Would Seattle offer the Upton package to the Brewers for Gomez?

[fleehaw]

Last offseason, Upton rejected a trade to the Mariners that would have brought one of Walker, Hultzen, and Paxson to the D-Backs along with Franklin, Furbush, and a 4th player (Pryor).

 

Walker was the 18th rated prospect at that time, Hultzen 16th, Paxson 77th, and Franklin 52nd. Walker is currently the 4th rated prospect, Hultzen 28th, Paxson not rated, and Franklin is playing 2B for the Mariners putting up an OPS north of .800 so far.

 

Upton was under contract for his 25-27 seasons for a total of $38.5M. His career OPS is .829 with his best years to date coming in '09 and '11 where he posted an OPS of .898. Gomez is under contract for his 28-30 seasons for a total of $24M. His average OPS for the last two years is in line with Upton's career OPS with this being his best year at .892 currently.

 

Seattle still has a great need in the OF. I'd inquire about their interest in Gomez and also add in the possibility of including Aoki if the package is right.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hultzen has had shoulder problems and has only started 6 games this year so they may not be inclined to want to move Walker now and Paxton is more second tier. Now that he's hitting on the major league level, I also don't think they'd want to include Franklin.

[Raw Biz]

I'd do Walker/Franklin for Gomez for sure. But I doubt Seattle would.

[fleehaw]

Hultzen has had shoulder problems and has only started 6 games this year so they may not be inclined to want to move Walker now and Paxton is more second tier. Now that he's hitting on the major league level, I also don't think they'd want to include Franklin.

 

I agree that Franklin is someone they'd like to hang on to. They actually have a nice, young infield going with Seager, Miller, Franklin, and Smoak vs. RHP. Ultimately, I do think they'd deal Walker for the right bat, but his value has increased since last year.

 

There's also the value of the players that were to be dealt. They were Seattle's 1st and 3rd rated prospects plus two young relief pitchers that I don't really know anything about. Currently, Walker is #1, and Miller is #3 (but probably falls under the same category as Franklin).

 

Pair Walker and Furbush with one of Peterson, Pike, Taylor, or Romero and it's approximate in quality of the Upton deal. I would certainly pick up the phone and at the very least get turned down by the Mariners.

[paul253]

I honestly wonder what offer it would take for Melvin to trade Gomez. He just seems so darn intent on keeping him, despite the utter lack of pitching, that it seems like his demands for Gomez would be ridiculous.

[danzig6767]

I honestly wonder what offer it would take for Melvin to trade Gomez. He just seems so darn intent on keeping him, despite the utter lack of pitching, that it seems like his demands for Gomez would be ridiculous.

 

Gomez with his much improved hitting, elite defense, and very team friendly contract is a very valuable commodity. I sure would hope that Melvin was really choosy before making any trade vs jumping to trade Carlos just to simply trade him for pitching, even if the offer was mediocre.

 

Gomez has three years left on his very team friendly deal, not only one year. Asset management is important and acting impulsively to make a deal just to make a deal more often than not will backfire on any pro sports GM.

 

So while i'd certainly be willing to trade Carlos if i was the Brewers GM, the asking price would be pretty hefty and by no means would i rush to complete a trade unless i felt the return was in line with Gomez's overall value.

[paul253]

Gomez is definitely an improved player this season. I'm still in the "wait to see if he keeps it up" camp but yes, any trade for him should net a very good return.

 

That being said, to me it is clear as day that this team lives and dies with pitching. Since 2000 (the furthest ESPN's stats went back) the Brewers have only finished in the top half of the NL in team ERA three times. They made the playoffs two of those three years and finished .500 the other year. They have failed to develop a successful starting pitcher outside of Gallardo in all those years as well, and are unable to afford front of the rotation starting pitchers in free agency. This leads me to a fairly logical group of statements:

 

1) The Brewers need good pitching to compete

2) The Brewers cannot develop their own successful pitchers

3) The Brewers cannot afford top of the line starters in free agency

4) Therefore the Brewers need to find another way to obtain good pitchers if they are going to compete.

 

I am not saying they should give up on attempting to draft and develop starting pitching, but really the only other route to take is trading for prospects/young pitchers that develop into successful pitchers. Since pitching is such a premium it's going to take a lot to get a good, young pitcher so the Brewer's options are few and far between. Segura, though he plays a position almost as premium as pitcher and we have nobody ready to replace him. Lucroy, again, premium position that we have no replacements for. Braun, teams wouldn't touch him right now even if we did put him out there. The only other player who could net us that pitching is Gomez. While they are not yet complete MLB players, Schafer and Gindl can both play CF. Aoki could move to center field as well.

 

So really the question is this. Do you sit back and hope your young pitchers (Peralta, Nelson, Hellweg, Thornburg) develop into successful pitchers or do you make the move to go get a guy who could be that #1 pitcher?

 

I just think that people are overestimating the state of the franchise. I don't think we can keep throwing out the same ole team and hope to compete. I think we need to take some chances and go out and get those pitchers we clearly need to compete.

[danzig6767]

Paul, i'm not trying to be a jerk in saying this, but it's stating the extreme obvious that the Brewers clearly need better starting pitching and especially some quality young starters who are cheap. It's also pretty clear that both Zduriencik and now Seid so far have done a pretty miserable job at drafting quality starting pitching. That lack of drafting/developing pitching for so long has forced the team to have to either trade for starters or get it in free agency, unlike other teams who have drafted pitching much better.

 

The only other player who could net us that pitching is Gomez.

 

I said that i'd be willing to trade Carlos if i was GM, but you seem to be hell bent on seeing him be traded even if the offer is mediocre to poor overall value, so long as it's pitching. Regardless of what you think of Melvin, he didn't rise to the level of being a longtime GM and not be able to see quality young pitching is a weakness in the organization. So i'm pretty certain that if in say the offseason a team calls about Gomez offering young pitching, Doug isn't going to just cut the other guy off and immediately hang up. Where there likely could be a big difference though is that he wouldn't be in the same rush to strike a deal as you seem to be, even if the haul doesn't involve true high end arms. Then again if my memory is correct, you hated the extension for Gomez and maybe that's clouding your view of what his value should be as a trade commodity.

 

While they are not yet complete MLB players, Schafer and Gindl can both play CF. Aoki could move to center field as well.

 

Schafer certainly can handle CF defensively, but Aoki would be terrible in center given how deep he has to play because he's so poor going back on balls. Gindl isn't a centerfielder either. Sure, maybe in a spot start situation Aoki or Gindl could play CF, but as an everyday guy, both would be well below average defensively.

 

I just think that people are overestimating the state of the franchise.

 

Who exactly are all of these people that you're talking about who can't see pitching is badly needed?

 

Speaking for myself at least, i fully understand that for the Brewers to be truly competitive for a playoff berth again going forward, the starting pitching has to be significantly better and it's also going to have to include cheap young arms. Clearly obvious. That said, trading Gomez just to trade him if the return was sub-par isn't likely going to accomplish that goal anyways. There is no need to rush into taking almost any pitching offer. Any trade ever made or turned down is 100% about the details of who and for what exactly. So for me anything less than at least one elite pitching prospect along with maybe another piece or two should be what Melvin held out for if Gomez were to be traded this offseason.

[TooLiveBrew]

Who exactly are all of these people that you're talking about who can't see pitching is badly needed?

 

Speaking for myself at least, i fully understand that for the Brewers to be truly competitive for a playoff berth again going forward, the starting pitching has to be significantly better and it's also going to have to include cheap young arms. Clearly obvious. That said, trading Gomez just to trade him if the return was sub-par isn't likely going to accomplish that goal anyways. There is no need to rush into taking almost any pitching offer

Who exactly are the people who are calling for the Brewers to take 'almost any pitching offer' or trade Gomez for the sake of trading him?

[paul253]

Paul, i'm not trying to be a jerk in saying this, but it's stating the extreme obvious that the Brewers clearly need better starting pitching and especially some quality young starters who are cheap.

I'm not talking about the need for pitching. I'm talking about how exactly we are going to obtain that pitching. It may be stating the extreme obvious but it still seems like there are a lot of people who aren't willing to do what it takes to get that pitching. Melvin has basically said Carlos Gomez was untouchable. Well who else is going to get you the pitching that you need so badly? The only options would be Lucroy, Segura, and Braun, which I brought up. Or we could just continue to rely on the draft, because that has turned out so well. Melvin seems to me to be the kind of guy who is very, very loyal to his own players, sometimes to a fault. Carlos Gomez is a good player and he's having a great season. He is exactly the kind of player you are going to have to move if you want that top 25 caliber pitching prospect that is obviously what we need.

 

I said that i'd be willing to trade Carlos if i was GM, but you seem to be hell bent on seeing him be traded even if the offer is mediocre to poor overall value, so long as it's pitching

I guess that my assumption that Gomez should be able to return at least one top pitching prospect has led to me to not be specific enough about what I'd ask in return. Yes, we would have to get a top prospect in return, not just any ole pitching.

 

Regardless of what you think of Melvin, he didn't rise to the level of being a longtime GM and not be able to see quality young pitching is a weakness in the organization.

 

And regardless of what you think of Melvin his track record of trading for/signing/developing young high ceiling pitchers is absolutely terrible. I guess I don't have the same faith in him acquiring this pitching that you do because nothing he has done in his career in Milwaukee has suggested he has the ability to do so. I don't have faith that if someone comes calling and asking for Gomez he would be willing to accept a reasonable offer without demanding way too much in return and winding up with no deal at all.

Gindl could play CF, but as an everyday guy, both would be well below average defensively.

 

My assumptions were just based on the fact that Aoki was signed as a CF and Gindl has played 175 games in CF in the minors. I know there'd be a big dropoff defensively but they both have the experience to play it if need be. If Gomez is moved, Schafer would obviously get the first shot to replace him.

 

Who exactly are all of these people that you're talking about who can't see pitching is badly needed?

 

Anyone who thinks that all we need to do is "get healthy" and we'll be able to compete for a playoff spot next season.

So for me anything less than at least one elite pitching prospect along with maybe another piece or two should be what Melvin held out for if Gomez were to be traded this offseason.

 

I'm not sure I'd require "elite", (I think of top 15-20 prospect in all of baseball elite) but yes definitely high ceiling players. If I could get two pitchers with #2 potential I'd take it, even if one is a few years out.

[danzig6767]

 

And regardless of what you think of Melvin his track record of trading for/signing/developing young high ceiling pitchers is absolutely terrible. I guess I don't have the same faith in him acquiring this pitching that you do because nothing he has done in his career in Milwaukee has suggested he has the ability to do so. I don't have faith that if someone comes calling and asking for Gomez he would be willing to accept a reasonable offer without demanding way too much in return and winding up with no deal at all.

 

Hey, i won't disagree on the Brewers track record of drafting/developing starting pitching. In fact, unless some of Seid's more recent draft picks start showing real potential, one of the biggest mistakes of Melvin's tenure could end up being his hiring Seid to replace Zduriencik. That hire alone could bring down Doug more anything he's done on the pro talent level.

 

For any team in baseball, the guy hired to head the scouting and drafting of amateur talent is vitally important, but it's extra important for small market teams. A poor hire in that job can have devastating consequences and so far at least, there hasn't exactly been a lot to like about what Seid has done overall, while granting many of his picks are still quite young. His drafts have to produce some impact players for the Brewers to have any chance of prospering going forward.

 

As for Gomez, there probably is no point in arguing about him anymore. I'm with you in that he'd certainly be available if i was GM. All i'd say is that i wouldn't trade him though unless an offer was really damn good, including at least one top tier SP prospect without any injury history and another prospect or two included with with a high ceiling, but who might be say still only in A ball. Without any real details though, it's hard to say what is something Doug should move Carlos for because the top pitching prospect in one organization can be vastly different quality than for another team.

[danzig6767]

FWIW Paul, you may think i'm overstating how much value Gomez should have in any trade, but i'm not alone. Fangraphs recently did an interesting trade value piece ranking their 100 most valuable major league players based on everything from production, age, contract status, etc and they had Gomez at 33.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-trade-value-35-31/

 

Under Team Control Through 2016: $7 million, $8 million, $9 million

 

And the best decision of the year goes to Doug Melvin, for deciding to buy Gomez’s first three free agent seasons for a grand total of $24 million. Had the Brewers let him hit free agency after this kind of age-27 breakout, he’d have been looking for a $100 million deal and maybe more. Instead, they now control one of the game’s more dynamic center fielders for the price of a decent platoon player.

 

It should be noted that Gomez almost certainly won’t keep up his current level of production. His .354 BABIP is 51 points higher than his own career average prior to 2013, and while he’s an excellent defensive outfielder, he’s not going to keep running a UZR that grades him out as +20 runs better than the average center fielder. Regression is coming.

 

But even a regressed version of Carlos Gomez is still pretty terrific. ZIPS and Steamer project him as a roughly a +4 WAR player going forward, and he’s entering the years that often result in peak performance. Like Desmond, he doesn’t draw walks but does everything else well, resulting in a fantastic player even if he gets there in an unconventional manner. Toss in a contract extension that looks like one of Scott Boras’ rare misses, and Gomez is a terrific asset for the Brewers.

[logan82]

That value coupled with a decent im house replacement is exactly why we should be shopping Gomez. I just don't get the feeling we are.

[danzig6767]

You are a good poster on here logan, so i'm sure you understand that that just because a team isn't technically shopping a player doesn't mean that a player is off limits to being traded.

 

Melvin can't be shopping Gomez right now anyways. While i do see the odds being against him being traded in the offseason, if Carlos were to be traded, that would be the prime time to do so. That would be a time when teams are trying to put together their rosters and thus if a good team really needed a CF and either didn't have one as a prospect or couldn't land one in free agency, they could contact Melvin to see if there was any chance to work out a deal.

 

Not only that, during the offseason Melvin and Attanasio can at some point get a feel of where their roster is shaping up depending on whatever other moves were made. Keep in mind, pretty major trades can often be hard to actually complete for a variety of reasons.

 

1. You need a team/teams to have a need for a player that you're willing to trade.

 

2. A team/teams with interest need to have good enough prospects which interest the team trading the quality major league player.

 

3. Even if an interested team has prospects to entice say the Brewers, they have to agree on giving up what is being demanded.

 

Look at the Greinke trade. The Brewers wanted to trade Greinke and Texas wanted to acquire him, but they simply weren't willing to offer enough to get Melvin to say yes. Thankfully, that was the case and instead Doug got Segura. I would hope he does the same for Gomez if anyone calls, drive a hard bargain, especially given Carlos has three years on his deal vs being say one year from free agency.

[logan82]

You can't get your best return unless you are shopping a guy. Remember when Lawrie was traded and some GM's didn't even know he was on the market. I am not saying don't drive a hard bargain but you have to let teams know you are interested in trading a guy.

[paul253]

I agree with Logan. Melvin should be on the line shopping Gomez for pitching, not sitting on the sidelines waiting to be blown away with an offer. As I mentioned before Melvin has more or less called Gomez untouchable. So why would teams come calling and making offers for him? Would you call and make an offer for Andrew McCutchen? Or Derek Jeter? Or Justin Verlander? Of course not because there is no way those guys are going to be traded. If you are willing to trade Gomez then don't imply otherwise.

 

Of course this discussion is moot. We all know darn well that Melvin won't shop Gomez until after the 2015 season when he has one year left on his contract.

[danzig6767]

I agree with Logan. Melvin should be on the line shopping Gomez for pitching, not sitting on the sidelines waiting to be blown away with an offer. As I mentioned before Melvin has more or less called Gomez untouchable. So why would teams come calling and making offers for him? Would you call and make an offer for Andrew McCutchen? Or Derek Jeter? Or Justin Verlander? Of course not because there is no way those guys are going to be traded. If you are willing to trade Gomez then don't imply otherwise.

 

Of course this discussion is moot. We all know darn well that Melvin won't shop Gomez until after the 2015 season when he has one year left on his contract.

 

I must have missed the article or interview where Melvin stated that Gomez was untouchable. I'd love to see a link where he said this. Plus, how many real GM'S out there state in public that one of their better players is up for sale, especially one who recently just signed a multi-year deal? It rarely ever happens for good reason. The job of a GM is different than posting on a message board.

 

Either way, while as i said that i'd be willing to trade Carlos for the right offer, i'm not going to lose any sleep if he isn't moved this offseason. He's turned into a one of the best centerfielders in the game, is entering what are often prime years for a baseball player, and has three years left on his deal at team friendly dollars.

[paul253]

I must have missed the article or interview where Melvin stated that Gomez was untouchable.

Perhaps I exaggerated a bit by using "untouchable", though Melvin, to me at least, made it clear Gomez wasn't going anywhere. His name was never even mentioned in trade rumors.

 

Plus, how many real GM'S out there state in public that one of their better players is up for sale, especially one who recently just signed a multi-year deal?

 

Real GM's do it all the time, especially around the trade deadline. You can't tell me you've never heard a GM saying that a certain player is available. People have this idea that every time Melvin says something in public it's just a rouse or some sneaky way of driving up a player's value. Sometimes he says things because actually means it.

 

I think you and I agree on a lot when it comes to Gomez. He's having a wonderful season and if traded should fetch a very good return. I think where the difference lies is that you are in that mindset where if we keep him we keep him whereas my mindset is if the Brewers are actually serious about obtaining the kind of pitching they need they should willing, if not outright looking, to move him. On top of the fact that good offense and bad pitching has equaled bad Brewer's teams for at least a decade, Melvin also has a bit of history of blowing chances to trade guys when their value is high. I have very little confidence that this team will compete next season if the same ole guys and the same ole rotation are thrown out there.

[danzig6767]

 

Plus, how many real GM'S out there state in public that one of their better players is up for sale, especially one who recently just signed a multi-year deal?

 

Real GM's do it all the time, especially around the trade deadline. You can't tell me you've never heard a GM saying that a certain player is available. People have this idea that every time Melvin says something in public it's just a rouse or some sneaky way of driving up a player's value. Sometimes he says things because actually means it.

 

Pretty much the only time you hear a GM openly admit in public that a player is available around the trade deadline is like in the case of Greinke last year where a very good player is in the last year of his deal, likely won't resign, and the team is out of playoff contention. Rarely ever do you hear that though about a really good player with multi-years left on their deal. The reason GM's don't do that is obvious, they don't want to to piss off that player by letting everyone know he's being shopped, but then no trade ends up happening and you're left with an irritated player.

 

I think you and I agree on a lot when it comes to Gomez. He's having a wonderful season and if traded should fetch a very good return. I think where the difference lies is that you are in that mindset where if we keep him we keep him whereas my mindset is if the Brewers are actually serious about obtaining the kind of pitching they need they should willing, if not outright looking, to move him.

 

If Gomez only had one year left on his deal, i'd share your same zeal to trade him. With three years left though, i'm fine with a plan of only trading him for a fabulous offer. Baseball can be a volatile and unpredictable sport from year to year. Did a single person following MLB predict say that the Pirates would be on pace for the best record in baseball while Washington would be 14.5 games back in August? That Baltimore would win 93 games last year?

 

Point being that while pitching is clearly a major need overall for the Brewers organization and that is mainly why the odds look poor that the team can compete for a playoff berth next season, who knows what will be the case in 2015 or 2016. It's certainly possible that in either of those years that the Brewers end up having a quality team and one of the reasons why is Gomez.

 

So that's why i'm fine with multiple scenarios.

 

1. Trading Carlos this offseason if a team offers a serious haul of pitching.

 

2. Keeping him for all three years so long as the team wins 90 plus games during at least one of those years.

 

3. Something in between where he's traded at a later date so long as the return is good.

 

Of the three i'd probably prefer option 1 the most, but not by some huge margin.

[logan82]

Baseball can be a volatile and unpredictable sport from year to year. Did a single person following MLB predict say that the Pirates would be on pace for the best record in baseball while Washington would be 14.5 games back in August? That Baltimore would win 93 games last year?

No but they are probably not 90 win teams talent wise. They are probably mid to high 80's win talent teams. We could see a few years back the Pirates were on the rise. Same for the Orioles. I remember a few years back people were talking about the Orioles up and coming pitching talent.

 

Keeping him for all three years so long as the team wins 90 plus games during at least one of those years

I think we need to get better to be good enough to have a chance at 90 wins. If I thought we would be good during his contract I would probably still want to trade him. I wouldn't be as opposed to hanging onto him as I am now though. I think he is our #1 trading chip. I 100% want him traded for good prospects to build our franchise.

[danzig6767]

 

I think we need to get better to be good enough to have a chance at 90 wins. If I thought we would be good during his contract I would probably still want to trade him. I wouldn't be as opposed to hanging onto him as I am now though. I think he is our #1 trading chip. I 100% want him traded for good prospects to build our franchise.

 

We probably agree more than we disagree on how to handle Gomez, but in the end, regardless if he's traded or not, building the franchise back up with another influx of some high end young talent is going to ride way more on if Seid starts hitting better on his draft picks than if Carlos is traded.

 

The by far biggest reason that the Brewers so badly need more impact arms in the organization overall is that first Jack Z and now Seid have done an atrocious job of drafting/developing quality pitching. This has to change at some point.

 

Look at say the Cardinals

 

Lynn, Miller, Kelly, Garcia, Rosenthal, Siegrist, etc were all drafted by them and they still have better arms in the minors than we do.

 

Tampa's farm system has produced a bevy of quality pitchers. The Pirates actually have three quality starters via free agency in Burnett, Wandy, and Liriano, but some key pen arms came from the farm and more are coming. There are plenty of other high quality young arms around the league who came via the draft.

 

For the Brewers though over a long stretch of time, Melvin has had to acquire pitching mostly elsewhere because both Jack Z and now Seid have been terrible at drafting pitching. Granted though, it was Doug who hired Seid, so he bears a sizable amount of responsibility for how his amateur scouting director performs. Hopefully some of Seid's more recent picks the last say two years can start showing more high end potential because if not, the odds are slim that Melvin or anyone who replaced him could build consistently quality teams without a farm system producing some cheap high end talent given our market size/payroll limitations.

[paul253]

If I were the DM I'd be all over Jack Z in the offseason. Seattle is in the lower half of almost every offensive category in the AL and Jack's time may be running short. I'm not sure if a one-for-one would be enough return for Gomez, but maybe something like Walker and Paxson for Gomez and one of our spare outfielders (Gindl or Davis)? I'd even settle for Hultzen, assuming his shoulder looks ok, instead of Walker.

[danzig6767]

If I were the DM I'd be all over Jack Z in the offseason. Seattle is in the lower half of almost every offensive category in the AL and Jack's time may be running short.

 

I would love to have Zduriencik back, but even if he isn't available, Melvin seriously needs to consider replacing Seid with someone else. While it's true that Seid hasn't had the benefit of picking in the top 5-10, it's hard to look at his drafts so far and have confidence that he should continue running drafts going forward. He's running the farm system into the ground and that's devastating for any small market team.

[paul253]

I didn't mean that I wanted Jack Z. back. I meant I'd be all over him as in calling him and saying "hey if you don't get better soon you won't have a job. So......Carlos Gomez.....". I don't know how much outfield help Seattle is looking for but maybe they'd be interested in Aoki as well. He'd certainly be a fan favorite. Gomez and Aoki should help out the offense some and bring a pretty good return (at least 2 of their big three pitchers).

 

Gomez, Aoki, and Bradley/Hall/Gagnon/Burgos for Walker, Hultzen (or Paxton is Hultzen isn't healthy), and Capps (a nice looking bullpen guy)?

 

Or since this involves so many guys how about simply Aoki for Paxton?

[danzig6767]

I didn't mean that I wanted Jack Z. back.

 

I would.

 

I'm far more concerned about how poorly Seid has done since taking over the draft than i am whether Gomez is traded. If we trade Carlos that would fetch us an arm or two, but each year Seid is in charge of drafting about 40 players and so far at least the results have been ugly. The main reason we even have this thread going about maybe trading one of the best centerfielders in the game entering his prime years while on a team friendly contract is because our farm system has cratered since Seid has taken over the drafts.

 

Had there not been as many whiffs, instead of even thinking about trading Gomez, Melvin could just grab arms from our farm system as other teams do that draft better.