Post-Crescent and Baseball America's Jim Callis look at Brewers' system

[Mass Haas]

Brewers minor leagues: Top 20 prospects not on fast track to Milwaukee

by Mike Sherry, Post-Crescent Media

 

Yasiel Puig’s smashing debut in the major leagues has evoked comparisons to Joe DiMaggio and sparked a national debate about whether the Los Angeles Dodgers rookie should be an all-star despite barely a month in the majors.

 

Jarred Cosart made his major league debut for the Houston Astros on Friday, and the 23-year-old pitcher took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, cooling off the streaking Tampa Bay Rays and outdueling former Cy Young winner David Price.

 

The Milwaukee Brewers, meanwhile, have had eight players make their major league debuts this season, and none has come close to the impact of Puig, Cosart and others like them.

 

To be fair, Puig and Cosart are just two examples, and both have been highly acclaimed prospects, ranked higher than any of the minor leaguers who have debuted with the Brewers this season, with the possible exception of Wily Peralta.

 

But the terrific starts by Puig and Cosart illustrates the gap in talent between the Brewers’ farm system and the top organizations in baseball.

 

Before the season, Baseball America — the foremost authority on prospects and minor league baseball — ranked the Brewers’ minor league talent 23rd out of the 30 teams in baseball. Peralta was the only Brewers prospect to crack the magazine’s list of top 100 prospects, coming in at 69th.

 

“It’s not like anything stands out about the system,” Jim Callis, an Executive Editor at Baseball America, said about the Brewers during a recent phone interview. “They’ve had some extra picks but those haven’t paid off so far. There’s not a lot of top 100 type prospects, not a lot of depth. It’s kind of thin.

 

“I wouldn’t say it’s devoid of prospects, but it’s kind of below standard in however you want to look at it.”

 

Baseball America recently presented its Midseason Prospect Update, and the news wasn’t any better for the Brewers, who were shut out on that list, while their National League Central Division rivals claimed 12 of the top 50 prospects in baseball. The Cardinals led the way with four of the top 50, followed by the Cubs (three), Pirates (three) and Reds (two).

 

As Callis said, the Brewers aren’t without prospects, but the consensus is that there isn’t a Puig-type player waiting to blow the roof off Miller Park, and some of the best prospects are still several years away from reaching Milwaukee.

 

“I think even organizations that aren’t going well always feel like they have prospects in the pipeline at the lower levels,” Callis said. “A lot of time, prospects are like your kids — you’re going to love your own prospects more than anyone else does.”

 

A few things jump out about the Brewers: their lack of top infield prospects, and a dearth of left-handed pitching. And, given the organization’s conservative approach to promoting prospects, it could be three or four years before we see a lot of them in Milwaukee.

 

With all of that in mind, we’ve put together a list of the Brewers’ top 20 prospects with the help of Baseball America and others who rank minor league prospects. Callis offers his thoughts on some of the prospects, notably those who have passed through the Fox Valley and played for the Timber Rattlers.

 

Peralta, who began the season as the Brewers’ top prospect, and Logan Schafer, who started the year as the team’s 13th-best prospect, have graduated off the prospect list after spending the entire season with the Brewers.

 

1. Jimmy Nelson

 

The 6-foot-6, 245-pound, hard-throwing righty will represent the Brewers in the Sirius XM All-Star Futures Game today. Started the season at Double-A Huntsville, where he went 5-4 with a 2.74 ERA in 12 starts before getting promoted to Triple-A Nashville. Is 1-3 with a 3.62 ERA at Nashville, where walks have been a problem, but has made a steady climb since spending the 2011 season with the Timber Rattlers. Could be a September call-up by the Brewers, unless they opt to limit his innings this season. Miller Park ETA: 2014.

 

Callis says: “I think he is their top pitching prospect. He’s continually gotten better. Good life on his fastball. Slider has gotten better. His changeup is just OK.”

 

2. Johnny Hellweg

 

Didn’t set the world on fire in his brief stint with the Brewers (0-3, 10.97 ERA), but he earned the shot by going 7-4 with a 2.82 ERA at Nashville. Walks have been a problem at every level, and his strikeouts are down this year as he tries to pitch to contact more and harness his upper 90s fastball. Should be back with the Brewers when rosters expand in September, if not sooner. Miller Park ETA: 2013.

 

3. Tyrone Taylor

 

Prospects who can impress at a young age are the ones who make scouts stand up and notice, and that’s exactly what the 19-year-old Taylor has done this season at Class A Wisconsin. Is hitting .299 with 25 doubles, eight home runs and 44 RBI. More impressive, he has struck out only 38 times in 83 games. A college prospect as a running back in football, Baseball America ranked him as the Brewers’ best athlete in the minors. Miller Park ETA: 2017.

 

Callis says: “He’s having a nice year. He’s not as raw as a lot of 19-year-old guys who are multi-sport guys. To his credit, he’s more advanced than we thought he would be at this point. He’s probably been the highlight of that team so far.”

 

4. Taylor Jungmann

 

As an accomplished college pitcher, most expected a quicker rise to Milwaukee for Jungmann, who was drafted 12th overall in 2011 and received the second-largest signing bonus in club history ($2,525,000). Is 9-6 with a 3.56 ERA at Double-A Huntsville. His strikeouts and velocity are down from his college days as he tries to be more efficient, but his 67 hits allowed in 93 2⁄3 innings is impressive. A September call-up to get a sniff of the big leagues is possible. Miller Park ETA: 2014.

 

Callis says: “Absolute sensible picks for the Brewers when they took them (Jungmann and Jed Bradley). Some thought they’d be in the big leagues by now. With Jungmann, the thing that concerns me is he’s pitching OK but not missing any bats.”

 

5. Tyler Thornburg

 

Is 0-9 with a 5.79 ERA at Nashville this season, but 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA for the Brewers in limited duty. His strikeout totals have been impressive throughout the minors, but he has given up a lot of hits the higher he has progressed. The major question for Thornburg and the Brewers is if he’s a starter or a reliever in the majors. Miller Park ETA: 2013.

 

6. Orlando Arcia

 

Like Taylor, Arcia has impressed as a young player in the Midwest League, especially after missing the 2012 season with a broken ankle. Signed out of Venezuela in 2010, the Rattlers’ shortstop is hitting a respectable .243 and has struck out only 27 times in 276 at-bats. Defense will be his calling card until his bat develops more. He has made 16 errors this season. Miller Park ETA: 2016.

 

Callis says: “He’s a toolsy shortstop and a young kid, only 18, and playing every day. Hitting .240 in the Midwest League at 18 is a fairly impressive performance. Defense will be his meal ticket and he can develop into a solid hitter.”

 

7. Devin Williams

 

The Brewers’ top draft pick this season (54th overall) is being treated with kid gloves as he begins his career with the Arizona rookie team. Has an 0-2 record and 4.09 ERA but has thrown just 11 innings in four games. The 18-year-old Missouri prep standout can touch 93 mph with his fastball now and projects as a power pitcher as he bulks up his 6-3, 165-pound frame. Miller Park ETA: 2018.

 

Callis says: “I would think he’d make their top 10. He’s an athletic, projectable kid. They took him in the right spot. On his good days, he looked like a first-rounder.”

 

Timber Rattlers shortstop Orlando Arcia will make his name with defense until his hitting develops. / Photo by Ron Page, Post-Crescent Media

 

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8. Hunter Morris

 

The Brewers didn’t think Morris was ready for a call-up earlier this season despite their problems at first base. The Brewers’ minor league player of the year and Southern League MVP in 2012 at Huntsville has been solid but unspectacular at Nashville this year. Is hitting only .241, but has 38 extra-base hits (19 homers) and 50 RBI in 87 games. Should get a September call-up and then challenge for the starting job in 2014. Miller Park ETA: 2014.

 

9. Ariel Pena

 

The overlooked third piece of the Zack Greinke trade, along with Jean Segura and Hellweg. Has pitched better than Jungmann at Huntsville for most of the season and is 5-7 with a 3.47 ERA. Leads the Stars with 88 strikeouts, but also a team-high 51 walks. Has an upper 90s fastball and good sinker and just needs to harness his raw tools. Miller Park ETA: 2014.

 

10. Mitch Haniger

 

Started the year with the Timber Rattlers before moving up to high Class A Brevard County. Is hitting .248 with three homers and 17 RBI in 42 games with the Manatees. Has 14 doubles and is starting to show a little more power, which he will need as he projects as a corner outfielder. Miller Park ETA: 2016.

 

Callis says: “Fits better in right field. He’s a polished hitter. He knows what’s he’s doing at the plate. Has hit a little bit of a wall in the Florida State League, but is a solid bat.”

 

11. Victor Roache

 

A first-round pick by the Brewers in 2012, he sat out his first season with a broken wrist. Has spent this season with the Timber Rattlers, where he has flashed impressive power with eight homers and 39 RBI in 71 games, but has also struggled making contact (76 strikeouts, .224 avg.). His bat will be his ticket to the majors. Miller Park ETA: 2017.

 

Callis says: “When you have a wrist injury, it’s going to take a little while to bounce back. There always will be some swing and miss with Victor, but if he was healthy he wouldn’t have been there (when the Brewers drafted him). Might have been the best power hitter in that draft if he was healthy.”

 

12. Scooter Gennett

 

Had a brief stint with the Brewers but has spent most of the season at Nashville, where he is hitting .302. His lack of power — only 18 extra-base hits in 67 games at Triple-A — lowers his ceiling in some scouts’ eyes, along with his small stature and average glove. Opinions vary on Gennett perhaps more than any other Brewers prospect. Miller Park ETA: 2013.

 

13. Clint Coulter

 

The Brewers’ other first-round draft pick in 2012 with Roache. Drafted for his bat, the Brewers hope he can stick at catcher, but he likely ends up at third base, first base or a corner outfield spot. Started the season in Wisconsin, was sent back to rookie league Helena as part of a planned move and is hitting .281 in nine games there. Hasn’t played since July 2 as he nurses an injury. Miller Park ETA: 2018.

 

Callis says: “I think his bat stands out more than his defense, but I think they are committed to making catching work. Got off to a rough start in the Midwest League, but high school catchers usually take a while to develop. I don’t look at it as a huge setback.”

 

14. Jorge Lopez

 

A raw, but talented prospect who is 4-6 with a 5.88 ERA for the Timber Rattlers this season. Taken in the second round of the 2011 draft out of Puerto Rico, there’s no doubting Lopez’s natural talent. How long it takes him to harness his skills and grow into his 6-4 frame will determine his fate. Miller Park ETA: 2017.

 

Callis says: “You have to like the arm. I don’t think he’s developed as quickly as the Brewers would hope, but you can’t ignore the arm strength. Has velocity and a good curveball. The stuff is there.”

 

15. Michael Reed

 

The Brewers are obviously high on Reed after giving him a reported bonus of $500,000, more than three times his slot value, to give up a scholarship to Mississippi after he was drafted in the fifth round in 2011. Strong and athletic, he has hit .293 with nine triples for the Timber Rattlers this season. Needs to cut down on strikeouts, with 80 in 79 games. Miller Park ETA: 2017.

 

Callis says: “He’s a toolsy guy. They brought him along slowly. He needs time to develop. He’s an athlete and has right-field tools. At 20, he’s not old for the league. I think the key for him will be developing power, but he’s made some nice progress.”

 

16. Jed Bradley

 

Taken three picks after Jungmann in the 2011 draft. Big, strong and left-handed, the Brewers hoped for a faster rise from the Georgia Tech star. Is 4-3 with a 4.21 ERA at Brevard County. Hasn’t pitched since June 22 because of an undisclosed ailment, but was expected to return to the mound for the Manatees on Saturday night. Miller Park ETA: 2015.

 

Callis says: “Bradley is still struggling with command. Now they (Bradley and Jungmann) look like back-of-the-rotation guys. It’s just unfortunate for Milwaukee.”

 

17. Tucker Neuhaus

 

Drafted with the 72nd overall pick in this year’s draft, the Florida prep star has been playing shortstop with the Arizona Brewers but may eventually wind up at third base. Is off to a slow start in Arizona with a .184 average in 19 games, but the left-handed batter projects as an excellent hitter with the glove and arm to be a good fielder. Miller Park ETA: 2018.

 

Callis says: “He’s an interesting guy. I tend to think he’s more of a third baseman, but he moves well and has arm strength and has power. If they have to move him to third, you’re not worrying that the power won’t play there. You play him at short as long as you can.”

 

18. Drew Gagnon

 

Third-round pick of the Brewers in 2011. Advanced college pitcher who moved quickly through the system but has hit a wall with a 1-5 record and 6.82 ERA since being promoted to Huntsville earlier this season. Excellent control with a low to mid 90s fastball. Needs to develop his secondary pitches. Miller Park ETA: 2015.

 

19. Elvis Rubio

 

Not on a lot of scouts’ radars yet and may never pan out but, what the heck, in an organization lacking high-ceiling prospects, Rubio is worth keeping an eye on. Signed out of the Dominican for a reported $95,000 in 2011, the 6-3, 215-pound outfielder has finally landed stateside and, having just turned 19, is off to a strong start with the Arizona Brewers, batting .381 with four homers and 11 RBI in 14 games. Miller Park ETA: 2018.

 

20. Gian Rizzo

 

Like Rubio, is extremely raw but has exciting potential. Just 19, he is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA with the Arizona Brewers, his first season in the states after being a Dominican Summer League all-star the past two years. Was signed in Venezuela in 2011. Has walked just one batter in his first 20 innings in Arizona. Reportedly hits 91 mph with his fastball now, but that should increase as his 6-1, 160-pound frame fills out. Miller Park ETA: 2019.

[TooLiveBrew]

That is an excellent feature from Mr. Sherry. Great read.