2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[LouisEly]

Remember, Toronto's carryover pick from last year isn't protected this year so they will have to be conservative with that pick and lean towards signability.

 

History isn't on our side with the #12 pick - Jungmann, Mike Jones, and can anyone name the other without looking? Who knows what could have been with Jones had the Brewers not jumped his innings from 33 as an 18-year-old in 2001 to 138 heavy innings (62 BB and 135 K) as a 19-year-old in 2002. Maybe a more gradual increase (90 innings target in 2002, 120 in 2003) and he doesn't get hurt.

 

My early favorites are Sean Newcomb (LHP, U of Hartford), Ti'quan Forbes (SS, HS), and Luke Weaver (RHP, FSU). Newcomb has low miles on his arm for a college pitcher but walks are kind of high (good IP/H/K ratios). Weaver has excellent IP/H/K/BB ratios playing against better competition, but HRs were a little high. Forbes has really high upside. I don't know that the talent that will be at #12 is that much different than that at #7.

[paul253]

Newcomb and Finnegan were guys I was looking at as they'd both fill a huge need as LHP's. Any chance Tyler Beede falls to #12? I assume if he corrects his control issues the answer would be no. Another name I've mentioned before was Kyle Schwarber. I watched him a bit in the CWS and he looks like a beast. Probably doesn't stick a catcher but he'd be a big time power guy who could probably move through the system fairly quickly.

[JackNicholson1974]

Remember, Toronto's carryover pick from last year isn't protected this year so they will have to be conservative with that pick and lean towards signability.

 

History isn't on our side with the #12 pick - Jungmann, Mike Jones, and can anyone name the other without looking? Who knows what could have been with Jones had the Brewers not jumped his innings from 33 as an 18-year-old in 2001 to 138 heavy innings (62 BB and 135 K) as a 19-year-old in 2002. Maybe a more gradual increase (90 innings target in 2002, 120 in 2003) and he doesn't get hurt.

 

My early favorites are Sean Newcomb (LHP, U of Hartford), Ti'quan Forbes (SS, HS), and Luke Weaver (RHP, FSU). Newcomb has low miles on his arm for a college pitcher but walks are kind of high (good IP/H/K ratios). Weaver has excellent IP/H/K/BB ratios playing against better competition, but HRs were a little high. Forbes has really high upside. I don't know that the talent that will be at #12 is that much different than that at #7.

 

Im not looking, but Im going to toss out JM Gold. Had a great baseball name, but couldnt stay healthy.

[brewcrewdue80]

74-88 2losses from picking 7th instead 12th. 15-11 for the month. Started the month with 5th worst record. Passed Minnesota(.5gb), Philly(2.5GB), NYMets (3.5GB) Colorado (5GB!), Toronto(2.5GB), and Seattle(3GB)

 

Seattle,Minnesota,Cubs,Colorado,Mets all tanked in Sept. Toronto shut down any and all who had any kind of minor injury.

 

The team went 7-8 vs. Playoff teams in the month. 8-3 vs Cubs/Mets. That Mets series Brewers jumped to 4-0,3-0 leads. Mets were punchless as those 2quick losses by them put them in control in the standings over Milwaukee.

 

Other teams got it, what moving up in the draft order meant in September. Brewers were essentially eliminated back in August the 3rd(Yes I know they were practically done after May). But finished the season 28-24 from there. Just had to find 4 more losses to pick 6th in the draft over those 52games. (3 if we lose one of those Seattle wins) Let's look at the picks in the 2000s of meaningful players at 12: Jay Bruce,Jered Weaver

at 11:Neil Walker,Andrew McCutchen,Max Scherzer

at10:Tim Lincecum,Madison Bumgarner

at 9:John Danks

at 8:Paul Maholm

at 7:Prince Fielder,Nick Markakis,Troy Tulowitzki,Clayton Kershaw,Mike Minor,Matt Harvey

at 6:Zach Grienke,Zach Wheeler

at 5:Mark Texiera,Ryan Braun,Matt Wieters,Buster Posey

at 4:Gavin Floyd,Ryan Zimmerman

 

You can just see the difference from 5,6,7 vs. 8-12

[splitterpfj]

BCD, I know a lot of people will see it the same way you do, and I understand why, but as I've already said in this thread, I disagree.

 

What I've learned from your data is, it's much better to pick 7th than 4th, and also better to pick 11th than 8th.

 

I still say it's much more about who's picking than when you pick...look at that, the Giants got Posey, Wheeler, Lincecum, and Bumgarner, one at 5, one at 6, and two at 10. That's excellent scouting right there...man am I jealous.

 

If there was a Ken Griffey Jr talent, and I was within reaching distance of the top pick, only then, might I play for the pick, but in any other case, I see no value in tanking games.

 

Somebody picking ahead of Milwaukee will wind up with a kid who flops...probably more than one somebody, and some player who is picked after round one will wind up in an All-Star game, probably more than one somebody. The team has a chance to draft a kid who walks into the system ranked as highly as number one among their prospects. That's both an opportunity, and a problem, I just hope they get it right in June.

[paul253]

I still say it's much more about who's picking than when you pick...look at that, the Giants got Posey, Wheeler, Lincecum, and Bumgarner, one at 5, one at 6, and two at 10. That's excellent scouting right there...man am I jealous.

 

It is about who you pick but you can't deny how beneficial it is now in the MLB to have a top ten pick. Had we had a top 10 pick last season we wouldn't have lost our first rounder when we signed Lohse. If we had a top ten pick this year we wouldn't lose it if we decide to sign a FA. Also, and I don't follow this much, but I understand you receive more money to sign international free agents AND you receive more money to sign your draft picks when your record isn't as good. It's not entirely about just getting to pick three or four spots earlier.

 

It is about who you pick. I know that. And maybe the Brewers will wind up with the guy they want anyway. But there is a reason certain guys get picked higher than others. Sometimes it's due to money but it's almost always due to their level or talent. While the Brewers may end up with a very good player at #12 the level of talent of the players available at that pick is probably going to be a notch lower than the players available at #5. The MLB draft is a crap shoot and truth be told I'd trade this #12 pick to St Louis for a few of their scouts. But since it is such a crap shoot I'd prefer to have as many options as possible. You can't say that there is no real difference when trying to decide who to draft when your options are either 1) Players A, B , C, D, E, F, G, H, I and J or 2) Players A, B, C, D, and E . Yeah maybe Player D is the guy you wanted but it doesn't hurt to have the opportunity to take Players F, G, H, I and J, especially when those players are generally viewed to be the better players or the payers with more potential. Look at the 2011 draft. At the time we all thought we got a couple of good players but truth be told there were 9 guys picked ahead of Jungmann that I'd prefer to have right now. And the Brewers didn't have a shot at any of them because they were gone by the time we picked. Not saying Jungmann was a bad pick or isn't going to be a solid major leaguer but the fact that we picked so low cost us a shot at a number of very good players. I'd be willing to guess that moving 5 spots back in the past two weeks is going to end up costing us at least 2 players that are going to be better than whomever we pick. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[nate82]

The players that will be available from 6-12 are going to be about equal talent wise in this draft. I would go even further and say the players from 6-20 will be about equal in talent which is not a bad thing. This draft is rather stacked in talent but not so much in college pitchers as I don't really see anyone who has ace potential mostly #1's and a few #2's with an assortment of #3's and #5's mixed in.

 

The high school bats and pitchers are going to be very intriguing this year. This is not the year to draft a college pitcher as there is a lot of question marks on the ones that will be available even if the Brewers were to pick in the top 5.

 

As for the money it really isn't a concern as the Brewers have never spent all that much on international talent so that pool isn't all that important as I don't see the Brewers changing their strategy with international free agents. In the draft there are ways to be creative in spending money wisely. You can do what the Royals did last year and take a guy who will sign at or below the recommended slot value. This would then give you more money to spend on players in the competitive balance round and the 2-10 rounds.

 

On the draft board for the Brewers: Michael Cederoth RHP San Diego State, Sean Reid-Foley RHP, Tyler Kolek RHP, Sean Newcomb LHP Hartford, Ti’Quan Forbes SS, and Kodi Medeiros LHP.

 

Cederoth and Newcomb are both big bodied players that the Brewers have targeted in the past. Depending on how both progress in terms of their accuracy they could both be available when the Brewers pick. I would watch for Ti’Quan Forbes as he rises up the ranks this summer. I don't see him as a top 5 talent right now but he sure does have a lot of potential and if he could stick at SS he reminds me of a more athletic Tulowitzki. He may not develop as much power as Tulowitzki has but he should be as good as Tulo is defensively at SS.

[colbyjack]

Without a doubt you have a greater chance to hit a home run with your first round pick the higher you select. That's how the Brewers were able to make the most of their early picks and basically turn that into a pair of playoff teams with the likes of Fielder and Braun batting in the middle of the lineup.

 

However, as splitter noted, it's all about who you take.

 

That's why I don't get too bent out of shape about the actual slot and the history at No. 12. Instead, I'd rather look at some of the players taken in the first round at 12 and below:

 

2012: Corey Seager, Michael Wacha

2011: Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Matt Barnes, Taylor Guerrieri, Robert Stephenson, Joe Ross

2010: Chris Sale, Christian Yelich

2009: Shelby Miller, Mike Trout

 

I intentionally went back to 2009 for obvious reasons. I don't think it's necessary to cram more names down people's throats. The Brewers system needs an injection of talent, and they need to hit on whoever they take, something they haven't had as good of fortune with in recent years (just look at the top prospect lists in the Pioneer and Midwest Leagues).

 

I really like that Ti'Quan Forbes was mentioned, because we at Perfect Game think he's a guy that could be flying way under the radar. However, he's nothing like Troy Tulowitzki. Also, if Tyler Kolek is available at No. 12 something is wrong with him and/or he signed with Boras (but then again, I suppose Jose Fernandez fell farther than 12).

 

Just for fun, who would you have taken at No. 12 in 2013?

 

The first players taken at and after the pick were: D.J. Peterson, Hunter Renfroe, Reese McGuire, Braden Shipley and JP Crawford. I personally would love to have any of those 5 players in our system right now, especially Shipley who reportedly is really making the D-Backs look like geniuses for being lucky enough to have him fall in their laps.

[splitterpfj]

Colby, you're making the pick for the Brewers, and you're on the clock...which one of these guys would you take?

 

Ti'quan Forbes

Jacob Gatewood

Sean Newcomb

Max Pentecost

[colbyjack]

That's a tough one, but a very good question since those are the names I would guess would be a factor at No. 12 as it stands right now.

 

Gatewood's upside is ridiculous, but I'm skeptical he can reach it, and he may have to move to the OF. Very Chad Hermansen-esque. I already shared my interest for Forbes, and Newcomb is a very good pitcher.

 

My pick would be Pentecost. A very good hitter and all-around athlete that exploded this summer on the Cape. If you're worried about the presence of Lucroy, move Pentecost to 3B where his athleticism and arm would work just fine, especially given the void at the position in the system. But that's a problem for 2-3 years from now.

[splitterpfj]

Patrick, I had seen Gatewood projected around #5 in this draft a few months back, but he's slipped a bit because there are those lingering doubts, I've never seen him, but what I've read makes it sound like his swing gets long, and he hasn't been able to adjust away from that.

 

For those who don't know, Max Pentecost is a catcher from Kennessaw State U, who really turned heads in the Cape Cod League this summer. I wouldn't hesitate to take him, based on Lucroy, because you're looking at the 2014 draft pick, who then gets to Milwaukee in about 2017.

 

In that case, the team gets 3 more years, minimum, out of Lucroy, and then they either have a trade chip, or as Colby said, perhaps a position change.

[James Zumstein]

I know he was briefly mentioned earlier in the thread, but I've seen Brady Aiken's name more and more lately. He dominated in his outing in the Area Code Games (for the Brewers team). Although he sits 88-92, he is listed at 6'3", 207, so I'm wondering how much more potential speed is there on his fastball. Could he be someone that we look at in the Supplemental Round, similar to how we took Tyrone Taylor from our Area Code Team in 2011?

[colbyjack]

splitter, that's exactly it with Gatewood. A world of talent and someone you can easily fall in love with if you catch him on the right day, but a player that also isn't as polished as some would prefer with such an early pick. Epitome of high risk, high reward, and he could easily be a top 3-5 pick next June if he puts things together between now and next June. Still very hard to pass on should he be available at No. 12.

 

I really like the way Brady Aiken pitch, but he's never going to be a flamethrower. He'll throw pretty much what he does now, maybe a tick or two higher, with his usual big-breaking curve and plus command. I think he's likely to go somewhere between the Brewers' first rounder and the supplemental pick.

 

It's interesting you bring up the team's Area Code teams. They've had that relationship for a long, long time now, and yet they've never drafted too many prep SoCal kids. The Brewers ACG teams are always loaded, without a doubt, going far past the likes of Aiken and Taylor -- Alex Jackson, Marcus Wilson and Jack Flaherty are 3 more players that could go in the first round next June.

[LouisEly]

I'm very skeptical of projecting based on a small sample of innings played in the Cape Cod league. I know it is a higher level of competition, but it still is a small sample. Jed Bradley looked great in the Cape, but hasn't done squat. A good friend of mine played in the Cape Cod league but didn't even get drafted.

[colbyjack]

I find it interesting that you're skeptical of players that had success on the Cape when you mentioned earlier you liked Sean Newcomb for the Brewers pick. Newcomb, like Pentecost, really made a name for himself for the 2014 draft for the success he enjoyed on the Cape. Sure, some players excel there and don't make it, and others do. There's a ready-made example for just about any related scenario.

 

As for a small sample, it's really not that small. Of Pentecost's college career, his time spent on the Cape is roughly 20% of that. The tools have always been there (he participated in the PG National Showcase in HS getting high marks across the board: http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=274732), so it's not as though he came out of nowhere, and the production has been solid (although not eye-popping prior to the summer, again, similar to Newcomb).

 

And the same can be said for every single draft-eligible player. That's where the scouts really come in to play.

 

I don't mean to go out of my way to defend Pentecost, but again, it's curious when you have two similar players and you choose to advocate one but not both of them.

[miggs721]

What about Michael Conforto, is 12 a reach for him, best polished college hitter in the draft

[LouisEly]

I don't mean to go out of my way to defend Pentecost, but again, it's curious when you have two similar players and you choose to advocate one but not both of them.

I wasn't specifically referring to Pentecost, I was referring to the Cape Cod league in general and using that performance solely as a reason for advocating that player. But looking at Pentecost's 2013 season at Kennesaw State over 212 AB's he only slugged .410 with an OPS of .785. Maybe if he was playing in a tougher conference such as the SEC and is a plus defensive C, but I'd expect a more dominating performance from someone in the Atlantic Sun conference to consider that person at #12 overall. I get what you are saying because his 130 ABs in the CCL account for 38% of his 2013 ABs. Point being, for #12 overall I want to see a dominating performance in both the Cape Cod league and in regular college season play.

 

My reason for advocating Newcomb has little to do with his Cape Cod performance and mostly to do with his 2013 college season performance (6.63 H/9, 11.50 K/9 in 73 IP) and being a LHP (which the Brewers need). Weaker conference, yes, but a more dominating performance. Not saying he's #1 on my list, but he's in the discussion.

[colbyjack]

Those are all fair points, but I guess I wouldn't consider Pentecost, or anyone for that matter, unless he replicates/build on that success this coming spring. Without a doubt if the draft were held today I would have a hard time taking him there based on his past history as you noted.

 

But then again, like I said before, that's what scouts are for, and the reports on someone like Pentecost in particular is that he made the necessary adjustments to be in the conversation for picks in the early teens. He's a potential top 10 guy if he continues to progress next spring, especially considering he plays a premium position.

 

The same is true for Newcomb. Pitchers, unlike hitters, at least have velocity readings to point to beyond their stats.

 

As for Conforto, he's very Geoff Jenkins-esque. Good hitter, good power and a very good arm, but his upside is more limited than Jenkins' at the same stage of their respective careers.

 

Also, my PG cohort Kendall Rogers tweeted this the other day on Michael Cederoth. The velo has been there since his freshman year, so if his command, breaking stuff does come together he's an easy top 3-5 pick next June.

 

Kendall Rogers ‏@KendallRogersPG 8 Oct

Elite 2014 prospect, @SDSUBaseball RHP Michael Cederoth sitting 97-100 this fall, showing much improved CH, better SL. Nasty. #mlbdraft

[sheetskout]

I would be extremely happy with Cederoth at 12 at this point. I'm expecting him to bump towards the draft into the top ten with another college season.

 

I just feel we have to go pitching here, unless an impact natural talent such as Alex Jackson falls to 12.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just looking up 3 quick Mocks and what they have Milw selecting:

Brady Aiken

Nick Gordon

Okay well 2 and then a top players overall guide has

Grant Holmes at 12th. Name I haven't seen in this thread. HS P out of Conway,SC.

 

It would appear everyone is on the page that Milw needs to select a P with their pick. And now being at 12 I would agree. if we remained top 7 I'd be on the best overall player board. HS Pitcher is a must take.

[nate82]

It would appear everyone is on the page that Milw needs to select a P with their pick. And now being at 12 I would agree. if we remained top 7 I'd be on the best overall player board. HS Pitcher is a must take.

 

Again no. You should never be making a pick based on need ever. I don't care where you are picking you never pick based on need you always take the best player available. If the BPA is a pitcher and you are stacked at pitching guess what you are taking the pitcher because they are the BPA.

[brewcrewdue80]

It would appear everyone is on the page that Milw needs to select a P with their pick. And now being at 12 I would agree. if we remained top 7 I'd be on the best overall player board. HS Pitcher is a must take.

 

Again no. You should never be making a pick based on need ever. I don't care where you are picking you never pick based on need you always take the best player available. If the BPA is a pitcher and you are stacked at pitching guess what you are taking the pitcher because they are the BPA.

 

Guess what I was getting to is that players being mocked as picked by Milwaukee are Pitchers.

 

I like BPA but there is such a need to get an Ace type pitching prospect, I'm overlooking the BPA position player unless his talent far exceeds anyone else on the draft board.

 

I am looking ahead at the future of this game and all I envision is every pitching prospect becoming overvalued beyond ML talent just for the fact a gem pitcher has so much value. look at the number of top pitchers and a bunch of them aren't playing for the team that drafted them. I foresee it being harder to acquire pitching, I'm thinking harder to make any trades in general. And part of that is because there's 5 post season spots, it's easier to get in. Not a fan of the 5th playoff team whatsoever. Think about the moves Cinncinati or Pittsburgh may have made if they already hadn't locked up a playoff spot around the trade deadline. Rather than make a move to beat one another for the final spot, they both were comfortably there and in. Sure Pitt made a couple trades but Cincy didn't have to respond they liked what they had and stuck with the team.

 

So for me, I view the future of building an organization is by drafting pitching, a lot of them. Getting 1 ace out of a draft every 5 years will keep a team competitive. That is what Tampa has done. Rather than pay to have Price,Shields,Garza,Kazmir this season they rolled only with Price and remained competitive because they acquired young ace like pitching in return and drafted ace pitching.

 

Look at Dodgers/St Louis series. Kershaw,Grienke,Wacha,Wainwright and even Miller/Ryu

 

Tell me now who's your favorite for 2014 in the Central and West? And why? It'll be these 6 names mentioned first. Followed by the other players. Not because LA has Kemp,Gonzalez,HanRam or Stl having Molina,Holliday,Carpenter.

[paul253]

You should never be making a pick based on need ever. I don't care where you are picking you never pick based on need you always take the best player available. If the BPA is a pitcher and you are stacked at pitching guess what you are taking the pitcher because they are the BPA.

 

 

I disagree. You don't have to always take the BPA or ignore need. I don't know how teams grade players but if a player in a position of need grades just a shade lower than the player you have listed as BPA I see no reason why you can't take the player at the position of need. I agree that if you need, say, a third basemen you don't necessarily take the best available third basemen. But if you have a need for a position and ignore it year after year after year because the BPA does not play that position you create a huge hole in your organization, as the Brewers have at such positions as third base and until recently shortstop and catcher. You can't keep selecting outfielders simply because the best player available plays that position. Right now the Brewers have a huge surplus of outfielders and a lack of quality pitching, third basemen, and catchers. While I don't want the Brewers to reach with their pick I can't say I won't be disappointed if they selected yet another outfielder.

[sheetskout]

It would appear everyone is on the page that Milw needs to select a P with their pick. And now being at 12 I would agree. if we remained top 7 I'd be on the best overall player board. HS Pitcher is a must take.

 

Again no. You should never be making a pick based on need ever. I don't care where you are picking you never pick based on need you always take the best player available. If the BPA is a pitcher and you are stacked at pitching guess what you are taking the pitcher because they are the BPA.

 

I completely disagree with this as well. There have been plenty of examples where teams have selected based on some other criteria besides BPA and have worked out well.

 

Take the 2009 draft as an example as most of the first-round players selected have graduated or been phased out on their natural timelines. Both Mike Minor or Mike Leake were not the BPA's early in the draft, both have resulted in a ton of quality starts and have received playoff experience. Tyler Matzek, widely regarded as having better frontline stuff out of the draft hasn't pitched a major-league inning. Drew Storen, also in the same draft taken as a known-reliever has turned into a serviceable MLB pitcher while better athletes such as Jared Mitchell, Randal Grichuk, and Brett Jackson have struggled.

 

While these examples don't define any universal rule with regard to draft strategy, I believe that's the point in itself. There doesn't seem to be any correlation with a BPA attitude working on as any overriding rule. (Matt Bush, Donovan Tate, Dustin Ackley, Kyle Skipworth, Justin Smoak, and on and on and on)

[nate82]

 

I completely disagree with this as well. There have been plenty of examples where teams have selected based on some other criteria besides BPA and have worked out well.

 

Take the 2009 draft as an example as most of the first-round players selected have graduated or been phased out on their natural timelines. Both Mike Minor or Mike Leake were not the BPA's early in the draft, both have resulted in a ton of quality starts and have received playoff experience. Tyler Matzek, widely regarded as having better frontline stuff out of the draft hasn't pitched a major-league inning. Drew Storen, also in the same draft taken as a known-reliever has turned into a serviceable MLB pitcher while better athletes such as Jared Mitchell, Randal Grichuk, and Brett Jackson have struggled.

 

While these examples don't define any universal rule with regard to draft strategy, I believe that's the point in itself. There doesn't seem to be any correlation with a BPA attitude working on as any overriding rule. (Matt Bush, Donovan Tate, Dustin Ackley, Kyle Skipworth, Justin Smoak, and on and on and on)

 

I wouldn't call those players as being success unless you are talking about wanting the Brewers to take low ceiling players which is going to bring down the wrath of other posters who have been howling about the Brewers doing this exact strategy. BPA should be the strategy if it doesn't work it is fine as you are taking the best player that is available when you are drafting.