2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[Eye Black]

A reminder that the Perfect Game All-American Classic is being broadcast live on MLB Network tonight at 7:00pm CT. The game is being played at Petco Park.

 

Here are the TEAM ROSTERS for the game.

[paul253]

The Brewers better be careful or they are going to be "good" enough to end up with the 12th or 13th pick.

[James Zumstein]

Watching the PG Game on MLB Network, there should be plenty of options no matter where our first pick is. From the pitching standpoint, I am very impressed with LHP's Kodi Medeiros and Justus Sheffield and RHP Sean Reid-Foley. 1B Justin Bellinger would fill a need position in the minors nicely. These are some guys that would definitely improve our minor leagues.

[narwhalattack]

Assuming that the Brewers still have a top 5 pick in the next draft, if they were to go the college arm route, then I would like to see them pick Jeff Hoffman or Michael Cederoth. Both are flamethrowing guys who could sit atop the rotation. If they went the high school arm route I want them to pick Tyler Kolek. The dude's huge AND can hit triple digits. That would be really fun to watch.

[LouisEly]

While I agree that you shouldn't draft based on organizational need, I do think you should look at certain positions and how the players drafted at those positions in the last 2-3 years are performing. With three of the top four picks of the 2012 draft being RH-hitting OFs, unless the next Mike Trout is sitting there I don't want them to draft a RH-hitting OF in the first round, or with any of their top 4-5 picks.

[nate82]

While I agree that you shouldn't draft based on organizational need, I do think you should look at certain positions and how the players drafted at those positions in the last 2-3 years are performing. With three of the top four picks of the 2012 draft being RH-hitting OFs, unless the next Mike Trout is sitting there I don't want them to draft a RH-hitting OF in the first round, or with any of their top 4-5 picks.

 

What if you have the next Buxton sitting there just begging for you to take them and the next best ranked pitcher grades out to be a Scherzer type who do you take? I will take Buxton 10 times out of 9 times. I don't really care what the minors look like if it is stacked with a certain position or not. If the best player available is an OF I am taking that player even if I have a whole bunch of OF's already in the minors as they are all not going to pan out injuries and other things will happen to destroy the perceived depth that is there. You can also always trade from your excess for something of need.

[LouisEly]

Buxton hasn't done anything at AA yet, much less the majors. Delmon Young tore up A-ball and AA as an 18/19 year old #1 overall pick and was the #1-#3 overall prospect for four consecutive years, but has been a 1.3 career WAR player in the majors. Until Buxton puts up consecutive >.950 OPS seasons in the majors like Trout, I'll take the guy who grades out to be like the guy who started the All-Star game for the AL this year.

[brewcrewdue80]

5th and rising for draft choice. 2 games to 10th 3games to 12th/13 since 11 is last year's 10th. 3.5 to 14/15.

 

4th worst to 14th worst record in baseball is separated by 4 Games! And only San Fran and LA Angels lose in tiebreaker with Milwaukee.

 

Brewers on pace for 70wins and 14th on pace for 75wins. That would have been 8th worst and 11th worst last year. With the Brewers losing tiebreakers I'm feeling a more likely outcome to be they pick outside of 10th than they do 5th or 6th as they stand currently. The cost to each move down in draft order:

4th: 5,838,500 in 1st 2 picks plus 3,908,600 in international pool Total: 9,747,100

5th: 5,048,400 in 1st 2 picks plus 3,636,900 in international pool Total: 8,685,300 Difference: -1,061,800

6th: 4,746,100 in 1st 2 picks plus 3,395,200 in international pool Total: 8,141,300 Difference: -544,000 -1.6058mil on 4th

7th: 4,444,500 in 1st 2 picks plus 3,179,900 in international pool Total: 7,624,400 Difference: -516,900 -2.1227/1.069mil on 4/5th

8th: 4,306,000 in 1st 2 picks plus 2,988,100 in international pool Total: 7,294,100 Difference: -330,300 -2.4430/1.3393mil on 4/5th

9th: 4,168,400 in 1st 2 picks plus 2,817,100 in international pool Total: 6,985,500 Difference: -308,600 -2.7526/1.6479mil on 4/5th

10th:4,031,400 1st 2 picks plus 2,664,600 in international pool Total: 6,696,000 Difference: -289,500 -3.0421/1.9374mil on 4/5th

11th:3,922,300 1st 2 picks plus 2,580,000 in international pool Total: 6,502,300 Difference: -194,300

12th:3,824,500 1st 2 picks plus 2,500,800 in international pool Total: 6,325,300 Difference: -177,000

13th:3,727,200 1st 2 picks plus 2,426,000 in international pool Total: 6,153,200 Difference: -172,100

 

One way of looking at it is finishing 4th to 5th to 10th.

4th to 10th is worth 2 1st rd picks in money or another top 10 selection in money. 5th to 10th is worth another top 20 1st rd. selection in money.

 

The difference of 4th to 6th alone is 1 1st rd pick in money. There needs to be some "Tanking" going on to secure as close to a top 4 selection as possible!

[TheCrew07]

Ask BA: 2014 Draft’s Top Prospects

[TheCrew07]

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10 Players Who Made The Most of Their Area Code Games

[TheCrew07]

Team USA Top 20 Prospects

[paul253]

I was just looking at the standings and my very quick (aka possibly incorrect) glance shows 11 teams (Milwaukee, Cubs, SF, SD, Philly, NYM, Colorado, Toronto, LAA, Minnesota, Seattle) within about 4 games of each other. This means that it is almost as likely the Brewers end up with the 4th pick as it is they end up with the 14th pick. That is quite the difference.

 

On a side note I give credit to the White Sox for their absolute tank job. Very impressive.

[narwhalattack]

I really wonder why this team gets hot when it's useless, and tanks when it matters?

[TheCrew07]

Kopech Carves At Under Armour All-America Game

[brewcrewdue80]

I was just looking at the standings and my very quick (aka possibly incorrect) glance shows 11 teams (Milwaukee, Cubs, SF, SD, Philly, NYM, Colorado, Toronto, LAA, Minnesota, Seattle) within about 4 games of each other. This means that it is almost as likely the Brewers end up with the 4th pick as it is they end up with the 14th pick. That is quite the difference.

 

On a side note I give credit to the White Sox for their absolute tank job. Very impressive.

 

And now the White Sox are 8-2 in past ten games. Still with the #3 pick position. But that was what my previous comment in this thread was trying to show.

 

The Brewers are so close to picking outside the top 10 vs. picking in the top 5 and the money difference(in turn expected quality of talent to be brought in) would be a huge disappointment to finish 10th when 2 games may end up being the difference in a 5th selection. Remember the Brewers lose in tiebreakers to almost everyone in the bottom 14.

 

I was trying to show that 1mil+ in available slot money is worth an expected 1st rd. pick type of player. 4th to 6th is 1 alone. 5th to 10th is 1. It's going to be frustrating to see 1 or 2 wins that wind up putting us "in the middle" vs. adding 1 more 1st rd. player in quality. As that is what our organization needs!

It's lame to root for losses, but it's a lost season, the best way to improve next year's outlook is to continue losing and improving our draft position. Not playing .500 ball or a couple few games better than .500 ball.

[colbyjack]

I know TheCrew07 has been very kind to share all kinds of PG links in the past, but if you're a fan of the draft and haven't been following the PG site, be sure to do so. In addition to a ton of coverage on the PG All-American Classic (which was on MLB Network 2 weeks ago) we kicked off our summer collegiate top prospect coverage today. Kendall Rogers will have his reports on the top 20 Team USA players tomorrow, although I had the chance to see most of those guys a month ago:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=8844

 

If you watched the PG AA Classic you will see just how ridiculous Kodi Medeiros' stuff was, who I mentioned above. He made 3 straight hitters, and one very good defensive catcher, look pretty bad in his 1-inning outing.

 

And I'm with you brewcrewdue80. I hate to root against the Brewers, the higher the draft position the better, and since this team has nothing to play for except for pride, why not put themselves in a better position for next year's draft. 3 picks among the top 40-45 picks would make for a rather large draft pool, although I've given up on them employing an aggressive approach.

[brewcrewdue80]

Count the Mets as in full blown Tank mode now that Harvey is out, Buck/Byrd trade. Probably best fail team to take 4th in the race for 4th. Maybe even 3rd if ChiSox aren't careful!

 

This now leads me to seeing Milwaukee as best draft pick scenario being 5th worst 12th. And you can't help but feel the difference of 5th to 12th will be 4games.

[paul253]

I'll bet that Milwaukee finishes outside of the top 10. It's the attitudes of the owner and the management that will continue to play their best players as opposed to their young players. I know I know, Davis and Gennett are every day players. But that is just because there are really no other options. Tyler Thornburg should be in the rotation. I also wouldn't mind seeing Gomez given two or three days off a week. He's clearly not 100% and if he is indeed a core player for the next few years I see no point in risking his reinjuring his knee. Finally, why not save Lucroy's body a bit and play Martin Maldonado more than once every five games?

 

I was so excited when they were fairly solidly locked with a top 5 pick. They could finally get that player who would profile as an ace or as an all star caliber player. Not it's looking like another middle of the pack selection.

[nate82]

I'll bet that Milwaukee finishes outside of the top 10. It's the attitudes of the owner and the management that will continue to play their best players as opposed to their young players. I know I know, Davis and Gennett are every day players. But that is just because there are really no other options. Tyler Thornburg should be in the rotation. I also wouldn't mind seeing Gomez given two or three days off a week. He's clearly not 100% and if he is indeed a core player for the next few years I see no point in risking his reinjuring his knee. Finally, why not save Lucroy's body a bit and play Martin Maldonado more than once every five games?

 

I was so excited when they were fairly solidly locked with a top 5 pick. They could finally get that player who would profile as an ace or as an all star caliber player. Not it's looking like another middle of the pack selection.

 

First the Brewers were never fairly solidly locked with a top 5 pick as the talent on the team even without Braun is better than the Astros, Marlins, Cubs, Twins, and the White Sox not to mention the Brewers pitching is actually better than those 5 teams. The Brewers are at about where they should be without Braun, Hart, Weeks, and a horrible year by Gallardo which is in the 6th-10th pick range.

 

Everyone below the Brewers right now are either of equal talent or better. I fully expect the Giants, Blue Jays, and the Phillies to be on pace with the Brewers or better than the Brewers. The Brewers play the Cardinals 6 more times this month, 3 versus the Reds, 7 vs the Cubs, 3 vs the Pirates, 3 vs the Braves, and 4 vs the Mets. I am rather confident the Brewers will wind up with a pick in the 6th-10th pick range with the schedule that they have left to play.

 

Thornburg is also returning to the rotation. It looks as though they were trying to limit his innings when they moved him to the bullpen as Gorzelany is now moving back to the bullpen and will only be considered as an emergency starter going into next year as he is going to stay in the bullpen.

 

The Brewers also own the tiebreaker (get the lower pick) against the Angels, Giants, and the White Sox as all of those teams had a higher winning percentages than the Brewers last year. I don't see the Brewers picking outside of the top 10 as the schedule that they have left is rather difficult as all but 11 games are against playoff teams. The Braves series maybe a little bit easier as they maybe resting some of their players at that time. The Brewers would have to win both series against the Cardinals, sweep both series against the Cubs, and split the series against the Mets to finish outside of the top 10. I doubt the Brewers will be able to do that at worst I have the Brewers finishing with the 10th pick in the draft which is still a very good pick.

[brewcrewdue80]

Big Series Losing Swept by LA Angels over Milw. Pretty much jettisons them to finish ahead of Milw now in the standings. As it looks now, Colorado is about to get a healthy Carlos Gonzalez back and with Angels now 4.5games ahead of Milw that Milwaukee is in the 4th to 12th draft pick running.

 

6games separate 3rd worst to 12th worst in the standings.

Seattle has called up Taijuan Walker along with those hitters called up couple months ago. Play vs. (3)Houston/(3)Angels 6times all other games are vs. Playoff contending teams. Definitely capable to be passed by Milw.

Philly has a fairly easy schedule remaining and I find it tough to see Milw passing them.

Toronto strong hitting, weak pitching. With their schedule I wouldn't be surprised if Milwaukee finished ahead of them in the W column.

San Fran/SD Good News they play each other 6times. Somebody has to win which means 1 will remain ahead of Milwaukee in standings. Bad news someone loses and that makes them a good bet to have Milw pass them in standings.

San Diego has a tank it type schedule vs. San Fran/Col/Phi and playoff teams Atl/Pitt/LAD I have zero faith in San Diego finishing with more Ws than Milw when the season ends.

 

Min/CWS/CHC these three teams are gutted now and I just figure there's no way Milwaukee finished below them.

 

All told I am seeing Milwaukee finish with the 8th selection and potentially 9 or 10 with Tor/Sea struggles to finish the season. Finding losses vs. the Cubs is key to Milwaukee's improving their draft standing. Finding Wins and a 10th pick looks all but likely.

[Hammer]

The Brewers are currently sitting with the 5th pick. Hopefully they continue to slide when they head to Chitown this weekend and get slaughtered by the Cardinals in those 6 games. I really want this team to end-up with a top 5-6 pick. C'mon Ron...let's start some young guys the rest of the way!

[brewmann04]

I agree no good going to happen with the Brewers winning games. Getting a top 5 pick is the most important thing right now.Looking for another Month like the Crew had in May.

[narwhalattack]

The Brewers are currently sitting with the 5th pick. Hopefully they continue to slide when they head to Chitown this weekend and get slaughtered by the Cardinals in those 6 games. I really want this team to end-up with a top 5-6 pick. C'mon Ron...let's start some young guys the rest of the way!

 

 

What do you mean??? This team can still compete! MOAR VETERANS!!!

[sheetskout]

If the Brewers went high-school with their first-round selection who would you rather have

 

Touki Touissaint

 

or

 

Alex Jackson

 

Because barring a senior-year regression, I'm thinking they will be right around the fifth pick. So potential-impact pitching or potential-impact hitting?

[Hammer]

IMO this team needs pitching, pitching and more pitching. You can never have enough of that commodity.