2014 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation & Overall 2014 Prospects Discussion Thread

[splitterpfj]

Place your bets, folks, who's it going to be?

 

At the time I'm starting this thread, I believe the Brewers are in line for the 3rd overall pick in 2014, I'll give you a few names to consider...have fun...

 

Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt

Nick Burdi, RHP, Louisville

Jacob Gatewood, SS, Clovis HS (CA)

Alex Jackson, C, Rancho Bernardo HS (CA)

Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC State

 

I think it'll be one of the pitchers, of course the Brewers' draft position could change along the way, but based on what I know today, I'll say they take Tyler Beede. Beede was Toronto's first-round pick in 2011. Beede has number one starter potential, and, as much as you can say this about a kid in his position, he may be a safe selection. He has three plus pitches, the fastball, curve and change.

 

I believe Rodon will be picked either 1 or 2, and I think the team will go with one of the arms.

[narwhalattack]

What about Michael Cederoth? He has a blistering fastball and that's a good place to start. I don't want the Brewers to select Burdi. His delivery will ultimately place him in the bullpen. One does not select a reliever in the top 5. Another name to consider would be Tyler Kolek. He's not mentioned in the top 5 yet, but with an upper 90s fastball with a plus curve ball and slider he could make his way there.

[TooLiveBrew]

Place your bets, folks, who's it going to be?

I feel bad for thinking this, but when I read your question, the sarcastic response that immediately flashed through my head was, 'I dunno -- which one is the big-framed college pitcher who projects to be a #3 or #4 type in a best-case scenario?'

[narwhalattack]

Place your bets, folks, who's it going to be?

I feel bad for thinking this, but when I read your question, the sarcastic response that immediately flashed through my head was, 'I dunno -- which one is the big-framed college pitcher who projects to be a #3 or #4 type in a best-case scenario?'

 

I think the Brewers have given up on that philosophy. In 2012 and 2013 they drafted guys with high ceilings and considerable risks, and maybe they'll go the same route in 2014.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm not a fan that Beede has 60 BBs in 90 some innings( something I read last night but don't have the number in front of me.

 

The only thing I am confident in saying is that Milwaukee will finish with the worst record in the NL. Miami is going to continue to play better, they are younger with very few selling pieces to reduce their talent level for this season.

Milwaukee on the other hand is older, has few young talent to replace all these veterans that should be traded away. Making the team worse overall to finish the season.

 

I feel like White Sox or Houston will compete with Milwaukee for the top 3 draft selections as they too like Milwaukee have valuable players to see lost in trade making bad teams even worse.

 

As to who the Brewers will draft with a top 3 selection? Rodon likely remains in top 3 pick so 33% chance he's selected.

 

Trying to predict a HS player selection with a top 3 pick won't likely happen since there's so much time between now and the draft to see a HS player's stock rise and fall.

 

Current best HS players projected are roughly(picking from various websites)

Alex Jackson C

Touki Toussaint P

Justus Sheffield P

Jack Flaherty

Carson Sands P

Trea Turner SS

Justin Bellinger 1b

Jacob Gatewood OF/3b/P?

Grant Hockin. SP...Grandson to Harmon Killebrew....

Cameron Varga SP

Nick Gordon SS Brother to Dee

 

When it comes to College Players

It's pretty much Rodon and Beede

With Sean Newcomb, Michael Cederoth, and Nick Burdi giving chase.

 

From what I read it sounds like Rodon, Toussaint, Jackson, Beede, Turner, and Bellinger fit a consistent top 10 consensus at the moment.

 

My guess is Rodon if there. Or Turner and Bellinger if there. in that order.

[jjfanec]

I will speculate more after the trading deadline. If the Brewers move Gallardo, Lohse, some relievers and a bat or two like Aoki and Ramirez then I am going Rodon because I think we are the worst team or second worst team I will just pick who seems like the best available player.

 

However Miami could trade Nolasco or even Stanton and seem like a great choice for the worst team. Houston doesnt seem to have a lot to trade so they could easily pass the Brewers. The White Sox and Cubs are teams that could trade off assets and battle the Brewers for last

[TooLiveBrew]

Place your bets, folks, who's it going to be?

I feel bad for thinking this, but when I read your question, the sarcastic response that immediately flashed through my head was, 'I dunno -- which one is the big-framed college pitcher who projects to be a #3 or #4 type in a best-case scenario?'

 

I think the Brewers have given up on that philosophy. In 2012 and 2013 they drafted guys with high ceilings and considerable risks, and maybe they'll go the same route in 2014.

At the very least, they've shown they're not married to the concept. You make a good point.

 

Williams, Coulter, Taylor, Lopez, & Reed are all higher HS picks that look pretty good. Hopefully the Brewers continue going BPA as opposed to looking for specific types of players.

[nate82]

Depending on where the Brewers pick I like Sean Newcomb LHP out of Hartford he throws at about 95 MPH and topping out at about 97 MPH, Brandon Finnegan LHP out of TCU similar to Kazmir and sits around 92-95 MPH, Jacob Gatewood, SS, Clovis (Calif.) High the best high school player in the draft, Jack Flaherty, Harvard-Westlake (Studio City, Calif.), Right-Handed Pitcher I like him better as a hitter than a pitcher, and Touki Toussaint, Coral Springs Christian (Fla.), Right-Handed Pitcher who reportedly has thrown 97 MPH already.

 

Not sure I would take Newcomb right now with a top 5 pick but I have him climbing the ladder and actually becoming the #1 college pitcher for next years draft. I would stay far far far far far away from Rodon.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would stay far far far far far away from Rodon.

I don't know much about Rodon. What scares you off?

[nate82]

I would stay far far far far far away from Rodon.

I don't know much about Rodon. What scares you off?

 

His shoulder is what scares me the most.

 

From scout.com

 

Rodon was the big name in this group entering the spring, so I'll start with him. I saw him in late March this season an he told me after I watched a disappointing start (from a scouting perspective) that he's had soreness in the area around his throwing shoulder all spring and volunteered his velocity had been down all season.

 

In the game I saw, he flashed a 94-96 mph heater with a plus slider in the first (roughly the stuff that gave him buzz as a freshman as a slam dunk #1 overall pick for 2014) and was 89-92 mph with a solid-average slider and diminished command the rest of the game. I'm told this has happened most of the season and he acknowledged as much. Rodon flashes two 65 or 70 pitches when he's right but his fringy changeup, height, lack of projection, lack of standout athleticism and vanishing stuff all are big hurdles to consistently showing and commanding that knockout stuff that could make him the #1 overall pick.

[SRB]

Best odds at this point are obviously on Rodon, just because the Brewers have a likely chance to get the 1/2 overall pick, and we already know they like the guy.

[nate82]

Best odds at this point are obviously on Rodon, just because the Brewers have a likely chance to get the 1/2 overall pick, and we already know they like the guy.

 

I wouldn't be happy with Rodon as I believe he is a ticking time bomb. The way he has been pitching in college and that shoulder issue at the beginning of the year just does not sit well with me. Kind of reminds me of Mike Jones.

[colbyjack]

It's never too early too look ahead .

 

I hope they take a prep bat: Alex Jackson. Ridiculous talent with unfair (yet somewhat appropriate) comparisons to Bryce Harper. The ball flies off his bat like no other player I've seen eligible for the 2014 draft.

 

Jake Gatewood would be good too, but he has a hitch in his swing he needs to iron out (not a major concern as it's correctable, but it's there). Nick Gordon, another prep player, would be a first-rounder as a pitcher if he wasn't so good as a LH hitting SS. Son of Tom, brother of Dee, so the pedigree is also there. But I'd go with the big bat in Jackson, move him to RF and see how quickly his bat carries him to the big leagues. Like Harper (and Rodon I think), he's a Boras guy.

[sheetskout]

If the Brewers go after a prep-bat with the first pick I will shoot someone. We're virtually priced out of the free-agent, frontline starter market. If we're going to have a top-five pick it must be used to find a frontline starter in my opinion. We just don't have the channels to an ace anymore.

 

Should the pick somehow get into the 6-10 range, then I'm a little more open to an offensive player.

[brewcrewdue80]

If the Brewers go after a prep-bat with the first pick I will shoot someone. We're virtually priced out of the free-agent, frontline starter market. If we're going to have a top-five pick it must be used to find a frontline starter in my opinion. We just don't have the channels to an ace anymore.

 

Should the pick somehow get into the 6-10 range, then I'm a little more open to an offensive player.

 

I wouldn't take this stance. If the next potential Albert Pujols was there or the next C.C. Sabathia. What would you rather have in your system?

 

I think with a top 5 pick coming the team really can't go all too wrong. For one the individual selected can't really command a crazy price or decline thinking there's a better payday 1-3years from now. So with a top 5 pick the team needs to try to pick the BPAvailable.

 

Let's say Rodon/Beede are selected. We have the 3rd pick. There's Jackson/Gatewood available or Toussaint. Under current accounts, Jackson seems to have the highest upside that would be passed over because of a Talented SP to fill the team's need?

 

With the top 7 picks I think it's safe to say the BPA needs to be done. When you get to 8-15, BPA would be great but signability becomes an issue. I stated in some other thread, it's like half the money for an 8th pick vs. a 5th pick. and by the time you get to 12 it's about 1/4+ the money vs. a top 5. So a kid in HS with top talent that believes he's a top 5 pick in the future just may forego signing to see the 1million+ added by becoming a top 5 pick vs. 8 on down.

 

This is why I'm hoping Milwaukee ends up with a top 5 pick because I think signability isn't a problem.

[sheetskout]

I wouldn't take this stance. If the next potential Albert Pujols was there or the next C.C. Sabathia. What would you rather have in your system?

 

 

Albert Pujols was a thirteenth-round pick. We get a top-five, we need a pitcher - and a college pitcher most likely. And, I'd take Sabathia in that scenario. I can find you a first baseman that will hit you 25 plus HR's and contribute. There are about ten consistent pitchers over the last five years that have put up the numbers that Sabathia has shown. And they're about five times as rare as high-end offensive players and we already know we can't afford one that's already broken out.

[brewcrewdue80]

Maybe I should have said Ryan Braun or C.C. Sabathia? I know Pujols was a very late round pick. It was more in line with if a player projects to potentially be a 40HR/.330 BA guy for 10 years or a Pitcher who gives you 195-230IP at 3.5ERA Which do you pick? Sabathia was probably a poor pick in this argument not realizing he's been Felix Hernandez like with IP throughout his career and a lower ERA than I thought.

 

2000-2009 top 5 College pitcher selected WAR.

00: Adam Johnson -1.1, Justin Wayne -1.5, Beau Hayle 0 Games, Billy Traber -.7, and Ben Diggins -.7 0 for 5

01: Mark Pryor 16.5, Dewon Brazelton -3, Josh Karp 0 Games, Chris Smith 0 Games, John Van Benschoten -3.5 1 for 5

02: Bryan Bullington -.2, Jeff Francis 10.2, Joe Saunders 11.2, Royce Ring -.9, Jeremy Guthrie 17.7 3 for 5

03: Kyle Sleeth 0 Games, Tim Stauffer 3.5, Paul Maholm 13.7, Ryan Wagner -.3, Chad Cordero 7.5 2 for 5

04: Justin Verlander 38.1, Philip Humber 1.2, Jeff Nieman 4.1, Jeremy Sowers 1.6, Wade Townsend(unsigned) 0 Games 2 for 5

05: Ricky Romero 9.8, Wade Townsend 0 Games, Mike Pelfry 4.9, Lance Broadway .3, Cesar Carillo -.7 2 for 5

06: Luke Hochever 1.3, Greg Reynolds -1.3, Brad Lincoln .5, Brandon Morros 7.6, Andrew Miller -2.7, 1 for 5

07: David Price 15.7, Daniel Moskos .2, Ross Detwiler 2.5, Casey Weathers 0 games, Joe Savory -.1 1.5 for 5

08: Brian Matusz 1.8, Aaron Crow 2.8(unsigned), Andrew Cashner 1.4, Josh Fields -.1, Ryan Perry .3 call it 2 for 5

09: Stephen Strasburg 8.4, Mike Minor 2.1, Mike Leake 6.6, Drew Storen 2.2, Aaron Crow 2.8 5 for 5

 

That's 20.5 effective College picked Pitchers out of 50 top 5 college draft selections. 40% basically. And the WAR Goes:

38.1 17.7 16.5 15.7 13.7 11.2 10.2 9.8 8.4 7.6 7.5 6.6 4.9 4.1

And giving half credit for 2.5 Detwiler for future gains on WAR. Full credit each on 1.8 and 1.4 for future gains on Matusz/Cashner 2.1, 2.2, and 2.8 for Minor, Storen and Crow future Gains.

Didn't make my list if under 4WAR career otherwise.

 

If Rodon/Beede/Burdi are the best College pitchers to select from it's not a good sign based on history there's already doubts about them for them to come away as 4+ Career WAR contributors if we select one of them.

 

That's what amazes me the Brewers took both Jungmann and Bradley and not 1 HS pitcher considering Jungmann and Bradley were the 4th/5th college pitchers to be selected. Hasn't history shown the poor draft results after the first 3 college pitchers taken? In those 10years only 2 had a WAR above 4.

 

I'll take the Best HS Bat available vs. drafting the 2nd/3rd/ or 4th considered best College Pitcher available if we can draft the best one.

[sheetskout]

I'll take the Best HS Bat available vs. drafting the 2nd/3rd/ or 4th considered best College Pitcher available if we can draft the best one.

 

So by that logic you would have drafted Bubba Starling over Hultzen, Bauer, Jungmann, Sonny Gray, Matt Barnes, Tyler Anderson, or Alex Meyer? Eh?

 

The bottom line is that the Brewers can find offense, whether it's on the free-agent market, through trade, waivers, etc. The probability of finding a frontline starter after pick 15 drops dramatically.

 

David Price (first overall)

Justin Verlander (second overall)

Clayton Kershaw (seventh overall)

Matt Harvey (seventh overall)

Stephen Strasburg (first overall)

 

Keep in mind that the rest (or close to the rest) of the REALLY dominant starting pitchers right now were international free agents. The Cliff Lee's of the world happen WAY to non-frequeltly (fourth round).

 

No one said there wasn't risk to a top arm, early in a draft. But you have to take that chance when you get a bottom-five record.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well Skeets I'd also draft the Best on draftboard Pitcher from the HS ranks. I didn't say it because I was rebutting my Pujols vs. Sabathia comment. A Batter vs. a Pitcher.

 

Guess what I'm getting at is if the College Pitchers, Rodon/Beede are off the board, history would indicate time to avert attention to a HS player rather than the next best College arm. You look at that 10year list and it's Price,Verlander, and Strasburg as the only true Aces to be drafted out of College with the top 5 College arm selections. Though I could give Pryor some credit if injuries hadn't derailed his career.

 

So if an Ace/Frontline Starter is what you are looking for there are 4 in 50 College Draft selections in that 10year span.

The argument is that just having a top 3 pick doesn't mean it Has to be used on a College Arm as you are championing for.

[Hammer]

[sarcasm]Not sure about the 2014 draft but my son will be a 1st rounder in 2024

 

7 y/o, musclebound, 8-pack abs, batting .796 avg, 2.066 OPS in tournament play, rocket arm with real mechanics and a dad that will be his agent [/sarcasm]

 

 

Seriously though, I would hope that the team takes the best player available. Personally, I prefer high upside pitching but the "next Bryce Harper" works for me as well...

[paul253]

Right now, so far out, I can say I'll be extremely disappointed if they don't draft a college pitcher with #1 or at the very least #2 potential. The way the organization is set up, they definitely need an ace. As things come together and our draft position is set and players solidify their draft position it may become clear a position player fits the draft pick better I could get more board with a position player. I just don't want them to take an outfielder.

[Eye Black]

The Area Code Games (Aug. 5-10) "Brewers Roster" is set with several players expected to go high in next year's draft including several potential 1st and 2nd round talents such as Alex Jackson, Brady Aiken, Jack Flaherty, Luke Dykstra, Scott Hurst, etc. With the Brewers set to get multiple picks in the top 40-ish range, we might be getting a sneak peak of one of these guys donning a Brewers uni.

[CheezWizHed]

Luke Dykstra? Almost a lock to be drafted by the Brewers, right? Or at least Jack Z...

[HiAndTight]

Place your bets, folks, who's it going to be?

I feel bad for thinking this, but when I read your question, the sarcastic response that immediately flashed through my head was, 'I dunno -- which one is the big-framed college pitcher who projects to be a #3 or #4 type in a best-case scenario?'

 

I think the Brewers have given up on that philosophy. In 2012 and 2013 they drafted guys with high ceilings and considerable risks, and maybe they'll go the same route in 2014.

 

 

I'd like to know when they EVER did that? I mean, of course it's popular on here to have a pretty steady flow of negativity towards all things Brewers right now, Jed Bradley was at one point a potential top 5 pick. He and Jungman were rated as the 8th and 9th best prospects in the draft. Everyone was thrilled when Arnett slipped to us and I'd say Jimmy Nelson is inspiring a helluva lot of confidence right now since his stuff is very similar to that of Peralta's. Of course during all those years they used early round picks on players that people were giddy about on here like Jorge Lopez....which is fine, young HS arms who have that much room to improve are exciting.

 

But this theory that they were targeting low ceiling guys is revisionist history.

[heresrobin]

Extremely early rankings from SB Nation:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/7/27/4558480/extremely-early-2014-mlb-draft-rankings

 

Carlos Rodon, Austin Jackson, and Tyler Kolek are my early favorites.