Chances of competing in 2014?

[TooLiveBrew]

The Central's a pretty good division right now, when you factor in the front office talent. I think jerichoholicninja's question is probably the best way to analyze the OP question.

[RobertR]

Frankly, I think people are overrating other organizations, besides the Cardinals.

 

Epstein has never built up an organization from scratch. Not without the likes of Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, etc. also on board. Sure, he's had development successes, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Buchholz, and Lester among them, but I think it's a stretch to say that his farm systems have been the reason that the Red Sox have won. The cupboard is a lot barer in Chicago than it ever was in Boston.

 

Sure their plan could work out. It could also go the way of the KC Royals.

 

And, of course, the Pirates should be on the upswing. They've done what the Brewers did when they were bad, cashed in on some early draft picks, but we'll see if they make more out of this success than the Brewers did. It's not always a straight path upwards. Burnett is a free agent after this year and Grilli, Liriano, and Rodriquez are free agents next year. Yeah, they've got Locke, Cole, and Taillon to make up for those losses, but it wouldn't be totally shocking if there are some growing pains and that the Pirates don't draft as well when they're not picking really early.

 

Same with the Reds, a lot of their starting rotation is moving towards free agency in the next couple of years and they haven't made it out of the first round of the playoffs. Votto's contract could be a killer in a few years too. Phillips contract could be ugly by the end too. If they don't win it all in the next few years, they could find themselves in a straitjacket financially. Seriously, the Reds have over $150 million committed to Votto for his mid to late 30s years. He better be a hall of famer for that contract.

 

Melvin's been a ton smarter about handing out contracts for big money than the Reds.

 

All of which is not to be pollyanna-ish about the state of the Brewers and their farm system. But, I think there's a bit of "the grass is greener" going on here too. The Cardinals are likely at the top of their upswing right now and although I don't think they'll be bad any time in the near future, it also wouldn't surprise me if they have a couple of 85 win seasons as some of their stars age. The Reds aren't really improving as much as they're just maintaining at a fairly high level. They might not even make the playoffs this year or get knocked out in the wild card play in. The Pirates are clearly on an upswing, but again, we'll see where they peak and if they're as successful drafting later as they were drafting really early.

 

The Brewers clearly have to get their minors in better shape, and drafting early next year should help. But, I can say that I like their long-term financial flexibility better than the Reds and I think the Cubs have farther to go than is commonly perceived.

[TooLiveBrew]

I feel like it's always just easier to dismiss the argument that the Brewers could have been (or perhaps should be) run differently.

 

Yes, if we want to always think things could be awful, Melvin's average record of 82-80 isn't bad. But all of the other clubs in the division are building well at the moment. The Brewers have gotten old, and are way behind in terms of young talent. That's not me seeking to rip on Melvin, it's the honest truth.

[RobertR]

Who's dismissing the idea that the Brewers don't have to draft better? The mistakes there should demand that there be changes.

 

I'm not sure I agree with the "old" part though. I'd argue it's not that they've gotten old, but that their young starters weren't very good that's been the key downfall of the team. The only pitchers that they've trotted out over 30 have been Lohse, KRod, and Gonzalez and they've been real strengths. The struggles of Burgos, Fiers, Hellweg, Gallardo, Axford, Estrada, and Peralta don't appear to be age related with Estrada and Axford being the oldest of that group at 29 and 30, respectively.

 

That's simply a lack of talent and guys not being ready more than anything. If anything, the starting rotation was too young and inexperienced.

 

Offensively I'd agree that the Brewers could use an injection of youth at 3B and 2B, and just some talent period at 1B, but other than Aramis who's particularly old that will be back for the 2014 season? Yeah, Weeks and Aoki aren't young at this point but they're not so old that they should be counted out, and Segura, Gomez, Lucroy, Braun, Schaefer, Halton, Morris, Francisco, Gennett, Bianchi, and Maldonado is a young group.

 

I'm more worried about talent than age with this group. Yeah, Lohse and Aramis are a concern going forward and Weeks and Aoki are getting up there, but a) you play a real first baseman and b) you get good health out of Braun, and the starting lineup already looks a lot better going forward for several years.

 

I'd argue that it's not age that's caught up with the Brewers but their financial limitations and free agency. They had a lot of young cheap talent on the team and haven't been able to replace it as they've gotten up in arbitration and free agency because they haven't drafted well. And the fact that they were making playoff runs prevented them from supplementing their minor league system. You want to call it the "success cycle" and I think it's fair. Not that the Brewers couldn't have done a better job of extending their cycle, say if they drafted Homer Bailey instead of Mark Rogers, but I wouldn't characterize the Brewers as a particularly old team where this year's collapse was inevitable.

[logan82]

Ryan Braun isn't young anymore either.

[RobertR]

Under what definition is 29 old for a player?

 

I think we're making a mistake to argue age as the cause of the Brewer's downfall. 27 year old Yuni B and Alex Gonzalez would have been equally awful choices for 1B, for instance. Talent is the issue more than age.

[igor67]

I was reasonably critical over the years of a number of moves where Melvin tended to go with the veteran guy who was somewhat more expensive first over the internal option. They've generally done a pretty good job at opening the door to play the really good prospects. However looking back at that stretch and the performance of many of those lesser prospects I'm less confident that constantly churning with those prospects to keep costs down would have actually worked. It looks more like they had a pretty good sense of which guys could contribute rather than just assuming any guy with an .800 OPS in AAA could hack it for 1/4 the cost and assume the result would work. Which points back to not having drafted and/or developed as well for a stretch. I wonder if the decision to try and bulk up on pitchers was part of the problem? They had such good success with hitters, that maybe it was counterproductive for them to use so many high picks in that 2 or so year stretch?

[trwi7]

Under what definition is 29 old for a player?

 

It's not old but it's not young either which is what logan said.

[RobertR]

Under what definition is 29 old for a player?

 

It's not old but it's not young either which is what logan said.

 

Fair enough, but what's your point Logan? Is having a star player in his prime age a bad thing which dooms the Brewers to not being able to compete in 2014?

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm frustrated with this franchise this year as well. I think Melvin has done a good job overall, certainly the best since Harry Dalton, but hasn't risen to the level of elite GM.

 

But, I also think that some of the arguments aren't necessarily reflective of the actual situation. I think the evidence that Melvin's trades being the reason they can't compete now is not at all clearcut based on the careers of the guys traded. It's certainly been the young pitchers that have failed the Brewers this year more than the old pitchers. And injuries to key players have struck the older (Ramirez, Hart), in their prime (Braun, Estrada), and younger (Gamel) players in such a way that I don't think you can draw firm conclusions about the construction of the roster.

 

If the Brewers can't compete in 2014, I don't think we have to look any further than their drafts. It's not that they're old or won't give young guys a chance, if anything the opposite is true of their pitching staff giving young pitchers every chance to fail this year, as much as it's a combination of things and failed drafts being the underlying cause. The drafting may be enough reason for regime change, but I think we're overanalyzing beyond that with some issues that were beyond planning contributing to a season that's worse that it should be.

[logan82]

The Brewers have gotten old.

 

The discussion seemed to have moved beyond just talking about next year.

 

Considering Braun's history of nagging injuries he could start to decline at any time.

[monty57]

Frankly, I think people are overrating other organizations, besides the Cardinals.

 

Epstein has never built up an organization from scratch. Not without the likes of Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, etc. also on board. Sure, he's had development successes, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Buchholz, and Lester among them, but I think it's a stretch to say that his farm systems have been the reason that the Red Sox have won. The cupboard is a lot barer in Chicago than it ever was in Boston.

 

Sure their plan could work out. It could also go the way of the KC Royals.

 

And, of course, the Pirates should be on the upswing. They've done what the Brewers did when they were bad, cashed in on some early draft picks, but we'll see if they make more out of this success than the Brewers did. It's not always a straight path upwards. Burnett is a free agent after this year and Grilli, Liriano, and Rodriquez are free agents next year. Yeah, they've got Locke, Cole, and Taillon to make up for those losses, but it wouldn't be totally shocking if there are some growing pains and that the Pirates don't draft as well when they're not picking really early.

 

Same with the Reds, a lot of their starting rotation is moving towards free agency in the next couple of years and they haven't made it out of the first round of the playoffs. Votto's contract could be a killer in a few years too. Phillips contract could be ugly by the end too. If they don't win it all in the next few years, they could find themselves in a straitjacket financially. Seriously, the Reds have over $150 million committed to Votto for his mid to late 30s years. He better be a hall of famer for that contract.

 

Melvin's been a ton smarter about handing out contracts for big money than the Reds.

 

All of which is not to be pollyanna-ish about the state of the Brewers and their farm system. But, I think there's a bit of "the grass is greener" going on here too. The Cardinals are likely at the top of their upswing right now and although I don't think they'll be bad any time in the near future, it also wouldn't surprise me if they have a couple of 85 win seasons as some of their stars age. The Reds aren't really improving as much as they're just maintaining at a fairly high level. They might not even make the playoffs this year or get knocked out in the wild card play in. The Pirates are clearly on an upswing, but again, we'll see where they peak and if they're as successful drafting later as they were drafting really early.

 

The Brewers clearly have to get their minors in better shape, and drafting early next year should help. But, I can say that I like their long-term financial flexibility better than the Reds and I think the Cubs have farther to go than is commonly perceived.

 

Some good points made here. Every team in the division has better prospects than the Brewers, and I don't think it's close, but there are chinks in other teams' armor. This may just mean: as the Brewers scrape the bottom of the barrel, who will fight it out for the top, but let's look at the other teams.

 

The Cubs are past the downward swing of their big rebuild, and have a lot of young talent both on their MLB roster and in the minors. However, almost all of this is position player talent, with little pitching. Much like the Brewers seven or eight years ago, they seem to be about to enter a period where they'll be able to slug with the best of 'em, but will have to find pitching. They do have deep pockets, but will that be enough?

 

When the Reds got their TV deal, they immediately made huge extensions to several players on their roster. At that time, I equated the moves to the Phillies when they extended guys like Ryan Howard. They knew they could be good for a while, but they had to know that by the end of those deals, they would have some big salaries going to some players deep in their decline years. They, too have good prospects, but will they have enough pre-arby guys on the roster to make their payroll work, or will they be forced to dump some salaries in a few years?

 

I like how the Pirates are sitting, and I think they have a good chance to stay young and exciting for a long time. The rebuild is done, talent has arrived on the MLB level, with lots of talent still in the minors. To me, it will be interesting to see where they go from here. They're probably the best set up to do what I and some others here hoped the Brewers would do and cycle talent to remain competitive for the long run. But, they could always succumb to pressure and start trading away minor leaguers during their "window" that has now opened. Which direction will they go?

 

I can't rate the Cardinals. Whatever they do just seems to work out for them. Trade someone and the guys you get become key pieces. Sign a washed-up guy and he becomes an MVP candidate. Extend someone, and they stay productive and healthy. Don't sign someone and they collapse. Draft someone and they'll reach their ceiling. Etc. They're well run, and we need to run our organization well to compete with them.

 

I don't see the Brewers competing with any of these teams in the near future. If they finally decide to do some sort of rebuild, they'll still be running uphill for a while, because they're so far behind the rest, but at least we could get ourselves to a point where we could see where we could be competitive in the future.

[danzig6767]

 

Fair enough, but what's your point Logan? Is having a star player in his prime age a bad thing which dooms the Brewers to not being able to compete in 2014?

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm frustrated with this franchise this year as well. I think Melvin has done a good job overall, certainly the best since Harry Dalton, but hasn't risen to the level of elite GM.

 

But, I also think that some of the arguments aren't necessarily reflective of the actual situation. I think the evidence that Melvin's trades being the reason they can't compete now is not at all clearcut based on the careers of the guys traded. It's certainly been the young pitchers that have failed the Brewers this year more than the old pitchers. And injuries to key players have struck the older (Ramirez, Hart), in their prime (Braun, Estrada), and younger (Gamel) players in such a way that I don't think you can draw firm conclusions about the construction of the roster.

 

If the Brewers can't compete in 2014, I don't think we have to look any further than their drafts. It's not that they're old or won't give young guys a chance, if anything the opposite is true of their pitching staff giving young pitchers every chance to fail this year, as much as it's a combination of things and failed drafts being the underlying cause. The drafting may be enough reason for regime change, but I think we're overanalyzing beyond that with some issues that were beyond planning contributing to a season that's worse that it should be.

 

I agree with your post, especially about the drafting.

 

Pretty much ever since that wave of young players came up in Weeks, Braun, Fielder, Gallardo, Hardy, Hart, etc, three of which were top 10 pick, the farm system hasn't provided much of anything beyond some bench players and a few non-impactful bullpen guys. The drafting has been mostly terrible compared to others in the division and particularly at drafting/developing starting pitchers.

 

To me, the biggest mistake which Melvin looks to have made over the last four years or so is hiring Seid to replace Zduriencik. A quality scouting director is vitally important for any smaller market team and unless some of Seid's early picks start showing more promise and/or more recent picks show high promise, his failures could eventually end up bringing down Melvin more than anything else. But, as i said earlier, it was Doug who hired Seid, so he shares in the downturn at drafting/developing high quality young talent.

[RockCoCougars]

I really don't think this team has a chance to be very good next year. All that I hear about is Braun, Ramirez and Hart not replicating last year but what about Segura, Gomez and to a lesser extent Aoki playing out of their minds? There doesn't seem to be much help coming from the minors either. I'd be inclined to start the rebuild now, trade whoever you can, and get rid of all the scouting staff at the least. Hopefully, this would speed up the route back to competitiveness.

[RobertR]

Honestly, I'm content to see which way the market plays out. If it's a buyer's market, buy. If it's a seller's market, sell. The Brewers wanted to trade Prince Fielder and when nobody met their price, they went the other way and lo and behold, a Division Championship and trip to the NLCS followed. The Brewers don't need non-prospects. There's real talent on the team so you aren't held hostage by some plan that might not be optimal.

 

Obviously KRod, Axford, Ramirez, Weeks, and Lohse should be on the trading blocks up to the deadline, but there's no point to giving away Ramirez, Lohse, Gallardo, and Weeks as they could start in 2014 for the team. Same with Aoki in the offseason. If someone makes an offer worth your time, accept it, but nobody is holding a gun saying that the team needs to take garbage in return.

[RobertR]

 

Some good points made here. Every team in the division has better prospects than the Brewers, and I don't think it's close, but there are chinks in other teams' armor. This may just mean: as the Brewers scrape the bottom of the barrel, who will fight it out for the top, but let's look at the other teams.

 

The Cubs are past the downward swing of their big rebuild, and have a lot of young talent both on their MLB roster and in the minors. However, almost all of this is position player talent, with little pitching. Much like the Brewers seven or eight years ago, they seem to be about to enter a period where they'll be able to slug with the best of 'em, but will have to find pitching. They do have deep pockets, but will that be enough?

 

 

I'm curious on the statement that the Cubs have a lot of young talent on their MLB roster. Rizzo is young, but does he project as any kind of star or just kind of average-ish? Castro has talent, but he's extremely undisciplined as a hitter and very bad defensively, and he's not really improving. Barney is excellent defensively and can't hit. Samardzija, who's 28 btw, has his moments, but he's older than Gallardo and isn't really dominating. With the exception of Travis Wood, I look at their roster and wonder if anyone on it is going to be around when they theoretically start reaping the benefits of their farm system. A farm system that still is fairly weak on pitching talent.

[monty57]

 

Some good points made here. Every team in the division has better prospects than the Brewers, and I don't think it's close, but there are chinks in other teams' armor. This may just mean: as the Brewers scrape the bottom of the barrel, who will fight it out for the top, but let's look at the other teams.

 

The Cubs are past the downward swing of their big rebuild, and have a lot of young talent both on their MLB roster and in the minors. However, almost all of this is position player talent, with little pitching. Much like the Brewers seven or eight years ago, they seem to be about to enter a period where they'll be able to slug with the best of 'em, but will have to find pitching. They do have deep pockets, but will that be enough?

 

 

I'm curious on the statement that the Cubs have a lot of young talent on their MLB roster. Rizzo is young, but does he project as any kind of star or just kind of average-ish? Castro has talent, but he's extremely undisciplined as a hitter and very bad defensively, and he's not really improving. Barney is excellent defensively and can't hit. Samardzija, who's 28 btw, has his moments, but he's older than Gallardo and isn't really dominating. With the exception of Travis Wood, I look at their roster and wonder if anyone on it is going to be around when they theoretically start reaping the benefits of their farm system. A farm system that still is fairly weak on pitching talent.

 

That read poorly. I meant they have a lot of young talent, some on their MLB roster (Castro, Rizzo) and more in the minors. It read as if I meant they had a lot of young talent at the MLB level, but that wasn't what I meant.

[RobertR]

Fair enough, Monty. I do think that the Cubs are doing what they need to do. But, I also think it may take longer than is commonly thought. A lot of their talent is in A ball and probably isn't going to debut before 2015 at the earliest, assuming that they move through the minors on a straight trajectory with no setbacks, and it may take a few years before they fully hit their stride at the MLB level. I expect that the Cubs will be opening the check book for some big name free agents and moving some of their prospects in trades, so I'm not expecting this team solely built around young talent when they finally turn it around.

[brewcrewdue80]

Fair enough, Monty. I do think that the Cubs are doing what they need to do. But, I also think it may take longer than is commonly thought. A lot of their talent is in A ball and probably isn't going to debut before 2015 at the earliest, assuming that they move through the minors on a straight trajectory with no setbacks, and it may take a few years before they fully hit their stride at the MLB level. I expect that the Cubs will be opening the check book for some big name free agents and moving some of their prospects in trades, so I'm not expecting this team solely built around young talent when they finally turn it around.

 

Keep in mind the incoming Talent for Garza. And who knows? Maybe by dangling Samardzija they take all of the DBacks top prospect talent not named Bradley.

Bigger market and your exclamation of opening that checkbook, is bound to happen too. They need Pitching just like us and that in the end may be what keeps them down from excelling here in about 2years.

 

 

As to the topic. I said already I think it's foolish to believe we can compete when the surplus of talent from our minors isn't all that, when compared to the rest of the Central. See 2013 what injury problems and no depth result in? The pitching is still going to remain unknown after this season as it was heading in to this season. We questioned whether Fiers,Narveson,Thornburg,Estrada,Peralta,Rogers could fill in after Lohse and Gallardo. Only Peralta is shaping up to make it through this season, leaving the same questions with a few newer names.

 

 

It is still 11 days too early to really ask this question. Who knows how many of our current roster remains once the trade deadline comes?

[reillymcshane]

I get a (scary) feeling that the Brewers will try and win next year. That means keeping most everyone. Probably resign Hart as well. They'll hope for bounce backs from A-Ram, Braun, Weeks, Gallardo. And hope for Peralta to keep getting better. Then they'll add a mediocre veteran arm - say a Capuano-like pitcher - for a few million bucks. Combine that with Estrada coming back, and some young arms that could break into the rotation (Thornburg, Hellweg, Nelson), and they'll hope for the best. Gorzelanny is a wild card. If he keeps pitching well as a starter he might become a fixture. Never know.

 

Keeping the team intact, bringing back Hart and maybe a cheap starting pitcher, will cost us in the neighborhood of $95 million. I could see the team doing that.

 

The only trade I see them make this year is to unload K-Rod, since he's a FA after the season.

 

I know it would be a huge risk to try this - and I'm not saying it's a good idea - I just don't see Mark A. throwing in the towel. He doesn't seem the type.

 

If most everything goes right, maybe we have a chance to win the division.

[wisniewski]

I feel like it's always just easier to dismiss the argument that the Brewers could have been (or perhaps should be) run differently.

 

Yes, if we want to always think things could be awful, Melvin's average record of 82-80 isn't bad. But all of the other clubs in the division are building well at the moment. The Brewers have gotten old, and are way behind in terms of young talent. That's not me seeking to rip on Melvin, it's the honest truth.

 

Completely agree with this. I've been a Melvin homer and apologist for years, but I'm over kidding myself.

 

As for whether or not the team can compete next year...hard to say. It's troubling to read scouts say things like 'the Brewers have already packed it in' as has been posted here and other places several times this year. In baseball (and all sports for that matter) the worst thing that can happen is a culture of apathy setting in clubhouse or lockerroom.

[logan82]

As for whether or not the team can compete next year...hard to say. It's troubling to read scouts say things like 'the Brewers have already packed it in' as has been posted here and other places several times this year. In baseball (and all sports for that matter) the worst thing that can happen is a culture of apathy setting in clubhouse or lockerroom.

I don't believe for a second the Brewers players have packed it in. That is the kind of crap you always end up reading about bad teams.

[RobertR]

Yeah, the Brewers are bad this year, but the idea that they've packed it in seems like armchair psychoanalysis at its worst.

[RightFieldCoder]

As for whether or not the team can compete next year...hard to say.

 

It is hard to say. In the middle of 2010, were any of us thinking that we would win 96 games the next year? It really depends on the new players we bring in, but we certainly don't have the talent to go get some good arms.

 

It's troubling to read scouts say things like 'the Brewers have already packed it in' as has been posted here and other places several times this year. In baseball (and all sports for that matter) the worst thing that can happen is a culture of apathy setting in clubhouse or lockerroom.

I think it is a per game basis when they pack it in. I see the players pack it in after they see the starting pitcher give up 9 runs in the first 3 innings. The players spend the rest of the game going through the motions to wait until tomorrow. I don't blame them. They don't have the option that I have taken and leaving after 7 innings.

[DHonks]

I'm still not giving up on this year. 41 more wins till .500, 47 puts us in contention. Gotta beat up on the Central

[sauveb]

I'm still not giving up on this year. 41 more wins till .500, 47 puts us in contention. Gotta beat up on the Central

With our luck, we will win 47 games the rest of the year but it will take 48 to get in the playoffs.