Rickie Weeks returns to form [Latest: Weeks is done for the season, surgery likely. See post #91]

[logan82]

No, the point at least two people are making is that batting average is almost worthless. I completely disagree, at least when looking at how good of a hitter is. I realize people value different things, but I don't understand why, in this context, hitting a home run is so much more important than how often you actually get a hit.

It is almost completely worthless. It doesn't matter how often you can get a hit if they are all singles and you almost never walk. It is all about total production added with the bat. Batting average is worthless if that is what you want to know. All it will tell you is how a guy adds value when used with another stat. I look at overall value a hitter adds at the plate. In my opinion you can't leave anything out. It leads to a bad analysis.

 

Since I am being accused of suggesting Dunn is better than Ichiro and Gwynn I might as well give an opinion. In the case of Dunn and Gwynn I would use something like WRC since it is adjusted for league average and they played in different run environments. I would say Gwynn was a better hitter in comparison to the guys he played with than Dunn is, but not by much. If they played at the same time I would say they add roughly equivalent value with the bat. Ichiro is not in the same class as either of those two guys by either measure. He is the definition of a empty batting average.

 

Interesting note, I would say Ichiro was roughly equivalent to Weeks as a hitter over their careers.

[The stache]

I have a fundamental problem saying that a walk is as good as a hit. Hogwash.

 

If a man is on second base, and Weeks is up, and walks, you have men at first and second. If Weeks gets a hit, you have men at first and third bare minimum, or the man at second scores depending on their lead, running on contact, speed, and where the ball was hit. A hit can do far more than a walk by advancing runners, and increase the likelihood your team scores.

 

To say Rickie Weeks has been as productive as Ichiro because they have similar OBP is just ridiculous. Next thing you'll be telling me that Rickie Weeks (career OBP of .346) is in the same ballpark as Roberto Clemente (career .359 OBP). Hell, why have somebody like Gwynn, Clemente or Ichiro out there when a walk is as good as a hit. Put a midget with a 3 inch strike zone, and let him walk 95% of the time.

[paul253]

It doesn't matter how often you can get a hit if they are all singles and you almost never walk

What difference does it make if you get a single or draw a walk? Is a single not better than a walk? A walk doesn't drive home the runner on third base. A walk doesn't move the runner from first to third. A walk doesn't score two runs with the bases loaded. Who cares if you can draw a walk if you get a hit instead?

 

Over the course of 500 at bats player A has line of .330/.330/.450. Player B has a line .200/.330/.450. You are going to argue player B is just as valuable as player A because player A didn't draw any walks? 65 hits instead of 65 walks means absolutely nothing? I'll mention in a bit that while it's possible it means nothing it's also possible it could mean a lot.

It is all about total production added with the bat. Batting average is worthless if that is what you want to know.

 

So it is about TOTAL production but how often you get a hit is worthless. To me those statements contradict each other.

 

Interesting note, I would say Ichiro was roughly equivalent to Weeks as a hitter over their careers.

 

This is not a knock on you, but I think there is such a thing as over analysis. Too focused on stats. And that's what I think you are doing here. For instance, when Funketown said "There's not a big difference between a player who hits .230/.400/.450 and one that hits .350/.400/.450" that is an instance where simply looking at the stats doesn't paint the whole picture. If the .350 hitter is only getting hits when the bases are empty, or when there is a runner on first who only moves up one base, then no there is no real difference. But if in any of those cases there is a runner in scoring position, or there is a guy on first who advances to third on the hit then there is a huge difference between the two. I know the old adage says "a walk is as good as a hit" but that's not always the case. A guy on third base, two outs, pitcher on deck. You're going to say a walk is just as good as a hit? Simply going by OBP it's just a good but in real life it's a lot less likely to get that run home.

 

Likewise, people always argue strikeouts mean nothing, but again, it depends on the situation when the strikeout happens. A strikeout with a guy on third and one out is a lot worse than a strikeout with the bases empty and two out. When you have a guy like Weeks who strikes out so often, undoubtedly there are going to be a lot of cases where those strikeouts are lot more damaging then an outcome, say a flyout to CF or or a ground out to second base, would be.

 

Finally, what about situational hitting? It doesn't always show up in OBP% or SLG% but it's important as well. When looking at getting guys home from third base with less than two outs, Weeks has a lower career % (43%) than pretty much all of the Brewer's regulars (Braun, Ramirez, Hart, Aoki, Lucroy Gomez, even Yuni). That's another case of where the "eye test" can be used. Looking at Weeks in those instance it just doesn't look like he is able to adjust to the situation (either that or he just doesn't want to).

 

It was said earlier that you have to look at the TOTAL production. I think if you do in fact look at total production Weeks is average at best offensively.

[xisxisxis]

Interesting note, I would say Ichiro was roughly equivalent to Weeks as a hitter over their careers.

 

WARP of 50.4 compared to 14.6 is roughly equivalent? Ok....

[RightFieldCoder]

Over the course of 500 at bats player A has line of .330/.330/.450. Player B has a line .200/.330/.450. You are going to argue player B is just as valuable as player A because player A didn't draw any walks? 65 hits instead of 65 walks means absolutely nothing? I'll mention in a bit that while it's possible it means nothing it's also possible it could mean a lot.

Player B has the same SLG as Player A without all of those hits. So he will be hitting more XBH than Player A. Will that drive in just as many runs to overcome those times he walks instead of hit?

 

Player A: 500pa 335outs 145 1b 0 3b 20hr 0bb .330/.330/.450

Player B: 500pa 335outs 50 1b 1 3b 34hr 80bb .202/.330/.450

 

Player A has 80 more hits than Player B. How many come in a situation that makes it better than a walk? Does it counter the fact that Player B has more HRs that always result in a run? Every time Player B draws a walk, it guarantees at least four pitches during that at bat. You also can't defend a walk with a defensive gem. If forced to, I would say Player A is the better player. But I believe they are so close that it is really splitting hairs to argue about it. We can look at the OPS and see they are pretty equal, and that is what they are. You would have to use better (and harder to calculate off the top of your head) stats to really see who is better.

[umphrey]

They don't weigh walks the same as singles in stuff like wOBA. A walk is about 78% as good as a single for 2012 wOBA, for example.

[logan82]

They don't weigh walks the same as singles in stuff like wOBA. A walk is about 78% as good as a single for 2012 wOBA, for example.

Right. Nobody ever said a hit was as good as a walk. If you have to start talking about specific situations it becomes a much much smaller amount of the time when it makes a difference. Guy on first a single may move him past 2b so it would be the same thing as a walk.

 

Over the course of 500 at bats player A has line of .330/.330/.450. Player B has a line .200/.330/.450. You are going to argue player B is just as valuable as player A because player A didn't draw any walks? 65 hits instead of 65 walks means absolutely nothing? I'll mention in a bit that while it's possible it means nothing it's also possible it could mean a lot.

Yup, probably about the same. I would look at wOBA though. Player A probably has a bit more value. Not much though since the other guy hits for more power.

 

So it is about TOTAL production but how often you get a hit is worthless. To me those statements contradict each other.

Again, the type of hits you get matter. BA doesn't tell you anything about that. HR, triples, and doubles are better than singles.

 

Likewise, people always argue strikeouts mean nothing, but again, it depends on the situation when the strikeout happens. A strikeout with a guy on third and one out is a lot worse than a strikeout with the bases empty and two out. When you have a guy like Weeks who strikes out so often, undoubtedly there are going to be a lot of cases where those strikeouts are lot more damaging then an outcome, say a flyout to CF or or a ground out to second base, would be.

Strikeouts matter but they are already taken into account as outs in other stats. An out is an out is an out. I think you would need to change something like 100k into outs in play to make a difference of one run over the course of a season.

 

Again, when evaluating a player you can't look at just specific situations. Look at things on a per team basis and you will see that strikeouts and batting average have almost no correlation at all with runs scored while OBP, SLG and OPS have a much much stronger correlation with runs scored.

 

If you want to continue to look at small samples there is no common ground to discuss this.

 

The eye test should only be used for defense(in conjunction with the stats) and when you don't have a good sample of PA. It has been shown over and over again that a person's observations are usually faulty at best.

 

Please, I beg you to do some reading on statistics. Especially sample sizes.

 

Interesting note, I would say Ichiro was roughly equivalent to Weeks as a hitter over their careers.

 

WARP of 50.4 compared to 14.6 is roughly equivalent? Ok....

On a per year basis. WARP is a counting stat.

[paul253]

Please, I beg you to do some reading on statistics. Especially sample sizes.

 

You're right there is no point in discussing this further. I think Weeks is an average at best hitter and you obviously disagree. I am a little baffled by this size statement though. Pretty everything I've mentioned as far as Weeks goes are career averages. Hardly a small sample size.

[Funketown]

Keep in mind that Ichiro has really seen his career line drop over his last 2000 PA's. He's 40 years old now.

 

That's interesting to me that singles are weighted 1.25 times more than walks. It makes sense that they should be a bit higher, but I would have thought it to be around 1.10 or 1.15 times as high. I wonder how much the value of singles, relative to walks, has maybe increased due to the lower run environment.

[logan82]

When you start talking about situational hitting the samples sizes become to small to draw any predictive value from them.

 

You also are not taking into consideration the skill of the base runners who were usually on base in front of Weeks. He has hit at the top of the order for the majority of his career.

[logan82]

Keep in mind that Ichiro has really seen his career line drop over his last 2000 PA's. He's 40 years old now.

Weeks has also had a dip in production. Ichiro's best year was 2004 with a 131 WRC+ and .375 wOBA. Weeks 2010 127/.368. Obviously when you take defense and longevity/health into account Ichiro is a much more valuable player but their career wOBA and WRC+ are almost exactly the same.

 

It is actually very interesting to compare the two using OBP/SLG/OPS then WRC+ and wOBA. They are guys who get their value in different ways.

 

Weeks

.346/.422/.768

 

Ichiro

.363/.417/.780

 

wOBA/WRC+/ISO

Weeks .340/108/.175

Ichiro .337/109/.096

[thebruce44]

Over the course of 500 at bats player A has line of .330/.330/.450. Player B has a line .200/.330/.450. You are going to argue player B is just as valuable as player A because player A didn't draw any walks? 65 hits instead of 65 walks means absolutely nothing? I'll mention in a bit that while it's possible it means nothing it's also possible it could mean a lot.

Player B has the same SLG as Player A without all of those hits. So he will be hitting more XBH than Player A. Will that drive in just as many runs to overcome those times he walks instead of hit?

 

Player A: 500pa 335outs 145 1b 0 3b 20hr 0bb .330/.330/.450

Player B: 500pa 335outs 50 1b 1 3b 34hr 80bb .202/.330/.450

 

Player A has 80 more hits than Player B. How many come in a situation that makes it better than a walk? Does it counter the fact that Player B has more HRs that always result in a run? Every time Player B draws a walk, it guarantees at least four pitches during that at bat. You also can't defend a walk with a defensive gem. If forced to, I would say Player A is the better player. But I believe they are so close that it is really splitting hairs to argue about it. We can look at the OPS and see they are pretty equal, and that is what they are. You would have to use better (and harder to calculate off the top of your head) stats to really see who is better.

 

So you're saying in order to refute statistics one has to correctly use more statistics?! Mindblowing...math is hard and stuff.

[Funketown]

Career wise it is surprising how Ichiro and Weeks stack up in terms of OBP and SLG. Of course when considering how good Of a player Ichiro was/is, we need to remember that he only came over at age 27, and was one of the best players in NPB around age 20. Had Ichiro been signed to a MLB deal at age 20, and played seven more seasons in MLB, he probably would have bested Rose's 4256 career hits by the end of his career. That would have been a fun record chase over the next few years, but oh well.

 

Maybe it's right that Weeks just aged really quickly with how beat up he has been in his career.

[xisxisxis]

Interesting note, I would say Ichiro was roughly equivalent to Weeks as a hitter over their careers.

 

WARP of 50.4 compared to 14.6 is roughly equivalent? Ok....

 

On a per year basis. WARP is a counting stat.

 

So when you said career you meant yearly rate stats? Ok....

 

And of course it was just pure luck that Ichiro was healthy all those years and played complete seasons while weeks rarely plays more than 130 games in a year....

 

So in those games where Weeks has played and Ichiro has played (roughly 1000 games) then Weeks is as good a hitter, while the other 531 games when their careers have overlapped and Ichiro has played and weeks has been out, they don't matter. Ok...

[logan82]

Interesting note, I would say Ichiro was roughly equivalent to Weeks as a hitter over their careers.

 

WARP of 50.4 compared to 14.6 is roughly equivalent? Ok....

 

On a per year basis. WARP is a counting stat.

 

So when you said career you meant yearly rate stats? Ok....

 

And of course it was just pure luck that Ichiro was healthy all those years and played complete seasons while weeks rarely plays more than 130 games in a year....

 

So in those games where Weeks has played and Ichiro has played (roughly 1000 games) then Weeks is as good a hitter, while the other 531 games when their careers have overlapped and Ichiro has played and weeks has been out, they don't matter. Ok...

Yup, that is exactly what I meant.

[Invader3K]

It's just come out from Adam McCalvy and others that Weeks is done for the season. Hamstring surgery is expected. Hopefully he can get fully rehabilitated in the off-season and come back strong in 2014.

[torts]

whelp, there you guys go, problem solved!!

[igor67]

Hunter is going to get lonely in AAA.

[craigharmann]

It's Scooter's time! Now, just DFA Yuni, being up Morris, and let's get an extended view of what these young guys can do.

[torts]

cant wait for Yuni to be the starting 2B for the rest of the season

[torts]

not blue

[Funketown]

not blue

 

It will be amusing to see his chase of -2.4 WAR. Not blue.

[brewmann04]

If any team offers the Brewers anything for Weeks in the winter . DM needs to make it.

[The stache]

What team is going to offer anything for a guy that has turned into a .210 hitter with a little power and terrible defense...coming off of season-ending surgery?

[chickinbrickin]

I wish weeks wouldn't have folded his ankle in half. He was coming off a great year in 2010 and was on pace for an even better 2011, and was putting it together. He was arguably a top 5 second baseman at that time, but has never been the same since.

 

He is at the point in his career where the injures never fully heal, and it is essentially downhill.