Axford for 2014?

[reillymcshane]

Just wondering what people thought about bringing back Axford in 2014.

 

After the terrible start, he's pitched pretty well (although not tonight).

 

You figure he'll make at least $4-5 million (he makes $5 million this year).

 

I just don't know if he's worth the hassle with his inconsistent play the last two years. He can be brilliant - then maddeningly frustrating.

[MNBrew]

He's certainly not worth a raise, and even the max 20% pay cut offer for arby-eligible guys is beyond what he's worth as a set-up guy when he has these stretches of disaster on the mound. It's one thing to give up some hits. It's a much bigger problem when he can't even find the plate.

 

It almost seems like he's becoming only truly reliable when it's "garbage time," which is hardly worthy of clutch-performer salary levels.

 

I just wish they'd made a move with him before he started crapping the bed nearly every time out again, which has pretty much killed the small amount of tradability he once actually had.

[trwi7]

Non-tender. Maybe sign for $1-2 million if he gets no other offers and wants to stay here.

[Roderick]

Non-tender. Maybe sign for $1-2 million if he gets no other offers and wants to stay here.

 

I would also non-tender, which was why I am a little cheesed off that Melvin didn't trade him in mid-July when he had value.

 

I believe some team will roll the dice and give him at least $2M for 2014. If two of Hand/Gorz/Thornburg are in the pen in 2014, we should be covered when Axford and Gonzelez are gone.

 

2+ Henderson, Kintzler, Wooten, Badenhop, Figaro/J.Sanchez/Heckathorn.

[jerichoholicninja]

No. I never was on the Axford band wagon and I'm ready for it to leave the station. The Brewers got their season and a half of success from him now it's time to move on.

[JohnBriggs12]

He's a sure non-tender. He'll get $1.5 - $2 million somewhere. It remains to be seen if Brewers would be interested. Sometimes guys re-discover it.

[Thurston Fluff]

I would also non-tender, which was why I am a little cheesed off that Melvin didn't trade him in mid-July when he had value.

 

You're assuming he had trade value. All the other teams saw what he was. A stretch of 20 some games wasn't going to make teams suddenly forget how bad he can be. I think contending teams want far more consistency then he provides.

 

I would cut him loose after this season for the very same reason. If he would suck in a game then come back the next time and be ok I could deal with it. It's the long stretches of suckitude that makes him so frustrating.

[BarneyStinston]

Axford never showed enough consistency this year or last to develop any value for other clubs. I couldn't have seen any contending club in their right mind acquiring Axford for a closer or set up role. Right now he's only somewhat decent as a middle relief guy at times, and certainly replaceable. I think he's in the twilight of his career at this point.

[umphrey]

He'll be a great reclamation project for cheap, probably not with us though. His problem is a steadily rising HR rate, so he would probably be good in the right home park.

[DHonks]

I'd definitely keep him. He's been very good outside of 2 or 3 terrible outings. People that throw 97 with big curveballs don't grow on trees. I'd try to avoid the issue of his salary by offering him a 2-year $7 million deal, with incentives on games finished. He's old enough that he might take the guaranteed money. If he hits the market, he'll sign rather quickly. relievers can have lots of variability year-to-year. He's 30-years old (lots of good years left), has a career ERA+ of 122, and has 311 K's in 255 IP.

[TooLiveBrew]

Axford never showed enough consistency this year or last to develop any value for other clubs. I couldn't have seen any contending club in their right mind acquiring Axford for a closer or set up role. Right now he's only somewhat decent as a middle relief guy at times, and certainly replaceable. I think he's in the twilight of his career at this point.

And yet K-Rod, who was downright bad in 2012 (both mechanically & in terms of stats), pitched just under 25 innings in for the Brewers this season, & returned a solid prospect from Baltimore. K-Rod has given up 4 HR in 5 IP so far with the O's.

 

Teams do strange & desperate things for bullpen arms sometimes.

[Thurston Fluff]

Axford never showed enough consistency this year or last to develop any value for other clubs. I couldn't have seen any contending club in their right mind acquiring Axford for a closer or set up role. Right now he's only somewhat decent as a middle relief guy at times, and certainly replaceable. I think he's in the twilight of his career at this point.

And yet K-Rod, who was downright bad in 2012 (both mechanically & in terms of stats), pitched just under 25 innings in for the Brewers this season, & returned a solid prospect from Baltimore. K-Rod has given up 4 HR in 5 IP so far with the O's.

 

Teams do strange & desperate things for bullpen arms sometimes.

 

Yes team sometimes do strange things. But the fact that he is still on our team pretty much sums up what teams thought of him. If Axford had any trade value at all he wouldn't be here now.

I think the problem with comparing Axford to K-Rod is K-rod had a lot longer history on his side. He essentially had one bad season his entire career and rebounded enough this season to make a team think it was just a bad season. Ax on the other hand has about two years of good play before he melted down. While he has been very good at times this season he has also been brutal for stretches. K-Rod has not had such hiccups.

[And That]

I'm not so sure that Axford gets non-tendered, unless he's non-tendered after agreeing to a new contract that cuts his pay by more than 20%. The Brewers turned him into a really good pitcher for a few years, and they may be tempted to think that they can fix him again. And as DHonks noted, Axford's arm is pretty special when he's right. Not for nothing, he has a career 3.32 ERA, with FIP/xFIP to match.

 

I, personally, would like to see him non-tendered because Axford finding his stuff again for a full season is not a gamble worth taking on a club that probably won't compete for the postseason next year. I wouldn't agree with the Brewers keeping him around on the same contract he has now, but I could see their reasoning if they do so.

[LouisEly]

Given what the Brewers got for K-Rod, and the upside that Ax has when he's "on", I think it's worth taking that gamble to see if they he can right the ship and get a decent prospect in return. Otherwise, given the limits and penalties for overspending on the draft and IFAs, there isn't much you can do with $4M to acquire young talent.

[502 to Right]

I think he will be back.

[xisxisxis]

there isn't much you can do with $4M to acquire young talent.

 

Hire the 8 best scouts in baseball. Heck, with $4M you could probably get the best 16.

 

Seriously, the brewers have some of the worst talent evaluators on the planet and leadership that has no clue how to hire good evaluators. Just throw a bunch of money at the best scouts out there and see how many you can get.

[PrinceEatMeat]

My guess is that he'll be non-tendered and then re-sign at a reasonable price. Seems like the best scenario to me. He's still a good arm for the bullpen at the right price.

[SoupTown]

I think the Brewers need to be 'tough' with all their fringe guys. Offer them small guaranteed with incentives. Then a team option for year two. If they turn that down we part ways amicably

[igor67]

The guy who scouted Segura wants his cut of that money.

[torts]

there isn't much you can do with $4M to acquire young talent.

 

Hire the 8 best scouts in baseball. Heck, with $4M you could probably get the best 16.

 

Seriously, the brewers have some of the worst talent evaluators on the planet and leadership that has no clue how to hire good evaluators. Just throw a bunch of money at the best scouts out there and see how many you can get.

 

you're a regular commenter on JSOnline, arent you?

[LouisEly]

there isn't much you can do with $4M to acquire young talent.

 

Hire the 8 best scouts in baseball. Heck, with $4M you could probably get the best 16.

 

Seriously, the brewers have some of the worst talent evaluators on the planet and leadership that has no clue how to hire good evaluators. Just throw a bunch of money at the best scouts out there and see how many you can get.

If that's the problem, then yes, and that's a good point. I'm not convinced it is scouting though; it could very well be player development (a poster in the minor league forum claims to have talked to a scout at a game who said the Brewers have talent but do a terrible job with development), or it could be drafting players who used PEDs in college/HS (which I strongly suspect), and if it is either of those then throwing money at scouts won't rectify the issue. But these are discussions for another thread.

 

I'm still in favor of bringing Axford back.