2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[princeofpop]

I realize this article is almost a year old, but Gatewood was picked #1 2014 draft prospect by Sports Illustrated after last year's draft.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130610/draft-prospects-carlos-rodon/

 

Here's some video of his power:

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v31219169/draft-report-jacob-gatewood-hs-shortstop

[TheCrew07]

Gatewood hasn't hit high school pitching all that well since last summer, there's a reason why he's falling down draft boards. With HS players information 6 months old is outdated...

 

Gatewood has baseball pedigree as his father Henry was drafted in the first round (January phase) of the 1982 draft and has won multiple home run derbies in big league stadiums last summer. At least 70-grade raw power is Gatewood’s best tool and he hit home runs into the third deck of Citi Field and out of Wrigley Field. He has arguably the most raw power in the high school class. His ability to get to that power remains a question for scouts. He has quieted a hand hitch and made mechanical adjustments this spring. Gatewood showed the ability to hit the ball to the opposite field at the NHSI. He is likely going to be a below-average hitter for average but has special hands, looseness, bat speed and leverage in his stroke. A prep shortstop, Gatewood’s 6-foot-4 frame will likely push him to a corner. He has smooth actions, first-step quickness and a plus arm that could make him a solid defender at shortstop. He has wiry strength and could get much stronger and bigger, potentially pushing him to right field. The Southern California commit can post average run times out of the box and is a long strider, though his speed will likely play below that level.

 

He's not Gallo, he's more like Roache, no thanks at #12.

[princeofpop]

That same line of thinking is what got Matt LaPorta drafted #7 overall in 2007 and Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton was drafted #76 overall.

 

With the right minor league coaching, kids can improve their hit tool.

 

You can't teach the kind of power Gatewood has.

 

Future superstar.

[TheCrew07]

I'll take a hit tool over a power tool any day, what good is power if you aren't able to make contact?

 

Stanton was a 3 sport athlete who was extremely raw coming into the draft and while Gatewood drew a Stanton comparison in his PG draft focus article, that doesn't mean he's a superstar in the waiting.

 

I'm not interested in a boom or bust prospect at 12 this year, we need to hit on this pick, but we don't need to hit a HR, which just need an impact player.

 

There's quite a bit to like about Gatewood, but again not at 12, if he's there at #41 absolutely.

 

The Brewers drafted LaPorta with the intention of trading him, he was a high floor player, and I'm not advocating a high floor player either or I'd be thrilled with mocks that have Nola coming to the Brewers at 12.

 

I don't buy into "quick mechanical fixes", that's the same exact thing people said about Jungmann for example and he's now 24 and just finally hitting AAA for the first time. There are certain baselines I'm looking for, or put a different way there is a minimum floor for both hitters and pitchers in the 1st round. I talked much earlier in this thread about what I look for in pitchers at the top of the draft, but with position players I'm looking for hit tool first, if they don't have that I'm moving on, then athleticism, then power. Power can be developed, I don't believe you can teach the ability to put the ball on the bat, nor can you teach athleticism. Beyond the the first round I don't care, latch onto a tool and draft as many high ceiling players as possible.

 

There are plenty of players with 60-70 raw power in the majors that aren't superstars, and there are tons who never made it out of the minors. Power in itself doesn't determine a player's ceiling... Gatewood hit .320ish in the fall and .340ish in the spring vs HS kids. Stanton hit .298 in A as a 18 year old with 39 bombs. If Gatewood can match that I'll happily eat crow and say I was wrong, but I don't think he'll hit as well as Clint Frazier from the 2013 draft who had 70 power but a more compact swing with a similar feel for hitting. It's one thing to have raw power and it's another to be able to translate it.

[docduany]

This draft article was in today's State Journal. The writer talked to some Ebert guy, probably has no idea what he's talking about!

http://host.madison.com/sports/baseball/professional/brewers-milwaukee-expects-some-tough-decisions-with-no-pick-in/article_d82ef70d-7f2d-54c1-bea6-0fa7dfe33aa8.html

[colbyjack]

Hah, thanks doc.

 

Todd, no, the Brewers aren't connected to Chavis from what I can tell, who now seems more likely to go in the 25-35 range. I'm trying to find out why.

 

Pentecost shouldn't be that big of a surprise. Go back and read the early pages of this thread and you'll see that I brought his name up as a realistic possibility for the Brewers after last summer when he won the Cape League MVP.

 

TheCrew07, Gatewood's peak was actually at the beginning of last summer, and just never seemed to click, and struggled at numerous events, including our own, through the rest of the year. He has actually looked better at times this spring, and could go as high as No. 7 to the Phillies. Somewhere in the 15-25 range seems more likely. I have him going #24 to the Pirates in the mock draft I'm currently working on for publication tomorrow.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if you want the best usable power in this year's draft you want Kyle Schwarber.

 

And I'm with Eye Black at Night, Kyle Finnegan is probably my least favorite draft prospect associated with the Brewers pick. With that, welcome to the team's 2014 first-round selection...

[TheCrew07]

I get that Colby, my point was meant to be that with the baseball draft HS players are so fluid that even information from last fall is outdated.

 

Hell in January no one was talking about Aiken #1 overall...

[SRB]

Very interesting Baseball America podcast put up earlier today if you haven't heard it (w/ John Manuel and others)

 

Seemed to be the consensus that there is a lot of depth in pitching (especially high school pitching) while there are fewer top-flight hitters. Since the Brewers have three picks in the top 50, I would love if they went for a bat at #12 and then picked up some quality pitchers that fall to the 40-50 range.

 

Also seemed like they didn't think the college hitters this draft class were particularly exciting (which doesn't necessarily mean they wouldn't still be a good pick at 12, of course). Interesting theory that the college class is relatively weak due to the change in draft rules a few years back when teams splurged on high school signing bonuses (the year the Brewers tried to sign Rodon). I kind of want them to go Gatewood at 12 and then get pitching at 41/50, but since I'm just a fan and this isn't my career it's easy to dream on upside alone.

[princeofpop]

I agree with SRB that the Brewers should consider going with the best bat at #12 and hope that some of this draft's starting pitching depth makes it to pick #41 and #50.

 

It sucks because my favorite two prospects in the draft, left handed masher OF/1B Braxton Davidson and LHP Kodi Meideros are projected to go between picks 15-40, making it likely that the Brewers will not land either one of them. Also noticing that the Cardinals have two picks in that range and will probably pop both players just to piss me off...

 

Colbyjack...What do you think about the strategy of the Brewers picking and signing either Davidson or Meideros to an underslot deal with pick #12 and then using the extra draft pool money on hard to sign high school pitchers at #41 and #50?

 

I think there will be a few nice arms available in that range. Some of my personal favorites:

 

LHP Foster Griffin

RHP Joe Gatto

RHP Keaton McKinney

 

I hope the Brewers nab either SS/3B Jacob Gatewood or RHP Jeff Hoffman with pick #12 because of their considerable ceilings, but if not, I'm hoping they somehow land either Davidson or Meideros.

 

Thoughts?

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers need to seriously consider taking a 1B with #12. The best hitters in this draft are 1Bs, including Casey Gillespie. I'm sure some will say thats an overdraft, just like they did in 2011 when I wanted CJ Cron with our 2nd 1st round pick. Now CJ Cron is mashing in the majors and is the middle of the order caliber 1B we need, while Jed Bradley is unfortunately exactly what I expected him to be. He can't get righthanders out, and profiles as a loogy at best.

 

Gillaspie actually fits our future needs even better than Cron, as he's a switch hitter, an OBA guy, and is a better defender. Unlike other top hitters in this draft, he has shown big improvement each year. The others have had a lower rate of rise, suggesting they're closer to reaching their ceiling. 1st round caliber 1Bs are the safest, most successful 1st round picks made, despite the fact that they're usually drafted later in the round. Gillaspie doesn't swing and miss, and has good work ethic, so he's an incredibly safe pick.

 

I find it interesting that one of the knocks on Casey in his scouting reports is that his brother Conor has struggled. Casey is a significantly better hitter than Conor was at this age, and Conor is now hitting very well in the majors as a 25 year old. What Conor is doing should help Casey's case, if anything.

 

If we have to go pitching, Grant Holmes is an exciting package. The supposed bad body knock doesn't bother me. Remember how Jimmy Nelson was built when we drafted him? I remember being completely disgusted watching him with the T-rats with that frumpy, unconditioned build. Now he's strong and a perfect example of conditioning at its finest, and his stuff has improved dramatically because of it. Holmes doesn't need to improve his velocity, he just needs to maintain it.

 

I agree with TheCrew07 that we don't need to take overwhelming risk with this pick, we simply need to draft intelligently.

[fondybrewfan]

Based on everything I have seen and read if it is a hitter I want Schwarber and if it is a pitcher I want Holmes, Toussaint, or Hoffman. Hoffman would be very interesting; although part of me doesn't want to wait until next July or August before he ever makes a pitch for the organization. I just don't know if I like Pentecost or not. I know you don't pick based on need but catcher might be one of the lowest needs in all of the organization between Lucroy, Coulter, and Zarraga. I am probably forgetting another C too.

 

If all of those players are available I would probably lean towards Toussaint with Holmes a close 2nd. Hopefully that is a nice bat available yet in the 40s

[3and2Fastball]

I was more leaning towards Pentecost until I looked up Clint Coulter's numbers:

 

Clint Coulter is having an awesome season in A Ball so far: hitting .292 with 10 HR's in 50 games and a .978 OPS as just a 20 year old, and throwing out 29% of runners

 

Now if the Brewers think Pentecost is truly something special, like the next Buster Posey or something, that'd be one thing. His comparable is more towards Lucroy than Posey, which is still great, but again I see Schwarber as a special special bat

[princeofpop]

Lucroy is probably as valuable to an organization as Posey if you factor in both hitting and defense (pitch framing). Brewers should not be drafting for need, IMO.

 

Schwarber reminds me of Travis Hafner. He can hit and I like that he is lefthanded, but I wouldn't want Hafner on an NL team. His body type suggests a shorter MLB career, IMO.

 

Gallaspie is underrated right now, IMO. I have heard a comp of Mark Teixiera on him, but that might only be because he is a switch hitter. I think he can be a middle of the order hitter at MLB level.

 

I still think Gatewood is going to be better than either of them though. A cross between Manny Machado and Giancarlo Stanton.

 

I also think Braxton Davidson could be as good as Justin Morneau.

[TheCrew07]

I was more leaning towards Pentecost until I looked up Clint Coulter's numbers:

 

Clint Coulter is having an awesome season in A Ball so far: hitting .292 with 10 HR's in 50 games and a .978 OPS as just a 20 year old, and throwing out 29% of runners

 

Now if the Brewers think Pentecost is truly something special, like the next Buster Posey or something, that'd be one thing. His comparable is more towards Lucroy than Posey, which is still great, but again I see Schwarber as a special special bat

 

His CS % percentage is a function if his incredibly strong arm, not his defensive acumen, he's poor for an A ball catcher behind the plate. In just 32 games behind the plate this year he has 6 errors and 6 PBs, with many more balls getting through him that don't show up in boxscores. I've been provided observations on his catching in the Link Reports on the minor league forum.

 

Regardless if Coulter is able to stick at C if the Brewers think Pentecost is the best player they should take him anyway, you can never have too depth as we found out with Salome/Lucroy. I have very serious concerns about Coulter's ability to catch long-term.

 

My opinion on a bat hasn't changed since my first post on possible draft targets in this thread, if we're taking a bat I'd like it to be Schwarber as a 1B. I don't think he'd be the BPA, but I really don't want Trae Turner or any of the OFs.

[princeofpop]

Totally arbitrary scouting director exercise

 

If you were Brewers scouting director, who would you select out of the following players on your draft board:

 

1. 1B Kyle Schwarber (50% chance of becoming a hitter comparable to Travis Hafner)

2. 1B Casey Gallespie (40% chance of becoming Mark Teixera)

3. 1B Braxton Davidson (30% chance of becoming Justin Morneau)

4. 3B Jacob Gatewood (20% chance of becoming Giancarlo Stanton)

 

I realize that my percentages are probably even too high, but all the fun of the draft is the inflated sense of hope and optimisim...

 

I'm know I'm a gambling man when it comes to upside, but I'd rank my board...

Gatewood

Gallespie

Davidson

Schwarber

 

How would you rank them?

[colbyjack]

princeofpop, I like the idea of signing a player to a friendly deal at No. 12 and going after a couple of arms that may have fallen further than expected as you proposed. However, the Brewers usually pretty much stick to the assigned slots.

 

I'll be on the Big Show with Sparky this afternoon at 3:48 pm central time on 1250 WSSP to talk Brewers and the draft if you'd like to tune in. Live stream available here:

 

http://player.tritonmedia.com/entercom/WSSPAM

[princeofpop]

Thanks Patrick. I'll try to tune in to check it out.

 

It looks like you and your draft knowledge are a hot commodity!

 

As you rise up the ladder to stardom, don't forget about the little guys.

 

Thanks for being a guest on the draft episode of our TV show a few times (2006 thru 2008).

 

I was the producer of The Brew Crew Review (2004-2012)

 

Former brewerfan.net username- Pudster13

[brewcrewdue80]

I am leaning towards a Chavis pick if we can't nab Toussaint or Holmes. (I know I've dogged them, but I don't want another College Pitcher at 12. There is more bust than boom potential in them) Maybe by selecting Chavis the team saves some money and gets another guy who falls with either of the next 2 picks, or both! What you start wondering is does a guy fall due to signability and then with money saved on Chavis the team can go get that guy. The Crew could easily take a guy who falls big and pick him at 41. And then take a College guy at 50 and sign him below slot as well.

 

There is a problem though trying this in this draft. Kansas City has 3 picks before the Brewers pick at 41 so they can easily do this plan and ruin it for Milwaukee. The Marlins have 4 selections, 3 before Milw picks and the 4th at 43 another blocking team. It really looks like Milw will have to draft the best player available on the draft board and on that draft board now, in the 10-18 range in rankings, I feel like 6 of them are going to be busts or just Replacement level players. Wow how sad is this. This really blows that we won 1 more game to go from 8th to 12 in the draft order because you look at the draft order and with Toronto having 2 picks right ahead of Milw and then KC having the 17th,28th,40th and Miami having 2,36,39 It just really squeezes Milw's potential to try anything creative. It's probably a 100% lock their picks will wind up as: Beede,Hoffman, and/or Finnegan. 3 College Pitchers. Or Turner, Conforto, Schwarber,Pentecost 3 College Hitters. All of them have warts one way or another and when you add the warts with their age, I just see bust or age 25/26 of reaching the Brewers.

 

We just wind up picking where the draft board is nothing but College guys. The HS guys Foley,Hill,Chavis,Gatewood,Harrison,Ortiz(sigh my favorite) run in the 17-25 range. and the kicker why I mention KC/Mia squeeze Milw Picks the other HS guys Griffin,Medeiros,Wilson,Davidson,Gettys,Sheffield,Kopech,Wall, and Gatto fall in the 30-40 range which is where KC/Mia will squeeze us with their creativity. We'll probably end up with Luke Weaver at 41 and finally get our HS guy at 50....

This whole draft we wind up so unlucky because the Hoffman/Feede injuries drop them from being picked ahead and Ortiz's injury concern drops him to in between our picks.

 

My thinking is Chavis paired with Lara means for a 2b/3b of the future tandem. Since we won't pick down to a HS pitcher like Ortiz or Foley.

Man I really don't know who I want based on projections I just like guys in the 20ish range more than the 8-17range.

[fondybrewfan]

It sounds like Schwarber is moving up and will probably be gone before #12 comes. If that is the case I absolutely want them to go the pitching route. I don't know if there is bat I would rather have than the 3-4 good arms that should be there at 12. I am read a lot of reviews raving about the great stuff of Toussaint so he is by man crush for now. Of course we will draft him and he will end up like Hellweg; great stuff but can't control it at all.

[princeofpop]

I don't think Schwarber will be off the board when the Brewer pick comes along. I think Toussaint is more than likely gone by then, however. I don't think he will make it past the Blue Jays two picks.

 

If the Brewers are gonna go with an arm, what do you guys think about the Brewers selecting RHP Jeff Hoffman at 12? He was a top 3 draft talent before his TJ surgery. It's a risk I'd like to see the Brewers take at that point. To me it is no more risky than picking a high school pitcher in that range. (like Holmes, Reid-Foley, Adams, Medieros, etc)

[docduany]

I'm on board with Hoffman. With the injury maybe he signs for less? I'd love to get a legit top of the rotation pitcher at 12. If Hoffman isn't the pick then I'd be happy with Holmes or Schwarber.

[TheCrew07]

I'd take Hoffman at 12 for sure, I don't like him as much I like Aiken but he's right there Freeland and Newcomb for me.

 

edit. I should maybe elaborate some in that in Hoffman scares me a bit because of his control but he was definitely great when he was on prior to TJ. Hard to argue with the arm and 2 secondary pitches which flash plus and 3rd averagish one though.

[brewerprospectwatch]

I don't know if there is bat I would rather have l.

 

If Schwarber is rising, maybe Conforto is falling or will fall right into the Brewers hands. I would take Conforto before any of the bats mentioned on this thread. I think he is sort of a sure thing, as opposed to Toussaint or one of the HS arms. And has more long term value than Beede might have.

[fondybrewfan]

Heyman tweeted that Schwarber could go as high as 4 to the Cubs; hence my thought that he could easily be gone before 12.

 

I would really be fine with Hoffman, Holmes, Schwarber, or Toussaint and I am sure I could feel OK if it is someone else that is generally regarded highly. I just don't want them to reach for monetary purposes in the hopes of going above slot later on. BPA available please.

[colbyjack]

I definitely remember the times on Brew Crew Review, glad you're still around. I know the draft always perks a few people up around these parts. You know full well just how good my track record is trying to prognosticate the Brewers pick.

 

I heard yesterday the Cubs are in on Nick Gordon at No. 4. And the Blue Jays reportedly are all over Hoffman at No. 11. If they're not, I would fully support them taking him.