2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[brewmann04]

Totally agree seem to have some promising Hitters in the Minors but need pitching

[colbyjack]

Touki Toussaint is essentially Jeremy Jeffress at this stage in his career. Electric arm, but zero command. No way do I take that big of a risk in the top 10 picks.

 

Tyler Kolek, Grant Holmes, Luis Ortiz and Kodi Medeiros are the top, most well rounded prep pitchers at this point in time.

 

I know I'll be ignored and disagreed with, but if there's an impact bat wherever they pick, they better not reach for an arm just because it's perceived to be the greater need. There is a severe lack of impact bats in the system right now (there's just a severe lack of impact overall talent that needs to be addressed).

[splitterpfj]

Colbyjack, you won't be ignored or disagreed with by me...if they take a pitcher, just because he's a pitcher, I'll be angry.

 

The Brewers need to draft the best baseball player they can get, if he's a pitcher, that's fine, but if he's not, that's fine too.

[James Zumstein]

I also agree with you, Colbyjack. I watched Toussaint pitch in the PG Game at Petco, and the comparison to Jeffress was spot on. I wouldn't consider him with a top 10 pick, period. From what I can tell about this draft class, pitching is more prevalent than hitting, so I'd hate to see them overreach to take a bat just because there is a scarcity of them, but the most important thing at the end of the day is to draft THE most talented player available.

[paul253]

I'll agree with Colby as well.....unless they take an outfielder. I know you want best player available but outfield seems to be the only position they are good at developing. On top of having Braun for 8 more years and Gomez for three more years, they also have Logan Schafer, Khris Davis and Caleb Gindl who are all major league ready. They have Kentrail Davis who looks like he can at least contribute. Then they have Michael Reed, Tyrone Taylor, Mitch Haniger and Victor Roache all in the lower levels. Outfield is already stocked and they don't need another one right now, especially with so many other holes to fill. If they take an outfielder with a top ten pick I will be severely disappointed.

 

Though I personally am hoping for a pitcher, I'd also be ok with a shortstop (you can never have too many), third basemen (we have none) or even catcher (who knows what's going on with Clint Coulter). First base I guess I wouldn't mind but we've got so many names in the minors right now (Morris, Halton, Cooper, Giacolone) that I'd like to give it a year to see how they all play out. That Schwarber dude from Indiana looks like a beast though and I remember thinking when I was watching him in the CWS that I wouldn't mind having him on this team, but most publications see him being picked a little lower than where the Brewers projected pick is.

 

Either way I think the only ways the Brewers can screw up this is to take pick a HS pitcher with no control or a low to mid ceiling college pitcher.

[colbyjack]

You know, I'm not even going to say that the Brewers shouldn't draft an outfielder. Yes, Braun is signed for a very long time, and the team has Gomez for 3 more years, but is there really any one guy that you are comfortable with for the future? Any player the team drafts is at least 3 years away from being a solid, everyday contributor, so it's not like Gomez' contract should effect what the team is thinking anyway.

 

And while there are so many names at 1B in the minors, do any of them project long-term? I don't think so, and I don't even think it's close. I do think Schwarber is an interesting name for the Brewers though. He's not a top-10 candidate as you noted, but given his profile it's not too crazy to imagine him being available in the comp round.

 

There are a lot of players that project as either average regulars or solid backups right now in the Brewers system, but very few, if any, that project as legitimate perennial impact players. That's scary IMO, and as I noted before, they need to figure out a way to change that quickly.

 

Anyway, Kiley McDaniel, whose one of the best scouts/writers out there, offered his top 50 prospects for next year's draft, for free, last week. For the most part this is a solid ranking of who you can expect to see taken among the top 50 picks next year:

 

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1318151.html

[splitterpfj]

The Brewers could still wind up picking as high as third, or as low as thirteenth, but I don't see either happening.

 

I think the White Sox will pick third, which at the moment would leave the Brewers, Cubs and Twins in a pile for the 4th pick. I'll say the Angels, Blue Jays and Rockies will win more games than the Brewers, which basically puts the Brewers somewhere between 4 and 10.

 

I'll split the difference and say Milwaukee picks 7th.

 

If that's true, the first two picks sure look they'll be the two pitchers, Carlos Rodon and Jeff Hoffman. I'll guess that Tyler Kolek and Alex Jackson definitely don't get to the Brewers.

 

If this plays out, looking at Kiley McDaniel's current rankings, (which will no doubt change several times in the interim), the best players left in the Brewers' range would be a shortstop, a left fielder, a first baseman, a player who could either be a center fielder or a pitcher, and then two pitchers, followed by another shortstop.

 

In other words, the Brewers could take almost anything...and that's exactly how they should play it.

[logan82]

We also don't know how Braun will age. He will be 30 at the beginning of next season.

[LouisEly]

If Kolek and Jackson are off the board when the Brewers pick, I'm wondering what people think about doing something similar to what the Royals did last year. If no one available really stands out and the next 10-15 guys on the board have similar upside/talent/projections, go with a guy who will sign for $600-$800K below slot and use that later in the draft to get a first-round talent who slips into the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

If all goes well Beede improves his control but if not could be that type of player. A guy who also intrigues me is Luke Weaver of Florida State. In 98 innings last year he gave up only 78 hits, struck out 119 and walked only 19. HRs were a little high (5, which may scare off the Brewers), but they say he took a step forward with Team USA and has been hitting 97. If they can sign Weaver for below slot and Medeiros slips into the 2nd because of his height, they could come out of the draft with Weaver, Medeiros, and use the balance pick on a guy like Flaherty, Marshall, Shannon, or another first round talent that slips.

 

Forbes and Gatewood intrigue me too and I'll be interested to see how they develop this year.

[paul253]

Aaron Nola from LSU looks like he has some fantastic numbers. Any word on his velocity? He could be a consideration for the second round or competitive balance pick.

[colbyjack]

splitter, regarding the draft order, I kind of view it similar to a team making a late playoff push. We've all seen the stats of how difficult it is to make up X amount of games in Y amount of time. I think the reverse is true for the draft order, as I would be surprised if the Brewers significantly slipped out of their current position (6th).

 

Louis, the Brewers really haven't shown any tendencies of being creative with their draft picks. They usually draft and sign guys at each and every spot for slot value, but I like the idea.

 

Aaron Nola is a fantastic pitcher, one of my favorites to watch. He's a true pitcher, and you can probably already guess that this means he doesn't have the stuff to profile as a true staff ace. But he could pitch his way to being one. He usually throws 89-91, but can peak at 93/94 in the early frames. He commands his fastball incredibly well, it has some late life to it, and he also throws a very polished curveball and changeup. There's still some projection to his frame, so it's possible he boosts his stuff up another tick or two, but for those that say they don't want a mid-rotation starter with the team's first-round pick, you probably won't like his profile very much.

 

Although I very much doubt he slips out of the first round. Baseball America had him ranked No. 10 on their recent top prospect list for 2014, and I agree with that lofty ranking.

[brewmann04]

Pitching pitching and more pitching.

[brewcrewdue80]

This will all come down to the Cubs/Mets series. If the Brewers win those series they will pick 8th. If they lose them then we are in the 4th-6th pick likelihood. Seattle/Mets as mentioned earlier are Tanking. Minnesota and Cubs are just bad. San Diego has pulled a little ahead to look in the 10th pick. and San Fran we have the tiebreaker so I expect them to remain above Milw. Let's keep those L's coming and a top 5 pick!

[paul253]

The Mets have a fairly easy schedule, with 4 against Miami coming up. They also play Philly and SF. SD's is brutal (Atlanta, Pitt, Arizona, LAD) and so is Minnesota's (TB, Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland). If I had to guess I'd say the Brewers best case scenario is 6th, behind Houston, Miami, CWS, CHC, and Minnesota. I think worst case scenario is those teams plus Seattle, MYM, and SF (who still has to play the Yankees and Dodgers 10 times) for the 9th pick. The last thing with need is a hot streak that pushes up past Philly, SD, and Colorado as well. That would be a terrible ending to a terrible season.

[brewmann04]

I just hope the brewers will lose like they did in may. And hope for a miracle that they get a top 5

[TheCrew07]

Regarding whom or what to draft next June I just want to reiterate that tie should to go to the pitcher, but in the past I think the organization has leaned drastically the other way.

 

1 pitcher with legitimate upside out of each draft simply isn't enough, we'd have to hit on every single one and no organization does that, the only team that's even come close is San Fran, they've had a remarkable run with high school kids.

 

I still maintain we need to take a TB approach, sprinkling young men with legitimate upside throughout the first 15 rounds, I'd like 3 truly projectable pitchers taken each year, the Brewers just don't have the precise scouting acumen to target 1 player a draft and be successful. There is just no way the Brewers can retain impact starting pitching long-term if we don't develop it in-house.

 

Simply put it's terrible that we have no one in A ball or higher that any of us can comfortably project to be at least a #2 assuming good health, and what's worse is the total lack of left handed starting pitching in the organization.

 

Once again I do like some of the position players taken over the last couple of years, but without pitching we'll never be able to compete with any consistency. We've been down the all bat/no pitching road, we know where that leads... 1 play-off series win since 2006, time for a different tact.

[TheCrew07]

2013 Summer College League Top Prospects Index

[brewcrewdue80]

7th and climbing. Fortunately the 11-13th teams are on a winning run like the Brewers. 3.5 ahead of Philly for 13th. It really isn't looking good with Cubs/Mets series and the younger guys again helping the team to win...whodathunk? I can see an 8-5 record rest of the way and settling at 12th worst record(13th pick) Cant believe we keep beating Cinncy!

[Outlander]

I think they end up 7th at worst but think they can still pull out a top 5 pick. Fully expect the Cardinals to sweep them this weekend, Brewers will just be playing out the string on the road. Probably finish 4-9 or 5-8.

[paul253]

I think at this point it's a given that they'll pick below Houston, Miami, CWS and CHC. I think it's likely they'll pick behind Minnesota and Seattle. So that puts them at 7. If they can somehow manage to stay behind NYM, Colorado, and Toronto I'll be ok with 7. If they pass all those teams and pick 10 or god forbid pass S.F. and SD and pick 12 I'll be awfully disappointed. But I think the likeliest scenario now is either 7, 8, 9 or 10.

 

In that range Brandon Finnegan is a name that intrigues me. Hard throwing college pitcher who could also help with our lack of left handed pitching. Two above average pitches it sounds like (fastball and slurve) and a changeup that has some potential.

[brewmann04]

I agree they should not take a Pitcher to grab an Arm especially with control issues. But i also agree they Need Impact Arms.

[Roderick]

I think they end up 7th at worst but think they can still pull out a top 5 pick. Fully expect the Cardinals to sweep them this weekend, Brewers will just be playing out the string on the road. Probably finish 4-9 or 5-8.

 

The only thing we have going for us (to get the better draft pick) when we play a contending team is that RR puts out his best team (which means Yuni) to try and win.

[nate82]

With 8 games remaining it is extremely safe to assume that the Brewers will be picking in the 7-10 range. It is almost nearly impossible for the Brewers to be picking outside of the top 10 right now. With 4 more games left against playoff teams and 4 games against the Mets I am fairly certain the Brewers will be picking in the 7-10 range. It is actually unlikely that the Brewers will have a better record or the same record as the Phillies, Padres, or the Giants. The Rockies, Blue Jays, Mets, and the Mariners are all teams that look to be within range of the Brewers.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers got swept by the Mets in the final series as I believe the Brewers haven't played well in NY the past few years. I also wouldn't be surprised by a 2-2 record against the Mets. If the Brewers get swept by the Cardinals tomorrow this will only increase the Brewers chances of finishing in the 7th or 8th range. I don't believe the Brewers have a chance in catching the Mariners so at best I have the Brewers with the 7th pick and at worst with the 10th pick in the draft.

[brewmann04]

who can we expect to be around that 7th pick

[sheetskout]

MyMLBDraft.com has us taking Beede at 7 overall right now. At least they update a lot.

 

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft

 

(I am neither endorsing or poo-pooing this guess at this point)