart's knees are shot.