2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[splitterpfj]

Here's where I'm at right now. Mock Draft

 

Mac Marshall and Michael Chavis just missed the first round for me, I also don't have Gillaspie or Bukauskus in there. I think Bukauskus is the most interesting of the four, for the reason Patrick gave. When is the last time you saw a kid add 10 MPH to his fastball in one season? I think he'll probably go in the first round, but I honestly don't know where to put him right now.

 

This is a unique situation, those of you who want a safe pitcher, and those of you who want an upside pitcher, may all wind up happy. With so many pitchers pushing higher up the board, the Brewers may very well end up with a safer pick than the stereotypical upside guy, while also getting more raw talent than the typical safe pick.

 

Right now, I absolutely do not see the Brewers taking a high school bat in round one. I suppose a college bat is at least possible, but matching the scouting reports I'm seeing with the spot the Brewers pick in, at number 12, I suspect the Crew will be picking from a short list of pitchers when their turn comes up.

[LouisEly]

Colby, what's the word on Luke Weaver of Florida State this year? His K's are down a bit this year, but last year I heard he was touching 97 and working regularly at 93-94. Definitely has room to add strength at 6'2", 170.

[colbyjack]

LouisEly, I touched on Weaver just two posts above. His velocity hasn't been the same, or as consistent, this spring. And as you noted, you would think he has room to grow into his frame, but he hasn't yet. He's been roughly the same size since high school.

 

Here's a quote from his recent PG Draft Focus report:

 

"While the results have been Weaver-esque this spring nonetheless, the reports from scouts has been that his velocity has been somewhat down this spring. Instead of the 93-96 mph we saw in his stint with Team USA, he’s been closer to 90-92 mph for most of 2014. He has a 2.83 ERA through his first eight starts, but it’s also worth noting that his strikeout rate is down. He has still struck out 46 in 54 innings of work, but compared to what he showed last spring, it is obviously a little diminished."

 

I would be a little surprised to see him go as high as No. 12 given that report, but he could very well finish strong and change that.

 

splitter, I think Chavis and Gillaspie are going to go in the teens. Monte Harrison is another guy who could rise into the 20-30 range partially due to his talents and mostly due to the lack of impact bats.

[nate82]

Colby what about Braxton Davidson he looks like a player the Brewers would be in on or at least Jack Z as he looks like a player Jack Z would be in on. Will he be around when the Brewers pick with their competitive balance pick or will he be gone before that?

 

I love his power and I believe his potential is that of Prince.

[colbyjack]

Nate, I haven't heard much on Braxton Davidson this spring. He's still considered a candidate to go in the latter third of the first round to early second, so yes, the Brewers could have a shot at him with that comp pick. He offers a big-time bat, so I too would be happy if he were added.

[splitterpfj]

Jonathan Mayo's latest draft prospect rankings...

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=draft

[TheCrew07]

Mayo and Callis put together their first 10 picks.

 

Experts take early stab at Top 10 Draft picks

[TheCrew07]

I had missed this, I've never held Mayo in high regard but I'm huge Callis fan, regardless I don't check Prospect Watch as much as I probably should.

 

MLB Prospect Watch 2014 Draft top 100

[colbyjack]

For those interested, the PG draft team conducted a mock draft through the first 41 picks. I had the Brewers, among a few other teams, and selected Evansville LHP Kyle Freeland and Virginia RHP Nick Howard with the team's first 2 picks (Insider level):

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9785

 

The exercise was another reminder of how deep this draft is in pitching, as there are a bunch of good arms, some surprisingly, still on the board (including everyone's favorite Luis Ortiz, whose injury situation still hasn't been clearly defined).

[TheCrew07]

You like Howard that much Colby? Obviously you think he's a SP long-term if you're taking him at 41?

[splitterpfj]

This is my updated mock draft: Mock Draft 3.0

 

I say there's no way the Brewers take a high school bat where they are, it's not how things line up this year. Nick Gordon is the only HS bat I could see fitting where the Brewers pick, but it looks as though he'll be picked ahead of the Brewers' spot.

 

A college bat is possible, I have no idea if the team likes Trea Turner enough to take him, or guys like Conforto, Schwarber and Pentecost. It could happen, but with the pitching talent available this year, I'd bet against it.

 

A high school arm - maybe, I guess it depends on who goes in the first 11 spots.

 

I would bet big on a college arm this year, that really looks like the most likely position on top of the draft board when the Brewers' first pick comes up. I think Kyle Freeland may have pitched his way ahead of the Brewers' pick, so I'll say the team picks from Finnegan, Newcomb, and Weaver.

 

If it's not a reach, there's logic behind taking a bat first this year, because there are so many top pitchers this time. If there's a hitter the team thinks is worth their first pick, it looks like they could grab a pitcher with their Competitive Balance pick.

 

I'll bet on the college arm in round one at this point.

[colbyjack]

Yes, I really like Howard and think Virginia is hurting his draft value by having serve the closer's role. He could be a top 10-20 overall pick if he was starting. He was 93-98 last weekend, and most believe he could sit in the 92-93 range with his nasty slider and solid to plus change in a starting role. Plus, as I noted in my notes, he has a low mileage arm and could rack up about as many innings as the team wanted to between the time he signed and the end of the summer, or even fall instrux/Arizona Fall League.

 

splitter, one are I disagree with you is saying there's no way the Brewers take a high school bat. One hitter that has continued to rise up the charts, and could be drafted even higher than expect due to the lack of bats is Michael Chavis. I agree that Nick Gordon won't be there, and considering Alex Jackson is one of 7 players the Astros are still considering at No. 1, I would say he won't be either.

[splitterpfj]

Hi Patrick-

 

I'm sure you're right on Alex Jackson, he's projected as a top 5 pick anywhere you look, I have him at 5.

 

I've moved Chavis from the fringe of the first round, to solidly in the first round - do you think the Brewers would actually take him at 12?

 

My personal favorite bat, among those that should be available for Milwaukee, is Max Pentecost. The team has Lucroy in Milwaukee, and Coulter in the system, so they may look past a catcher in round one this year, but I like that kid.

[TheCrew07]

Howard could definitely be interesting, I hadn't even considered him, I was leaning one of the HS arms at 41 hoping specifically for Griffin or Ortiz. It is disappointing that Ortiz' camp won't clarify the injury, no one wants to sign a guy only to discover a medical issue and have to void the initial contract like the Scarpetta situation.

 

I hope if Trea Turner is there at 12 they pass, he's far and away my least favorite of the 1st round bats, for some reason I just don't think he'll hit enough. I have nothing to back that up other than my gut feeling... I feel similarly about inefficient college pitchers like Beede who barely make it through 6, I'd rather some team in front of Milwaukee grabs them so the Brewers don't make a mistake. I'm not a big Finnegan guy either, he looks like a 3 to me, though I admit there might be more than that in him since he learned a plus slider in one summer, maybe no one has really shown him how to pitch.

 

I would be absolutely thrilled with Freeland or Newcomb as I mentioned before.

[colbyjack]

"I'm sure you're right on Alex Jackson, he's projected as a top 5 pick anywhere you look, I have him at 5."

 

While I agree with you, I always warn people not to take too much stock into mock drafts, and that applies to all sports. I'm sure if you looked at mock drafts last year Sean Manaea didn't fall into the 30s, much less past the top 10-15 picks.

 

"I've moved Chavis from the fringe of the first round, to solidly in the first round - do you think the Brewers would actually take him at 12?"

 

I'm not saying they should or shouldn't take Chavis, because I do really like his chances and think he could move quickly for a high school bat, but I do think the Brewers have their focus on an arm. That said, if they're going to take a bat I would be all for Chavis, Zimmer if he somehow fell or Kyle Schwarber. Chavis also receives high marks for his character, his tools pass the eye test and he has a knack for stepping up in big game situations. Todd Gold actually had the Mets taking Chavis two picks before the Brewers' first-round pick in our mock draft earlier this week.

 

I agree that Pentecost is a very good hitter, and is proving this spring that his success on the Cape last summer was no fluke. We debated that topic several pages ago in this same thread. I think Lucroy is a pretty sound overall comparison for Pentecost too. He's athletic enough to handle a move to 3B if it came to that.

 

TheCrew07, I agree with you on Turner, there just seems to be something missing with him. However, he also has all of the tools to make a lot of teams look bad for passing on him too. Prior to last summer I thought he was a slap-and-dash type hitter that would probably have to move to the OF. He proved me wrong when I had the chance to see him in person, showing advanced defensive tools and a strong arm from SS and the ability to turn on 90+ mph fastballs from the Team Cuban hurlers he was facing.

[splitterpfj]

True, Patrick, mock drafts are basically silly, but they're fun too. Every year, there's a million NFL Mocks, and once you get a few picks in, someone gets picked who throws the whole thing off, and your mock winds up in the same recycle bin that once held your NCAA Bracket.

 

On Alex Jackson, whether or not he goes at number 5, nothing I've seen or read would make me think he'll last until Milwaukee picks.

 

On Chavis, he's another kid who has risen a bunch, for sure, I just wondered if you thought he had a realistic chance of going as high as the Brewers' pick, at number 12.

[James Zumstein]

In Mayo's Top 50, he has Garrett Fulenchek at #43. That's near where we would be picking in the Comp A Round. Does anyone know much about him, besides what Mayo had in his write up? He says he could end up a frontline starter, if he continues to fill out his frame. Could be a potential steal that late, similar to Williams last year.

[SRB]

College pitchers are boring. (Beyond top-top picks like Strasburg). The Brewers have not had a successful first-round college pitcher since the 1999 draft...

 

Please take a high-upside high school player!!!

[colbyjack]

Todd, for the record I only brought up mock drafts since I've noticed people over the years say things along the lines of "these mocks drafts have player A falling to the Brewers spot, so there's a good chance he's there." I wasn't trying to suggest you were one of those people. Mock drafts are fun like you noted, but they are not to be taken seriously for anything more than 100% entertainment value.

 

To answer your question about Chavis, yes, I really like him, and yes I would take him as high as No. 12 overall. I think I have been the loudest among those (I may be the only one) that think the Brewers should strongly consider taking a bat with their first pick, because it may be their only good chance to get a decent one in this year's draft. They'll still have a great opportunity to land quality arms with their next two picks, and possibly even further, given the depth of pitching this year.

 

Chavis actually is the one player I think could be drafted a lot higher than expected. I could really see one of the teams with multiple, early picks taking Chavis, signing him quickly to a friendly deal, and then picking up someone with their next picks that may have fallen. Somewhat similar to what the Royals did with Hunter Dozier and Sean Manaea last year.

 

Garrett Fulenchek is another good pick that will be considered for one of the team's early picks. Very good frame, improving FB velo and one of the best sliders in this year's draft. I watched his outing first hand at our big Jupiter tournament last October when he made a significant jump up our rankings. He peaked at 94 and sat right around 90 the rest of the game showing good command of a 3-pitch repertoire, and I've heard he's been even better, more consistently this spring.

[Eye Black]

I think Weaver is a solid fit, I personally am a little worried by his pretty significant drop in Ks this year combined with the reports I've heard that his velocity has not been consistent and typically falls off noticeably after the first 3-4 innings. He's not the biggest guy in the world, not that it's the reason that's happening, but the Brewers have stated, and proven, to show they like the bigger, more projectable bodies in the pitchers they take in the top 1-2 rounds in recent years.

 

colbyjack, any update on Weaver's velocity this Spring? I know his FB was sitting high-80's to low-90's earlier in the Spring, but haven't heard more recent updates. It seems like both Weaver and Brandon Finnegan have an above average likelihood of becoming relievers at the professional level. Maybe that includes some bias against their size showing through, but I would be somewhat concerned if the Brewers took either one with their first selection.

[colbyjack]

PG's college expert, Kendall Rogers, was at the FSU/Virginia series last weekend and reported that Weaver was 88-91 touching 92 a few times. I don't think Weaver becomes a reliever, but there's a good chance that Finnegan does. I agree in your assessment in that I would prefer other players to these two with the team's first rounder, although I'm not sure anyone considers Weaver a candidate to go that high anymore. Finnegan's velo has been down recently as well, 90-91 last weekend, as there may be some fatigue going on at this point in the season.

[TheCrew07]

Colby might have sold me on Chavis, especially if he could stick at 3B, I wouldn't want him at #12, but if he was still there at #41... In PG's mock he went at #10, that seems high but there just aren't many "safe" upside picks out of the hitting crop, but I could see some team falling in love with him and making him a top 10 pick, it seems to happen every year.

 

Draft Focus: Michael Chavis

 

He's another guy I hadn't given much consideration to until Colby's original post in this thread so I went and did my due diligence. I'm not big on drafting for need it's just that 3 HS bats I'm most intrigued by happen to play Brewer positions of need.

 

I also like Ti'quan Forbes who projects as a SS/3B/2B (depending on how he matures physically, he doesn't have much power or a cannon arm right now), and yes I readily admit I'm into toolsy athletes, I even want athletic pitchers... as much as I liked Ben Sheets he didn't fit all that well in the NL.

 

Here's the PG Draft Focus: Ti'Quan Forbes article.

 

Last but not least I like Jack Flaherty, a southern California kid. He's another tall HS SS, I loved the Corey Seager comparison when I read his draft article as I've been been a Seager fan for a long time. Great contact skills, easy swing, good athlete, and he ran a 6.37 60.

 

Draft Focus: Jack Flaherty

 

I kind of like the idea of going pitcher at #12 and hitter at #41. I'd be fine with 2 pitchers as well but if it went 2 hitters I might have to drive down and torch the offices at Miller Park.

[Eye Black]

Kiley McDaniel posted his updated Draft Rankings: Overall Top 116.

 

One added feature of his list is it includes the current age of players, which can vary as much as a year or more among HS seniors, for example Brady Aiken (17.8 years old) vs. guys such as Sean Reid-Foley (18.8), Luis Ortiz (18.7), and Foster Griffin (19.0).

[narwhalattack]

So according to Perfect Game, Jeff Hoffman's out for the year for Tommy John surgery. Should the Brewers take a chance on him with one or the later picks, or is it inevitable that he's going back to ECU?

[TheCrew07]

So according to Perfect Game, Jeff Hoffman's out for the year for Tommy John surgery. Should the Brewers take a chance on him with one or the later picks, or is it inevitable that he's going back to ECU?

 

Wow great scoop PG, I just refreshed BA's site after finishing the Bukauskas article and they have nothing yet.

 

I would think that he's absolutely going back, but depending on his recovery timeline he might not be ready to pitch for ECU next year either. A team would have to be extremely confident that he'd fully recover from TJ surgery to draft him hurt. I know we kind of treat the surgery like a full recovery is a given, but there is still a small chance that the pitcher will never the same as he was.

 

I could see a team towards the bottom of the first round taking a chance.

 

edit. Apparently it's not affecting his draft status all that much:

The surgery is scheduled for next week with Dr. Andrews. Early indications show that Hoffman is still being considered by teams (who already have knowledge of the situation) in first 5-10 picks.