2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[reillymcshane]

Regarding Finnegan, I've read some reports saying he might become a reliever. But I wonder if some of that is that simple bias against smaller pitchers. The same thing was said about Lincecum coming out of college as well.

 

If the club feels he's going to be a starter, I'm okay with him. But like others say, I don't want a reliever.

 

Wasn't that the buzz on Sonny Gray too, when the Brewers passed on him (among others...) in the Draft of Great Shame? Someone should do a study of draft-time "might become a reliever" versus career outcomes.

Exactly. Some people said he was destined for the bullpen. I liked Gray, but I remember the reports about him possibly heading to the bullpen.

 

Draft of Great Shame - nice. Perhaps it will end up okay if Bradley and/or Jungmann turn out okay. There's still time.

[TheCrew07]

Holmes should be third prep arm selected

South Carolina righty leads second tier of high school pitchers after Aiken, Kolek

[TheCrew07]

Pipeline Inbox: Whose Draft stock is rising?

Jim Callis responds to fans' questions about baseball's top prospects

[TheCrew07]

Toussaint rounds out top three prep pitchers

Upside, athleticism, devastating curve have him right behind Aiken, Kolek

[TheCrew07]

Despite injuries, college hurlers in Draft still strong

NC State's Rodon, LSU's Nola stand out as Hoffman, Fedde have elbow surgeries

[brewcrewdue80]

BA's latest mock has Milwaukee selecting Tyler Beede who's stock is falling apparently due to inconsistency. Yeah just great another flop selection of a failing College arm....

Honestly, the extra game we won that cost us 3 spots in the draft is going to lead to the team missing out on the right guy because the right guy will be gone after the 10th selection. Watch us fail.

[brewcrewdue80]

And I decided to spend the time to watch the video of the Players ahead of the Sheffield in the mock:

11: Nick Gordon-Yes like what I see

10: Derek Fisher-No not thrilled

9: Luis Ortiz-Yes Looks like watching a RH version of Aiken 200IP guy

8: Tyler Beede- Not impressed and he's a college kid

7: Michael Gettys- No his swing is too upright

6: Jacob Gatewood-Yes quick looking swing/solid zone in it For a SS with Power potential as the article reads there's a lot that can go right with picking him

5: Trea Turner-No video

4: Tyler Kolek-Yes and Wow. 6'6" Sound motion and he really appeared to have no problem keeping the ball low in the zone. Please don't go to the Cubs!

3: Alex Jackson- Upper Body swing looks nice his lower body sway just seems a little off-balance. Fix some of that and yeah I like it. Don't need him and I won't cry if we don't get him

2: Jeff Hoffman- Looks good. Not as good as Kolek or Ortiz/Aiken. For whatever reason I see elbow/shoulder issues in his future in his motion and He's a college guy

1: Carlos Rodon- no video and obviously wont be there Milw so not really a need to put an opinion on him.

 

Cool stuff to see the videos and actually not just be going by what I read as I'm now down on Toussant. FWIW with the current mock suggestions and whom I liking hopefully means a good chance to see Gordon,Ortiz,Aiken as the pick at 12. And Gatewood but my guess is he's gone well before our pick.

 

Whoa scary I called that. Also impressed that not in the top 10 at the time Brady Aiken who I loved, is now in the top 3 draft discussion. I wanted to look back see what my video watching said.

for this post I'll just say I won't be upset if we got Ortiz or Gatewood.

 

Edit Add: Just wanted to also mention My post after this previous one listed the 21-30-something in ranking at that time and I listed these three names as hope for 2nd selection: Alex Verdugo(Gallardo comparison) Derek Hill(Speedy OF) and Sean-Reid-Foley who has since risen to top half of 1st rd it appears. Both Verdugo and Hill stand a decent chance of being there when we make the 2nd and 3rd picks. Those are my 3 picks I like then and I'm not going to change now: Ortiz,Verdugo, and Hill.

 

MLB's writeups:

Hill:Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 70 | Arm: 50 | Field: 65 | Overall: 50

Orsino Hill reached Triple-A as an outfielder and now scouts Northern California for the Dodgers. One of the best 2014 prospects in his area also happens to be his son.

Derek Hill is one of the fastest players and best defensive players in this year's high school class. He ran sub-6.4 60-yard-dashes on the showcase circuit this summer, and he glides around center field. He also has a solid arm, stronger than most at his position.

An Oregon recruit, Hill has offensive potential as well. With his wheels, bat speed, line-drive swing and mature approach, he should have no trouble hitting for average. He also displays some gap power, with the potential for perhaps more once he adds strength.

 

I don't understand how he's falling in to the 60s rankings? Seems like a sure-fire MLB OF just based on his speed/defensive ability. The bat would dictate if he is a Star or just a 4th OF.

 

Verdugo:Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

When the spring began, Verdugo was one of the few two-way prospects in the Draft class that may have had a split camp over whether he should hit or pitch. As the Draft drew closer, it became increasingly apparent that most teams saw his future on the mound.

As a pitcher, Verdugo projects as a No. 3 starter at the big league level. While not the biggest pitcher in the world, he does have a compact and efficient delivery. His three-quarters delivery gives him good angle and movement on his fastball, which averages 89-91 mph and has reached 94. He could add more velocity if he focuses on pitching full-time, and he also features a promising curveball and a changeup with some life.

The athleticism that made him a solid outfield prospect, and would help him be a potential two-way player at Arizona State, should aid him in his development as a pitcher, though the MVP winner for the National team at the Under Armour All-America Game at Wrigley Field last August will have to get past some makeup concerns to keep his Draft stock up.

 

Lefty! Likened him to Gallardo because he looks good with the bat. Sounds promising and my eye test liked him...Could just very well be a Gallardo Cloned pick ten years later! his 46th to what would be Verdugo's 41st.

 

 

Draft experts any takes on these two?

[SRB]

BA's latest mock has Milwaukee selecting Tyler Beede who's stock is falling apparently due to inconsistency. Yeah just great another flop selection of a failing College arm....

Honestly, the extra game we won that cost us 3 spots in the draft is going to lead to the team missing out on the right guy because the right guy will be gone after the 10th selection. Watch us fail.

 

I would much rather take a guy who has been a consensus first-round pick out of both high school and college and who is falling due to pre-draft inconsistency, than a guy who has risen dramatically due to pre-draft dominance. Seems like scouting directors should be basing this decision on talent and longterm track record more than a late hot streak.

[colbyjack]

I'll be on the WSSP On Deck pre-game show today talking about the draft at 2:20 pm central for those interested.

[paul253]

To me the one thing that scares me most about pitchers is a lack of control. The Brewers have had zero luck it seems getting hard throwing but wild pitchers to learn control. I think of guys like Rogers, Jeffress, Hellweg, even Pena. That's why I am scared of guys like Toussaint and Beede. If Beede had any sort of control, or if scouts thought he could improve his control, I'd imagine he'd be a top 5 pick. Toussaint I guess is a bit different because he doesn't just have that amazing fast he's got 2 other above average pitches. But again, with three good to great pitches he should be a top 5 pick but that control is scaring people away.

[narwhalattack]

To me the one thing that scares me most about pitchers is a lack of control. The Brewers have had zero luck it seems getting hard throwing but wild pitchers to learn control. I think of guys like Rogers, Jeffress, Hellweg, even Pena. That's why I am scared of guys like Toussaint and Beede. If Beede had any sort of control, or if scouts thought he could improve his control, I'd imagine he'd be a top 5 pick. Toussaint I guess is a bit different because he doesn't just have that amazing fast he's got 2 other above average pitches. But again, with three good to great pitches he should be a top 5 pick but that control is scaring people away.

 

Well at #12 you usually either get pitchers with great control but a lack of stuff, or you get pitchers with good stuff but iffy control.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm watching Luke Weaver pitch and no way do I want that guy selected on my team. It's not going to work out well for him maybe a #4/5 starter at best. I honestly don't get how you fail to see the future of College Pitchers when watching them pitch throughout college and when they are 21. What they have is what they have there's just not going to be a whole lot of improvement. Weaver is going to get crushed.

[paul253]

Well at #12 you usually either get pitchers with great control but a lack of stuff, or you get pitchers with good stuff but iffy control.

 

In this draft I don't think you have to settle for either or. If Grant Holmes is available I hope they take him. I wouldn't mind Chavis but that might be a reach.

[brewerprospectwatch]

Hi there, first time post to the group, but long time reader.

 

I am just wondering why you are so excited about Grant Holmes? I see that you mention him quite a few times and are hoping for the Brewers drafting him, or Chavis for that matter.

 

I am not really all that excited about either player. Holmes has good stuff but has really bad control and he doesn't seem like the sort of player the Brewers tend to rehabilitate into an impact major league pitcher, nor have success with. And then for Chavis I have no problem with the Brewers drafting him, except that there are probably 4 or 5 players who will be better, and available at the 12th pick.

 

If available, I would hope to see the Brewers draft (in order of preference):

 

Aaron Nola

Michael Conforto

Touki Toussaint

Tyler Beede

Kyle Schwarber

Sean Reid-Foley

 

Only the bottom two would be available probably because of all of the injuries, but with a draft so rich in pitching, and a farm system almost devoid of it I want to see them go with an arm, and with one who doesn't have such a divided opinion among scouts.

[splitterpfj]

BPW....welcome to Brewerfan!

 

I think any of the players you listed would be fine picks for the Brewers, as would any of a few more players - the team has options, for sure.

 

I like Holmes, but no more than any of the pitchers you listed.

 

One thing...I don't think the Brewers' system is "almost devoid" of pitching, I think they have more pitching depth down there than hitting at the moment, so I've decided to pull for a bat with that first pick.

 

It's not like the team has, "too much" of anything right now, so a pitcher in that spot is fine with me, I just think there are more bats who fit the number 12 range right now than arms. Aaron Nola will be picked ahead of Milwaukee, and I would bet either Toussaint or Beede will be too, maybe not both, but more than likely one of them.

 

Among hitters, the 12 spot is in range for probably Conforto or Brad Zimmer, but not both, Max Pentecost, Schwarber, Michael Chavis, Casey Gillaspie, and just for fun, let's throw a new name in there...check out Monte Harrison, outfielder, from Lee's Summit, Missouri.

[colbyjack]

brewerprospectwatch, I'm curious, where did you read that Grant Holmes has really bad control? That's actually one of his strengths. The biggest knock on him is that's he's a 6-2, 200+ pound prep RHP (and 6-2 is probably a generous height listing) with limited projection, but he's already pretty dang good.

 

Plus, you listed both Tyler Beede and Touki Toussaint among the pitchers you would draft, both of whom really struggle with their command even if their upsides are considerably higher.

 

And I agree with splitter, the organization's pitching is actually one area of "depth," if you can call it that. Impact bats are few and far between, and one could argue that none truly exist, unless you're really high on guys like Tyrone Taylor and Clint Coulter in the lower levels.

 

Monte Harrison is an extremely exciting athlete, and I'm glad you brought him up Todd. I doubt he goes as high as No. 12, but you never know.

 

Keith Law had his new mock draft out today and tossed out names such as Holmes, Pentecost, Reid-Foley, Beede and Derek Hill. All of those would be good fits for the pick, outside of Hill, who for me just doesn't do enough with the bat at this point in his career to warrant such a high pick.

 

Reid-Foley is a name that has been tossed around before, but never really gone into a whole lot of depth. He doesn't have the hugest upside, but he's been pitching extremely well every time he's taken the mound this year, and has been up to 98 even though he usually sits 90-94 with one of the better sliders in this year's draft class. He has a similar profile to guys like Holmes and even Luis Ortiz.

[splitterpfj]

Colby, I'll leave it to you to tell the folks about Harrison, but in a nutshell, he's a multi-sport guy - hence, a true athlete, with a football scholarship to Nebraska already in his back pocket.

[brewerprospectwatch]

Hello Colbyjack,

 

Baseball Americas draft preview mentions that Holmes has great stuff but bad control (paraphrasing).

 

As for Beede and Toussaint, that can be overlooked by projection and athleticism, tying back into Holmes body type.

[TheCrew07]

Hello Colbyjack,

 

Baseball Americas draft preview mentions that Holmes has great stuff but bad control (paraphrasing).

 

As for Beede and Toussaint, that can be overlooked by projection and athleticism, tying back into Holmes body type.

 

That's not exactly what was said...

 

...Holmes has some of the best present stuff in the class. He came out sitting 93-96 mph, touching 98 early in the season and then 91-94 in some later starts. His power curveball is one of the top breaking balls in the country, a plus pitch that flashes better. On the showcase circuit, Holmes was primarily a two-pitch pitcher with a seldom-used changeup. But the offering has become a legitimate above-average weapon that could become plus. The biggest knock against Holmes is his powerful, broad-shouldered and barrel-chested 6-foot, 216-pound body that offers limited physical projection. Scouts say his fastball can play true up in the zone when he fails to locate down, and he leaves too many high fastballs most games. His delivery with recoil and a long arm swing is unlikely to produce plus control. But he has present stuff and pitchability...

 

To me that reads like a bigger armed Yovani Gallardo at the same stage of their careers. The first round HS pitcher that has trouble throwing strikes is Toussaint because he's so inexperienced, but that also makes him so exciting as a prospect. I like Sean Reid-Foley as he's a bigger armed version of Odorizzi with good pitchability but averagish stuff, he's probably a #3 as well. As I said earlier I've set my bar at #2 type on draft day.

 

I had a post this afternoon that I must have hit preview instead of submit on about this topic but neither Nola or Beede excite me at all. Nola has control but lacks stuff and Beede has stuff but no control, both look like #3s to me. If I'm drafting a control project I'd rather go with a HS kid who's younger and has less mileage on his arm. I don't really see the point of drafting a 21 year old out of college and having to keep him in the minors for 3-4 full seasons like Jungmann and Bradley, he's not coming up until he's 24-25 years anyway.

 

I also posted earlier that I'm big on fastball velocity, stuff, and control, if a pitcher doesn't have those 3 things for their current level I'm moving on. That's why I'm so high on Freeland right now, he has everything I'm looking for including being a lefty. It's also why I zero'd in on Newcomb because his velocity comes so easy and he just keeps better with each season he's dedicated himself to baseball. Finally I initially targeted Aiken because he had the best command and stuff in the HS class with slightly projectable velocity. Yes I'm partial to lefties, partly because we haven't had any for years and partly because I'm lefty and naturally favor them.

 

I agree that I'm not a fan of the Brewers drafting control projects as they haven't had any success with those pitchers in the past, which is why I narrow my window to so few players.

[paul253]

I am just wondering why you are so excited about Grant Holmes? I see that you mention him quite a few times and are hoping for the Brewers drafting him, or Chavis for that matter.

In general I like HS pitchers with better than college guys. No real rhyme or reason to it I just feel that HS guys tend to have a bit more upside. They also have fewer pitches on their arms though in general their stuff isn't as refined. I like Holmes even though he ceiling probably isn't a high as Toussaint's because he seems to have that nice combo of stuff and control. Toussaint I read has incredible stuff but his control is pretty bad. I just think of a Jeremy Jeffress when I hear his name. Will I be disappointed if we pick him? Not at all but my expectations would probably be a little lower until he learns how to throw strikes. Same with Beede. I saw him pitch on tv a few weeks ago and was just not impressed. His pitch count was really high early on because he could not throw strikes and that seems to be a consistent problem with him.

 

While Holmes may be a bit of a safer pick than Toussaint I don't think you are being too cautious if you pick him. Also, when I see how guys like Bradley, Jungmann and Lopez are having much better results this year than last, while also noticing their walk rates are much better, I have to believe lower walk totals have at least something to do with the added success.

 

If it were just those three I'd prefer, in this order, 1) Holmes, 2) Tousaaint 3) Beede. But then again I am hardly a scout so my opinion should not be taken all that seriously here (that's not sarcasm).

 

As for Chavis I haven't really been calling for the Brewers to pick him. While it would be nice to get a power bat at a position of need I'm not sure if he'd be a reach at 12. Again, would I be upset if we pick him? Depends on who else is on the board. I would prefer him to a number of other guys but not if he is not a legit top 12 talent.

[Mass Haas]

Conway pitcher named Gatorade South Carolina Baseball Player of the Year

By Ian Guerin, Myrtle Beach (SC) Online

 

Grant Holmes is taking at least one more major high school award with him, wherever that may be.

 

The Conway senior pitcher was named the Gatorade South Carolina Baseball Player of the Year late Tuesday night, making him a finalist for the national award that will be announced next week.

 

“I think it’s very fitting for him. He’s put in so much work,” Tigers coach Anthony Carroll said. “It’s good to see him recognized on the state level.”

 

Holmes was last week named to the Class AAAA All-State team by the South Carolina Baseball Coaches Association. He was also offered a spot on the S.C. Select team – the sport’s version of the Shrine Bowl of the Carolinas – although he turned that down in order to further prepare his next move.

 

Carroll said Holmes was meeting with and pitching for the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday. Several national publications have considered Holmes a lock as a first-round pick in next week’s Major League Baseball Amateur Draft. If that comes to fruition, and Holmes signs a contract, he will be forgoing a full scholarship to the University of Florida, a commitment he made in November when he inked his National Letter of Intent with the Gators.

 

Even with all that going on – upward of 30-40 scouts attended every game he pitched this season – Holmes still produced.

 

He finished the year 4-1 with a 0.35 ERA. In 40 innings on the mound, he had 82 strikeouts, more than four times the amount of hits he gave up all season (17).

 

“Coming in, he did have a lot of hype,” Carroll said. “We knew it was going to be an eventful spring for us. It really was, even more than anyone imagined. But it wasn’t a big deal for him. He went out there and took care of business like he has since eighth grade.”

 

Conway's Grant Holmes pitches in the game with Carolina Forest on Thursday, March 20, 2014. Photo by Janet Blackmon Morgan

 

http://media.myrtlebeachonline.com/smedia/2014/03/20/22/06/Ln0Pm.AuSt.78.jpeg

[splitterpfj]

Thanks Mass, that's awesome.

 

I also got confirmation today - Milwaukee remains highly interested in Touki Toussaint.

[TooLiveBrew]

Great info & updates, guys

[brewcrewdue80]

If both Holmes and Toussaint are gone when the Brewers pick leaving the leftovers of College Pitchers not chosen Beede/Freeland/Finnegan/ and Newcombe. Let's say at least two of the four.

Does the team draft lower in the board then try to nab a HS kid with money saved at 41?

If we did draft Chavis is the consensus that he'll get the money to the 12th slot? Or maybe 250k less than slot? Leaving the potential to nab a HS pitcher at 41 that wants mid first round money but was still around in the late 20s and is considering College then? Luis Ortiz/Kodi Medeiros come to mind.

 

The thing about drafting Chavis, is if we do go after and sign Lara, Chavis removes himself as the 3b of the future in to 2b then?

I just wonder if the Crew can pull that off a Chavis/Ortiz 1/2 pick. Though by the just above posts, it sounds like the team is targeting Holmes/Touissaint.

 

There is one thing for sure that Toronto will be using that 11th pick on a College player since it's not protected. 100% positive its Nola or Beede whichever is still there. And you can more than likely take Aiken,Rodon,Kolek,Jackson,Gordon with the Toronto pick that's six for sure gone. The problem is Holmes/Touissaint are your next HS arms to choose from aside from all the College arms. I really feel they will be gone at our pick. This is all because of Hoffman+Feede's blown arms I think we miss the guy we want by 1selection.

 

If the Brewer's targets are gone off their board what kind of creativity do you see signing an underslot with their first pick then over slots on the next two?

[BallFour]

I'm kind of hoping for a high upside high school arm like Toussaint or Reid-Foley. I know our success with high school arms like these guys is basically zip, nada, zilch, but mine as well keep trying ha. This is all of course if Newcomb or Freeland aren't available. But I could very well see Holmes being the pick because of his Gallardo, Covey, and Nelson type stature.