2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[brewcrewdue80]

http://mlbdraftcountdown.wordpress.com/2014/03/27/2014-mlb-mock-draft-2-0/

 

Another mock but if you click the player's names theres a scouting profile with grades.

 

Tell me how any of the Batting prospects get picked ahead of the pitchers if their Hit for Avg grade is 45 with future 50-55? Meaning Avg/slightly above avg. Meanwhile Pitcher's grades are in the 60s with future 65/70s grades?

 

Yeah those batters are fast/look to have great defensive skills, but Batting avg issues? Vs. Pitchers that have above avg grade stuff today? with Growth? I said before when I watched video of the batter prospects, none of them really caught my eye with their swings. It's a must to take a Pitcher in this draft. And I'll still stick with Ortiz as my fingers crossed guy. His name jumps in these mocks from top 10 to falls in the 20range. I really hope he's there when we pick and we select him.

[Eye Black]

To the point TheCrew07 made earlier in the tread, the NC State coaches are just abusing Rodon at this point. I realize they have strong incentive to make the NCAA tournament, but it appears they are risking Rodon's future in the process. I am sure Rodon is a competitor and doesn't shy away from the extra work, but someone has to be looking out for his long-term interests.

 

From Keith Law:

 

Those of you who follow me on Twitter saw me voice my displeasure over NC State's usage of left-hander Carlos Rodon, the best college player in this year's draft class, on Friday night. Rodon, who has pitched with a 50- or 55-rated fastball all year, was going on short rest on Friday, but showed up (paradoxically) with more velocity, sitting at 92-94 mph and touching 96.

 

NC State then decided to push Rodon to 134 pitches, sending him back out to start his final inning after he'd already thrown 118 pitches, an acceptable, if upper-bound, number for a 21-year-old pitcher. This was a clear example of a coaching staff putting their own interests over those of a pitcher, a perfect example of moral hazard at work in amateur baseball, one that calls for regulation by the NCAA.

 

The Wolfpack, despite having two of the best college players in the country this year, are 5-11 in the ACC so far (19-14 overall) and in danger of missing the NCAA tournament, a result that would be devastating given their talent level. The potential cost of missing the tournament is so high that the coaching staff has the incentive to try to win at all costs, including asking players to do things that may not be in their own best interests, such as throwing 134 pitches in one outing. Only one MLB pitcher did that in all of 2013: Tim Lincecum, in his July 13 no-hitter. (In fact, since the start of the 2010 season, only four MLB pitchers have thrown 134 or more pitches. Three were no-hitters, one was Brandon Morrow's 17-strikeout one-hitter in 2010, and all four spread those pitches over nine innings rather than Rodon's 7 2/3 innings.)

[splitterpfj]

Eye Black, this stuff goes on WAY too often, and not just at the college level, there are plenty of guilty high school coaches too.

 

I wish I'd saved the email I got once from Patrick Ahearn, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Ahearne, Pat has taught pitching all over the world. US, Europe, Asia, Australia, you name it...this issue drives him nuts.

 

In the Tyler Badamo thread, I mentioned how Tyler struck out 17 guys on Friday night, when I heard that, I cringed, fearing 130-140 pitches....he threw 110.

 

I do think this will have to be mandated, human nature creeps in, and you get coaches and players going for the win.

[And That]

http://mlbdraftcountdown.wordpress.com/2014/03/27/2014-mlb-mock-draft-2-0/

I like Grant Holmes. He sort of reminds me of Jake Odorizzi - relatively high floor for a high schooler with a good fastball, plus a good/solid breaking ball and a promising changeup.

[TheCrew07]

I got caught up on all my draft reading on Saturday, typed up a nice post about who I would select and why, but lost it when my browser accidentally got closed. I should really type in something other than the browser when I consistently have so many tabs open, it gets too messy.

 

At any rate when looking at where the draft prospects are at about the halfway point of the college season (I know HS in the N and NE are just getting going), I'm still not feeling it from the hitters at all, at least in the first round. There are plenty of HS kids with upside and some of the all bat kids are hitting well, but in general this prep hitting class is pretty weak. The college hitting class isn't a strength either, there are some guys I like, such as Schwarber, who are performing well at the plate, but to me the top of this draft is all about pitching.

 

I just don't see taking one of the hitters at 12, not with the arms that will potentially still be on the board. I have issues with Zimmer, Turner, Gatewood, and Conforto who all could be available depending on how teams line up there boards. I still like Schwarber as a steady/reliable bat, but at 12 that seems like a bit of reach. Certainly getting any MLB production from a pick is better than getting none but he's more of a high floor guy and I just can't bring myself to get on board with him right now.

 

Here are the pitchers who could possibly be in the mix for #12. All of the data here is taken from PG and BA articles about the players and a combination of their rankings. There are players discussed in this thread who I wont touch on, I tried to limit myself to the top 25 players as of current rankings. When looking at pitchers for the 1st round I'm looking for the following and in this order: 1) Velocity, 2) Command, 3) Plus Secondary, 4) Pitchability.

 

Kyle Freeland-LHP-Evansville

FB generally sits 91-93, he throws both a 2 and 4 seam FB, both pitches have good break. His secondary offerings are a plus slider, an above average curve, and a below average but improving change. His command is excellent, he's throwing 71.8% of his pitches for strikes, and he threw 80% of his secondary pitches for strikes in his latest outing. He's 6' 4" 190lbs and also a good athlete.

 

Brandon Finnegan-LHP-TCU

FB is 90-94 topping out at 96. His best secondary pitch is a slider which he just learned from Rodon over the summer and is already flashing plus, he also throws a change which has the chance to be average. He is 5' 11" 184 lbs but has tried to make up for his lack of size by working hard in the weight room and on his conditioning, reports are that he's a good athlete.

 

Touki Toussaint-RHP-HS

FB sits low 90s and tops out at 97. His hammer curve in the mid 70s is probably his best pitch and is a plus offering. His control is pretty suspect, he has a high BB rate even for HS. He didn't start playing baseball until his early teens so he's a natural given the level of success he's enjoyed thus far. Touki was originally a soccer player, he's athletic, and 6-2 195lbs.

 

Erick Fedde-RHP-UNLV

FB sits 91-94 touching 96. He throws a slider which flashes plus and has a below average developing change. He's another multi-sport good athlete at 6' 4" and 180lbs and a 3/4 arm slot guy.

 

Grant Holmes-RHP-HS

FB has been 91-94 this spring topping out at 97-98. His "breaking ball" is something he calls a slider, evaluators call it curve, lets call it a slurve, but it has plus potential. He also has a change that looks to be above average but he hasn't thrown much. At 6' 2" 190lbs he's also a decent hitter.

 

Sean Newcomb-LHP-Hartford

FB 90-95 this spring, topping out at 96 last summer. His curve is improving and looks to be average right now, his change flashes above average. Newcomb did really start logging innings until his junior year of HS and only 1 team sent him a draft questionnaire. He's made tremendous strides each year in college, he's more like a HS pitcher than college with the changes in his game from year to year. His arm action is very easy and effortless, he's another multi-sport athlete and measures in at 6' 5" 240 lbs.

 

Sean Reid-Foley-RHP-HS

FB 91-93 topping out at 95. He's notable because of how he moves the FB around. His best secondary pitch is a slider which flashes plus, he also throws a change but uses it so little I couldn't find a grade on it. He's 6' 3" 210 lbs.

 

Luis Ortiz-RHP-HS

FB 92-94 topping out at 97 depending on reports. His slider is already a plus big league pitch. He also has a developing change and curve. He was apparently pudgy and then lost 40 lbs and transformed himself, he drew high marks for his command but for some reason is slipping down BA's draft board (16 to 40). He was 6' 3" 205 lbs coming into the season.

 

If I had my druthers I'd pick Kyle Freeman right now, he's a lefty, plus FB, a plus secondary offering, and impeccable command, but I don't think he's going to be there.

 

I'm not looking to hit a HR, I want a reliable and efficient pitcher with quality stuff, basically I have the bar set at someone like a Matt Garza at his best. A pitcher who can average 6.5+ innings per start and put up an ERA around 3.5 or better, that's the target.

 

As such I'd take Grant Holmes or Sean Newcomb right now. Holmes throws strikes and already has a plus pitch as a HS pitcher, he's not the profile body wise that the Brewers normally target, but he's a good 2 way player who can handle the bat as well. He competes and adjusts to his stuff on the mound already. For some reason I can't put my finger on I want to compare him to Gallardo, though they weren't similar pitchers at the same point, but when I watch his video and read about him, that's the comparison which keeps coming into my head.

 

Newcomb doesn't have projectability left from a velocity standpoint, but his secondary stuff is improving tremendously year to year as he learns more about his craft. I'm comfortable projecting him to have at least 3 above average MLB pitches. With his easy arm action, low mileage through his youth, left handedness, and constant improvement he's a player with tremendous upside. He fits the Brewer's body profile to a "T", and though he's usually the type of "breakout" player I would avoid I just can't help myself.

 

I think Newcomb is a slight reach at #12, but he's got as much upside as any pitcher who would still be left on the board. Holmes would be the "safer" pick because everyone has thought highly of him for a long time. There are any number of pitchers the Brewers might higher on such as Ortiz (the Brewers do really well in CA), maybe they like Foster Griffen more than the other HS pitchers after Aiken and Kolek. My perspective rarely aligns with what the Brewers see on the pitching front so I find it very difficult to project who they will take, but those are the 2 players I'd like as of today.

[SRB]

Touki Toussaint passes the cool-name test. Hope the Brewers front office will finally realize that drafting pitchers with boring names in a recipe for failure (Eric Arnett, Taylor Jungmann, Jed Bradley, etc.)

[brewcrewdue80]

The Crew:

Luis Ortiz-RHP-HS

FB 92-94 topping out at 97 depending on reports. His slider is already a plus big league pitch. He also has a developing change and curve. He was apparently pudgy and then lost 40 lbs and transformed himself, he drew high marks for his command but for some reason is slipping down BA's draft board (16 to 40). He was 6' 3" 205 lbs coming into the season.

 

 

I think I found out why

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140410&content_id=71632790&notebook_id=71632642&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-change-at-the-top-as-pitchers-dominate/

Last paragraph before rankings:

As usual, the first round has some injury wild cards, such as Sanger (Calif.) High righthander Luis Ortiz, who had missed a couple of starts with a hush-hush injury but was expected back in mid-April; and Virginia outfielder Derek Fisher, who was out with a hamate injury in his right hand. Other injured prospects who have volatile draft stock include Georgia prep righty Dylan Cease and Florida prep Cobi Johnson.

 

 

That's scary to me as in, he's going to slip past us and right on to the Cardinals come draft day laughing all the way to another Golden Draftee.

One can guess though if he's looking healthy, he jumps back up the draft board. And if his injury appears more serious, he falls even further(right to our 2nd pick?) Dreaming

[paul253]

I think Holmes is a guy that a lot of us want right now. If we walk away with him or Ortiz I'll be happy.

[TheCrew07]

Funny I missed that blurb on Ortiz and I've actually read the BA article 3 different times now, I skimmed right over the last paragraph each time. I actually looked all over PG and BA for information on why his stock had fallen slightly, sometimes I'm a putz.

 

I see And That beat me to the Holmes pick as well, I actually started my post early this morning but work interrupted. I didn't mean to steal his thunder... or did I?

[splitterpfj]

I think Grant Holmes would be an excellent pick, but I also think he may be gone before Milwaukee's selection. I agree with those who don't see a bat fitting where the Brewers pick, it just looks like the highest rated players on the board when they're up will be pitchers this year.

 

Toussaint has been projected all over the place, and he sounds like the ultimate risk/reward pick, for those of you who want an "upside guy."

[TheCrew07]

What about going over the signing pool for three players? This might actually be the draft to do this in.

 

Sorry nate82 I missed this earlier. If you could conceivably get 3 power arms in the top 4 rounds or something along those lines I'd definitely do it.

 

Just throwing names out there as a for instance... this is highly unlikely but just using names of players people know falling to discuss the topic.

 

Say you take Grant Holmes in the 1st, Luis Ortiz in the 2nd, Foster Griffin in the 3rd, and Bryce Montes in the 4th.

 

Holmes would sign for slot I would think as a HS kid, Ortiz is going think he's worth 1st round money, Griffen probably does as well but will settle on 2nd, and Montes knows with good health he's a 1st round pick so he wants 1st round money as well.

 

If you could add 4 arms, all of whom comfortably project as at least 2s, I would absolutely say it is worth it to lose a 1st round pick and give the young men what they want even if you only hit on half those guys. It would take some extreme star alignment for something like to that happen. If we were in the top 5 picks it would be much more doable... at #12 that's pretty tough, someone ahead of us is always going to nab falling players first.

 

I'm certainly not opposed to the idea but you'd need a couple of players like Montes with injury concerns to have them slip enough to make it work. In the 4th you'd probably need someone with a ton of projection velocity and stuff wise coming off an injury. I could see us getting an injury steal here or there, but to be able to go over slot for 3 legitimate players would be one of the greatest draft coups in history.

[paul253]

The Brewers need to draft high upside guys but they need to draft high upside guys past the first round. I think they did good with Williams and Neuhaus last year but after that their draft was a joke. One other HS pitcher and a ton of low ceiling college pitchers. Denson was a good later round selection but they need to draft high upside with more than 3 or 4 picks.

[Mass Haas]

I'm not a pre-draft buff, so I'm not aware of the overall draft status of this kid, but great to see the Brewers are showing big interest. The young man is a Louisville recruit.

 

***

 

High School Baseball: McKay fans 20 ... again

By Mike White / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

 

Brendan McKay's impressive scoreless streak goes on, and his almost-surreal statistics continue to mount.

 

McKay, a senior left-handed pitcher at Blackhawk High School, shut out Central Valley, 8-0, Wednesday to stretch his scoreless streak to 44 innings, dating to a season ago.

 

As impressive as that is, there's more: McKay struck out 20 batters. That meant only one out was not a strikeout. It was the second time this year he has struck out 20. No wonder people are calling him McKayKK.

 

McKay gave up four hits and walked two against Central Valley and threw 107 pitches.

 

"Since I've been coaching, I've never seen anything like this," Blackhawk coach Bob Amalia said.

 

McKay is 25-1 for his career, and his ERA since his freshman year is 0.47. But his statistics this year are jaw-dropping. He is 3-0, has pitched 20 innings and struck out 49. He has allowed only five hits. Major league scouts have been at every game he has pitched this year.

 

"The scouting supervisor from the Milwaukee Brewers was here," Amalia said after the Central Valley victory. "That means something."

 

According to the National Federation of State High School Associations record book, McKay needs eight more shutout innings to move into the top 10 all time. But he is taking everything in stride.

 

"I'm not thinking about the streak," McKay said. "I think there is more pressure to win because we want to chase WPIAL and state championships. ... Sure, I'd like to keep the streak going, but the team success always comes first."

[TheCrew07]

Brendan McKay via Perfect Game.

 

Ht/Wt - 6-2, 205 lbs.

Bats/Throws - L/L

HS - Blackhawk | Graduates in 2014

Hometown - Darlington, PA

 

Results from 2013 PG WWBA World Championship, Oct 24, 2013 - Oct 28, 2013 DBacks Team BC 25

 

FB - 89

Range

84-89

 

CB-75

CH-78

[splitterpfj]

My Magic 8 Ball says....

 

Absolutely gone before the Brewers pick... Brady Aiken, Tyler Beede, Jeff Hoffman, Alex Jackson, Tyler Kolek, Carlos Rodon

 

Probably gone before the Brewers pick...Nick Gordon, Grant Holmes, Aaron Nola, Bradley Zimmer

 

Possibly gone before the Brewers pick...Jacob Gatewood, Sean Newcomb, Luis Ortiz, Trea Turner, Luke Weaver

 

In my first mock draft, I had the Brewers taking Nola, but I think he's moved into the top ten picks.

 

Most likely Brewers picks -

 

High School Arm - Luis Ortiz (if healthy)

High School Bat - Jacob Gatewood

College Arm - Luke Weaver

College Bat - Trea Turner

 

I'll say the Brewers won't be completely sold on either Gatewood or Turner, and if there's any question at all about Ortiz, they'll pass.

 

Today, I'll say the most likely pick for the Brewers is, Luke Weaver, RHP, Florida State.

[narwhalattack]

An interesting option would be Jacob Bukauskas(sp?). He has a mid-90s fastball that reportedly touched 100. A bit young for his age and a bit undersized at 6'1, but the arm strength is tough to ignore.

[nate82]

What about going over the signing pool for three players? This might actually be the draft to do this in.

 

Sorry nate82 I missed this earlier. If you could conceivably get 3 power arms in the top 4 rounds or something along those lines I'd definitely do it.

 

 

It is something to think about and if you can get 3 first round talent players and over spend why wouldn't you forfeit one first round player for two more?

 

On a side note I haven't heard much about Mac Marshall lately.

 

Perfect Game Link

 

http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2013/08/31/2014-mlb-draft-profile-mac-marshall/

 

He looks to be someone that could fall to the later rounds due to his college commitment. Though I think a team could easily pull him away from LSU. He is a nice lefty that sits in the low to mid 90's and his change up looks to be a plus pitch to go along with a plus fastball. The only thing he needs to work on is his curveball and that at times has looked like an above average to a plus pitch.

 

If the Brewers take Holmes and Marshall with their first two picks I would be very happy and if they decide to go with someone who also drops due to an injury concern or sign ability I would definitely look at forfeiting next years 1st round pick to take that player.

[TooLiveBrew]

An interesting option would be Jacob Bukauskas(sp?). He has a mid-90s fastball that reportedly touched 100. A bit young for his age and a bit undersized at 6'1, but the arm strength is tough to ignore.

http://i.imgur.com/mbkrJX5.jpg

[colbyjack]

I'm going to go with Sean Newcomb or Kyle Freeland as the team's pick at this point in time. Both have been throwing the ball extremely well all spring. I don't think the team would draft either of them just because they're lefthanded, but it's obviously an added bonus.

 

splitter, I do think you correctly identified the 10 players that will be off the board by the time the Brewers pick.

 

With such a pitcher heavy draft, and the possibility of landing a pretty darn good pitcher with the team's lottery and 2nd round picks, it once again begs the question about drafting a bat early. There aren't too many good ones this year, and we could see a handful of them taken earlier than expected because of this. Monte Harrison in particular is one name we're hearing as a potential first round pick that entered the year as a 2nd-4th rounder and hasn't really done too much to improve his stock other than show up on the field and show his usual athletic talent. Kyle Schwarber continues to do his thing and Casey Gillaspie (Wichita State) is now a candidate for the top 12-25 picks. Michael Chavis is another candidate to be taken higher than initially expected.

 

Just look at the pitching depth when you have prep arms like Mac Marshall, Foster Griffin, Scott Blewett, Luis Ortiz, Joe Gatto, Jack Flaherty, Spencer Adams, Jacob Nix, Justus Sheffield and college arms like Nick Howard, Spencer Turnbull, Chris Ellis, Jace Fry and Jeff Brigham all of whom could be available for the team's 2nd and 3rd picks, with a few of them likely being available for their 3rd round selection.

 

If pitching remains the target, the bats I would target with my lottery and 2nd round picks would include Marcus Wilson, Ti'Quan Forbes and Mike Papi, a much shorter list.

[TooLiveBrew]

Casey Gillaspie (Wichita State) is now a candidate for the top 12-25 picks.

Safe to assume this is Conor's younger brother?

[narwhalattack]

An interesting option would be Jacob Bukauskas(sp?). He has a mid-90s fastball that reportedly touched 100. A bit young for his age and a bit undersized at 6'1, but the arm strength is tough to ignore.

http://i.imgur.com/mbkrJX5.jpg

 

HAAHAHAHA I meant a bit young for this draft class

[narwhalattack]

Hey Colby, where in the draft do you expect Jacob Bukauskas to be selected?

[splitterpfj]

Colby, I have Newcomb going right ahead of the Brewers, to Toronto at #11. Assuming that, and also assuming the Brewers will select a pitcher first, I went with Weaver. You've got a great point with Freeland, I hadn't realized how much his stock has risen until you suggested him here as the Brewers' pick. For those of you who don't know, Kyle Freeland, of Evansville, has gone from, "might be a first round pick", to, "might be gone by the time the Brewers pick."

 

I'll stick with Weaver as my guess, but the more I look at things, the more convinced I become that Milwaukee will take a pitcher in the first round, whether that was their intent or not. Right now, I have 11 pitchers going in the first 15 picks.

[TheCrew07]

I have my doubts that Freeland makes it to the Brewers pick, he's got 2 plus pitches and maybe the best command of any college pitcher in the draft, he seems like a guy that team will take early if they want a pretty sure thing. I don't mean to suggest he has a low ceiling, I think he's a #2, but I think he definitely has a high floor. I actually think he could move as fast as any of the college pitchers at the top of this draft.

 

edit. I admit I might be a bit biased based on the couple of articles that I read and the fact that he's a lefty and I'm partial to lefties, but obviously based on my long post he's the guy I'd target first.

[colbyjack]

I think Weaver is a solid fit, I personally am a little worried by his pretty significant drop in Ks this year combined with the reports I've heard that his velocity has not been consistent and typically falls off noticeably after the first 3-4 innings. He's not the biggest guy in the world, not that it's the reason that's happening, but the Brewers have stated, and proven, to show they like the bigger, more projectable bodies in the pitchers they take in the top 1-2 rounds in recent years. Newcomb is built like an ox and Freeland has about as perfect of a build as you look for in a young arm.

 

Narwal, I think someone is going to pick up Bukauskas before the end of round 1. He went from a guy throwing 88-90 last summer, with clear upside for much more, to mid- to upper-90s this spring with some reports of him touching triple digits. That's crazy. He re-classified from the 2015 class to this year's so he could go to UNC a year early, and then all of the sudden he just happened to find 10 mph on his fastball. Simply unheard of, but scouts are still a little caught off guard by his development. It's good to be both lucky and good I guess.

 

The Dodgers seem to love players like this, and their first pick is in the early 20s.

 

And that is really what makes this year's pitching class so special. Everyone is doing so well, including guys like Freeland, who Todd perfectly phrased about his draft situation 3 months ago vs. today, and Newcomb. No one really has plateaued or even taken a step back. It's pretty incredible, which also leads me to believe the Brewers take an arm in round 1, and possibly with all of their early picks. Should they land that Dominican kid for $3+ million it may lessen the need to add an impact bat in the draft.

 

TLB, yes, Casey Gillaspie is Conor's younger brother.