2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[brewcrewdue80]

 

The only thing I am confident in saying is that Milwaukee will finish with the worst record in the NL. Miami is going to continue to play better, they are younger with very few selling pieces to reduce their talent level for this season.

Milwaukee on the other hand is older, has few young talent to replace all these veterans that should be traded away. Making the team worse overall to finish the season.

 

 

Not e'en close.

 

Yeah, the team didn't trade anyone I thought would be gone: Gallardo, Aoki, Weeks, ARam, and maybe one of Lohse/Estrada... So we played what was it 3-4 games over .500 down the stretch due mostly to how good the pitching was.

[colbyjack]

Not sure if people have noticed, but Carlos Rodon hasn't been quite as dominant so far this spring, and a pair, and possibly a trio, of prep arms could all be in consideration for the No. 1 overall pick. Brady Aiken, Tyler Kolek and Grant Holmes have all pitched exceptionally well this spring, as either Kolek or Holmes could become the first prep righty taken in the 50th year of the MLB Draft.

 

Jeff Hoffman has been very good, as last night he sat at 93-97 in his CG performance over Rice. However, he's not exactly a slam dunk for 1/1 either.

 

San Francisco's Brad Zimmer is now considered a slam dunk pick for the top 10 overall picks and is being tabbed as the best overall hitter available this year.

 

With all that said, with Rodon, who has had expectations of being the No. 1 overall pick (and to be paid in kind) who has been aligned with Scott Boras for quite some time, there is the possibility that he falls in the draft similar to Mark Appel two years ago. It has been reported that Rodon is completely comfortable following in Appel's footsteps and returning for his senior year if he needs to. While there's still plenty of time for things to shake out further, or for Rodon to re-establish himself, things could get very interesting toward the top of the draft over the next two months.

[igor67]

Any pitcher who returns for a senior year if he is drafted in the top 10 is getting horrible advice. Position players have less downside risk for coming back one year, but there is no guarantee you get drafted substantially higher by coming back one more year and a substantial risk of seeing that first shot at 7 figures go up in smoke with one little twinge. It's a great move for Boras because he can absorb the risk of one guy losing the bet on his health in favor of continually pushing the envelope, but the interests of the player on the agent differ quite a bit in situations like this.

[brewcrewdue80]

Tyler Kolek first Pitcher taken off the board....it's going to happen.

[paul253]

It always happens that the guy I start to really like makes a move and come draft day is gone before our pick. in 2012 it was Addison Russel. In 2011 it was Javier Baez and Francisco Lindor. This year the guy I was really hoping for was Brady Aiken but it looks like he'll now be gone before we pick at 12. Thank god for that pointless late season push we made season.

[reillymcshane]

It always happens that the guy I start to really like makes a move and come draft day is gone before our pick. in 2012 it was Addison Russel. In 2011 it was Javier Baez and Francisco Lindor. This year the guy I was really hoping for was Brady Aiken but it looks like he'll now be gone before we pick at 12. Thank god for that pointless late season push we made season.

 

It's odd looking back at the guys you get excited about (and those you didn't).

 

In 2011, I really liked Lindor. I was also high on Sonny Gray and Kolten Wong, but I thought the Jungmann pick was pretty good.

 

In 2006, I was hoping Lincecum would drop. Teams didn't like his size and delivery.

 

In 2005, I really, really wanted Ryan Zimmerman. I thought he'd be another Scott Rolen. I also liked Pelfrey. Funny thing is that I don't remember much about Braun - just that he had a (deserved) rep as a bad fielder.

 

Interesting note - 3 of the top 6 picks in the 2004 draft never made it to the majors (Kyle Sleeth, Chris Lubanski and Ryan Harvey).

[paul253]

In 2005, I really, really wanted Ryan Zimmerman.

 

Alex Gordon was the guy I really wanted. You have to be honest with yourself and accept the misses with all the hits. I was ok with Jungmann and Bradley as picks, though I was a little worried about how much Bradley had been dropping. He had been considered a top 5 pick at one point. I actually was big on Taylor Guerreri that year too.

[Jenkins5]

2011 was a terrible luck draft. Lot of talent we all wanted that just didn't fall. Baez, Springer, Lindor were all guys who realistically could have been there for us. I disliked Jungmann pick most because Texas road his arm into the ground and he was such a high floor- low ceiling pick (IMO). I was much higher on the Bradley pick but he so far proved me wrong (outside of his AFL stint and his start in 13'). I thought without a doubt with two picks there, that at 11 (protected pick) we needed to go to with extreme upside player then we could go safer with with the next pick which was not protected if we didn't sign. I really wanted Guerreri. Fernandez, Swihart, Nimmo were other guys I liked available. I'm a high ceiling High School type guy.

[Eye Black]

Today's Mock Draft update on MyMLBDraft.com is a little disheartening. They have Brady Aiken as the #1 overall pick and they now have 9 pitchers being taken in the first 10 picks. If both Ortiz and Holmes are all off the board when the Brewers draft I will be very disappointed. The only position player they have available at the Brewers selection that interests me is Trea Turner. Just one more loss would have left the Brewers with the #8 pick in this year's draft, and in a lot better position for getting an impact arm.

[Jenkins5]

Today's Mock Draft update on MyMLBDraft.com is a little disheartening. They have Brady Aiken as the #1 overall pick and they now have 9 pitchers being taken in the first 10 picks. If both Ortiz and Holmes are all off the board when the Brewers draft I will be very disappointed. The only position player they have available at the Brewers selection that interests me is Trea Turner. Just one more loss would have left the Brewers with the #8 pick in this year's draft, and in a lot better position for getting an impact arm.

 

Guessing person doing mock just forgot Jacob Gatewood.....if he falls to #20 that's a steal! If Kolek, Aiken, Rodon, Holmes, Ortiz are all off board I'd be outraged if they passed on Gatewood! That would be like having a chance to take Baez and passing. I don't see him possibly making it out of top 10.

[nate82]

I am not a big Rodon fan but if he falls out of the top 10 because of signability and a bad year I would seriously look at offering him 1st pick money and I wouldn't be to worried about losing a pick in next years draft because of it.

[TheCrew07]

I wouldn't go overslot and blow 2 1st rounders for Rodon... too many miles on that arm already. I was actually glad when he was going to be the first pick. He's a guy that would have been better off going pro out of highschool. Between his college season and team USA that's a ton of innings, he threw 132.1 for NC State alone last year as a Sophomore.

 

There are some college programs which are really good at developing players and then there are programs that use up a guy and send him on. Many of the programs who abuse their arms are also the higher profile programs in the country, which is probably why so many of those pitchers don't make it. They were abused in HS and then abused again in College by people who best case didn't know any better and worst case only care about their career victory total as a coach.

 

Many of these really good college pitchers are pushed past 130 pitches in big games, it's borderline criminal, when you consider all of the money and the career they are risking...

 

Rodon is extremely talented but also comes with plenty of red flags, if you can get him for slot then by all means draft him, but there's a solid chance that his inconsistent mechanics, periodic arm problems, and heavy workload will submarine his career. He's not a guy you can risk losing another 1st round pick for, especially after giving one back last year.

 

Remember it's not just the pick, it's the pool money the team loses as well and to me that pool money is just as if not more important than the single draft pick.

 

I like Rodon but I'd have to be convinced he's a LH Verlander for me to take such a high risk drafting him at 12 with very little chance of signing him and I just don't see it.

 

I'm really bummed that the guy I settled on right away in Aiken is performing so well, it's completely selfish of me, but I really want a projectable lefty sooo bad. Maybe we can nab a steal later in the draft like Sean Newcomb.

[Eye Black]

Guessing person doing mock just forgot Jacob Gatewood.....if he falls to #20 that's a steal! If Kolek, Aiken, Rodon, Holmes, Ortiz are all off board I'd be outraged if they passed on Gatewood! That would be like having a chance to take Baez and passing. I don't see him possibly making it out of top 10.

From what I have read, Gatewood's stock has fallen to middle of the first round or possibly lower. It sounds like he is bouncing back somewhat, but is destined for 3B or a corner outfield role. Here is part of Gatewood's scouting report published on BP this morning. The last few sentences address his likely draft position.

 

Jacob Gatewood (SS/3B, Clovis (Clovis, CA) | Commit: Southern California

Gatewood saw his stock fall off this summer after he entered the scouting circuit as the most highly touted bat in the prep ranks. He is a true plus-plus power guy, but found himself selling out for lift, leaving his swing sharply angled and aggressive, with the barrel spending almost no time matching plane and the contact almost exclusively empty or light. His showings at the NHSI, while not impactful, were a step in the right direction. Gatewood was back closer to the Gatewood we saw as an underclassman, with a firmer front side, less collapse on the back side, and at least a willingness to try and hit the ball where pitched as opposed to trying to yank to the pull side. As usual, he’s a capable defender at short right now, but the lower half is less than nimble, and a shift to third or an outfield corner still remains likely. Gatewood hasn’t been a defensible early-first round candidate since the beginning of last summer, but for the first time in a long time he looks like he could be straightening some things out. A strong high school finish and loud team workouts could get him off the board in the first half of the first round. Otherwise he looks like a late to supplemental-first round guy.

[paul253]

The two guys I really want right now are Holmes or Ortiz. However if that mock is the way it goes down I'd be pulling for Gatewood, Davidson or Cease.

 

On a side note, I have a feeling I'm setting myself for a major disappointment in this draft. We all assume the Brewers will take the most talented guy or the with most upside but the Brewers have shown us in the past they don't always do that. For some reason they seem to have this thing for big bodied college guys. And since he fits the mold and is left handed I would not be surprised in the least bit to see Sean Newcomb as the pick.

[narwhalattack]

The two guys I really want right now are Holmes or Ortiz. However if that mock is the way it goes down I'd be pulling for Gatewood, Davidson or Cease.

 

On a side note, I have a feeling I'm setting myself for a major disappointment in this draft. We all assume the Brewers will take the most talented guy or the with most upside but the Brewers have shown us in the past they don't always do that. For some reason they seem to have this thing for big bodied college guys. And since he fits the mold and is left handed I would not be surprised in the least bit to see Sean Newcomb as the pick.

 

Clint Coulter and Devin Williams would beg to differ. :P

[nate82]

I could actually see a srategy of using all of your draft pool money with your first few pick paying off. I am not convinced Rodon is the guy to do that with but I could definitely see a strategy like this working for the correct player or in the right draft.

 

What about going over the signing pool for three players? This might actually be the draft to do this in.

[brewcrewdue80]

That Mock: Michael Conforto? Another OF for this team? Can we trade down? (I know we cant but just thinking, if our luck would be that bad to see 9 pitchers we all like go in top 10?)

On another note, anyone care to chime in on the HS Arm mocked in the competitive balance round? Mac Marshall?

 

Edit Add: Mocks since 3-10 to 4-4:

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/03/the-mock-2014-volume-i/

http://www.sportscity.com/mlb/draft/2014draft/mock-draft/

http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2014/03/25/blfs-2014-mock-draft-v-1/

http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-mock-draft-6-0-top-41-picks/42145

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/03/the-mock-2014-volume-ii/

http://www.indiansbaseballinsider.com/blog/2014-mlb-draft-mock-draft-3-0-64179

 

It seems we are labeled as a College Selection team based on these mocks. Luis Ortiz is available in every one of them, yet we look at college players instead.

 

The thing to see in this is how Aiken/Kolek how becoming the 1/2 and Rodon is sliding to 2/3.

I'm pretty glad I chimed in how much I liked Aiken a couple months ago before his now rise to the top. Maybe there's something to my eye

[CheezWizHed]

Another OF for this team?

 

No idea if this person is worth the spot or not, but if he is the BPA, then you take him. Our system isn't good enough to pass on someone more talented to fill a need.

 

If you have a couple people that are equal rankings, then you take the one of bigger need.

 

[/end standard BPA rant]

[paul253]

Our system isn't good enough to pass on someone more talented to fill a need.

 

I think in this specific case our outfield is deep enough that you can and should pass on an outfielder in the first round. I generally agree with the best player available philosophy but we're are so thin at so many positions (3B, SS, 1B, SP, C) that I don't think we can pass on one of those positions if a player is available that is not too much of a reach.

 

I understand that our talent isn't that great but we have several outfielders that project as every day players (Roache, Haniger, Taylor) and several others who could possibly fit that projection as well (Kentrail Davis, Michael Reed, Gindl, Richardson) We have nobody that projects as a major leaguer at third base right now (depending maybe on how the Jason Rogers experiment turns out). We maybe have one at SS in Arcia, POSSIBLY two at 1B with Morris and Denson, though they are both far from sure things. Catcher we have nobody unless you think Coulter will stay behind the plate. Second base we really have nobody though that's not generally a position you use a first rounder on. And we could always use more SP as I don't believe anyone who profiles as anything higher than a #3. I just don't see how you can select an outfielder when so many other positions are so weak. Unless of course that talent gap between the best outfielder and the next best player is really big but with the #12 pick I don't see that happening.

[Jenkins5]

Another OF for this team?

 

No idea if this person is worth the spot or not, but if he is the BPA, then you take him. Our system isn't good enough to pass on someone more talented to fill a need.

 

If you have a couple people that are equal rankings, then you take the one of bigger need.

 

[/end standard BPA rant]

 

With our system it's important to view BPA as players with highest ceilings. Take your chances. Arnett's, Jungmann's they may be BPA based on where they are right now and production (their floor) however we don't want the next maybe #4-5 start or a possible #4OF or average starter type of ceiling...we want guys who can blossom into great things....or at least tear up minors to be traded.

 

I can never complain about us drafting a guy who has an incredible ceiling even if its a little lower floor. I rather miss on that than settle for a guy who doesn't have an it factor at all in the early 1st and 2nd. I think Seid has finally backed of the college production guys a bit to focus on that. Im fine missing on Mike Jones, Brent Brewer, Mark Rogers, Max Walla (at least as a hitter) and so on because the juice is way more worth the squeeze than an Arnett, Jungmann.

 

2012: Coulter(all around talent with great offensive ceiling) Roache (huge offensive ceiling-without injury he is a top 10 pick) Taylor (Phenomenal athlete with high ceiling) Quintana (very good arm and can develop into a good prospect this season in A)

 

2013: Williams and Neuhaus both are high ceiling prospects, and due to new draft bonus rules they drafted a few more signable solid prospects. Which is fine when it's not in the 1st or 2nd round, don't pass up top talent of average talent early.

 

Even in 2011 he still took flyers on Lopez and Reed early. 2010 had Dylan Covey who I loved but then the whole diabetes at the signing deadline killed. So hopefully he continues to high ceiling guys. This is a class with a lot of high ceiling young kids.... hopefully he gets at least 1 of those young talents. Aiken, Kolek, Holmes, Ortiz, Gatewood, Jackson, Cease, Gordon, Davidson, Toussaint etc.

[paul253]

Aiken, Kolek, Holmes, Ortiz, Gatewood, Jackson, Cease, Gordon, Davidson, Toussaint etc.

 

I'll agree with all of those guys except Toussaint. I don't want another hard throwing no control type guy.

 

One thing I forgot to mention regarding the possibility of selecting an outfielder. On top of all the guys I mentioned, all four outfielders on our current ML roster are under control long term. Braun 2020 at the earliest, Gomez 2016, Davis 2020 and Schafer 2019. That doesn't mean they will be around that long of course but it's just more depth at the already deepest position.

[brewcrewdue80]

In drafting the OF something we are full of, It honestly wouldn't be a problem, if Melvin/Mark A. were the types to trade away a Gomez/ or Braun. But so far history shows they wont. They would instead trade away the Minor players to acquire a ML player who likely has 2-3 years of team control and is already in Arb.

 

So, rather than having the under 25 talent we acquire the 28yr old ML player who leaves via FA at age 30/31 and if we extend him he's going on his decline years.

I'd just much prefer the under 25 talent who when extended it's for his 27-31years after playing 4 seasons with Milw to begin with All of which would likely be less than that single year of Arb in the trade for ML player.

[splitterpfj]

It's impossible to have too many pitchers, and nearly impossible to have too many catchers, so if there's a guy the team is really sold on at those positions, I never object to taking them.

 

I always want the best guy out there, but I understand why some don't want an outfielder first this year. With the abundance of pitchers at the top this time around, I really think that's where the Brewers will go first.

[reillymcshane]

Aiken continues to get talked up. Here's a quote from baseball prospectus:

 

"We are targeting a college pitcher with our first round pick, but Aiken would have been one of the exceptions for us. Now that he can hit a 7 (97 MPH) on the gun, there's just no chance he falls to us. Honestly, I'm not sure how he falls out of the top few picks now. What isn't there to like? You didn't need a radar gun to fall in love with him before, but now he's the complete package."

 

Sounds like a top 5 pick at this point.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23277

[colbyjack]

Another name to throw into the mix, hasn't pitched in a year, behemoth KS prep RHP Bryce Montes de Oca:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9723