Rickie Weeks returns to form [Latest: Weeks is done for the season, surgery likely. See post #91]

[logan82]

Here, let me take your simple argument and make my own, Yuni is just as good a hitter as Braun, he has more HR's and the same number of RBI's as him.

That is a real poor example and not even close to the argument MNBrew is making, really reaching to try to make a case for the horrible play of Weeks the last two years.

You just can't ignore something a player does to add value. He said "my point is that he's become just about as worthless with the bat as Yuni when he's not getting on base by not swinging the bat" which while that may be true, doesn't make Weeks anything similar to Yuni as a hitter. It would be like going back to 2011 and saying "if you don't look at defense Yuni and Gomez are basically the same player."

 

If you can't arbitrarily take out stats you certainly can't say if Weeks wasn't such a bad defender he would be decent. He is not a good defender and can't hit so he is not a good player and should not be starting.

Sure I can. I said he wasn't decent this year. Especially at his salary.

 

Rickie is entering his later theoretical prime years. I don't know why some can't simply accept he's probably on the decline.

Probably true. It isn't like Gennett is likely to be an upgrade though. We have to hope Weeks gets better next year.

[JohnBriggs12]

Weeks has been historically bad with RISP. I dare say among regulars in MLB, that his .118 BA with RISP is the worst in the major leagues. I know the modern stat theory is really to ignore situation hitting and that all hitting is random. To some extent that is valid but the key word is some.

 

Some will remember the 92 team that nearly beat out the Jays. Yes that team had Yount, Molitor, Surhoff, and ROY Listach but the guy who kept getting clutch hit after clutch hit was the 9th place hitter Scott Fletcher who with RISP hit .336 and with 2 out and RISP hit .344.

[Invader3K]

Probably true. It isn't like Gennett is likely to be an upgrade though. We have to hope Weeks gets better next year.

 

I'm of the mindset that "Hope is not a plan."

 

He'll stay on the team and probably continue his trend of hitting poorly except for one or maybe two hot months. No one should be surprised next season when it happens. The Brewers are simply in the situation where they need to wait for his contract to run out at this point.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The biggest problem for the Brewers is right now they're on the hook for another $10M+ to have Weeks continue stinking at 2B next season, when they could get similar production (or lack thereof) at that position for about $500K. For a small market team, Weeks is paid to be a middle of the order run producer and run scorer, while playing a position that doesn't normally require a ton of offensive production to be valuable. Weeks is paid for his bat, not his glove, and the fact that he's been terrible overall for the past few seasons leaves no room to remain optimistic for 2014.

 

No, Weeks isn't as bad as Yuni B is statistically. Throw in what his contract assumes him to be, and I'd argue he's worse. Remember, Weeks is supposed to be an everyday starter - Yuni B was signed this year to be a backup utility infielder. Injuries all over the infield and terrible play by the other backups warranted more ABs from Yuni B. early this season. The fact that Weeks' #'s are even comparable to Yuni B's is an indictment on Weeks. I don't get why Yuni B's still on the team aside from that he's healthy and the Brewers don't want to add too many more young players to the 40-man roster, but Yuni B is the last thing the Brewers need to worry about moving forward.

[gregmag]

Probably true. It isn't like Gennett is likely to be an upgrade though. We have to hope Weeks gets better next year.

 

I'm of the mindset that "Hope is not a plan."

 

Fair enough, but that raises the question what the plan should be. Certainly the scenario where Gennett provides more production next year than Rickie has this year requires a good bit of hope, because there's no evidence that Scooter is a major league hitter.

 

As others have said, we can't trade Weeks. I think the idea that he may be in decline is plausible, especially because 2bs historically age quickly and badly. Weeks has put a lot of work into his fielding (whatever the results), and like all 2bs he has taken a lot of knocks. But his hot stretches indicate that he still has some serious ability to hit.

 

Right now a continuation of the Weeks-Gennett soft platoon seems to be the likeliest plan for next year, and it may be the best. Put Rickie in the best positions to succeed. See whether Scooter can improve. Both pieces of that plan rely on hope, but I think both hopes are rationally grounded. The alternative would be to cut bait on one or both of the guys we have and go outside the organization. That's great if an opportunity presents itself, but (especially given the sunk cost of Rickie's salary) I doubt we'll find a clearly better solution.

[reillymcshane]

It is not uncommon for high on-base, power hitting types to age rather quickly (or early). While Rickie is a 2B, and was never slow, his numbers look more like a corner IF or OF.

 

I have not watched that many games the last couple of years, but I'm wondering if Rickie is simply aging quickly. The ankle injury, the hard play, etc., saps him of some of his speed. The walks are still there, but he's lost a little power, lost a little quickness. It ads up. We're left with a guy with declining skills.

 

Like I said, I haven't watched him that much, so I'm just sort of playing along with some theories on why he has struggled this year.

 

I do think that his play at 2B has gotten really bad - especially after the ankle injury.

 

I love Rickie. I like that he plays hard, never makes excuses. But I just have to wonder if he's lost it.

 

Maybe losing some weight would help him. He always was kind of a big guy for 2B.

[logan82]

Probably true. It isn't like Gennett is likely to be an upgrade though. We have to hope Weeks gets better next year.

 

I'm of the mindset that "Hope is not a plan."

 

He'll stay on the team and probably continue his trend of hitting poorly except for one or maybe two hot months. No one should be surprised next season when it happens. The Brewers are simply in the situation where they need to wait for his contract to run out at this point.

Hope is not a plan but what else can you do? Eat the contract and bring in somebody else I guess but at this point I don't think that is any better. Considering the position of the rest of the team I wouldn't want to bring in somebody else except maybe in trade, maybe. Unless we improve our pitching I think we have to just ride it out.

 

I don't think Weeks is tradeable at this point. If it was somebody else in a similar position and the Brewers traded for him I would be upset if the Brewers traded for him and took on his salary.

[danzig6767]

 

Fair enough, but that raises the question what the plan should be. Certainly the scenario where Gennett provides more production next year than Rickie has this year requires a good bit of hope, because there's no evidence that Scooter is a major league hitter.

 

As others have said, we can't trade Weeks. I think the idea that he may be in decline is plausible, especially because 2bs historically age quickly and badly. Weeks has put a lot of work into his fielding (whatever the results), and like all 2bs he has taken a lot of knocks. But his hot stretches indicate that he still has some serious ability to hit.

 

Right now a continuation of the Weeks-Gennett soft platoon seems to be the likeliest plan for next year, and it may be the best. Put Rickie in the best positions to succeed. See whether Scooter can improve. Both pieces of that plan rely on hope, but I think both hopes are rationally grounded. The alternative would be to cut bait on one or both of the guys we have and go outside the organization. That's great if an opportunity presents itself, but (especially given the sunk cost of Rickie's salary) I doubt we'll find a clearly better solution.

 

Part of any plan for Weeks next year has to be for not allowing him to get enough at bats for his 2015 option to vest unless he hits significantly better.

[paul253]

I have a theory about Weeks that nobody ever seems to consider. He was never a good hitter to begin with. Even before his last two terrible seasons he was only a career .255 hitter. His ability to get on base masks how bad a hitter he actually is. As if often the case in sports, he was given his contract based on two good years, not his career numbers. While I didn't expect his BA to be this low, I would have been just as surprised to see him hit .320. The Brewers are stuck with him. All they can do is make sure he doesn't hit that vesting option.

[Funketown]

I don't know how anybody can say Weeks was never a good hitter, that's pretty clear hyperbole.

 

Weeks' career batting line is .247/.346/.423, for a career wRC+ of 108. That's 9th out of the 35 second baseman who have compiled 2500 PAs since 2005.

 

So yes, he was a good hitter.

[paul253]

So yes, he was a good hitter.

 

He has never been a good overall hitter. He is good in certain areas (most notably getting on base and power) but that's about it. He can't hit for average. He strikes out a ton. He's not a situational hitter either. If the Brewers were down by a run in bottom of the 9th with guys on second and third and two out, I could think of at least six other Brewer's players I'd rather see up than Weeks (Aoki, Ramirez, Braun, Gomez, Lucroy, Segura). It's like that every year with him.

 

Also, I don't know much about this wRC+ statistic but second base, along with catcher, may be one of the two the least offensive-minded positions. Ranking high amongst second basemen doesn't necessarily mean he's a good hitter. I'd be willing to guess that even though he ranks high amongst second basemen he ranks relatively low compared to all players.

[Funketown]

100 is average, so he has been significantly better than average over the course of his career.

 

Getting on base and hitting for power are far more important than a high K-rate and a mediocre batting average. He has been very good at hitting with power and taking walks. That's pretty much a sufficient condition to being an above average hitter, regardless of K-rate, BA, etc.

[logan82]

He can't hit for average. He strikes out a ton. He's not a situational hitter either.

I think you are starting at the bottom of the list of good stats to judge a hitter on. Way at the bottom.

[trwi7]

He is good in certain areas (most notably getting on base and power) but that's about it.

 

So the two things you want a hitter to be good at?

[Fear The Chorizo]

What's frustrating on Weeks is that his production is always at the extremes, the only consistent thing about him is that he's streaky. When he gets hot he'll go on 1-2 week rolls that shoot his slugging and OBP percentages up, then he'll go back to into a slump. When he slumps, he's like another pitcher hitting in the lineup. When he's hot, he's an all star caliber hitter.

 

At the end of a season, Weeks' slash #'s are overall respectable, especially for a 2B (then again an .670 OPS and a .356 slg % isn't respectable for 2013 at all). But the reason his RBI #'s and other secondary stats are terrible is because his hot streaks don't last nearly as long as his bad slumps. Those counting stats need consistent production to accumulate. He's only scored 40 runs and driven in 24, with almost half of those RBI's by driving himself in with 10HR. Granted, runs scored and RBI have alot to do with teammates producing around him, but those #'s are brutal.

 

Now that he's hurt again, unfortunately another recurring issue with him is injuries.

[paul253]

I think you are starting at the bottom of the list of good stats to judge a hitter on. Way at the bottom

 

So how often someone gets a hit is way at the bottom of how to judge someone's hitting ability? Ok.

So the two things you want a hitter to be good at?

 

I am just curious but who do you consider to be a better hitter. Adam Dunn or Tony Gwynn? Dunn has the higher career OPS so obviously it must be him, even though his career BA is 99 points lower than Gwynn's. Adam Dunn is a better hitter than Ichiro too, I guess (the same Ichiro who had over 200 hits 10 seasons in a row).

[jerichoholicninja]

Weeks' numbers aside, is there any non-pitcher that swings through and misses as many fastballs down the middle as he does? For a guy who supposedly has fast hands he completely misses a lot of hittable pitches.

[logan82]

I think you are starting at the bottom of the list of good stats to judge a hitter on. Way at the bottom

 

So how often someone gets a hit is way at the bottom of how to judge someone's hitting ability? Ok.

 

So the two things you want a hitter to be good at?

 

I am just curious but who do you consider to be a better hitter. Adam Dunn or Tony Gwynn? Dunn has the higher career OPS so obviously it must be him, even though his career BA is 99 points lower than Gwynn's. Adam Dunn is a better hitter than Ichiro too, I guess (the same Ichiro who had over 200 hits 10 seasons in a row).

Which year are you talking about? Are you talking their entire career? I would have to look into it.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Tony Gwynn Career OPS - 0.847, OBP - 0.388

Ichiro Suzuki Career OPS - 0.780, OBP - 0.363

 

Adam Dunn Career OPS - 0.865, OBP - 0.368

[Outlander]

Are you talking their entire career? I would have to look into it.

Come on now, you really have to look into it to determine if Tony Gwynn or Adam Dunn is a better hitter. I assume you have seen both play, sometimes all you have to do is use your eyes and not go too far into the numbers. He had a .338 career batting average and hit over .350 for five consecutive years, batting average does still means something contrary to what some say.

[Funketown]

Gwynn got on base almost 40% of the time he went to the plate in his career. He was a great hitter, though I probably wouldn't put him in my top 50 all time. By wRC+ or OPS+, Gwynn has a pretty sizable lead on Dunn (something like 132 to 125 career).

 

There's not a big difference between a player who hits .230/.400/.450 and one that hits .350/.400/.450. That's the point people are making here with batting average. It is important insofar as it determines how often an individual gets on base, but in isolation isn't particularly meaningful or valuable.

[logan82]

Are you talking their entire career? I would have to look into it.

Come on now, you really have to look into it to determine if Tony Gwynn or Adam Dunn is a better hitter. I assume you have seen both play, sometimes all you have to do is use your eyes and not go too far into the numbers. He had a .338 career batting average and hit over .350 for five consecutive years, batting average does still means something contrary to what some say.

If you want to do a good analysis yes. Provided there are enough concentrated PA to make a good determination of a players estimated value. Using the eye test is at the bottom of the list if you have enough PA.

[paul253]

If you want to do a good analysis yes. Provided there are enough concentrated PA to make a good determination of a players estimated value.

I understand you don't want to concede the point but please, please do not suggest Adam Dunn is a better hitter than 8 time NL batting champion Tony Gwynn or two time AL batting champion Ichiro.

That's the point people are making here with batting average

 

No, the point at least two people are making is that batting average is almost worthless. I completely disagree, at least when looking at how good of a hitter is. I realize people value different things, but I don't understand why, in this context, hitting a home run is so much more important than how often you actually get a hit.

[TooLiveBrew]

If you want to do a good analysis yes. Provided there are enough concentrated PA to make a good determination of a players estimated value.

I understand you don't want to concede the point but please, please do not suggest Adam Dunn is a better hitter than 8 time NL batting champion Tony Gwynn or two time AL batting champion Ichiro.

That's the point people are making here with batting average

 

No, the point at least two people are making is that batting average is almost worthless. I completely disagree, at least when looking at how good of a hitter is. I realize people value different things, but I don't understand why, in this context, hitting a home run is so much more important than how often you actually get a hit.

There's not a serious argument that Dunn is a better contact hitter than Gwynn. But Dunn walked enough & hit enough HRs that their overall production is similar.

[torts]

dont worry, he's on the DL now