2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[paul253]

Right now there are 5 teams within one game of each other. Milwaukee, Colorado, Philly, NYM, and Toronto. Giants are two games ahead of Milwaukee. I have a bad feeling about this. The Brewers play like crap the entire season then when draft pick position is on the line they look like a playoff team. Hopefully they lose 4 or their final 5 and keep that 7th pick. It'd be a real shame after all this to end up with 11 or 12.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's now down to 6th through 13th. Still have to fear the lose in tiebreaker over every team buy San Fran. 4 Teams with 85 losses 2 less than Milw that our 7th would become 10th on a tie. No top 5 hope anymore.

[brewmann04]

Thanks for the site

[SoupTown]

It points to an overall management problem / philosophy with this organisation. They con themselves every year into beliveing a few wins in garbage time is more important than developing what talent they have.

 

I assume (I dont read the other teams boards that are diving down past us) other organisations realise they are 'out of it when they 15 to 20 games back' and play for next year (developing talent and giving them experience).

 

By the way, if we get, say down to the 13th pick, can we sign a free agent and LOSE IT and have no first round pick. Maybe it is just a money saving strategy by our brilliant management. Clever like a fox!

[paul253]

We are now in a 4 way tie with Philly, Colorado and Toronto and lose the tiebreaker to every single one of these teams. It just bothers me that guys like Aoki and Lucroy are still playing every day. Like you said Soup, the Brewers have convinced themselves that a 70-92 year is so much better than a 68-94 year when in reality all it does is allow more talented players to be sucked up by other organizations in the draft. The difference between the 7 and 12 picks is pretty significant. I would not be surprised in the least bit if the Brewers win 3 of 4 against the Mets and draft after Colorado, Philly, Toronto, SF and the Mets.

 

Also, does Johnny Hellweg pitch with a rabbit's foot in his back pocket? The guy walks four, hits two others, and throws a wild pitch in addition to giving up two hits and only manages to give up 1 run? Amazing. We had no business winning this game. I guess unlike us the Mets realize that they are better off losing.

[JohnBriggs12]

We are now in a 4 way tie with Philly, Colorado and Toronto and lose the tiebreaker to every single one of these teams. It just bothers me that guys like Aoki and Lucroy are still playing every day. Like you said Soup, the Brewers have convinced themselves that a 70-92 year is so much better than a 68-94 year when in reality all it does is allow more talented players to be sucked up by other organizations in the draft. The difference between the 7 and 12 picks is pretty significant. I would not be surprised in the least bit if the Brewers win 3 of 4 against the Mets and draft after Colorado, Philly, Toronto, SF and the Mets.

 

Also, does Johnny Hellweg pitch with a rabbit's foot in his back pocket? The guy walks four, hits two others, and throws a wild pitch in addition to giving up two hits and only manages to give up 1 run? Amazing. We had no business winning this game. I guess unlike us the Mets realize that they are better off losing.

 

Seriously??? They are playing without Gomez, Ramirez, and Segura, have a 3-4-5 hitters of Lucroy, Davis and Gindl and you think they are trying too hard?? Mets had Wright and Murphy, arguably their two best hitters in their lineup and they're right in that mix too. Fans pay good money for major league baseball. If the Brewers are truly a 74 win team and not a 71 win team, then so be it. Most of the guys the Brewers are putting on the field aren't guaranteed jobs next year. You can't expect them to lie down. Roenicke won't likely be around when whoever is drafted in 2014 is ready for the major leagues. He likely cares more about his overall managerial record than the 2018 Brewer outlook.

[paul253]

They are playing without Gomez, Ramirez, and Segura

For the record, the only reason they are playing without Gomez is because he was suspended and the only reason they are playing without Segura is because he is hurt. They'd both be in the lineup if they were available.

 

Look, I am not suggesting the Brewers lie down and intentionally lose. But they have young guys who need extended looks too. I can't understand why Aoki has to play every day. Why not let Davis and Gindl play at the same time a few games in a row? Why move Aoki to CF for the first time all year instead of letting Schafer get another start when Gomez was suspended? And apparently they are worried enough about keeping Lucroy healthy that they'll move him to first base every so often. But not worried enough, I guess, to let Maldonado play more than once every five or six days and give Lucroy a day off. And if you are going to bring up Jimmy Nelson why not let him start a few times instead of putting even more innings on Gallardo or Lohse's arm? That's the kind of stuff I mean.

 

I just don't get why Roenicke has been playing this last month or so like he is challenging for the division. If the young guys win the young guys win. But 17 games below .500 with a month to go I just don't see why you still have to play Ramirez, Gomez, Lucroy, and Aoki every day.

[JohnBriggs12]

paul253, Roenicke hasn't been managing like he's challenging for the division. He's been dividing up playing time pretty well. Much of the month, they've played contenders within their own division and he's tried to win those games because there is something to be gained by beating those teams in terms of confidence going into next season. Aoki's finishing strong increases his trade value so I have no problem playing him when he's going well. Last night he was 0-4 and had nothing to do with the game being won. They've been winning primarily because the pitching down the stretch has been strong, and you can't ask pitchers to back off can you?

 

Gomez is finishing off a career year where he's dropped off some in the 2nd half. I have no problem with Roenicke giving him ample opportunities to finish strong.

 

Bottom line is it's hard to criticize a manager for going all out to win on one hand and giving ample playing time to Betancourt and Francisco on the other.

[brewcrewdue80]

So how's the 13th selection looking?

[Mass Haas]

So did you want to see Mike Gonzalez or Burke Badenhop instead of Wooten-Kintzler-Henderson in either of these two games?

 

It hurts my brain to read half this thread.

 

Put yourself in the Brewers dugout. This isn't a 100-loss team, sorry to tell you that.

 

Kudos to Roenicke and staff. I invested nearly three hours and enjoy watching the Brewers trade high-fives as the payoff for my watching the game. Imagine that.

[splitterpfj]

I cannot, will not, won't ever root for my team to lose...not ever, not once.

 

I'd worry about this if I was certain the first player picked will be the best player from this draft, the 15th player picked will be the 15th best big leaguer, etc, but that just doesn't happen.

 

The key is to get it right in June, there's no way I believe there will only be 5-6 players worth having next year, nor will I believe the teams who pick before Milwaukee will all get it right in the first place.

 

St Louis built winning teams for years, based around Albert Pujols, later Yadier Molina, and a bunch of guys who came from other organizations...now, they're doing it with a great farm system that has not had the benefit of top five picks along the way. You can have the, "I hope we lose to the Mets" strategy, I'll go with, "I hope we've done our homework", and I'll enjoy today's game.

[paul253]

So did you want to see Mike Gonzalez or Burke Badenhop instead of Wooten-Kintzler-Henderson in either of these two games?

 

I've already made suggestions as to what I would have liked to see them do. For instance, if you are so concerned about Lucroy wearing down behind the plate that you actually change his position a few times what harm would it do to give him a day off more than once a week? Are we afraid that we'll lose 92 games instead of 90 games? And if you are going to bring up Jimmy Nelson, why is it absolutely necessary to stash him away in the bullpen, pitching once a week instead of letting him start three or four games and saving 20 innings on Gallardo's or Lohse's arm? And why, when you have two young outfielders who are performing very well, can you not ever bring yourself to sit Aoki and let them both play at the same time? Is Aoki really going to increase his trade value in those 10 or 15 extra games?

 

To be perfectly honest, yes I would prefer they lose these last two games. I'm not going to cheer every time the Mets score but the fact is winning the games is absolutely meaningless while picking 5 spots higher could mean a hell of a lot. I get it. You need to hit on draft picks. But would you not agree it is much easier to hit on draft picks when you are picking higher?

 

There are only so many guys who profile as #1's and they go rather quickly. Sure you can hit on a later round draft pick but the fact is you are more likely to hit on guys earlier on. Just a quick look at the top 20 overall ERA leaders in MLB right now, starting with the lowest overall ERA

 

(1) Clayton Kershaw: first round pick

(2) Jose Fernandez: first round pick

(3) Matt Harvery: first round pick

(4) International free agent not drafted

(5) not drafted

(6) not drafted

(7) Zach Greinke: first round pick

(8) Madison Baumgarner: first round pick

(9) not drafted

(10) Cliff Lee: fourth round pick

(11) Max Scherzer: first round pick

(12) not drafted

(13) Stephen Strasburg: first round pick

(14) Adam Wainwright: first round pick

(15) not drafted

(16) not drafted

(17) Shelby Miller: first round pick

(18) Chris Sale: first round pick

(19) Andrew Cashner: first round pick

(20) not drafted

 

11 of the top 20 overall ERA leaders were first round picks. 8 were free agent signings, which leaves one guy who wasn't drafted in the first round. I realized ERA isn't the only factor in determining who the best pitchers are but you can't argue that success of the earlier draft picks. So again, to be brutally honest, losing the last two games and picking 3 or 4 spots earlier is probably going to much more helpful to the franchise in the long run than winning the last two games. Yes you have to hit on the pick but the earlier you pick the more options you'll have.

[James Zumstein]

I cannot, will not, won't ever root for my team to lose...not ever, not once.

 

I'd worry about this if I was certain the first player picked will be the best player from this draft, the 15th player picked will be the 15th best big leaguer, etc, but that just doesn't happen.

 

The key is to get it right in June, there's no way I believe there will only be 5-6 players worth having next year, nor will I believe the teams who pick before Milwaukee will all get it right in the first place.

 

St Louis built winning teams for years, based around Albert Pujols, later Yadier Molina, and a bunch of guys who came from other organizations...now, they're doing it with a great farm system that has not had the benefit of top five picks along the way. You can have the, "I hope we lose to the Mets" strategy, I'll go with, "I hope we've done our homework", and I'll enjoy today's game.

 

Thank you! Someone on Brewerfan that is actually, what's the term I'm looking for, a Brewer Fan! I agree that these wins are meaningless in the end, but that doesn't mean you lay down and curl yourself up in a ball. Going forward, the Brewers as a team will already be labeled as cheaters because of Braun, now people are suggesting that we be labeled as quitters too?

[Mass Haas]

I can't imagine not cheering for Jimmy Nelson to win his first start today.

 

Jose Fernandez was drafted 14th. Wainwright was drafted 29th. Miller 19th. Sale 13th. Cashner 19th. That's nearly half your list.

 

Enjoy the games this weekend. Do your job, Brewers, now, and then next June, and then developing those June picks along the way.

 

That's what I'm rooting for...

[LouisEly]

And if you are going to bring up Jimmy Nelson, why is it absolutely necessary to stash him away in the bullpen, pitching once a week instead of letting him start three or four games and saving 20 innings on Gallardo's or Lohse's arm?

Because Nelson has already pitched 30 more innings than last year, so another 20 innings puts him at 50 more innings than last year which puts him at additional injury risk.

 

We are now in a 4 way tie with Philly, Colorado and Toronto and lose the tiebreaker to every single one of thes

The reason they lose the tiebreaker is because the Brewers have a tougher strength of schedule than those teams. The Brewers aren't a 90 loss team - they just play in the toughest division in baseball. Same as Atlanta isn't a 95-win team; they get to beat up on the Marlins, Phillies, and Mets instead of playing St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.

 

St Louis built winning teams for years, based around Albert Pujols, later Yadier Molina, and a bunch of guys who came from other organizations

From 1997 through 2007 the Cardinals drafted and signed only two impact starting pitchers - Dan Haren and Jaime Garcia - and they traded Haren for Mark Mulder, who had one decent year for them and then went to pot. Didn't stop them from winning a World Series in 2006. (They drafted but didn't sign Max Scherzer and Ian Kennedy, so you can criticize them as much as the Brewers for not signing Rodon and Arrieta.)

 

Jose Fernandez was drafted 14th. Wainwright was drafted 29th. Miller 19th. Sale 13th. Cashner 19th. That's nearly half your list.

Don't forget Max Scherzer, who was drafted #11, exactly where the Brewers are sitting now.

[paul253]

Thank you! Someone on Brewerfan that is actually, what's the term I'm looking for, a Brewer Fan!

 

I figured this argument would come up eventually. If you think people who want to put the Brewers in the best position to obtain top flight talent, even it is at the expense of losing a few extra games, so be it. That's like saying the someone who wants to trade an established Major Leaguer for prospects isn't a real fan because that would be "quitting".

Jose Fernandez was drafted 14th. Wainwright was drafted 29th. Miller 19th. Sale 13th. Cashner 19th. That's nearly half your list.

 

I've never claimed you can't get a good player later in the round or later in the draft. All I said was that it is easier to find that talent early on. Do you disagree?

The reason they lose the tiebreaker is because the Brewers have a tougher strength of schedule than those teams.

Did something change? I thought the tie breaker was based on last year's record?

[brewcrewdue80]

We are now in a 4 way tie with Philly, Colorado and Toronto and lose the tiebreaker to every single one of thes

The reason they lose the tiebreaker is because the Brewers have a tougher strength of schedule than those teams. The Brewers aren't a 90 loss team - they just play in the toughest division in baseball. Same as Atlanta isn't a 95-win team; they get to beat up on the Marlins, Phillies, and Mets instead of playing St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.

 

 

Jose Fernandez was drafted 14th. Wainwright was drafted 29th. Miller 19th. Sale 13th. Cashner 19th. That's nearly half your list.

Don't forget Max Scherzer, who was drafted #11, exactly where the Brewers are sitting now.

 

 

The tiebreaker is record from last season. So we had a better record than all 3 and if we lose tomorrow and they all win and tie us even though we will have the same record we will lose that tiebreaker I'm sure once again for 2014...Though it's doubtful it should come in to play but you never know. That's b2b season finishing right with Philly.

 

As it stands Milw has the 11th worst record...but the 12th pick in draft since Toronto has the 11th selection for not signing their 10th pick. So no on the Max Scherzer comparison. And the top ten picks are protected from QO signings so there's another hit by Milwaukee finishing with these wins no protection to sign a QO player. Considering the way the team is headed the only answer right now to justify their moves is to buy for 2014 so I'm fully expecting a major signing. That means another season without a #1 draft pick. So yeah I was rooting for the team to lose a couple more games this week not to finish with likely 5straight wins.

 

And as stated earlier in this thread, this just isn't about having a 5th or top ten pick, it's the money allotment tied to the draft as well as the international players. Start of the week Milw was 7th and now fall to 11th. That's 600k in international money/900k with 50% overage or more money than the highest paid signing we had this season at 800k. Meaning a top 25 international player lost due to these wins. And/or maybe the difference between signing 2 top 30 players and signing a top 3 player with serious talent potential.

 

It's just a kick to the teeth because even though a 12th pick can be successful, the expectations are likely for the player to take 3-5years to make it on to the team vs. seeing a top 6 pick maybe make in 2-3max. Oh, and our history with the 12th pick? Jungmann tbd, Mike Jones 0games, Ken Felder 0games not good.

[paul253]

I'm actually counting only 9 teams with records worse than the Brewers. In reverse order:

 

1) Houston

2) Miami

3) White Sox

4) Cubs

5) Twins

6) Seattle

7) Colorado

8) Mets

9) Philadelphia

 

The Brewers can still finished tied with Toronto and/or SF. We'd win the tie break with SF and lose the tie break with Toronto. So the only way we can get the #10 pick and not risk losing our first round pick should we sign a FA who turned down a QO is if we lose and Toronto wins.

[miggs721]

The 12th pick was pretty solid last year, DJ Peterson, just sayin picking 12th isn't all that bad as some of you make it out to be, and us signing a top FA id say this offseason is unlikely

[logan82]

The 12th pick was pretty solid last year, DJ Peterson, just sayin picking 12th isn't all that bad as some of you make it out to be, and us signing a top FA id say this offseason is unlikely

We thought the same thing going into this season just before our first pick was thrown away. I believe the FO will sign a pick and up our payroll for next year with the expectation we will have a lot of money coming off at the end of the year.

[LouisEly]

If Milwaukee loses today and Toronto wins the Brewers finish with the 10th pick. Toronto will have picks #11 and #12.

[paul253]

I forgot about Toronto getting that extra pick. Kind of an extra slap in the face. On top of Toronto losing today to put is a tie that they win but they also get an additional pick before us. A few weeks ago I was thinking we could grab a college guy with ace potential. Now I think the most likely bet is a hard throwing high school righty.

[SoupTown]

Toronto started a part time, maybe, who knows 28 year old back end ceiling guy. He gave up 6 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Toronto lose trying out fringe prospects

 

Whereas our Crew put their bet lineup possible. Squeezing every out and inning possible from the established guys. Now guys like Nelson and Halton can return to AAA for more seasoning (I quite RR). I guess riding the pine did not season them enough

 

I do find it amazing all the teams near us went like 3-7 or 4-6 the last 10 whilst we squeezed out the wins. Other teams (I assume - like Toronto today) were trotting out their maybe prospects. Our maybe prospects will take another year to evaluate because we need to push had in garbage time

 

Great great management ( how do you do the blue )

 

Oh if we played prospects down the stretch and WIN that is what I want. If they stink you learn and get higher draft picks. If they play well and we win we don't need the higher picks. Is it THAT hard to figure out?

[miggs721]

I have them taking Michael Conforto from Oregon St

[brewmann04]

brewers dont get a top pick geez well at least we finished strong