Trade Deadline Come And Gone, No Deals

[trwi7]

I was just discussing the value of the draft pick assuming that was offered because everyone here apparently would have hated the deals that the D'Backs got for Kennedy and the Astros got for Norris.

[SoupTown]

Doug is all in for 2014. Recent comments from explain how our pitching is currently better than St Louis and Washington

 

2014 will likely have nearly to the man the same 25

[TURBO]

Don't be surprised to see Yuni B. in a Brewers uniform next year. DM and RRR must just love the guy.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

why not trade him when you could actually get value?

 

a completely valid question - what were the offers for Lohse that Melvin had to consider? Unless all of the legitimate offers are known, it's kind of pointless to ask why Lohse wasn't traded at the deadline for "value".

I remember that monty57 almost immediately pointed out that Lohse would probably be hard to trade, because teams weren't willing to give up a 1st rounder & the cash to add him as a FA. And routinely the reaction to that idea was that it was so harsh & negative, & Lohse is a good pitcher, etc. Now, we appear to be committed to Lohse for the rest of his deal, unless we'd let him go for a draft pick or a lower-tier prospect. I actually hope they send him through waivers now, to see if any offers on him are made.

[danzig6767]

why not trade him when you could actually get value?

 

It's true Lohse may completely fall apart and the Brewers will be stuck paying him for two more seasons...it's also very possible that his value will be highest over this offseason, when a very questionable list of pitchers hit free agency, and teams would rather get an arm like Lohse at his current contract for two seasons than sign someone like Garza for 4-5 years at $5 million more per season.

 

While i see the odds being slim that Melvin will want to trade Lohse in the offseason or that Attanasio would allow Doug to trade Lohse for any type of pitching prospect/prospects who aren't major league ready, if both though were open to it, i could see Lohse being in some level of demand.

 

Come the offseason, for some pitching needy teams that either strike out on landing a free agent starter or who balk at handing out a pricey 3-4-5 year deal, i could easily see Lohse being viewed as an attractive fall back option given he showed he wasn't just a Cardinals creation and that he doesn't have a long term contract.

[danzig6767]

why not trade him when you could actually get value?

 

a completely valid question - what were the offers for Lohse that Melvin had to consider? Unless all of the legitimate offers are known, it's kind of pointless to ask why Lohse wasn't traded at the deadline for "value".

I remember that monty57 almost immediately pointed out that Lohse would probably be hard to trade, because teams weren't willing to give up a 1st rounder & the cash to add him as a FA. And routinely the reaction to that idea was that it was so harsh & negative, & Lohse is a good pitcher, etc. Now, we appear to be committed to Lohse for the rest of his deal, unless we'd let him go for a draft pick or a lower-tier prospect. I actually hope they send him through waivers now, to see if any offers on him are made.

 

Two thoughts

 

1. I do think there were some factors into why it took Lohse so long to get signed beyond the draft pick aspect. You likely had teams fearing that Lohse could end up being like some other former Cardinals reclamation project starters who had success there and noticeably less success once they left. There is also Boras. I don't remember any rumors of what he was initially asking for contract wise with Lohse, but i highly doubt it was only 3 years and 33 million. Boras had to settle on that once all of the suitors dry up.

 

2. I certainly won't claim to know if Melvin got any serious offers for Lohse and if so for what exactly in return, but in watching how both Doug and Attanasio seem to view both roster building and almost never giving up on a season before it starts, i don't see the odds being high at all that they let it be known Lohse was available. Instead, my guess if that both Doug and Attanasio preferred to keep him unless another team made a call with such a great offer that it simply couldn't be turned down. The type of offer which wasn't going to be made, especially in today's baseball where teams value low cost prospects more than ever and quality pitching prospects in particular.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I look at the situation the Brewers have with Lohse from two different sides...

 

I didn't agree with them signing him in the first place, because at the time I viewed it as a shortsighted move for the longterm health of their organization. Depending on what the Brewers do with him over the next calendar year could go a long way to improving the organization, though. Many posters are always going to see Lohse as the reason they didn't have a 1st round pick in 2013, and that's fair. But, now that he's on the Brewers, his contract is actually well below market value for the production he's been giving over the past few seasons. It's true that age might catch up with him, but for right now there are no signs of that.

 

I wouldn't have a problem with running Lohse through waivers to see if there are any claims, because it would free up salary. But, I think the better move would be to try trading him this offseason for prospects, or looking to deal him at the 2014 deadline - I'd have no problem with them being willing to eat a portion of his remaining salary if that meant a better prospect package. Then, the Lohse signing would end up amounting to losing a 2013 draft pick, paying him below market value for 1+ seasons with his production, and moving him for minor league talent that is much closer to contributing at the big league level than the mid-late 1st round pick of a weakly regarded draft.

[TooLiveBrew]

2. I certainly won't claim to know if Melvin got any serious offers for Lohse and if so for what exactly in return, but in watching how both Doug and Attanasio seem to view both roster building and almost never giving up on a season before it starts, i don't see the odds being high at all that they let it be known Lohse was available.

Whether this was the case, or (and/or?) clubs simply aren't willing to offer much in return for Lohse, the Brewers are stuck with his contract on a team that doesn't forecast in any reasonable sense to be a serious contender in 2013 or 2014. And the longer Lohse stays with the Brewers the lower his trade value is with each day that passes.

[Funketown]

Don't be surprised to see Yuni B. in a Brewers uniform next year. DM and RRR must just love the guy.

 

 

Doubt it. Yuni plays for the Royals in even-numbered years, and the Brewers in odd-numbered years. It's a gentleman's agreement that neither team should have to go more than a season without some Yuni.

[danzig6767]

2. I certainly won't claim to know if Melvin got any serious offers for Lohse and if so for what exactly in return, but in watching how both Doug and Attanasio seem to view both roster building and almost never giving up on a season before it starts, i don't see the odds being high at all that they let it be known Lohse was available.

Whether this was the case, or (and/or?) clubs simply aren't willing to offer much in return for Lohse, the Brewers are stuck with his contract on a team that doesn't forecast in any reasonable sense to be a serious contender in 2013 or 2014. And the longer Lohse stays with the Brewers the lower his trade value is with each day that passes.

 

I doubt that Attanasio views next year in the same way many Brewers fans do. My guess is he is of the mind frame that with some better health and roster tweaks, the team can be competitive next year, thus he really wasn't interested in trying to trade Lohse at the deadline and likely won't try to trade him in the offseason.

 

The more i watch Attanasio the more i wonder if he has some Herb Kohl like tendencies with the Bucks in that both are very reticent to punt on a season before it even begins. As a result, he'll almost always view things more from the glass is half full perspective about the Brewers chances to be at least competitive vs thinking odds are more bleak to compete for a playoff berth, so lets trade some vets, pretty much punt on next year, and try to be good the following season.

[Funketown]

I suspect the same of Attanasio.

 

I suspect the talent distribution in MLB makes that type of attitude far more likely to lead to a championship than in the NBA. Teams who are consistently between 5th and 15th level in the NBA rarely win a championship, while in MLB it happens fairly often and will only be more common with the new playoff system.

 

Basically, I think the attitude of "just try to get into the playoffs" makes far more sense in MLB than the NBA.

 

Edit: Wow that sounds scatterbrained. Time to get a pint...

[Thurston Fluff]

...Many posters are always going to see Lohse as the reason they didn't have a 1st round pick in 2013, and that's fair. But, now that he's on the Brewers, his contract is actually well below market value for the production he's been giving over the past few seasons. It's true that age might catch up with him, but for right now there are no signs of that. ...

 

...I wouldn't have a problem with running Lohse through waivers to see if there are any claims, because it would free up salary....

 

If his contract is below market value then doesn't it make more sense to keep him than trade him to save money? I think a small market teams have to find value and Lohse is a value for his production.

 

 

I doubt that Attanasio views next year in the same way many Brewers fans do. My guess is he is of the mind frame that with some better health and roster tweaks, the team can be competitive next year, thus he really wasn't interested in trying to trade Lohse at the deadline and likely won't try to trade him in the offseason.

 

Personally I think the fans are overreacting more so than management being unrealistic about our chances next season.

[fondybrewfan]

With the extra wild cards unless you are a truly god awful team with minimal MLB talent (See Houston and Miami) then the playoffs are in site for most years. More than anything I think the extra playoff spots will make Attanasio and teams in general be very wary of completely rebuilding and selling off solid performing assets.

[LouisEly]

And the longer Lohse stays with the Brewers the lower his trade value is with each day that passes.

I'll disagree - look at K-Rod and what the Brewers got for him. The less money that is owed a player, the less risk in acquiring him, the more return you get in a trade.

 

Look at the distribution of payroll and resources among teams. You have the Yankees/Dodgers/Angels/Red Sox and to a lesser extent Phillies and Tigers that will offer a top free agent pitcher $100M+ and not even blink. Then you have the next tier of the Giants/Rangers/White Sox/Blue Jays and to a lesser extent Cubs and Cardinals who will offer a guy $50-$75M and not even blink. The rest of the league knows they can't compete with that, so what if those teams need a good arm to get them over the top? Lohse on a 2-year, $22M contract the way he has been pitching suddenly looks like a bargain. You can't get a guy of that quality as a free agent for only $22M, and two years limits the risk. One year and $11M looks even better.

 

This year the problem was competition. Despite the added wild card team, there were few teams competing for playoff spots. The NL Central practically has the two wild cards locked up. The NL East is just about over - Washington is 11.5 games out of first and 8 games out of the wild card. Arizona is five games out of the wild card and facing a Dodgers team that is red hot, getting their injured players back, and has a ton of payroll. I think Arizona was conservative in acquiring players because they felt they had little shot at catching the Dodgers or the wild card. In the AL Cleveland doesn't have the resources to acquire payroll and probably doesn't think they can stay with Detroit, thus their only acquisition was a guy the Cardinals DFA'd. Many of the big payroll teams - Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Angels, Nats, Mets, Phillies, and Giants, the type of teams that would take on payroll to put them over the top - aren't in contention, thus no demand.

 

As other have said, in the offseason when more teams think they have a chance, demand will be greater and thus returns will be higher.

[trwi7]

The longer Lohse stays with the Brewers, the older he gets and the better chance that he's ineffective/injured. That's why a lot of people were so against the signing (along with the draft pick tied to signing him). Sure he may go the whole contract without getting hurt while still being effective but he's 34 years old in the first year of the deal. I certainly wouldn't bet on it happening.

[LouisEly]

1) I'm tired of hearing the injury risk argument. I hate this word but it is a straw man argument. There isn't enough room on this board to list the pitchers in their early, mid, and late 20's who have gotten injured. It can happen to any pitcher at any time. Strasburg is a much bigger injury risk, but that's not going to stop someone from handing him $100M when he becomes a free agent (if he makes it to 2017 without getting injured again).

 

B) Yes, it is a risk for the Brewers to hold on to him longer because anything can happen. But you have to take risks in order to increase rewards. It's also a bigger risk for another team to acquire him now than to wait until less years/money are left on the deal. The longer they hold on to him, the less money and years on his deal, the less risk for another team to acquire him, the greater the return the Brewers will get. K-Rod got a guy who was given mid-first round money to sign, and the Brewers gave up a mid-first round pick to sign Lohse. If the Brewers hold on to Lohse and trade him next year for another Delmonico who was a mid-first round pick or given mid-first round money to sign, they will in essence get their first round pick back. The Brewers haven't given up anything for Lohse until they let him go - then evaluate what, if anything they got in return, and compare that to a mid-first round pick.

[danzig6767]

I suspect the same of Attanasio.

 

I suspect the talent distribution in MLB makes that type of attitude far more likely to lead to a championship than in the NBA. Teams who are consistently between 5th and 15th level in the NBA rarely win a championship, while in MLB it happens fairly often and will only be more common with the new playoff system.

 

Basically, I think the attitude of "just try to get into the playoffs" makes far more sense in MLB than the NBA.

 

Edit: Wow that sounds scatterbrained. Time to get a pint...

 

No question that the "just try to get into the playoffs" makes far more sense in MLB than the NBA. The MLB playoffs have come close to being a crap-shoot from year to year, while in the NBA only a select few teams have a real shot to win a title.

[paul253]

Boy it's a good thing we hung onto Axford instead of trading him a few weeks before the deadline when teams were actually interested in him.

[monty57]

I'm tired of hearing the injury risk argument. I hate this word but it is a straw man argument. There isn't enough room on this board to list the pitchers in their early, mid, and late 20's who have gotten injured. It can happen to any pitcher at any time. Strasburg is a much bigger injury risk, but that's not going to stop someone from handing him $100M when he becomes a free agent (if he makes it to 2017 without getting injured again).

 

In this argument, it is not correct to compare different players. Rather, you compare a player to himself. Of course there are players who get injured early on, many of whom never make it to their 30's due to these injuries. However, taking them out of the equation, someone in their mid-30's is more apt to get injured then they were in their mid-20's. If they had an injury in their 20's, they will have the lingering effects of that injury, and even if they didn't have an injury in their 20's, they will have a decade more wear-and-tear on their body. But, the main argument isn't the extra injury risk (although that is cause for some worry). The main argument is age-based regression. Most players don't make it to their mid-30s, and (steroid era aside) those that do generally aren't as productive as they were when they were in their prime. It's nothing personal against a particular player, it's just nature... people age. There's a reason players retire. If age didn't have a major effect on performance, people would play much longer. It's not coincidence that most players call it quits in their early-to-mid 30's.

 

The Brewers' big concerns right now lie mainly in Lohse, who has played well, but will be 36 (an age when almost all starting pitchers are retired) when the contract ends, and Ramirez, who is not only well into his mid-30's but has also been laid up this entire year with a knee injury. Knee injuries scare me with anyone, as they often linger around until (and sometimes even after) surgery is performed. Between these two players, we will owe $27MM next year, and $15MM in 2015 when Ramirez will no longer be on the team. Then we'll still owe Lohse for several seasons after that in deferred salary. That is a substantial chunk of our payroll tied into two 35 year-olds, one with a serious injury and one playing a position where few players are still playing at 35 & 36.

 

It is possible that both will be All Stars next year, but I don't think the odds would favor it. If both of them were 26, they would be far more likely to perform well next year, and in spite of your post I quoted, I'd have to believe you'd agree with that.

 

Yes, it is a risk for the Brewers to hold on to him longer because anything can happen. But you have to take risks in order to increase rewards. It's also a bigger risk for another team to acquire him now than to wait until less years/money are left on the deal. The longer they hold on to him, the less money and years on his deal, the less risk for another team to acquire him, the greater the return the Brewers will get. K-Rod got a guy who was given mid-first round money to sign, and the Brewers gave up a mid-first round pick to sign Lohse. If the Brewers hold on to Lohse and trade him next year for another Delmonico who was a mid-first round pick or given mid-first round money to sign, they will in essence get their first round pick back. The Brewers haven't given up anything for Lohse until they let him go - then evaluate what, if anything they got in return, and compare that to a mid-first round pick.

 

If Lohse is still pitching well when he's 36, then it could be considered a good signing. However, that would defy the odds, and in this day of "Moneyball" management, it astounds me that a team would continually put themselves in positions where they would have to defy the odds for their moves to work out.

 

I know there are some that say "I don't care if they have to DFA him in the final year, as long as they get two good years out of him." I can't agree with this, as we will still have to field a team in two years. Hampering that team with 10-15% of their payroll in dead money (just on Lohse) gives us almost no chance of realistically fielding a winning team, especially when we have very few prospects who will be expected to play at an All Star level for league minimum. There is also a good possibility that we would have a better use for that money that we can't pursue because we're obligated to pay Lohse (opportunity cost). Again, it's not a given that Lohse will be bad in 2015, but he would have to defy nature to still be a good starting pitcher at age 36.

 

Bottom line is, the Brewers weren't looking for a Garza-type return. They said that they only wanted to get value equivalent to the first round draft pick they gave up for Lohse, and no one was willing to give even that much talent for him. It was a panic signing when it happened (apparently against Melvin's wishes) and no one else wants to be stuck with the risk that comes with having a so-so pitcher in his mid-30's signed to a two-and-a-half year deal for eight figures per year. I don't blame them for not trading him when the "trade" would've been a salary dump. I blame them for making a bad panic signing last offseason that looked to me at the time as more of an attempt to boost lagging season ticket sales than it was a move to actually field a playoff team.

[JohnBriggs12]

Boy it's a good thing we hung onto Axford instead of trading him a few weeks before the deadline when teams were actually interested in him.

 

That is a huge assumption and probably wrong. The relievers that did move were all having great years. The interest in Axford was next to nil. Cubs couldn't move Kevin Gregg either. Think he's in their long term plans?

[LouisEly]

However, taking them out of the equation, someone in their mid-30's is more apt to get injured then they were in their mid-20's.

Please post statistics that prove this. I would be really interested in the number of starting pitchers who have been put on the 15 and 60-day DLs over the last three years, what % of them were over/under 30, and how that compares to the total number of starting pitchers who are over/under 30. I'd do this, but I really don't have the time right now.

 

The 2013 Brewers are soundly disproving this theory. Mark Rogers (27) has missed the entire season, Estrada (29) has missed 12 starts, Gallardo (27) is on the DL, Burgos (25) has been sidelined almost two months total, and Fiers (28) has been out for almost two months. Meanwhile, Lohse (34) has missed one start.

 

Between these two players, we will owe $27MM next year, and $15MM in 2015 when Ramirez will no longer be on the team. Then we'll still owe Lohse for several seasons after that in deferred salary. That is a substantial chunk of our payroll tied into two 35 year-olds, one with a serious injury and one playing a position where few players are still playing at 35 & 36.

Worrying about payroll for two seasons is just as short-sighted as signing 34-year-old players. And because of the bonus pool limits and penalties for the draft and international signings that money can no longer be diverted into prospect acquisition. It's not limiting the Brewers from doing anything that you are advocating.

 

If both of them were 26, they would be far more likely to perform well next year, and in spite of your post I quoted, I'd have to believe you'd agree with that.

Yes, I'd agree. I'd also counter that if they were 26 they would cost $100M+ to acquire or retain, not $36M. I'd have to believe you'd agree with that too. Their average salaries are less than qualifying offers to free agents.

 

They said that they only wanted to get value equivalent to the first round draft pick they gave up for Lohse, and no one was willing to give even that much talent for him. It was a panic signing when it happened (apparently against Melvin's wishes) and no one else wants to be stuck with the risk that comes with having a so-so pitcher in his mid-30's signed to a two-and-a-half year deal for eight figures per year.

How do you know it's not because there is very little competition for the playoffs this season, and the teams that typically would acquire payroll (Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Angels, Nats, Mets, Phillies, and Giants) aren't in contention this year. How do you know that these teams aren't going to try to retool in the offseason and acquire Lohse?

 

I get what you're saying. I'm just saying that I'm patient to wait and see and not jump to assumptions.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd be willing to bet that the number one reason there weren't more trades at the deadline is that teams just weren't willing to give much. The pendulum of perceived value has definitely swung toward the prospects in recent years, and most team trading veterans seem to be doing so primarily to dump salary as opposed to adding bonafide talent. I'm all for the Brewers trading vets for blue chippers, but I don't get the bashing that they didn't make trades 'just because'. I think Melvin was underwhelmed with the offers and he decided not to put guys out there OBO.... that's the Dean Taylor school of thought, and I really don't want to go back there.

[paul253]

That is a huge assumption and probably wrong. The relievers that did move were all having great years. The interest in Axford was next to nil. Cubs couldn't move Kevin Gregg either. Think he's in their long term plans?

 

I don't think it's wrong at all. I think that almost anything would have been a good return for Axford because they is no way we go to arbitration with him when the season is done. In the months leading up to deadline he was pitching pretty well, lowering his ERA from 10.32 on May 1st to 3.38 a week before the deadline . It is just my opinion obviously but I think, like Lohse, Melvin was asking for too much in return and other team's were turned off by his demands. I think he waited too long and when Axford started to struggle right before the deadlines what interest teams may have had went away.

[RobertR]

I think it's a question of whether Melvin was offered anything of value. It's very likely that teams weren't willing to give up any sort of prospect or take on Axford's salary, leaving Melvin without much motivation to make a deal. I'm sure it's good for Peralta's development to have a solid bullpen behind him and allows the other young pitchers on the team to develop without undo pressure either.

[monty57]

I agree that there probably wasn't much offered. My concern is that it is the current management who put together a roster containing a number of guys to whom they're paying eight figure salaries, none of which can generate even a so-so offer.

 

The natural response would seem to be: "Stop offering multi-year contracts for eight figures per year to people who will not be tradeable mid-way through the contract."

 

Since Brewer management is obligated to the contracts they signed unless they somehow pass that obligation on to someone else, I'm looking for the best "out."

 

...However, taking them out of the equation, someone in their mid-30's is more apt to get injured then they were in their mid-20's....

 

Please post statistics that prove this.

 

How about the fact that most players are out of baseball by the time they're in their mid-30's? They don't retire because they're healthier and better than they were during the years they played. I'm certain (sorry, no stats to "prove" this) that if a player was capable of being better at 30, 40, 50, 60 (whatever age) than they were when they were in their 20's, they would never retire. Hank Aaron would still be adding to his home run record. Age effects everyone. Some players are able to play a few years longer than others, but betting a lot of guaranteed money that one specific person will be the one to defy the odds is not likely to be a good bet. If Lohse is still a Brewer in two years, I hope he is one of the very few who can defy the odds, but I don't expect it.

 

Also, to your reference to the current Brewers, you'll note that I said players have to be compared to themselves, not others. I didn't say that players in their 20's don't get injured, of course they do. Players who get injured often during their 20's are not really likely to still be playing into their 30's. I said that "Player x" at age 35 is more likely to get injured (and regress) than "player x" was when he was 25. Rogers has never been healthy, and will probably never have much of a MLB career. If Gallardo's lack of velocity is due to anything permanent, he probably won't be pitching beyond his current contract. But, as I mentioned, I'm more concerned about age regression than I am about injury. Even if Lohse doesn't get hurt, I don't expect him to continue to perform at a MLB level for two more years. I hope I'm wrong.

 

To put it simply... if Gallardo is not injured, and continues to pitch with reduced velocity at age 27-28, people will scratch their heads and wonder what happened. If Lohse throws up a 5+ ERA the next two years, people will just say he's old and should retire. No one (other than perhaps Attanasio) will say "boy, never could've seen that coming."