2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[molitor fan]

I am familiar with Destino as we faced him in 2012 in NC state semifinals.....great makeup, and his stuff has really come a long way....has been well-coached and has pitched in cold-weather (an under-rated attribute to me) already as he is from Asheville area.

[colbyjack]

Thanks molitor fan, let us know if you see Destino again this season.

 

Clint Longenecker of Baseball America has a really fun piece up breaking down the stats of BA's top 100 college prospects, and it's free:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-top-100-draft-prospects-by-the-numbers/

 

Given the players I detailed just above, in addition to Kyle Schwarber's strength, the numbers really support future success for him. And Nola's control numbers are ridiculous.

[LouisEly]

Yes, I mentioned Newcomb, but I also mentioned Forbes as well.

 

Colby, what about the third guy I mentioned, Luke Weaver of Florida State. Kind of smaller (6'2", 170), but reports last summer had him touching 97 and can definitely add to that frame. In 98.1 innings struck out 119 and walked only 19. Second team pre-season All-American.

[colbyjack]

I like Weaver, very fast arm, produces low-90s heat that touches higher at times with promising secondary pitches. However, his stature (even though he looks closer to 190 than his listed 170) is smaller than what the Brewers ideally say they like, unlike Newcomb. That won't mean they won't stray from that expressed preference, as they obviously took Thornburg in the 3rd round a few years ago. Above I was simply profiling some players that I liked combined with what the Brewers have shown to be interested in recent years. Of course they haven't taken a prep arm in the first round.

 

Long story short, Weaver could very well be among those in consideration come June.

 

BTW, if you haven't seen this check out this great piece by Connor Glassey, formerly of BA:

 

http://conorglassey.com/big-leaguers-drafted-1996-2013/

 

He breaks down how many big-leaguers each organization has produced from 1996-2013. Here's the Brewers' writeup, check out the 'interesting tidbit':

 

20. MILWAUKEE BREWERS (67)

Scouting Directors: Ken Califano (1996-1999), Jack Zduriencik (2000-2008) & Bruce Seid (2009-2013)

Total AB: 33,633

Total IP: 5,839

Notable Players: Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Bill Hall, Michael Brantley, Jonathan Lucroy, Brett Lawrie, Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Tom Wilhelmsen, Jake Odorizzi & Jimmy Nelson

Interesting Tidbit: At 5,839, the Brewers have drafted and signed the fewest innings of any team since 1996. Nearly half (46 percent) of those innings come from Ben Sheets and Yovanni Gallardo, who are followed by Manny Parra, Craig Breslow, Dana Eveland and Tom Wilhelmsen.

[narwhalattack]

My wish list for the 12th pick:

Touki Toussaint

Grant Holmes

Michael Gettys

Alex Jackson

Luis Ortiz

 

Possible guys for later picks:

Monte Harrison

Justus Sheffield

[colbyjack]

Javier Baez walks twice a month and strikes out well more than once a game. Javier Baez's "pure hit tool" was always in question. His raw power was not.

 

I'm surprised I missed this before, but Baez was considered the most polished hitter available for the 2011 draft. He and Gatewood are not similar prospects.

[brewcrewdue80]

http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/mlb-mock-draft-central-2014/

 

Mock draft central see all the mocks.

 

I just want to say I'm looking at Bleacher Reports Jan 2nd mock which includes a lot of video. In it they mock Justus Sheffield as the Brewers pick. I don't know about picking Gary's Nephew considering the history but he did look solid to me in video.

 

I watched the players video down below him to #20. Touki Toussant was immediately after and I got a bad vibe off of it.

Wasn't impressed with the prep batters.

 

Who stood out to me though. Brady Aiken. The delivery he has looks settled and completely not forcing the issue from pitch to pitch. Thoroughly impressed by the motion. He's the guy barring some crazy fall down by the top 4-6 in projections to us. I see Aiken being a 200IP rotation guy this team so desperately needs to draft and bring up.

[brewcrewdue80]

And I decided to spend the time to watch the video of the Players ahead of the Sheffield in the mock:

11: Nick Gordon-Yes like what I see

10: Derek Fisher-No not thrilled

9: Luis Ortiz-Yes Looks like watching a RH version of Aiken 200IP guy

8: Tyler Beede- Not impressed and he's a college kid

7: Michael Gettys- No his swing is too upright

6: Jacob Gatewood-Yes quick looking swing/solid zone in it For a SS with Power potential as the article reads there's a lot that can go right with picking him

5: Trea Turner-No video

4: Tyler Kolek-Yes and Wow. 6'6" Sound motion and he really appeared to have no problem keeping the ball low in the zone. Please don't go to the Cubs!

3: Alex Jackson- Upper Body swing looks nice his lower body sway just seems a little off-balance. Fix some of that and yeah I like it. Don't need him and I won't cry if we don't get him

2: Jeff Hoffman- Looks good. Not as good as Kolek or Ortiz/Aiken. For whatever reason I see elbow/shoulder issues in his future in his motion and He's a college guy

1: Carlos Rodon- no video and obviously wont be there Milw so not really a need to put an opinion on him.

 

Cool stuff to see the videos and actually not just be going by what I read as I'm now down on Toussant. FWIW with the current mock suggestions and whom I liking hopefully means a good chance to see Gordon,Ortiz,Aiken as the pick at 12. And Gatewood but my guess is he's gone well before our pick.

[brewcrewdue80]

And hey may as well finish of the video with the mock

21:Alex Verdugo- Like his swing a ton problem is he looks good on the mound too. Could be Yovani Gallardo at the Plate when he makes the majors

22:Michael Cederoth-Motion looks good but his control seemed everywhere.

23: Cobi Johnson- Reads good. Looks okay his feet dance on the mound one pitch to the next side stepping then just a plain forward step so I wonder about control consistency.

24: Nick Burdi-no video

25: Derek Hill-I like his swing. Would be a great find in the 2nd pick if he fell.

26:Kyle Schwarber-No Video

27: Dylan Cease- Ok not enamored not at 12 ever.

28: Ti'Quan Forbes- No Don't see it. Pull hitter swing, probably would be good against FBs but breaking pitches? I see a long time in minors

29: Luke Weaver- no Video

30: Sean Reid-Foley- Not at 12 but great if with 2nd pick like Hill. I like what I see with some work to do but I see some serious action with the ball out of his hands. With some refinement he looks like a winning pick

31: Aaron Nola-No Video

32: Bradley Zimmer- Ugh, There are some good looking swings upper body. Lower body though needs a lot of work imo. Also has a pound it in to the ground looking swing vs. giving some lift/drive in the ball. Project for sure but could pay off big time. Wouldn't pick him 12th or 2nd pick

33:Brandon Finnegan-No Video

 

That's it my amatuer Fan Assessment. Man personal picks go: Gatewood,Ortiz, Gordon, Aiken, Verdugo(Reach) at this point. With Hill and Foley as pray they fall to 2nd pick. Verdugo would be awesome as a 2nd pick by Milwaukee because of the two ways he could play and my Gallardo comparison

[sheetskout]

Javier Baez walks twice a month and strikes out well more than once a game. Javier Baez's "pure hit tool" was always in question. His raw power was not.

 

I'm surprised I missed this before, but Baez was considered the most polished hitter available for the 2011 draft. He and Gatewood are not similar prospects.

 

 

Eh? More polished than Anthony Rendon, Kolten Wong? I'm not even sure Baez could be considered polished at this point. He wasn't even as polished as Lindor and still isn't. I'm not sure where you're getting that Baez was ever considered "polished". His knock is that he isn't refined, but has tremendous power.

[colbyjack]

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5763

[brewcrewdue80]

Thanks Colby, very informative.

And just from reading that you still have to wonder why, why they didn't take Fernandez or at least Guerrieri?

 

You also wonder where Jungmann's Command went last year if he was in one of the best command candidates?

 

Colby any kind of new names popping up in to 1st rd mention?

[TheCrew07]

I never thought Jungmann's command was all that great for a pro, if you look back pre-draft I was and have remained very consistent in my take that he was solid but unspectacular.

 

He threw strikes, but not necessarily "good" strikes, just because a pitch was strike doesn't necessarily mean it was in a good location. He also featured a so-so curve as his primary secondary offering that college hitters had a problem hitting fair, but not a problem getting a piece of, so Taylor had a nice strike percentage which basically unnecessarily inflated his pitch count. I would have much rather those hitters swung through the pitch and sat back down.

 

I'm a big out pitch guy, and if I don't see an out pitch with good professional command, I have a hard time getting excited just because a guy might throw hard, like Magnifico for example (who tired really fast when I saw him start BTW). I tend to be much more excited about a guy like Viramontes who is just filthy, but lacks consistent command as a bullpen option, rather than a guy who's currently starting but doesn't have any "wow" factor to him. He's either a back end starter (which we have plenty of), or a middle relief candidate (which we also have plenty of). I tend to only care about of top of the rotation and backend bullpen types, the pitchers that can save the Brewers incredible amounts of coin if they can be developed in house, those are the kind of guys who get me excited.

 

Jungmann was around the plate, had a track record of success, and he got some fairly generous corners by the time he was a senior, but again he was just solid, not spectacular in any particular way. I would roughly compare the strike zone in rookie ball to the college zone, and the zone basically continues to tighten up a little bit at each level. AA umpires, just like players, are already the best of the best, of the best.... these are guys with major league aspirations, if you watch a AA game and then a T-Rats game for example you are going to see a different strike zone. Every umpire obviously has his own quirks, but the AA strike zone roughly approximates the MLB strike zone, while there just isn't that same level of consistency in A ball for example.

 

Most pitchers are going to have to adjust somewhat with each level, at AA a guy is going to need to throw quality strikes or he's going to get hammered, and hitters don't swing at anywhere near as much garbage out of the zone. In AA quality of stuff quickly becomes as important as location. It shouldn't be a surprise if our guys struggle a bit at first, we should just be looking for quick improvements/adjustments being made. Which is why I'm not big on pushing pitchers all that fast... let them get to the point where they will be successful at the next level before bumping them. It's not so much about dominating the current level of play as it is progressing/growing as a pitcher. Some guys will be *that* good, they would move incredibly fast regardless of the organization, but we really haven't had one of those guys from HS, Gallardo was as close as we got.

[Eye Black]

Baseball America released a similar Early Draft Preview: College Best Tools.

 

After seeing Taylor Jungmann listed as best command in the 2011 article colbyjack posted, this caught my attention from another college pitcher expected to go somewhere near the Brewers pick this year...

 

BEST COMMAND: Aaron Nola, rhp, Louisiana State. Nola hammers the strike zone with all three of his quality offerings.

[TheCrew07]

Jungmann was around the plate, had a track record of success, and he got some fairly generous corners by the time he was a senior, but again he was just solid, not spectacular in any particular way.

 

I just reread that post and saw that I made a glaring mistake, Jungmann never pitched as a senior, he was drafted as a junior. Spending so much time around HS athletics over the years I've just gotten used to referring to a player's last year as his senior season, my bad. I knew better, it's not the first time that's burned me, and most likely won't be the last.

[TheCrew07]

Baseball America released a similar Early Draft Preview: College Best Tools.

 

After seeing Taylor Jungmann listed as best command in the 2011 article colbyjack posted, this caught my attention from another college pitcher expected to go somewhere near the Brewers pick this year...

 

BEST COMMAND: Aaron Nola, rhp, Louisiana State. Nola hammers the strike zone with all three of his quality offerings.

 

Same day subscriber piece: Early Draft Preview: Improved Pitching Boosts 2014 Class

 

I would love it if Brady Aiken was on the board for the Brewers pick. He fits the Brewers big bodied mold and is mostly filled out so there's not much projection left, but if he could add 2-3 MPH to his low 90s FB as he matures I'd be pretty excited. He looks to be a solid #2 candidate at this point and he's a LHP, though I guess we'll know more as the season progresses.

 

If I get some time tomorrow I'll break out the 2014 draft stuff by the 2 primary sources I use for that like I did last year, I'll make a thread each for BA and PG. I'll plug Perfect Game right now though, as if you are looking for scouting reports those are already available for any player in their database (very basic ones for free), BA won't get scouting reports up until much closer to the draft.

 

Looking at the draft I want a pitcher in the first round. Usually I'm a BPA guy but most of the best bats who will be available in these early projections are OFs, and I certainly wouldn't want to pass on Mike Trout to draft Jed Bradley, but I'd have a hard time spending another high draft pick on the OF at this point. My opinion could certainly change as the draft approaches and more information becomes available on each guy, but on the surface I'm leaning pitcher.

 

Of the college hitters that would possibly be the board C/1B Kyle Schwarber is a guy that intrigues me and if he didn't play at Indiana (yes Arnett fallout) I'd probably be firmly on his bandwagon. Max Pentecost is also an interesting C, though I'm always wary of "breakout" type players.

 

On the HS hitting front there isn't a guy who I'd be comfortable with today from scouting reports, once the HS season is mostly complete I'll have a better grasp of that group.

[colbyjack]

TheCrew07, nice assessment on Jungmann, and I know you've held that stance since the Brewers drafted him. I still was hopeful (and remain hopeful) that he could still evolve into an innings eater type of starter. He's never going to miss a ton of bats for the reasons you stated, but I do know that he has been working hard on developing his changeup, and with three at least average pitches he could be effective.

 

Eye Black At Night, I really like Aaron Nola. The kid just knows how to pitch, and his changeup could be one of the best in the game. I'm not sure if a changeup is a true out-pitch, but I like his chances to succeed even if his ceiling isn't the greatest.

 

Same goes for Schwarber. The kid's a beast and he has shown time and time again that he can not only hit, but hit for power with a very disciplined approach. He could be a fast-track candidate especially if you're looking at the black hole at first base.

 

brewcrewdue80, it's still a little early for any popup players, at least any that has drastically changed their draft projections since the college season just started and the high school season has only started in a few places around the country. While he's not going to be around when the Brewers pick, I have heard that Tyler Kolek has looked absolutely filthy so far this spring in preseason action. His fastball has been 93-99 and he's tightened up his slider. He also throws a changeup, and throws strikes, and could be a realistic candidate for the Astros to consider with the first overall pick, even though Rodon is still considered the favorite.

[narwhalattack]

Right now I'm intrigued by Dylan Cease. He already has shown the ability to touch the upper-90s and he seems to have some room left to grow into. He also seems to have potential for a good curveball.

[paul253]

I've seen some recent mock drafts that have us taking Touissant at 12. I'm not a fan of the hard throwing no control type pitchers and really don't want to take a chance on someone who can't throw strikes.

[brewmann04]

I would worry about that also about non control pitchers.

[narwhalattack]

I've seen some recent mock drafts that have us taking Touissant at 12. I'm not a fan of the hard throwing no control type pitchers and really don't want to take a chance on someone who can't throw strikes.

 

Guys who can throw hard AND throw strikes aren't gonna be available at 12. At 12 generally there are gonna be guys who can throw hard but will have to work on control/command.

 

And guys who don't throw hard but throw strikes don't have much of an upside, and the Brewers already have plenty of guys who can fit in the back of the rotation.

[brewcrewdue80]

I've seen some recent mock drafts that have us taking Touissant at 12. I'm not a fan of the hard throwing no control type pitchers and really don't want to take a chance on someone who can't throw strikes.

 

I doubt he'll hold up to being picked in the top 15. From the video I seen, I'm just in belief he will drop down draft boards as time goes by.

 

Here's one for the scouts in here. Nick Gordon. Do you see him as a hitter/ infielder? Or do you think you draft him and focus on pitching?

 

Aiken or Ortiz? That's pretty much the two I see it coming down to. Those two and Gordon. But I'm thinking the Blue Jays grab him ahead of Milw's pick since they have 2 1st rd selections.

[narwhalattack]

According to Kiley McDaniel on Twitter:

 

"Brady Aiken-Alex Jackson matchup note: Aiken was sitting 93-96 mph, went 94 & 95 on 2nd hitter Jackson, then backwards K on 80 mph hammer."

 

*drools*

 

A lefty who can throw in the mid-90s with a hammer curve? Yes please!

 

*drools some more*

[colbyjack]

The number of premium pitchers stepping up this spring and dealing is ridiculous. I just heard about the note on Aiken just prior to McDaniel's tweet, as the report is legit. Aiken was more well known as a command guy leading into the spring with good, not great stuff, but as you noted narwal, mid-90s with an already great curveball is starting to pile on to an embarrassment of riches for this year's pitching class.

 

And someone asked earlier if any players were starting to push their names up draft boards. Another prep LHP, Foster Griffin, also has been very impressive so far this year with an overall profile not so different than Aiken. Griffin has been steadily in the 90-94 range, peaking a tick or two higher, with a much improved breaking ball (slider) and changeup.

 

Sean Newcomb, who has been discussed before, has also looked good. A college LHP, the report on him had him 89-92 in the early innings and actually gaining velo in the middle frames, pitching at 93-94 and touching 95 a handful of times in the 3rd-5th innings in his last outing.

 

The 2014 draft class looks more and more loaded every time one of the top arms takes the mound. From what I've heard, the top 2 arms entering the spring, Carlos Rodon and Jeff Hoffman, may have been the least impressive so far. Not that they've been bad, but expectations are already so high for both.

[narwhalattack]

The number of premium pitchers stepping up this spring and dealing is ridiculous. I just heard about the note on Aiken just prior to McDaniel's tweet, as the report is legit. Aiken was more well known as a command guy leading into the spring with good, not great stuff, but as you noted narwal, mid-90s with an already great curveball is starting to pile on to an embarrassment of riches for this year's pitching class.

 

And someone asked earlier if any players were starting to push their names up draft boards. Another prep LHP, Foster Griffin, also has been very impressive so far this year with an overall profile not so different than Aiken. Griffin has been steadily in the 90-94 range, peaking a tick or two higher, with a much improved breaking ball (slider) and changeup.

 

Sean Newcomb, who has been discussed before, has also looked good. A college LHP, the report on him had him 89-92 in the early innings and actually gaining velo in the middle frames, pitching at 93-94 and touching 95 a handful of times in the 3rd-5th innings in his last outing.

 

The 2014 draft class looks more and more loaded every time one of the top arms takes the mound. From what I've heard, the top 2 arms entering the spring, Carlos Rodon and Jeff Hoffman, may have been the least impressive so far. Not that they've been bad, but expectations are already so high for both.

 

Lots and lots of impressive pitchers for this year's draft class. And I'm guessing that the hitters are no slouch either. The Brewers have their work cut out for them now, having to pick between many impressive players. I'm personally hoping for either Aiken or Holmes, although Ortiz would be a pretty good pick too.