Chances of competing in 2014?

[adambr2]

Here's what I think would need to happen:

 

Gomez and Segura continue to perform as they have. Braun returns to MVP form after MLB is unable to find him guilty of anything, or he is hit with a 50 game suspension that is served out in a lost season anyway.

 

Hart returns fully healthy on a 1 year deal, and Ramirez recovers in the off-season and rebounds to his 2012 form. Weeks avoids his major first half swoon, and the bullpen is a carbon copy of this year.

 

Most importantly, Peralta shows that his recent play hasn't been flukey as he buds into an ace, and with the return of Gallardo to pre-2012 form and Lohse putting up his usual numbers, the rotation becomes a strength.

 

There are a lot of variables here and it's somewhat a dangerous mentality for the organization. It's going to result in little deadline activity and is basically playing your same losing cards from this year and hoping for better results. But I think the organization may be having some of these same thoughts as the trade deadline approaches this year.

[fondybrewfan]

Its really anyone's guess; primarily because no one knows who will be on the pitching staff. However if you have Gomez, Segura, Lucroy, Braun, Ramirez,Weeks, and Schafer in the lineup I am pretty confident that the offense will be good enough to compete. Probably the only guy a lock to be in the rotation next year is Peralta. Our outlook completely changes if guys like Gallardo, Lohse, Ramirez, Weeks, etc get traded for guys that aren't going to contribute before 2015.

 

I think at this time in August we will have a much better idea if this is going to be a long term rebuild or not.

[DocLuna7]

Outside of the bullpen, (and injuries) the 2013 Brewers are nearly identical to the final few months of 2012 Brewers on paper. I guess the question for me boils down to whether or not the 2012 Brewers decent late surge is the true talent level of this team, or the 2012 first half and 2013 first half are more accurate. I tend to unfortunately settle on the pessimistic side and think that the second half of 2012 was the result of a variety of factors and that this year the team is playing to their "norm." That being said, I do think that the plan to go younger in the rotation, at least with Peralta, will give the team another quality arm over the long-haul.

[Funketown]

Aoki - Segura - Braun - Ramirez - Gomez - Hart - Lucroy - Weeks - Pitcher

 

Bring back Hart on a 1 year/$5 million deal if he's willing. If these guys stayed healthy, it would be an incredible lineup.

 

Gallardo - Lohse - Peralta - Oh dear...

 

If this team stayed healthy, I think they could possibly mash their way into contention. I just don't know if I can see that pitching staff competing...

[SRB]

The pitching staff would need to have a really, really lucky year. But it's not like we're the Astros; we still have a potentially elite offensive core.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hey, great. Optimism for 2014 with the same guys this year playing next. Albeit, one with healthy Braun,ARam,Hart, a fixed Weeks and continual success of Gomez,Aoki,Segura and Lucroy.

 

I'm going pessimism on this. St. Louis's pitching staff will be better next year. Pittsburgh's pitching staff will be better next season. Chicago will have more impact players on their team. Cincy could/should regress.

 

My problem with the idea of Milwaukee competing is that there's 0Aces on the pitching staff. Meanwhile St. Louis has Wainwright and Miller with Martinez/Rosenthal/ and Wacha to compliment. Pittsburgh has Cole and Taillon starting next season.

 

It takes the highest of hopefuls to realistically call this team competing in 2014. Calling so this year was w/o St. Louis knowing how Wainwright would pitch as well as replacing Carpenter and knowing if Miller would hold up. This was w/o Pitts. beginning this year with Cole or in the future Taillon, and questionable signings of Liriano/Martin, wondering if Marte would live up to hype, if McCutchen was capable of repeating a MVP type season.

Competing in 2014 vs. 2013 was counting on the Cubs being bad, something that will include Javier Baez next season along with a number of players likely added over this trade deadline from the Garza deal to name one. It's dependent on the Cubs not signing any impactful FA this next offseason.

 

We need a lot, no a TON of things to go right for the Brewers to consider themselves competitive for 2014 vs. the rest of the NL Central.

Gallardo being the 3.5ERA 200/200 pitcher he was prior to this season. Lohse continuing to be a 3.5ERA pitcher or better, Peralta to continue to improve, a successful addition of Jungmann or Nelson to the staff, and any number of SPs to be better than serviceable as #5s.

The bullpen thats about to be blown up, to be just as successful next season with newer players in new roles.

The injury bug to ignore the team next season.

 

It's just foolish. Not to mention going at 2014 with the idea of competing with the players above:Weeks,ARam,Gallardo,Aoki and Lohse means ignoring the opportunity to acquire future talent in trade and the end result meaning that a competitive team in 2014 would in turn SELL more future talent to see 2014 through to the Playoffs!

 

You want to see the team compete in 2014? Then watch Gomez traded to the Mets or Mariners this offseason for one of their Ace to bes Syndergaard/Wheeler or Walker/Hultzen That's the starting point imo for the Brewers to compete in 2014. Having an Ace to pair with Peralta and the future of Hellweg/Jungmann/Nelson for a Staff.

Hopefully a Lohse or Gallardo is moved for 1 impact talent to add to the team with the other being the Team's #3 in 2014.

Aoki is moved for 1 impact talent.

Whoever takes Aoki's place is immediately successful.

 

It's just such a long shot to be reality, that I hope in our fan interest the team looks for success beyond 2014 and not to 2014.

Let's recap the toughness to compete just in the Central alone but, teams like Washington,Atlanta,LAD,Arizona also being roadblocks with the talent on those teams to overcome. I don't just want Milwaukee to sneak in to a Wild Card spot and lose outlook. I want a team that has the ability to win it all.

[logan82]

I think we will be better next year by doing nothing. I don't think we are a playoff team next year unless we get some good talent back in trade before the start of next year. I think we are still the same low to 80's win team next year we were this year.

[SoupTown]

Goodness me. Leave all the same and we suddenly go from a zillion games unde .500 to a PLAYOFF team! Hooray! Doug and Mark have some season tickets for you to buy.

 

I thought this year we were a good team. The 'team' has proven to be not so good. I assume the same 'not so good team of 2013' will morph into a 'not so good team of 2014'. That is... the YEAR may change, but crappy player X in 2013, will be crappy player Y in 2014.

 

Me and Albert Einstein agree.

[Invader3K]

I think for the Brewers to really compete next year (and I define that as at least having a shot at a Wild Card spot), the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates all have to either severely underperform or all suffer a rash of injuries to key players.

[RobertR]

 

Gallardo - Lohse - Peralta - Oh dear...

 

If this team stayed healthy, I think they could possibly mash their way into contention. I just don't know if I can see that pitching staff competing...

 

3/5ths of an average / above average rotation is a bad thing?

 

I think there's reason to be optimistic about Jimmy Nelson being a part of that rotation starting sometime next year. Let's say we're looking at Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, Nelson, and Gorzelanny. I don't think it's too big a leap to project that rotation as average-ish. Yeah, it may lack a true ace, but there have been plenty of playoff teams without a true ace.

 

Couple that with an elite offense and a competent, although probably not elite bullpen, and maybe an acquisition at the trade deadline and there are certainly teams with less of a chance.

 

I think there's a lot of writing off a team which has, at least, 4 potential All Stars (Braun, Gomez, Segura, and Lucroy) in the starting lineup. Better health and a better bench could go a long ways. One of the keys to winning is to have stars, and the Brewers have stars.

 

Personally, I don't have an issue of seeing what you can put together via offseason acquisitions and giving it a go as long as you have MVP type stars in the lineup. If it doesn't work out, you sell at the deadline again.

[brewmann04]

they can compete next year if they make the Proper trades for prospects at the trade deadline.

[JohnBriggs12]

Slow starts buried them the last 2 years. Not coincidentally, Rickie Weeks has been awful in April and May both years.

 

I would feel a lot better about their chances in 2014 if someone else were playing 2B on opening day 2014.

 

A lot depends on the health of Ramirez and Hart who I think they will bring back if he shows he's fully healed but those guys make the lineup a heck of lot deeper. Granted those are 2 pretty big "ifs".

[Funketown]

 

Gallardo - Lohse - Peralta - Oh dear...

 

If this team stayed healthy, I think they could possibly mash their way into contention. I just don't know if I can see that pitching staff competing...

 

3/5ths of an average / above average rotation is a bad thing?

 

That's a significantly below average top three in the rotation. In the last three years, teams needed a sub-4.00 starters ERA to crack the top half of the NL. I'd expect maybe just a bit under that from those guys.

[trwi7]

I think there's reason to be optimistic about Jimmy Nelson being a part of that rotation starting sometime next year.

 

I just can't. There's always been something a little off pitching wise with him that I can't just completely buy in to him. Maybe it goes back to the Jeff Suppan comparison mlb.com made when he was drafted.

 

My problem is he masters Brevard County last year, moves up to Huntsville and proceeds to walk over 7 per 9 innings, granted it was only 46 innings. Then he comes back this year, masters Huntsville and moves to Nashville and so far in 32 innings he's walking nearly 6.5 per 9 innings.

 

How's he going to fare against much better and much more patient hitters? Unless we can clone a bunch of Betancourts. I think he'll probably struggle next year.

[brewmann04]

The Walks with the Prospects is Worrisome but hopefully that can be fixed before coming up to Milwaukee. I was curious how tight of a strike zone do they have in the Minors?

[Brewers1982]

Hard to even predict anything for next year right now. Way to many question marks. Will Braun be suspended into next year or possibly for life? Will any or all of Gallardo, Lohse, Weeks, Aioki, KRod, Axford, Gonzalez, Henderson be traded? Will Hart be back? Can ARam rebound? Can Gomez & Segura duplicate the seasons they are having?

 

The easy answer is IF all are back and healthy then they could possibly contend for a wildcard spot. But more than likely this team will have a very new look next year and will not contend.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The problem with saying "what are the chances of competing next year" is that much of that answer is wrapped into "how many of the current impact players get traded before the deadline.

 

If they truly think they can go for it (and by all accounts, Mark A and Doug are always in 'go for it' mode), they'd hang onto Ramirez, Gallardo, Henderson, Lohse, Aoki, and so on. They'd also be holding onto, then, a bunch of expensive, and in some cases, expiring contracts.

 

If you decide to get rid of a lot of that dead weight, you have to accept that much of the talent you get back won't be MLB ready, or if it is, it's not going to be positive WAR ready, to the point where we'll have enough to make a playoff run in 2014.

 

I just don't see it. Even if they all come back, even if Braun, AND Ramirez, AND Hart are healthy, even IF they all bounce backto pre 2012 form, even IF Braun isn't suspended, even IF Weeks doesn't suck the first half of the season, even IF Gallardo regains his form, even IF one or two of the young pitchers step up and are league average at the back end of the rotation..............

 

Even IF all those IF conditions are met, it's like an 85 to 87 win team. We need a LOT of IF's, and a bit of luck.

[reillymcshane]

Winning next season is all predicated on just about EVERYTHING going right.

 

1. Braun, Hart, A-Ram, Weeks, Gallardo rebound.

2. Lucroy, Segura, Gomez, Aoki, Lohse, bullpen repeat.

3. Peralta gets better.

4. One or two guys starting pitchers - such as Fiers, Nelson, Hellweg, Thornburg - emerge.

5. Perhaps a 1B emerges (Morris) if Hart isn't resigned.

6. Few (or no) major injuries.

7. Other teams (Cards, Reds, Pirates) have injuries/problems.

 

If all those things happen, sure we can compete. If you have Hart on the team, the payroll is over $90 million. We're not signing anyone major. The problem is that most of these things have to go right. That's unlikely. On average, for every good thing that happens, a bad thing happens.

 

Braun, Hart, A-Ram and Weeks will all be over 30. If anything, they'll probably have more injuries. It simply happens as a player gets older (as well as their production declining).

 

When the inevitable injuries/poor play occurs, we really lack depth to fill the holes (thus we have Yuni getting 200+ ABs this year).

 

I just don't think it will happen. It's not impossible - but I think unlikely.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Winning next season is all predicated on just about EVERYTHING going right.

 

1. Braun, Hart, A-Ram, Weeks, Gallardo rebound.

2. Lucroy, Segura, Gomez, Aoki, Lohse, bullpen repeat.

3. Peralta gets better.

4. One or two guys starting pitchers - such as Fiers, Nelson, Hellweg, Thornburg - emerge.

5. Perhaps a 1B emerges (Morris) if Hart isn't resigned.

6. Few (or no) major injuries.

7. Other teams (Cards, Reds, Pirates) have injuries/problems.

 

If all those things happen, sure we can compete. If you have Hart on the team, the payroll is over $90 million. We're not signing anyone major. The problem is that most of these things have to go right. That's unlikely. On average, for every good thing that happens, a bad thing happens.

 

Braun, Hart, A-Ram and Weeks will all be over 30. If anything, they'll probably have more injuries. It simply happens as a player gets older (as well as their production declining).

 

When the inevitable injuries/poor play occurs, we really lack depth to fill the holes (thus we have Yuni getting 200+ ABs this year).

 

I just don't think it will happen. It's not impossible - but I think unlikely.

 

I definitely agree with this. The fact that all of what you listed has to go right to compete is why the focus should be on a rebuild. I just don't see everything going right all at once. It makes a lot more sense to at least take a step back for a few years and then come back with an actual fighting chance. The main thing to look at for me is how good the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates are. I could see the Pirates falling back, but the Cardinals and Reds will be there. The Brewers just don't have a shot at the division. An outside shot at the 2nd WC spot is probably the best they can do, and that's not enough reason to hold off on trading away certain players and rebuilding.

[RobertR]

Here's where I disagree, if you can project the team to 85 to 87 wins, that's a contender. Period.

 

Now, I don't know that you can with this bunch given the uncertainty about ARam's health and the declining performance of Weeks and Gallardo, but I don't think the Brewers have ever had a team that projected to 95 wins before a season. There's nothing wrong with putting a team on a field that can compete if a few things go right, with maybe a deadline trade for an impact player to boost an 87 win team to 90+ wins, without sacrificing the future, rather than cashing in all your chips and creating a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

If Billy Beane listened to this sort of advice, he'd never have signed Bartolo Colon. Instead, he's looking at another playoff run.

 

I agree that the Brewers need to make some tough choices at the deadline this year. That said, they're going to have star level players on their team next year under any scenario. Several of them. That's an enormous advantage and an opportunity to compete in a very short amount of time. They'll also likely have the financial wherewithal to sign a free agent or two to shore up a weak position. This team is in a vastly better position to turn it around quickly when your best players are a whole lot better than Jeff Cirillo and the best free agent you could sign was named Jeff Hammonds.

 

It's just as easy to say, the Brewers are two starting pitchers and good health away from competing. And it's possible that one of those pitchers is in the upper levels of their system already.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

In 2011, the Brewers were probably a mid-high 80 win team that won 96 games. In 2013, they were probably a high 70-80ish win team that will probably wind up around 70 wins. Just regressing to their mean probably gets them close to .500. Is that competing? Kind of I guess...but they would need to improve their starting pitching to say they're a legit competitor. I'd rather see them make trades to set the team up for 2015 & beyond. They'll still have a number of solid players under control at productive contracts and can use some current chips to try and bolster the pitching. With all the injuries, the trades may be tough to accomplish but hopefully they can make strides. The worse case would be some type of perpetual purgatory where they don't lose enough to get decent picks or feel the need to trade enough to improve the farm system and yet aren't really competitive.

[Roderick]

The chances of competing are 29.4%.

 

First of all the division would seem to be getting tougher, so that is a negative.

 

I guess I consider the below items to be the variables that have the most chance at effecting the most wins/losses for the team.

 

The offense needs a full year of Braun, and one of Weeks/ARam to have a good year, and not too much of a dropoff for Gomez and Segura.

 

The pitching needs Gallardo to return to form, Lohse to retain his (assuming we have both of them still) and one of Estrada or Peralta to be a playoff-level #3 starter. There should hopefully be enough bodies to man the bullpen/#5 starter role at least close to average.

 

We will still be a team that needs to outscore more often than outpitch the other team.

[harrydalton]

It depends on your definition of "competing." I can't see them being better than the Cards, Reds, or Pirates in 2014. Yet they could have a competitive team. My thinking is that if Melvin is smart enough to see it that way, he'll still have to convince Attanasio. The first inkling we'll get is if they make a big deal or two before the trading deadline. My gut tells me they won't. Somebody has to really want the players you're looking to sell. What you would think their marketable players such as Ramirez, Gallardo or Lohse are clouded respectively with injury/age, performance and high salary issues. A variety of bullpen guys can be marketed, but won't get a top return to put their 2014 prospects above the top three in the division.

[RobertR]

Where I come down with the "we can't possibly compete with the Cards, Reds, or Pirates" is the assumption that none of those teams will ever have to deal with injuries or age related declines. Yeah, if they're all healthy and productive, they'll be tough to overtake, but history should tell us that most teams don't have smooth rides over multiple years without something popping up.

 

Take the Nationals who were odds on favorites before the year. Or the Giants, who were World Series champs. Or the Dodgers who spent an absurd sum over the winter.

 

Take the Cards for 2014.

 

Beltran is going to be 37 next year and Molina will be a catcher in his 30s. There's certainly a risk of a decline for both of them. Anybody really convinced that Matt Carpenter is playing at his true level rather than over his head? Toss in a random injury and suddenly they're a lot more vulnerable.

 

Remember how good Anaheim and Boston were supposed to be in 2012?

 

Which isn't to say that the Brewers need to do something silly for one last stab at glory, but I suspect that 90 wins will get you to the playoffs in 2013, 2014, 2015, etc. Injuries, age, "regression to the mean", etc. aren't things that happen only to the Brewers.

 

Which again isn't to say that the Brewers shouldn't be in sell mode, but, for the most part, the things that the Brewers really have to sell are veterans that are underperforming (Gallardo, Weeks) or injured (Hart, Ramirez). Honestly, it wouldn't be all that surprising at this point if Lohse and KRod have the most trade value at the deadline, which I suspect nobody would have predicted about the Brewers in July 2012. Which should be some statement about how fluid baseball can be.

[jerichoholicninja]

How about this question. Are the Brewers currently the least well run team in the division?

 

The Cubs have a plan and some pieces in place to contend in a few years especially after the trade of Garza. The Pirates are on the verge of being very good for a while. As much as we hate it, the Cardinals have always been run well. My concern with the Reds would be that Dusty Baker is still their manager but they have some good young players locked up for a while and a decent rotation. I think it's safe to say that, yes, the Brewers are the least well run team in the division and have the bleakest outlook over the next few seasons. Obviously things can change, prospects can emerge, veterans drop off, etc. but the Brewers can no longer depend on the ineptitude of the Cubs and Pirates to keep them out of the basement.