2013-07-05 Mets (Wheeler) at Brewers (Hellweg), 7:05 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 12-5]

[brewcrewdue80]

Stache' the Brewers have gotten 2 outs from All Stars Kirk Neuwenhuis and Ike Davis.

 

In 12 PAs

[brewmann04]

guys need to focus on that top 5 pick in 2014,

[The stache]

Well, 'stache. Outside of the 10 runs, the Crew played great!

 

Sorry to hear you're in the hospital. You aren't missing much tonight.

 

Thank you, H4P. Been in here almost two weeks fighting an infection after I broke my leg in two places.

 

I guess I'm hoping to see a silver lining in tonight's game, something that wouldn't appear in the box score. Looks like the pitching and defense has been atrocious, but Carlos Gomez and Nori Aoki have had nice games.

 

I have to concentrate on the positive.

[The stache]

Stache' the Brewers have gotten 2 outs from All Stars Kirk Neuwenhuis and Ike Davis.

 

In 12 PAs

 

That's pretty awful. Wasn't Davis just called back up from AAA?

[TheCrew07]

I said on another board that ERA in Nashville was the worst thing to happen to Hellweg. Made them believe he was ready to contribute when he clearly wasn't. He needs to go back down to Nashville after the game. Bring up a reliever and let Thornburg start.

 

I've talked quite a bit about a pitcher's ability to miss bats on the minor league forum, I really don't get the ground ball obsession around baseball. Ground balls are just as varied as fly balls, it's not like every ground ball should be converted into an out or is "lucky" to get through the infield. The only real difference is that ground ball can never be a HR, which has some value, but I think ground balls are vastly overrated.

 

How about pitchers who can get themselves out of trouble on their own?

 

I think Hellweg can still be successful, but he's never had the command or missed enough bats. The first thing he needs is to command the zone better and then if he can sharpen his secondary stuff he could be a MLB starter. Until then I think he's a reliever.

 

Flyballs are worth almost 3x as much as groundballs.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/batted-ball/

 

A line drive produces 1.26 runs per out, while fly balls produce 0.13 runs per out and groundballs produce 0.05 runs per out. In other words, batters want to hit lots of line drives and fly balls, while pitchers generally want to cause batters to hit groundballs.

 

Thanks, I already knew that, but that's not my point. My point was supposed to be that fly balls are classified differently by type and ground balls are all thrown into one bucket. Sharp ground balls are nearly as effective as line drives, they can still get to the corners and the gaps.

 

Lumping ground balls into a single bucket is a disservice to the reality of the game, but of course classifying ground balls would be completely subjective and tedious.

 

Since most every pitcher is concerned with the "downhill plane" is getting ground balls really all that noteworthy? Shouldn't we be focused on and the pitcher's ability to create outs instead of the GB:FB ratio? I'd take infield pop-ups and broken bat liners for all 27 outs. The type of batted ball can represent the effectiveness of the pitch, but it can also be misleading.

 

This GB stuff is exactly like BABIP, it only tells us what we already know, it's treated as cause when it is actually an effect.

[TheCrew07]

One more thought... Hellweg's GO:FO ratio was 9:1... did he pitch well? Watching the game would you say he was "unlucky"?

 

GO:FO ratio is meaningless.

[Baldkin]

One more thought... Hellweg's GO:FO ratio was 9:1... did he pitch well? Watching the game would you say he was "unlucky"?

 

GO:FO ratio is meaningless.

 

I don't think his groundouts were the problem. His problem was walking 5 guys in 3 2/3 and the defense making 2 huge errors as well.

 

Of course you'd rather he strike out 27 guys every game, but all other things equal, you'd much rather have a ground ball pitcher than a fly ball pitcher.

 

I just can't stand to watch pitchers who cannot throw strikes (and yes, Yovani falls into that category this season).

[nate82]

I said on another board that ERA in Nashville was the worst thing to happen to Hellweg. Made them believe he was ready to contribute when he clearly wasn't. He needs to go back down to Nashville after the game. Bring up a reliever and let Thornburg start.

 

I've talked quite a bit about a pitcher's ability to miss bats on the minor league forum, I really don't get the ground ball obsession around baseball. Ground balls are just as varied as fly balls, it's not like every ground ball should be converted into an out or is "lucky" to get through the infield. The only real difference is that ground ball can never be a HR, which has some value, but I think ground balls are vastly overrated.

 

How about pitchers who can get themselves out of trouble on their own?

 

I think Hellweg can still be successful, but he's never had the command or missed enough bats. The first thing he needs is to command the zone better and then if he can sharpen his secondary stuff he could be a MLB starter. Until then I think he's a reliever.

 

You might want to read this article over at Baseball Prospectus.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20140

 

Not every ground ball is going to be the same. You really need to look at where in the count that ground ball came from. If the ground ball comes from a count that is in the batters favor you are probably looking at a ball that has been hit rather hard while if it comes during a pitchers count it is probably going to be a weak ground ball. This is the same for any type of a ball hit.

 

The problem with Hellweg is his walks and not really how many ground outs or fly outs he is getting. Walks = free runs for the most part. I put this in the Hellweg thread and I will repeat myself here the problem with Hellweg is his inconsistency in his mechanics. Once he starts to become more consistent with his mechanics he will start to get more strike outs and start walking hitters less.