2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[ewitkows]

You'd almost have to pick him if he's still there at 12? potential #1 pitcher @12

[narwhalattack]

You'd almost have to pick him if he's still there at 12? potential #1 pitcher @12

 

But... TJ surgery

[paul253]

If he goes back it hurts us as that is one more player off the board when our pick comes around. That late season push last year still annoys me a little bit. I am really pulling for Grant Holmes to be there at 12 but this would make it just a little less likely.

[reillymcshane]

You'd almost have to pick him if he's still there at 12? potential #1 pitcher @12

 

But... TJ surgery

Jeez, that's tough.

 

But if you look at it without emotion, it probably makes sense to take Hoffman if he's there at #12.

 

I think the idea of surgery just scares people. Yes, a segment of these guys don't rebound from the procedure, but the large majority (I think 80-90%) come back just fine.

 

At #12, I don't think there are any 'sure things'. A guy like Hoffman coming off TJ is probably a better bet than anyone that will be on the board. And the upside is greater than most guys.

 

Still, it's got to be hard for a GM or scouting director to get up in front of the cameras and announce that they've just spent their top pick on a guy who had TJ surgery a few weeks prior. That takes some stones to do that.

[splitterpfj]

The Brewers are interested in Touki Toussaint - the person who told me this would absolutely know. Unconfirmed by my source....Mr Toussaint's asking price is sky high.

 

Toussaint is a real wild card in this draft - this would be a gamble, for sure, the classic, "boom or bust" selection.

[SRB]

What happened with past top draft prospects who had TJ surgery right before the draft?

 

Interesting to put yourself in the Brewers position. On the one hand, that kind of risk seems very un-Melvin/un-Seid, but on the other hand Melvin must know that what the Brewers farm systems needs more than anything else is impact talent (as opposed to yet another "high-floor" college pitcher in the mid-first-round...)

[TheCrew07]

The Brewers are interested in Touki Toussaint - the person who told me this would absolutely know. Unconfirmed by my source....Mr Toussaint's asking price is sky high.

 

Toussaint is a real wild card in this draft - this would be a gamble, for sure, the classic, "boom or bust" selection.

 

He's just so wild yet and I don't have any confidence in the Brewers' ability to develop command. We've been down that road with Jeffress and Rogers already.

[SRB]

What happened with past top draft prospects who had TJ surgery right before the draft?

 

Interesting to put yourself in the Brewers position. On the one hand, that kind of risk seems very un-Melvin/un-Seid, but on the other hand Melvin must know that what the Brewers farm systems needs more than anything else is impact talent (as opposed to yet another "high-floor" college pitcher in the mid-first-round...)

 

To answer my own question, I guess Lucas Giolito was a similar situation and he only fell to #16 due to concerns about his elbow, and then had TJ right after signing. Slightly different situation, but who knows, maybe Hoffman will be in play at #12.

[paul253]

I think I'd take a gamble on Hoffman at 12. TJ is common nowadays and most pitchers come back just as good. The guy has #1 potential and even with the injury would probably still be on track to hit the majors before a HS arm would. My only issue would be that he'd still want top 5 money and that might limit who we take with our next few picks.

[ewitkows]

Would he though? If he doesn't sign he still won't be able to pitch before next years draft and his stock will be lower. So it will really be 2 years before he'd potentially be a top 5 pick again

[narwhalattack]

The Brewers are interested in Touki Toussaint - the person who told me this would absolutely know. Unconfirmed by my source....Mr Toussaint's asking price is sky high.

 

Toussaint is a real wild card in this draft - this would be a gamble, for sure, the classic, "boom or bust" selection.

 

The Brewers may be interested in Toussaint, but just HOW interested are they? They could just be kicking the tires, unless your source knows otherwise.

[brewmann04]

I am just not sure the Brewers can afford to take a guy with TJ surgery or a Boom or Bust Guy @12.

[SRB]

I am just not sure the Brewers can afford to take a guy with TJ surgery or a Boom or Bust Guy @12.

 

I'm not sure they can afford not to. Taking a boring pitcher whose ceiling is Jimmy Nelson is not going to help turn the farm around.

[splitterpfj]

Narwhalattack, the Brewers have done a lot more than kick the tires on Touissant, but I'd have to think there's still some internal debate on him....a big arm, but there are questions. He's been projected all over the place, I'll leave it to colbyjack to provide more detail on him.

 

I didn't post the number my guy was told Touissant wants, because I think it's crazy, and it could be complete nonsense, but if that part of the story is true, I hope the Brewers move on.

[colbyjack]

ewitkows brings up an excellent point about Hoffman. If he doesn't accept the fact that he's hurt and has to accept a lower signing bonus as a result, he'll have to wait 2 years to prove himself again given the timing of his injury. I feel bad for him, as he's a good kid that we at PG have followed very closely, but his leverage disappeared today, and not only for this year's draft. He needs to sign, get in a pro organization and rehab, otherwise he could potentially damage whatever draft value he had.

 

As for Toussaint, that's not surprising. Every team drafting from 5-15 should be on him. While he still has to improve his command he has a plus fastball, curveball and changeup, and it's all thrown so easily. For as good as the top HS pitchers are, including Kolek and Aiken, Toussaint's collective 3-pitch arsenal is probably better than both of them. He's still relatively new to pitching, and I wouldn't put too much stock into his asking price, that's simply called leverage. Yes, he has committed to play for Vanderbilt, but I've never got the sense that will play too big of a role in him turning down $2 million. I know of 3 people on my staff that would take him without thinking twice if they had a pick in the top 10.

 

If the Brewers do take Toussaint, the team, and we the fans, will have to be patient, but he could be really special. I too think of Jeremy Jeffress, but I've always contended that scouts, like NFL cornerbacks, need to have short memories and can't make their decisions because a similar player failed to live up to similar potential. If you do so, you're going to make yourself short-sighted and potentially miss out on special players.

 

What if the Brewers drafted Toussaint, Bukauskas (who as noted told teams he intended to go to college, but players have used that ploy before) and Hoffman with their first 3 picks and creatively found a way to sign all 3? That would be crazy, even if I don't think there's any chance the Brewers would be the team to make that happen.

 

And what's wrong with Jimmy Nelson? Boring shouldn't be confused with unproductive, as I personally value the depth he provides to the current big league Brewers.

[narwhalattack]

 

 

 

What if the Brewers drafted Toussaint, Bukauskas (who as noted told teams he intended to go to college, but players have used that ploy before) and Hoffman with their first 3 picks and creatively found a way to sign all 3? That would be crazy, even if I don't think there's any chance the Brewers would be the team to make that happen.

 

 

That would be a very interesting situation. Drafting Toussaint at 12, Hoffman at 41, and Bukauskas in the 2nd round. It seems unlikely that this would happen, but very interesting nonetheless.

 

Also, what are your thoughts on Jake Stinnett? I think he would be a nice pick in the 2nd round. Or maybe even a little earlier than that.

[SRB]

And what's wrong with Jimmy Nelson? Boring shouldn't be confused with unproductive, as I personally value the depth he provides to the current big league Brewers.

 

Wasn't meant as an insult toward Jimmy Nelson, who is obviously doing great (and was a second round pick), but if your #1 prospect is on the level of a Jimmy Nelson (borderline top-100), I think your farm system is still in trouble. I don't think a low-ceiling, high-floor sort of pick is adequate for the Brewers right now. Then again, one could argue that taking a gamble on a potential bust is not the right path either, since then the Brewers are left with nobody.

 

I'm glad to have Jimmy Nelson, I'm just not glad that he is the top prospect in the Brewers system right now. (Though Tyrone Taylor may be knocking.)

[TheCrew07]

What if the Brewers drafted Toussaint, Bukauskas (who as noted told teams he intended to go to college, but players have used that ploy before) and Hoffman with their first 3 picks and creatively found a way to sign all 3? That would be crazy, even if I don't think there's any chance the Brewers would be the team to make that happen.

 

That would be an interesting haul for sure.

[reillymcshane]

ewitkows brings up an excellent point about Hoffman. If he doesn't accept the fact that he's hurt and has to accept a lower signing bonus as a result, he'll have to wait 2 years to prove himself again given the timing of his injury. I feel bad for him, as he's a good kid that we at PG have followed very closely, but his leverage disappeared today, and not only for this year's draft. He needs to sign, get in a pro organization and rehab, otherwise he could potentially damage whatever draft value he had.

Colby, what's a realistic spot that someone pulls the trigger on Hoffman? We're talking a top 5 talent. Sure he's delayed a year and there's the risk of the TJ surgery - but that's a big haul to pass up.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't think Hoffman falls to 41, and I want no part of drafting a college pitcher with a bum elbow as high as #12 with the other prep/college arm talent available at the top of this draft. I hope some team picks Hoffman before Milwaukee's pick so they don't have the choice. Of all organizations, I think the Brewers would rank right near the bottom in terms of being able to effectively develop a pitcher that will need significant rehab before he ever pitches a professional inning.

 

The Brewers should absolutely swing for the fences in terms of high ceiling/boom or bust type talent this year, if only to get a player like that in their system for a change. I think there will be enough healthy players fitting that description at #12 for them to pick from.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't think Hoffman falls to 41, and I want no part of drafting a college pitcher with a bum elbow as high as #12 with the other prep/college arm talent available at the top of this draft. I hope some team picks Hoffman before Milwaukee's pick so they don't have the choice. Of all organizations, I think the Brewers would rank right near the bottom in terms of being able to effectively develop a pitcher that will need significant rehab before he ever pitches a professional inning.

 

The Brewers should absolutely swing for the fences in terms of high ceiling/boom or bust type talent this year, if only to get a player like that in their system for a change. I think there will be enough healthy players fitting that description at #12 for them to pick from.

[TheCrew07]

As for Toussaint, that's not surprising. Every team drafting from 5-15 should be on him. While he still has to improve his command he has a plus fastball, curveball and changeup, and it's all thrown so easily. For as good as the top HS pitchers are, including Kolek and Aiken, Toussaint's collective 3-pitch arsenal is probably better than both of them. He's still relatively new to pitching, and I wouldn't put too much stock into his asking price, that's simply called leverage. Yes, he has committed to play for Vanderbilt, but I've never got the sense that will play too big of a role in him turning down $2 million. I know of 3 people on my staff that would take him without thinking twice if they had a pick in the top 10.

 

If the Brewers do take Toussaint, the team, and we the fans, will have to be patient, but he could be really special. I too think of Jeremy Jeffress, but I've always contended that scouts, like NFL cornerbacks, need to have short memories and can't make their decisions because a similar player failed to live up to similar potential. If you do so, you're going to make yourself short-sighted and potentially miss out on special players.

 

I just wanted to address my thoughts on this to clarify that my problem isn't with Toussaint's talent or ceiling, rather the Brewers have never demonstrated the ability to get the most of out of a player like that. The players the Brewers have done well with are pitchers like Gallardo who already had relatively decent command and a plus pitch, I'm extremely wary of the Crew drafting a project such as Toussaint. There are 3-4 organizations that he would probably flourish in such as the Giants or Rangers, but that's why I place such a high premium on command and why I was originally very interested in the pre-velocity spike Aiken and am very into Freeland. If the Brewers were adept at developing pitching I'd be willing to cast a much wider net but that's why my focus is as narrow as it is.

 

There's always a chance they will turn the corner with developing pitching, and some player has to be the first "project" to become a successful big leaguer for this organization, but I just have a hard time pulling that trigger with the same people in charge of development that we've basically always had. It's not like Reid Nichols and company are leaders or visionaries on the cutting edge of talent development, we're talking about the people that mostly played Michael Brantley as a 1B/DH for 2 years to get his bat in the line-up instead of having some logical OF rotation.

[SRB]

I don't think Hoffman falls to 41, and I want no part of drafting a college pitcher with a bum elbow as high as #12 with the other prep/college arm talent available at the top of this draft. I hope some team picks Hoffman before Milwaukee's pick so they don't have the choice. Of all organizations, I think the Brewers would rank right near the bottom in terms of being able to effectively develop a pitcher that will need significant rehab before he ever pitches a professional inning.

 

The Brewers should absolutely swing for the fences in terms of high ceiling/boom or bust type talent this year, if only to get a player like that in their system for a change. I think there will be enough healthy players fitting that description at #12 for them to pick from.

 

Why is that? The Brewers seem pretty poor at developing pitchers in general, but if anything their one strength is the medical angle. There was a recent infographic regarding the "Tommy John epidemic" and the Brewers are the one team in MLB with 0 major league Tommy John surgeries over the last X years. (Obviously Hellweg was a recent minor league casualty, although he wasn't really developed by the Brewers). They've helped numerous pitchers return from debilitating injuries (e.g. Capuano, Rogers), so maybe I am over-generalizing a complex issue but I trust the Brewers to be able to develop a rehabilitation case like Hoffman. At least, as well as they develop any other pitcher (arguably not well).

[TheCrew07]

That's because the Brewers' homegrown pitchers who've had TJ surgery had it before they got to MLB like Peralta. We have a long history of TJ surgeries in the organization, most have just happened before the prospects were solidly on the radar of the majority of Brewer fans.

 

Like all things statistical the end result depends entirely on how the data set was initially framed.

 

As far players returning from debilitating injuries... not really. Rogers likely will never have a MLB career, he was just released by Seattle, and there is a much longer list of guys like Mike Jones and Chris Saenz who never pitched a big league inning post injury. Capuano's 2nd surgery came with Milwaukee, not his first.

 

I would actually suggest the opposite conclusion, that the Brewers push their players with injuries too hard to get back on the field, which actually makes the entire situation worse. Not only for the athlete himself, but for the organization as well. See Rickie Weeks, Matt Gamel, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Taylor Green, Alexandre Periard, and so on through the years. I still think they were very fortunate that Yovani Gallardo didn't hurt himself coming back from the ACL injury so quickly.

[SRB]

That's because the Brewers' homegrown pitchers who've had TJ surgery had it before they got to MLB like Peralta. We have a long history of TJ surgeries in the organization, most have just happened before the prospects were solidly on the radar of the majority of Brewer fans.

 

Like all things statistical the end result depends entirely on how the data set was initially framed.

 

I was just using MLB pitchers as an easier-to-track proxy, but here is some better data: Over the last three years, the Brewers have had six TJs (all minor leagues), which is the third-lowest total (the lowest is four TJ). The median over that span is 15.5 total and the average is 13.3. Clearly the Brewers are far above-average at preventing TJ injuries.

 

As far players returning from debilitating injuries... not really. Rogers likely will never have a MLB career, he was just released by Seattle, and there is a much longer list of guys like Mike Jones and Chris Saenz who never pitched a big league inning post injury. Capuano's 2nd surgery came with Milwaukee, not his first.

 

I would actually suggest the opposite conclusion, that the Brewers push their players with injuries too hard to get back on the field, which actually makes the entire situation worse. Not only for the athlete himself, but for the organization as well. See Rickie Weeks, Matt Gamel, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Taylor Green, Alexandre Periard, and so on through the years. I still think they were very fortunate that Yovani Gallardo didn't hurt himself coming back from the ACL injury so quickly.

 

I could not disagree more. The fact that Rogers came back and pitched in the major leagues (and was briefly a top prospect again) is a huge success story. Capuano is a huge rehabilitation success story too. I fail to see how any of the position players are relevant to the wholly separate issue of rehabilitating injured pitchers and preventing future injuries, which are the key concerns with Hoffman.

 

Maybe the broader concern is that whatever the Brewers do to keep pitchers healthy also stunts their upside as players. It seems that Atlanta is toward the top both with developing young pitchers and then having those pitchers get injured. Not sure where the right trade off lies.