The "Huge Contracts are Really a Bad Idea" Thread

[splitterpfj]

Braun suspended, Pujols injured and likely done for the season, Kemp perpetually injured, Crawford too, Soriano FINALLY ditched by the Cubs, A-Rod a complete disaster at this point...

 

Maybe this was a bad idea?

[BrewCrewForever]

I think it all depends how old the player is when you sign him to the long term deal.

[umphrey]

Pujols wins this thread so much. 5 straight years all of his triple slash numbers has fallen to the point where he is just an above average 1B at this point and injured on top of it. He's already not worth what they are paying him and they are still on the hook for 8 years / $212M. I don't think these deals are driven by baseball minds though, teams just try to drum up excitement before signing a big TV or stadium contract.

[nate82]

Braun suspended, Pujols injured and likely done for the season, Kemp perpetually injured, Crawford too, Soriano FINALLY ditched by the Cubs, A-Rod a complete disaster at this point...

 

Maybe this was a bad idea?

 

So far Prince has been worth his contract though he has been fairly healthy through his career so far and Miguel Cabrera has also been worth his contract that he signed. A-Rod was worth his first contract and the Yankees new his 2nd one with them he wouldn't be worth his contract for the final 2 or 3 years. Soriano wasn't a bad contract for the Cubs as they got the value they wanted out of him it was just the last 2-years he hasn't really been worth the contract.

 

Crawford looks bad because of the injuries he has had. Pujols looks as though he is on a sharp decline and I wouldn't be surprised if it was because he stopped using PED's.

[SRB]

I think giving a mega-deal for a free agent is universally a bad idea (have any of these huge deals ever worked out? I guess the original A-Rod deal if you don't factor in the extension), but since the market is requiring these mega-deals to get star players now, I still like that the Braun extension. The Brewers got Braun for probably >$100,000,000 less than what it would have cost on the open market.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hey Stache, how about mentioning the Braves contract of paying BJ Upton? I get his contract isn't "Huge" by overall dollars a season, but 5/75mil for a guy who's -1.5WAR during Year 1? On top of the Draft Pick lost in signing him?

 

Huge contracts really are a bad idea. Take Prince for example. He's owed 7 more seasons at 24mil. And this season his bat is ordinary for a 1b.

You can't move that contract. I don't think you can really move any contract over 20mil a season unless that player is still providing All Star type seasons.

And meanwhile Tampa Bay Rays lead the AL East with a 60mil payroll. Having traded away every soon to be FA with a big contract forthcoming strategy over the years. They haven't even drafted well!!!! Again, they haven't even drafted well. Not since the 2007draftees have they had a player play for them they selected! #1 overall pick Price. and then 8th rd. selection Matt Moore. That's 5 years w/o a player joining their team from their system. Not one big contract signed, and yet here they are 1st place in arguably the hardest division in Baseball for a small market team to compete against.

Sure they extended Longoria long term, but for me I think they struck at a time before the price got to out of range and fully expect to see Longoria with his now "Team Friendly" contract to be a part of some HUGE offseason deal within 5 years keeping Tampa ahead of the game once again while some other team falls flat on their face holding on to a huge contract.

[nate82]

Since when is a .800 OPS ordinary?

[lcbj68c]

And meanwhile Tampa Bay Rays lead the AL East with a 60mil payroll. Having traded away every soon to be FA with a big contract forthcoming strategy over the years. They haven't even drafted well!!!! Again, they haven't even drafted well. Not since the 2007draftees have they had a player play for them they selected! #1 overall pick Price. and then 8th rd. selection Matt Moore. That's 5 years w/o a player joining their team from their system. Not one big contract signed, and yet here they are 1st place in arguably the hardest division in Baseball for a small market team to compete against.

Sure they extended Longoria long term, but for me I think they struck at a time before the price got to out of range and fully expect to see Longoria with his now "Team Friendly" contract to be a part of some HUGE offseason deal within 5 years keeping Tampa ahead of the game once again while some other team falls flat on their face holding on to a huge contract.

 

Just had to throw some facts into the ring.

1) The Rays are NOT leading the AL East.

2) The Rays are NOT a small market team. The Tampa/St Pete Metro area ranks 13th of all US cities. They are a smaller revenue team, but that is based upon other factors...not their market.

 

I like the way the Rays do baseball business, but having lived there for 11 years, they have zero sense when it comes to the entertainment business. Their failure to dole out big contracts isn't a result of "wanting to", it's a result of "having to" because their gate is so poor. Nothing to do with the incorrect perception that they are a small market franchise. They just went on amazing run of winning 20/24 and are still staring at a wild card positioning. They've overachieved so far in 2013. I fully expect them behind both Baltimore and Boston come late September. Lucky for them, there is a 2nd wild card. Que Suerte!

[brewcrewdue80]

Just had to throw some facts into the ring.

1) The Rays are NOT leading the AL East.

 

I apologize, I didn't check the results from today to see they fell to .5 games behind Boston. When I woke up this morning Tampa was indeed leading the AL East.

[pitchleague]

Josh Hamilton has been forgotten in this discussion (unless I missed him while skimming through the posts.) Or does his contract not constitute as a "huge contract?"

[danzig6767]

The Reds will owe Votto 25 million per in years 2018-23. He's maybe the second best hitter in the game, but i see the odds being remote of that contract not being an albatross for at least three of those years. I remember being stunned when reading about that deal.

 

The Cardinals are very well run, but lucky also. Take Pujols. They offer him between 180-190 million dollars, but he says no. Less than two years later, Pujols already looks to be in clear decline and there would be no DL for the Cardinals to use Albert at. Man i wish he took the Cards offer.

 

I understand that baseball is swimming in new cable TV revenues, but the way so many teams have been handing out big money 7-10 year deals for position players and 5-6 year big money deals to starting pitchers, my guess is that the majority of these contracts will start looking ugly anywhere from halfway in to the last couple of years.

 

The only time i can see 7-10 year deals not blowing up on the back end or sooner is these contract to guys in their early 20's where teams buy out all of the arbitration years and the first few years of free agency.

[Funketown]

Cabrera and Sabathia have both performed up to or over their contracts. Hard for me to think of many others off the top of my head.

 

The Pujols contract is the worst in baseball and it isn't even close. They'd better hope he shows up in some clinic's PED docs!

[Baldkin]

Cabrera and Sabathia have both performed up to or over their contracts. Hard for me to think of many others off the top of my head.

 

The Pujols contract is the worst in baseball and it isn't even close. They'd better hope he shows up in some clinic's PED docs!

 

Manny Ramirez, ARod's first deal, Carlos Beltran, Todd Helton (probably)...

[Bombers]

The Pujols signing was horrible. Here are the comments from here in regards to the Pujols signing before the 2012 season:

 

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=26542

 

I thought Pujols leaving was great for the Crew, but maybe it would have been better for the Cards to stick all that money into him

[gregmag]

Ryan Howard. You could see it coming like a light in a railroad tunnel.

[Funketown]

Cabrera and Sabathia have both performed up to or over their contracts. Hard for me to think of many others off the top of my head.

 

The Pujols contract is the worst in baseball and it isn't even close. They'd better hope he shows up in some clinic's PED docs!

 

Manny Ramirez, ARod's first deal, Carlos Beltran, Todd Helton (probably)...

 

Those probably all count too. Helton's AAV was only about $13.5 million on the deal so maybe that one doesn't fit in, but it was one of the largest ever at the time. Not sure if Beltran is quite in the $ range we're talking about here either.

 

Jeter's 10 year/$189 million deal probably fits in here as well, when off-the-field revenue considerations are made.

 

Just looking at the list of largest contracts, I'd say 80% are unquestionably regrettable.

[monty57]

Some less quantifiable aspects are:

 

(1) Was the player "the final piece" that wins the team some championships. There should be some consideration for a player getting a big contract, not necessarily putting up the numbers maybe expected from the contract, but pushing the team over the edge to win a World Series or two.

 

(2) Did the signing prevent the team from making other moves. Pujols' signing looks really bad, but the Angels seem to have unlimited funds, so while it is costly, it is not prohibiting the team from making other moves. Meanwhile, the Twins' signing of Joe Mauer seems to have prevented them from putting MLB talent around him.

 

(3) Does having the player on the team sell tickets? This is probably an overblown notion, but people are paying to see Mariano Rivera this year, and paid to see Cal Ripken even in his declining years. For the most part, I think fans come out to see a team because they can win now, or because they think they have a good plan showing how they will win in the near future. I don't think most fans come out to see one good player on a bad team, but there are exceptions, and those exceptions make up for some of their salary through the extra revenue they bring in.

 

Generally speaking, I think big money deals are very risky. Multi-year, big money deals are even riskier, and multi-year, big money deals that end with the guy in his mid-to-late 30's are almost doomed to failure. This can be mitigated somewhat if some championships are won during that player's tenure, while it is magnified on lower-payroll teams, who can end up with an untradable "name" player surrounded by a AAA squad.

 

I far prefer extending core players when they're still in the pre-arby years. There's risk in that, but it's much less financially crippling.

[StearnsFTW]

Just look at the Phillies' roster. Then look at what they owe 2 years from now. I've been laughing at them for years.

 

Edit: They owe Lee, Hamels, Papelbon, Howard & Rollins $96.5MM for 2015.

 

[LouisEly]

No one has even mentioned the 4 years & $83M still owed Jayson Werth or the 4 years & $68M (possibly 5 years & $85M) still owed Andre Ethier.

 

People who think Ramirez & Lohse's contracts are bad need to read this thread.

[TheCrew07]

No one has even mentioned the 4 years & $83M still owed Jayson Werth or the 4 years & $68M (possibly 5 years & $85M) still owed Andre Ethier.

 

People who think Ramirez & Lohse's contracts are bad need to read this thread.

 

Or maybe the posters that think those contracts are good or were a good idea should reconsider exactly what the Brewers are buying and what market the team is located in?

 

Some teams can afford 2 or more albatross contracts without it having affect the way they operate, the Brewers can barely afford to miss on a mid level contract without it affecting how they operate.

 

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this contract:

 

Johan Santana lhp

6 years/$137.5M (2008-13), plus 2014 club option

 

• -6 years/$137.5M (2008-13), plus 2014 club optionacquired in trade from Minnesota 2/2/08 (Santana waived no-trade clause and agreed to new 6-year deal, replacing final year of previous contract)
  -08:$19M, 09:$20M, 10:$21M, 11:$22.5M, 12:$24M, 13:$25.5M, 14:$25M club option ($5.5M buyout)
  -full no-trade clause
  -$5M deferred annually at 1.25% compound interest (payable June 30 seven years after season in which salary was earned), reducing present-day value of package to $123.1M award bonuses: $0.5M-$1.5M for Cy Young (varies based on number won), $0.25M each for MVP or World Series MVP, $0.1M each for All Star selection, LCS MVP, post-season MVP, post-season All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
  -2014 club option becomes player option if Santana:
  
  • -wins Cy Young award from 2008-13 and finishes second or third in the Cy Young vote in one other season
    -ranks second or third in Cy Young vote in any 3 seasons, 2008-13
    -is on the active roster for the final 30 days of 2013 season, and:

• -pitches 215 innings in 2013, or
  -pitches 420 innings in 2012-13, or
  -pitches 630 innings in 2011-13

-the party holding the 2014 option must exercise it by Nov. 15, 2013

-if 2014 option is Santana’s and he declines it, he receives no buyout

-perks: hotel suite on road trips, 15-person suite for 2008 home games

-Santana to donate $0.25M annually to Mets charity

 

Could the Brewers have afforded to eat $21 mil for 2011 or $25 mil for 2013? Let alone both years combined? He didn't exactly set the world on fire in 2012 either...

[LouisEly]

Or maybe the posters that think those contracts are good or were a good idea should reconsider exactly what the Brewers are buying and what market the team is located in?

1) There's a difference between "not bad" and "good".

 

B) With the bonus pools and penalties for going over pool limits for the draft and signing international free agents it's not like they can redirect those funds towards signing developmental prospects, unless there are young players in Japan or Korea they want to target (and based on what Darvish signed for, they will cost just as much). The only way outside of maxing out the draft and international pools to acquire young talent is to sign free agents and trade them for prospects. The Selig's don't own the team anymore, so if Mark A. is OK with spending the money that's fine with me.

[djoctagone]

i think teams are better off with fewer years and higher average annual value. if a player stinks, and there's fan backlash, the fans will rejoice (and start to forget) when the contract's been shed.

[KCBrewerfan34]

NBA got it right maxing contracts at 5 years for the owning team and 4 for FA teams. Saves the teams from themselves.

[torts]

NBA got it right maxing contracts at 5 years for the owning team and 4 for FA teams. Saves the teams from themselves.

 

yup, and the NHL have contract limits of 7 years along with a very strict salary cap.

[MJLiverock]

I don't know the NHL rules but I know Ryan Suter signed a 13 yr. $98MM contract in July, 2012. Was the 7 year rule later or are there ways around it?