Trade Ramírez?

[brewcrewdue80]

I think that it's too little too late regarding Ramirez. I'd be pretty surprised if anyone would take on that salary for next season without asking for a big chunk of it from the Brewers, and I wouldn't do that

 

See New York Yankees 3b of 2014...ARod suspended. Youkilis gone. Oh and DH? BRef lists Yankees DH as Hafner. 3 Players all of whom will be gone for 2014. Don't know who we could get from the Yankees. I guess it really all depends how much of ARam's salary they can handle to remain under the luxury tax threshold. But the Yanks are who I see working a trade with for ARam for 2014 season.

[nate82]

I think that it's too little too late regarding Ramirez. I'd be pretty surprised if anyone would take on that salary for next season without asking for a big chunk of it from the Brewers, and I wouldn't do that

 

See New York Yankees 3b of 2014...ARod suspended. Youkilis gone. Oh and DH? BRef lists Yankees DH as Hafner. 3 Players all of whom will be gone for 2014. Don't know who we could get from the Yankees. I guess it really all depends how much of ARam's salary they can handle to remain under the luxury tax threshold. But the Yanks are who I see working a trade with for ARam for 2014 season.

 

The Brewers would have to pay at least half of Ramirez salary for next year plus the $4m buyout for the Yankees to be interested at all. Then there is the issue of the Yankees having basically nothing that they would trade for Ramirez. The Yankees minor league system is worse than the Brewers right now.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think that it's too little too late regarding Ramirez. I'd be pretty surprised if anyone would take on that salary for next season without asking for a big chunk of it from the Brewers, and I wouldn't do that

 

See New York Yankees 3b of 2014...ARod suspended. Youkilis gone. Oh and DH? BRef lists Yankees DH as Hafner. 3 Players all of whom will be gone for 2014. Don't know who we could get from the Yankees. I guess it really all depends how much of ARam's salary they can handle to remain under the luxury tax threshold. But the Yanks are who I see working a trade with for ARam for 2014 season.

 

The Brewers would have to pay at least half of Ramirez salary for next year plus the $4m buyout for the Yankees to be interested at all. Then there is the issue of the Yankees having basically nothing that they would trade for Ramirez. The Yankees minor league system is worse than the Brewers right now.

 

Why does it have to be who the Yankees have in just their minor league system? Looking at players on their roster, Vidal Nuno? SP/Long Reliever? Lefty. Looks just like the type of SP that Melvin pulls off the scrapheap/non usage by a team and gets a season's worth of solid production over 2seasons of time. Take a RH 3b/Utility guy like David Adams to platoon with Francisco/Gennett. He at least appears to have a positive on defense and his career Minors OPS is .817 so maybe he will handle the bat better then he has this season.

Considering what we've paid for Ramirez..16mil these 2 seasons paying half of the 16mil owed next season to free up 8mil of salary to pick up two cheap depth type players works for me. At least when I'm in the thought process that the injury risk is too big to hold on to Ramirez for a great talent at his price vs. getting cheap added depth on the roster that is younger. I'll take the depth, and use that 8mil. on hopefully someone who will provide some impact on the team.

Could we do better? For sure. But it's the matter of will any other team after the Yankees take Ramirez at his price/age and actually need a 3b? The Yankee Franchise can't commit to going in to 2014 selling to their fans Adams as their starting 3b. With Arod's suspension but still 4years remaining of contract, it makes it unlikely they splash the cash to sign a FA 3b for 3-4years/the FA not willing to sign to a 1yr/2yr contract. So to me it just looks like a solid fit for NY.

[Outlander]

I agree that the Yankees are a decent fit, they need somebody to play out there while A-Rod is gone in 2014 and I think Ramirez is a better option than signing another guy to a big contract. I don't think they have the prospects to get a guy like Headley or even Dominguez of the Astros. Considering that A-Rod may be gone for part of 2015 also the option year for Ramirez may not be a turn off either. Could then split time at 3B/DH with Rodriguez/Ramirez the second half of 2015.

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree that the Yankees are a decent fit, they need somebody to play out there while A-Rod is gone in 2014 and I think Ramirez is a better option than signing another guy to a big contract. I don't think they have the prospects to get a guy like Headley or even Dominguez of the Astros. Considering that A-Rod may be gone for part of 2015 also the option year for Ramirez may not be a turn off either. Could then split time at 3B/DH with Rodriguez/Ramirez the second half of 2015.

 

It's a one sided match. Yankees get what they want. Brewers get minimal at best salary relief and a non entity minor leaguer or two. The Brewers are far better off keeping him going into 2014, then waiting for a market that could include more teams with more to offer in July. If they do happen to contend, all the better still having him. There's really not an heir apparent in the system anyway.

[brewcrewdue80]

\ The Brewers are far better off keeping him going into 2014, then waiting for a market that could include more teams with more to offer in July.

 

Which is the opposite of why so many players weren't moved during the deadline...Because their were less teams who would be trading for a 3b. The largest market time is going to be around the Winter Meetings.

 

Btw, something that happens often is the 3 team trade. Yankees get ARam. Yankees send someone to some other team. That team sends over the minor league player to us. There's likely of course 3 other roster filler guys included in the deal.

 

The biggest thing for me in seeing ARam being NY's answer for 3b in 2014 is that I'm going to guess that ARam is capable to adjust to playing in NY under the pressure. Something a guy like Chase Headley I have serious doubts after the letdown season he's having after the breakout the year before. I'm going to take a guess Ivan Nova/Phil Hughes/Michael Pineda are 1 of the movable pieces the Yankees use.

[jerichoholicninja]

Since getting healthy and coming off the DL this is A-Ram's line:

 

.287/.386/.519/.904

 

This is his line from last year:

 

.300/.360/.540/.901

 

And this is his career:

 

.285/.345/.501/.846

 

Unless he hurts his knee again, I'm not too worried about a drop off next season. He might bring something nice back in a trade but I don' t think it will be nice enough to pull the trigger.

[JohnBriggs12]

With missing so many games this year, Ramirez really looks fresh right now. I'd like to see him back next year, but with fairly frequent rests. I think he'll be very productive playing 125-130 games.

[HiAndTight]

With missing so many games this year, Ramirez really looks fresh right now. I'd like to see him back next year, but with fairly frequent rests. I think he'll be very productive playing 125-130 games.

 

 

That's about where I see Aram at this point as well. I think if you treat him almost like a catcher(day game off after a night game usually, etc...) I think he can still put up a .285/.360/.500 line. And I know RBI's as a stat are so overrated, BUT he is a guy who like Carlos Lee always seems to be able to get the ball in the air with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs. A stabilizing force in the lineup.

 

Now I'd prefer to see him just gone and his salary and not worry about what we might be able to get at the trade deadline next year, either at the bequest of Mark A or at Melvin's direction, the Brewers have never really shown themselves to be a team that is willing to stripe down and rebuild. I think that's the obvious path right now, but since it's unlikely to happen, I'm happy to go into next season with Ramirez at 3rd, taking a cautious approach and if the season goes as I expect it will, then at the trade deadline, he may very well have some value to a team like the Yankees or Angels or whomever. It's impossible to guess at this point where teams will be injury wise and who will be in contention.

[monty57]

From milwaukeebrewers.com:

 

As expected, third baseman Aramis Ramirez was absent from the Brewers' starting lineup Thursday after re-injuring his balky left knee during Wednesday's scrum with the Braves. But Ramirez expressed more hope about playing in at least one more game this season.

 

If there was any way to fix his knee through surgery, he should have had it done a couple of months ago. Bad knees don't generally get back to 100% through rest. They may feel better and let a player get on the field, but until they're fixed, they're going to keep going out. I'd guess Ramirez will either get it fixed as soon as the season is over, risking missing some of next year, or he will just hope resting it over the offseason will fix it, which will probably mean he'll be lucky if next season doesn't mirror this season. It would've been better for him to miss most of this season with surgery, and be back at 100% for all of next year.

 

As to trading him, no GM in his right mind would trade for Ramirez with his injuries and salary.

[TheCrew07]

It would've been better for him to miss most of this season with surgery, and be back at 100% for all of next year.

 

Exactly.

[jerichoholicninja]

Since coming off the DL he has a .915 OPS. I don't think the knee was a problem anymore.

[monty57]

Since coming off the DL he has a .915 OPS. I don't think the knee was a problem anymore.

 

I don't question that when the knee feels good, he should be able to hit, but if the knee were repaired, he wouldn't be sitting on the bench right now. He said that he doesn't even know when or how he "tweaked" it, just that it happened during the brawl. It will just as easily happen running the bases or fielding a grounder, or playing with his kids (does he have kids?) or doing yard work, or doing just about anything.

 

I know plenty of people with bad knees, and it doesn't take much to "tweak" the knee and knock them off their feet for a while. I expect that unless he can get the knee fixed (and who knows, maybe it's not something that can be fixed), he will always be one "tweak" away from the DL, and at the very least will need plenty of days off. If he can get the knee fixed, that's great. I just think he should have done it a couple of months ago rather than waiting for the offseason, which means he could potentially miss the start of next season. This season was over a couple of months ago, so we knew that Ramirez missing games wouldn't hurt the playoff chances. We don't know what next season will bring, and maybe Ramirez missing the first month or so will be the difference maker.

 

Just an opinion, but I'd think that best case is he starts 120 games next year, and worst case is he spends most of the year on the DL and retires once he stops getting paid. If you were a GM, would you give up anything to take on that liability?

[CheezWizHed]

My view on Ramirez is dependant on my team view:

 

In order for the Brewers to make the playoffs next year, they need (IMO):

- Ramirez (3B) and Hart (1B) to bounce back from injury and hit 800+ OPS

- Braun (RF) to return from suspension as the Braun of 2012.

- Kh Davis (LF) and Gennett (2B) to be real MLBers (maybe not even as good as now, but average play for their positions)

- Gomez (CF), Segura (SS), Lucroy © all to play like 2013

- A little shuffling in the BP, but not much

- Lohse, Gallardo, Peralta, Estrada pitching like the end of the year

- One more pitcher step up.

 

Its not impossible, but its a bit of a long shot also.

 

So the risk of carrying Ramirez and having him (alone) "tank" our season is pretty low. The upside on the other hand is pretty good. If he is healthy, he is a very good player. And if the Brewers aren't in contention and he is playing well, he is very tradeable next year.

 

So what is the point of selling low on him right now? There is good upside potential for next year and he isn't blocking anyone at 3B (quite the contrary).

[nate82]

 

So the risk of carrying Ramirez and having him (alone) "tank" our season is pretty low. The upside on the other hand is pretty good. If he is healthy, he is a very good player. And if the Brewers aren't in contention and he is playing well, he is very tradeable next year.

 

So what is the point of selling low on him right now? There is good upside potential for next year and he isn't blocking anyone at 3B (quite the contrary).

 

This is basically it unless a team comes in and offers a fairly good prospect I don't see a reason to trade Ramirez just to trade him. If you are not getting back something of value for Ramirez then I don't see the point in trading him.

[monty57]

If you are not getting back something of value for Ramirez then I don't see the point in trading him.

 

From a pure baseball talent standpoint sure, but the $20MM owed is a big factor, and moving players to save money when you are over-budget or when you don't feel you are a contender are done all the time. Not saying the Brewers will do this, but I don't think it's fair to say they'd trade him "for nothing." Money is "something of value," and we could save a lot of money by trading him for "nothing" if a team would take on most of his salary.

[TigerUppercut]

If you are not getting back something of value for Ramirez then I don't see the point in trading him.

 

From a pure baseball talent standpoint sure, but the $20MM owed is a big factor, and moving players to save money when you are over-budget or when you don't feel you are a contender are done all the time. Not saying the Brewers will do this, but I don't think it's fair to say they'd trade him "for nothing." Money is "something of value," and we could save a lot of money by trading him for "nothing" if a team would take on most of his salary.

 

"Saved" money is only valuable under the huge assumption that it's going to eventually be tangibly spent on the baseball team in some form. Beyond spending it this year (assuming Ramirez gets traded), there's no way to prove the money saved "enabled" us to make any future moves. Because of that, my outlook is and always has been spend it now because we have no way of knowing if it gets spent beyond what would have been done in the future.

[monty57]

If you are not getting back something of value for Ramirez then I don't see the point in trading him.

 

From a pure baseball talent standpoint sure, but the $20MM owed is a big factor, and moving players to save money when you are over-budget or when you don't feel you are a contender are done all the time. Not saying the Brewers will do this, but I don't think it's fair to say they'd trade him "for nothing." Money is "something of value," and we could save a lot of money by trading him for "nothing" if a team would take on most of his salary.

 

"Saved" money is only valuable under the huge assumption that it's going to eventually be tangibly spent on the baseball team in some form. Beyond spending it this year (assuming Ramirez gets traded), there's no way to prove the money saved "enabled" us to make any future moves. Because of that, my outlook is and always has been spend it now because we have no way of knowing if it gets spent beyond what would have been done in the future.

 

Really? Money doesn't have value?

 

I think you're looking at things from the perspective of a fan. I look at things from the perspective of a business owner. I would argue strongly that money is valuable without some weird caveat that it needs to be spent in a specific fashion. As a business owner, I always like having excess cash in reserve, as you never know what the future holds. I will be a Brewer fan beyond next year, so I want the team to be run with a sustainable business model.

 

Maybe they use that $20MM to pay down debt, moving forward the date at which there will no longer be a huge debt payment, giving the team more free cash in the future to spend on the team. Maybe they keep it stored away so that when they actually have a decent chance at the playoffs, they can take on a big salary mid-season. Maybe they use it to upgrade a facility that will either improve future cash flows or player development. Maybe they use it to bring on better scouting and development personnel. Maybe there are about a zillion things they can do if they have some cash to spend that they can't do when every spare cent goes to the MLB roster.

[TigerUppercut]

If you are not getting back something of value for Ramirez then I don't see the point in trading him.

 

From a pure baseball talent standpoint sure, but the $20MM owed is a big factor, and moving players to save money when you are over-budget or when you don't feel you are a contender are done all the time. Not saying the Brewers will do this, but I don't think it's fair to say they'd trade him "for nothing." Money is "something of value," and we could save a lot of money by trading him for "nothing" if a team would take on most of his salary.

 

"Saved" money is only valuable under the huge assumption that it's going to eventually be tangibly spent on the baseball team in some form. Beyond spending it this year (assuming Ramirez gets traded), there's no way to prove the money saved "enabled" us to make any future moves. Because of that, my outlook is and always has been spend it now because we have no way of knowing if it gets spent beyond what would have been done in the future.

 

Really? Money doesn't have value?

 

I think you're looking at things from the perspective of a fan. I look at things from the perspective of a business owner. I would argue strongly that money is valuable without some weird caveat that it needs to be spent in a specific fashion. As a business owner, I always like having excess cash in reserve, as you never know what the future holds. I will be a Brewer fan beyond next year, so I want the team to be run with a sustainable business model.

 

Maybe they use that $20MM to pay down debt, moving forward the date at which there will no longer be a huge debt payment, giving the team more free cash in the future to spend on the team. Maybe they keep it stored away so that when they actually have a decent chance at the playoffs, they can take on a big salary mid-season. Maybe they use it to upgrade a facility that will either improve future cash flows or player development. Maybe they use it to bring on better scouting and development personnel. Maybe there are about a zillion things they can do if they have some cash to spend that they can't do when every spare cent goes to the MLB roster.

 

As someone that owns a successful business in the greater Milwaukee area, lots of maybe's in there. Maybe's equate to pond water in the business world. Maybe MA puts the money in his pocket and sells the team next year at a $300M+ profit. Seems like a pretty smart business move to me...maybe.

[TooLiveBrew]

As someone that owns a successful business in the greater Milwaukee area, lots of maybe's in there. Maybe's equate to pond water in the business world. Maybe MA puts the money in his pocket and sells the team next year at a $300M+ profit. Seems like a pretty smart business move to me...maybe.

Monty took time to respond with plenty of detail as to his thought process. It'd have been nice to see a reply in kind, & without the condescension.

 

"Lots of maybes" is the point that was being made -- there are almost countless ways that saved money can be utilized beyond player salaries.

[yoshii8]

If we do keep Ramirez, we need a very solid guy who can fill in at 3b/1b.

[brewcrewdue80]

With Green/Gamel waived you have to believe that 3b is Ramirez' job next season and there is 0 possiblity of him being traded away. Unless....The team goes in to a rebuild turn of events by trading away ARam/Gomez/Gallardo/Lohse and commits to Juan Francisco/Yuni manning 3b next season.

 

And that isn't going to happen I'll bet my paychecks in December on it. There's no way you play the way you do down the stretch moving yourself from a 5/6th draft position to 11th with thoughts of rebuilding in the back of your mind.

 

ARam will be on 3b 2014. And I'd figure 2015 as well barring some Coulter/Delmonico surge to make the Big League Roster.

[monty57]

With Green/Gamel waived you have to believe that 3b is Ramirez' job next season and there is 0 possiblity of him being traded away. Unless....The team goes in to a rebuild turn of events by trading away ARam/Gomez/Gallardo/Lohse and commits to Juan Francisco/Yuni manning 3b next season.

 

I think that's pretty spot on, and if they were going into rebuild mode, they would've kept Gamel and Green.

 

I've figured the final year of Ramirez's was pretty much untradeable since the day he was signed, but the Brewers' decision to fill their farm with OF and pitchers has left them no choice but to hold on to Ramirez.

 

My guess is that they'll try to save some money by trading Aoki for a minor leaguer and doing a salary dump trade of Weeks. They'll go with pre-arby guys for a lot of their bullpen and bench, as well as LF, SS, 2B and about half of the rotation. If they can find enough money from this, they'll probably re-sign Hart to a low-base, incentive-laden, one-year contract, and roll the dice that the old guys will stay healthy and productive while the young guys continue to outperform their expectations.

[CheezWizHed]

I look at things from the perspective of a business owner.

Maybe they use that $20MM to pay down debt...

 

If you really want to look at it from a business perspective, then this gets quite complicated:

- What is Ramirez's ROI for his $20M salary? If we dump Ramirez and replace him with Green in a cost savings mode, how many fans will we lose next season? How many fewer jerseys will be sold (or current product sent to Good Will)? Is he still a bigger draw than others at signing events or other non-baseball related activities?

 

- Are we at the point of where dumping Ramirez (i.e. getting really nothing in return) would signal to the fans that this is a lost season? What has happened to the Marlin's attendance after they when into salary dump mode?

 

- In the light of Ryan Braun's black eye on the team, would salary dump mode drive us into a bigger PR headache?

 

- Then remember that gaining a new customer (fan) costs 10x the amount of keeping a current customer.

 

- Then of course, there are tax implications for different types of debt. Moving money from one part of the budget to another isn't always a one-to-one prospect.

 

- And don't pretend that we will save all of the $20M either. If we are in salary dump mode, we certainly will have to eat some of that. So there are sunk costs to consider.

 

- Finally, is it wise to sell at the bottom? Or do we take the odds that he rebounds this year? Either to trade him at the deadline or simply help the team draw a crowd with competitive baseball?

 

Yeah, its not so black and white as simply taking his salary to use elsewhere.

[monty57]

Very true CheezWiz. There are two basic goals for a team: making money and winning games. While the two are correlated, they don't always go hand-in-hand.

 

I've said for a while now that I think maintaining attendance is a higher priority to Attanasio than maximizing wins long-term. The perception of "we could win this year," especially with the 2nd wild card team, keeps fans in the seats, keeping revenue up. Attanasio has said he also feels that fans like familiarity with players. I think Attanasio is deathly afraid of doing any moves that will give fans the perception that they aren't "going for it" in a particular season, and he never wants to trade a "name" the fans know, and both are purely based on worries of lost revenue. I think that's short-term thinking, and I think that is why we're in a bit of a mess as a franchise, and will continue to be until longer-term plans are implemented.

 

I used to work with a guy who had worked in the Cubs system. He sat in GM meetings, and he said that was basically the way the Cubs were run for many years. Put just enough "name players" on the field that the fans will fill the park. You may occasionally get lucky and make it into the playoffs, but the real goal was to assure that the team would make money every year, and more often than not, the team was out of contention by July. I think that's what we can expect from the Brewers going forward.