2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[sheetskout]

The bottom line is that no draft strategy is some sort of universal rule. There is no real criteria defining BPA; it's subjective.

 

For what it's worth, BA released it's draft top-50 today and number 12 is Bradley Zimmer, OF, San Francisco

"The rare college bat with projection as well as strong present tools; scouts are divided on his power potential."

[brewmann04]

Ijust hope the Brewers Scouts get us some HR in this draft.

[paul253]

I see us walking away with a LHP. Aiken or Newcomb maybe.

 

Any chance Gatewood falls to #12? I'd love to have a power hitting third basemen in the system.

[sheetskout]

I see us walking away with a LHP. Aiken or Newcomb maybe.

 

Any chance Gatewood falls to #12? I'd love to have a power hitting third basemen in the system.

 

 

If Jacob Gatewood fell to #12 I would do cartwheels. This guy, to me, is this years Javier Baez. Should have the best bat-speed in the draft.

[paul253]

If Jacob Gatewood fell to #12 I would do cartwheels. This guy, to me, is this years Javier Baez. Should have the best bat-speed in the draft.

For the record this is why people like me were suggesting it was better to just play guys like Gindl, Maldonado, and Schafer over Aoki, Lucroy and Gomez and finish with a better pick. I still remember the 2011 draft and badly wanting Lindor or Baez. Jungmann is doing alright but we had a huge hole at SS then. Yeah we got Segura but the presence of Lindor or Baez would have allowed us to move Greinke for pitching.

[colbyjack]

I agree that being at #12 as opposed to where we thought the Brewers would be picking 2 months ago really opens up their options. BPA, as sheetskout pointed out, really is a loose term that is different for each and every organization. The Brewers have already shown in past years, both good and bad, to go against the grain with some of their picks. No one would have taken Prince Fielder as high as they did (good), and the same is true for Mark Rogers and Matt LaPorta (bad).

 

If Bradley Zimmer is the #12 prospect this year it's a bad draft year. He's intriguing, but will need a lot for him to come together to go that high.

 

Jacob Gatewood could fall, well past #12 in fact. He really had a disappointing summer and needs to end on a high note next week in Jupiter. The pure hit tool is really in question, which is the opposite as Javier Baez. That said, his upside still is impressive though, which would make it hard not to be excited if he were there if the draft were held today.

 

Aiken's probably not a candidate for #12 unless the velocity takes a nice spike upward next year. He's a 88-91 velo guy peaking at 92/93 type of guy with a big, slow bender, and his arm speed doesn't suggest that he's going to be that much higher. I love the way he pitches though.

[LouisEly]

Remember, Matt LaPorta failed with the Indians, not the Brewers. When the Brewers traded him he had a .978 OPS in Huntsville in his first full season in pro ball and was the #23-ranked prospect in baseball. Who's to say that Cleveland's coaching failed him, and he didn't fail? Up until they traded LaPorta it looked like a good pick.

 

If you're saying the Brewers failed by not selecting Madison Bumgarner or Jarrod Parker instead, that's a different story. It would have hurt a lot more to have given up one of those guys for Sabathia though.

[miggs721]

I remember a couple years ago, I and many others wanted Sonny Gray, and we went with Bradley instead, was that due our scouting team solely looking at bigger type pitchers???

[brewmann04]

I am concerned about our Scouts having the ability to get us the right guys.

[narwhalattack]

Hey Colby, what are your thoughts on Dylan Cease? He seems to be an intriguing high school power arm.

[sheetskout]

Jacob Gatewood could fall, well past #12 in fact. He really had a disappointing summer and needs to end on a high note next week in Jupiter. The pure hit tool is really in question, which is the opposite as Javier Baez.

 

Javier Baez walks twice a month and strikes out well more than once a game. Javier Baez's "pure hit tool" was always in question. His raw power was not.

[nate82]

I think the Brewers take a bat again this year and I think Jack Flaherty is the pick here. I don't believe he has the arm to play 3B and may have to move to the OF or 1B it is a risk I would be willing to take. I believe he will be the BPA by the time the Brewers are picking unless someone like Michael Cederoth is available. I believe Flaherty could be a better version of Weeks more power with just as quick of bat speed before the wrist injuries to Rickie. I believe where the Brewers will make a pick for a pitcher is during the competitive balance pick and I believe they will take Justus Sheffield. I don't believe Sheffield is a 1st round pick but he is close to being one and I hope he is available around the 39th pick. He isn't an overpowering lefty but he does have the potential to have 3 plus pitches. Sheffield may very well be a 2nd round pick also as there is not much upside left for him.

 

Another player I like in the competitive balance pick is Kel Johnson OF/1B who has a lot of power. If the Brewers go pitcher with the 1st pick I hope they take him as he would add power to the Brewers farm system which they are lacking a lot of.

[reillymcshane]

I remember a couple years ago, I and many others wanted Sonny Gray, and we went with Bradley instead, was that due our scouting team solely looking at bigger type pitchers???

I think you are correct about this. Gray is only 5'11" - and some scouts just weren't enamored with him because of his size. And I think he only was a two-pitch guy at the time, so I believe a lot people thought he'd end up in the bullpen. People loved his make up and competitiveness.

 

Was this an organizational bias? Don't know.

 

I remember there was a this big batch of college arms available to the Crew - Bradley, Jungmann, Gray, Chris Reed, Matt Barnes, Alex Meyer - I might have missed a couple as well. Rather sad to think our guys are turning out to be the worst of the bunch.

[brewcrewdue80]

I remember there was a this big batch of college arms available to the Crew - Bradley, Jungmann, Gray, Chris Reed, Matt Barnes, Alex Meyer - I might have missed a couple as well. Rather sad to think our guys are turning out to be the worst of the bunch.

 

So far only Gray has made it up to the Bigs of that group. And by looking at the numbers no one else is a lock to have any kind of impactful ML career after Gray. Which worse doesn't matter if none of them even make it to the Big League Roster they all are equal busts.

 

Of course clearly Bradley is the worst of the bunch but of the rest, Jungmann to me has every bit of chance to have a small impact on a ML Roster as the others listed, just like he has every bit of chance to not even make the team for what he was drafted for..SP

[brewmann04]

Still think the Crew needs to draft pitching and More Pitching .

[colbyjack]

Since his name was brought up in this thread, I'd thought I'd let you know that my PG cohort Frankie Piliere saw Michael Cederoth's spring appearance last Friday and reported on it, with video, here:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9172

 

In a nutshell, it sounds as though he's working on his secondary stuff, and command, even at the expense of his usual fastball velo readings.

[paul253]

Didnt want to start a new thread on this but I noticed that of the 13 players who turned down QO's three each play for the Yankees and Red Sox, meaning that they will each get three additional draft picks after the first round if those players sign elsewhere. The rich continue to get richer. I'm sorry but the MLB draft is an absolute joke.

[brewcrewdue80]

Didnt want to start a new thread on this but I noticed that of the 13 players who turned down QO's three each play for the Yankees and Red Sox, meaning that they will each get three additional draft picks after the first round if those players sign elsewhere. The rich continue to get richer. I'm sorry but the MLB draft is an absolute joke.

 

I just posted a topic in Major Leagues expressing what you are saying but you really simplified it. Rich give QOs, small markets Pitts on AJ Burnett cannot.

Really need to see all the small market teams never sign a QO player to even the field so the rich are taking away from the rich. But no, Milwaukee signed Lohse, Cleveland signed Bourn/Swisher. Those signings providing the Rich those added draft picks to your loss of picks is going to lead to the rich getting richer.

 

Personally, the true way I feel this should work out is having a 4th year(not Super 2) Arb process. If that player's command exceeds the amount of money based on what a QO is then he returns compensated pick if the team doesn't agree to a 1 year deal.

 

How does that work on players with 6+ years of experience though? I don't know. Maybe an age 32 cutoff for receiving compensation in picks. Let the Rich sign Aging old and likely declining players.

[colbyjack]

Similar to past years, I'm keeping a running tab of all of the free agent signings as they pertain to next year's draft order (free story):

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9039

 

Every player that is signed by a team that holds a compensatory pick for lost free agents, or a free agent that is re-signed by their 2013 club, is good for the Brewers. For instance, because the Yankees signed Beltran, Ellsbury and McCann, in addition to re-signing Kuroda, they forfeit their first-round pick and their two compensatory selections for losing Cano and Granderson.

 

The Brewers currently have the 12th, 44th and 56th overall selections.

[brewcrewdue80]

Similar to past years, I'm keeping a running tab of all of the free agent signings as they pertain to next year's draft order (free story):

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9039

 

Every player that is signed by a team that holds a compensatory pick for lost free agents, or a free agent that is re-signed by their 2013 club, is good for the Brewers. For instance, because the Yankees signed Beltran, Ellsbury and McCann, in addition to re-signing Kuroda, they forfeit their first-round pick and their two compensatory selections for losing Cano and Granderson.

 

The Brewers currently have the 12th, 44th and 56th overall selections.

 

As far as I know the Brewers get zero aid in any signings unless a team with a protected top 10 pick signs 2 QO offered players.

 

Yeah the Yankees signed Ellsbury lost their 1st rd selection. But Boston gained the end of first round (pre Brewers 2nd selection) in it's place. What the Yankees lost for draft picks, the Cardinals,Red Sox, and Braves gained in end of 1st round draft pick no? So it stays the same either way for Milwaukee. I'm not going to complain with how they reward/penalize as it seems fair. Lose a QO player gain a late 20s selection

 

But again this doesn't hurt the rich teams whatsoever! Yankees sign 3QO players lose two all they did was lost their 1st rd selection that was in the 20th range so not a great player coming their way most likely. They really aren't affected by this QO deal so far. It actually gained them picks last year now they lose 1.

 

Colby what I wanna know is who's your eyes on today at the 12th selection? Has it changed from your previous posts?

[colbyjack]

Sorry, I should have explained that when I do the annual draft order feature I start with a "worst-case" scenario, accounting for all of the free agents that could effect draft pick compensation. I understand your point about these picks being awarded as the players are signed, but when you start with all of the picks that could change the order, and start crossing them off based on where they sign and with what teams (or re-sign with their 2013 clubs), the Brewers projected picks did rise after last week's flurry of activity.

 

As for the #12 overall pick, not too much has changed, although Alex Jackson and Jacob Gatewood didn't show as well as hoped at the plate at our tournament in late October in Jupiter. That said, if either is available when the Brewers pick, it would be hard to pass on them.

 

Prep RHP Grant Holmes, who did show well in Jupiter (although not as dominant as we was earlier in the summer), is a player I think we'll hear more and more about between now and next June.

[heresrobin]

http://ht.ly/rrSbf

 

I noticed that Jim Callis had a Wisconsin High School kid at #49 overall in his most recent top 50. Jeren Kendall, a 5'10" CF prospect who hits from the left side, from Holmen High School a little north of the La Crosse/Onalaska area.

[narwhalattack]

Hey Colby what are the odds that Michael Gettys is available for the 12th pick?

[colbyjack]

heresrobin, and others that are interested, here is a piece I wrote on Kendall a few months ago:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9052

 

narwhal, I do think Gettys could be available. We at PG currently have him atop our current 2014 prep player rankings, but realize he needs to continue to make adjustments at the plate to hold onto that lofty placement. All of the other tools are there, that's for sure, and he's a very intense athlete and overall competitor.

 

There are only a handful of players who I'm 99.9% sure won't be at No. 12, Carlos Rodon being the most obvious followed by Jeff Hoffman and Tyler Kolek.

[colbyjack]

I meant to share this earlier in the week as a top 10 for 2014, but here are 10 players I really like for the Brewers pick at No. 12. I'm ruling out the following players who I'm pretty sure, as long as they're healthy, will be picked before the Brewers have a chance to take them: Carlos Rodon, Jeff Hoffman, Trea Turner, Tyler Beede and Tyler Kolek. This is an undefined combination of players I like with profiles that match up well based on organizational need and recent drafting preferences.

 

1. Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU - Not overly physical or dominating with his stuff, but he had the best changeup in his class coming out of HS, he competes, commands and still throws in the low-90s. He should fly through the minor leagues.

2. Kyle Schwarber, 1B, Indiana - Catches at Indiana, should be moved immediately to 1B as a pro to let his bat fast track him. Incredibly strong player with big-time power potential.

3. Alex Jackson, C/RF/3B, CA prep - Tremendous raw talent with unfair Bryce Harper comparisons. Not nearly as sure of a thing as Harper, but too good to pass up if he's available.

4. Kodi Medeiros, LHP, HI prep - Absolutely ridiculous stuff, smaller frame and delivery causes some concern about long-term health, role.

5. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford - LouisEly mentioned him before, and he definitely fits the profile of the type of big-bodied (6-5, 235) pitcher the Brewers have shown interest in recent years. Mostly 90-94 with good, not great secondaries.

6. Luis Ortiz, RHP, CA prep - Very similar overall profile to Yovani Gallardo, except slider, not curve, is his out-pitch. Sits low-90s, reaches higher.

7. Ti'Quan Forbes, SS, MS prep - Love his feel for game, tall, angular & athletic, more strength in frame should lead to more power.

8. Chris Ellis, RHP, Ole Miss - Not currently ranked on most draft lists to be an option at No. 12, but most that saw him pitch late last spring and summer think he will be come June, if not higher.

9. Grant Holmes, RHP, SC prep - Polished and competitive, up to 97, more of a finished product that knows how to pitch.

10. Michael Chavis, 3B, GA prep - Has drawn a few Dan Uggla comparisons, but has improved a lot defensively over last year, can run, strong arm, consistently has big performances at big national events with a knack for the big hit.

 

Just missed:

 

11. Max Pentecost, C, Kennesaw State - mentioned him earlier in thread, really took off last summer after injuries riddled him first few years in college, should have huge spring. Similar overall profile to Lucroy. Not a superstar profile, but a good all-around catcher.

 

Three more to keep an eye on (all prep pitchers):

 

Scott Blewett - big-bodied RHP that really made big jump from June to October last year, could be in mix for No. 12 come June

Cobi Johnson - tall, projectable RHP with big-time hook, son of big-league pitching coach

Alex Destino - sturdy and athletic LHP that really knows how to pitch, change speeds, command, can also swing the bat

 

Sandwich/Second round targets:

 

Greg Decimann, prep 3B - big power from LH side

Taylor Sparks, UC Irvine 3B - has power, but future at 3B in question

Brian Anderson, Arkansas 3B - athletic, versatile player could fit in at 3B, OF

Mike Papi, Virginia 1B/OF - incredibly disciplined eye, sweet LH swing, power potential in question but he can rake

Alex Blandino, Stanford SS/3B - really smooth defensively, has shown power with wood bat in 2 summers on Cape

Jace Fry, Oregon State LHP - great feel for game, command, but has questions coming off TJ surgery

Justus Sheffield, prep LHP - also has very good feel for pitching, sits 90-93, touches higher

Zack Shannon, prep RHP/OF - big power bat, but power arm, hook could lead to him being drafted/developed as RHP

Kyle Freeland, Evansville LHP - another LHP with feel for game, secondaries, low-90s fastball