Corey Hart - Realistic re-sign value. Should we even try?

[brewtown82]

Two questions: 1) How cheaply can Hart be had next year given his contract year lost to injury in 2013?

2) Regardless of the price, do we want him back or do we have organizational options (i.e. schafer, etc) that can fill in for less money/better performance?

[brewcrewdue80]

I said it in another discussion. I would be very upset if the Brewers signed Hart to play 1b next season. There's zero advantage to it.

My assumption of money is likely in the Josh Willingham price range. 3yrs/21million. Or shorter value of 2/16 1/8 or 1/9.

 

That is money that personally, I'd want to be used for Segura's contract extension locking him up. It won't work that way since Segura even if extended today won't make more than 1.5mil next season or a combined 7mil next year and the year after. But, if I was going to set aside some payroll money for Segura, not signing Hart would be the very first thing I do.

 

Morris/Gamel will be everyday first base next year. Really just Morris. I expect him to be a September callup getting his feet wet and after Spring Training next season roll in to 1b for the season.

The premise right now is Morris doesn't look ready. He has all of July. All of August. All of September if need be to show something that he looks ready. Morris has flashes of good streaks down there, and I'm sure it will occur more often as he sees that pitching another time through and another time through making adjustments.

 

So why sign Corey Hart?

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees sign him to a lucrative 2 year deal maybe 2/22. It makes a lot of sense as they are constructed. Whether Hart plays 1b with Texiera DH'ing or the opposite Hart at DH/Tex at 1b.

[chadomac]

Do you really think that Corey Hart gets a three year deal from someone after missing the entire season? I don't. I'd be surprised if he got more than a one year deal.

 

If they think they can compete next year I could see them signing Hart to a one year deal for a few million... but if they don't think they have a shot next year they'll let him walk.

[brewcrewdue80]

Do I think he can get a 3yr deal? No not really. But if it's 3/21 and Corey is average with 20+HRs that team may think it was a steal.

 

I'm thinking it's a 1yr deal for him but it will cost more in the 10mil range since they will be other bidders. Then if Corey performs he may look at a 10-11MM 2year deal following 2014. So then it's 30-32Mil for 3years vs. locking up 21mil for 3 years.

 

Still don't want Milwaukee to pursue him at all. And my speculation is Corey gets 8-10mil for 1yr next season. He should end up on an AL team to be a 1b/DH protection if his knees don't give him enough athletic ability to field everyday.

[GAME05]

i figure Hart would be looking for a 1-year deal to prove to us and other teams that he's healthy before he goes for a bigger contract. i'd be happy to take him on a 1/5-7, even if it doesn't mean he doesn't play a prominent role on the team next year.

 

Morris is too good of a prospect and Gamel is still an unknown that there's just no way to fit Hart in at 1B next year, even despite good defense at the position. you could theoretically move Gamel to RF, but that's not really done with players coming off basically two years of injury.

 

i'm assuming Gomez will be gone next year, as well as Aoki, so there's a definite need for some OF help, even if Hart isn't that flexible defensively. Hart's age and injury don't justify a longer deal, but he'd be a great addition on a one year deal. i'd love to see him back.

[Warning Track Power]

I won't be shocked if Corey is extended to the tune of 2 years $15 million after this season. Seems like a very Melvin move to me. Corey shouldn't be done as he is only 31 and $7.5 million/season for ages 32 & 33 is relatively inexpensive for the potential of 30 HR. I don't see Melvin passing that up if Corey will take it.

[HiAndTight]

He likes Milwaukee, he's approached the team in the past about re-signing here.

 

I'd say sign him to a 2 year 12 million dollar deal with 4-6 in incentives and hope he becomes a trade asset. The Brewers FA signings the next year or two(at least) should be geared towards signing players who will be trade able in the future.

 

Like they did with K-Rod. Like they did during the lean times. Ect...ect....

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't want to see the team sign Hart again, as painful as that is to admit. I wanted to see him traded last trade deadline, when he still had a good amount of value due to being under contract for 2013 as well. Unfortunately, that plan was not pursued.

 

Now, it's time to move on. No reason to spend $5-10-ish million or whatever it will take to sign Corey for the moderate upgrade he's likely to be over Hunter Morris.

[ewitkows]

If Aoki get traded I'd have no problems bring him back on a 1 year deal maybe with a club option for a 2nd year. He could play RF or 1st if morris doesnt make it

[igor67]

As Melvin correctly commented in the posted Grantland story the Brewers have too many options in some ways. Hart is one of many. I don't think you can have a sensible evaluation of whether bringing Corey back makes sense until after the trade deadline. Sell off as many spare parts for the best players available (catchers would be about the only player I'd pass on), continue to evaluate the triple AAA guys to see who has a role for next year and what kind. Then you can figure out if you are going with Morris next year, or going to go the somewhat surer route of extending Hart at a modest cost for a year. I'd view it as something of a luxury that our core guys are up the middle types and outside of a catcher you could pretty plausibly shift people around to accommodate just about any top level prospect coming in at a position. So if someone offers a great SS move him to 2nd or 3rd. Makes finding a match easier and therefore easier to get the best talent possible.

[JohnBriggs12]

They do have a lot of options at first base. Francisco, Halton, Morris, Gamel are still in play to one extent or another depending on what if any other spots (3B and RF) open up. I don't see any one of those guys putting up by themselves what a healthy Hart has done in the not too distant past but that doesn't mean they can't in a platoon. Halton looks like a guy who could be a RH platoon partner with any of those three.

 

I see Hart signing a one year deal in the $5-7 million range with incentives that would put him over $10 million. If in fact the Brewers cut some payroll through trading of Gallardo, and or Ramirez, they certainly can afford to bring Hart back.

[jackailius]

And depending on who we are able to trade off, a $5 to $10 M Hart might be looked at as a good idea from the front office because if we get rid of Ramirez, Gallardo, Aoki, possibly Lohse and with any luck Weeks, there will be a lot of casual fans who will appreciate seeing a known Brewer out on the field. From a strictly dollars and sense, long term planning and logistics it may not make sense but from a bigger picture, cheeks in the seats/fan standpoint it may be best.

[Eye Black]

I don't want to see the team sign Hart again, as painful as that is to admit. I wanted to see him traded last trade deadline, when he still had a good amount of value due to being under contract for 2013 as well. Unfortunately, that plan was not pursued.

 

Now, it's time to move on. No reason to spend $5-10-ish million or whatever it will take to sign Corey for the moderate upgrade he's likely to be over Hunter Morris.

 

This is my mindset exactly. At this point I think they should cut their losses and focus on transactions that improve the team long term. I would be surprised if Corey signed anything beyond a one year deal this off-season, and I have a hard time picturing him operating at 100% at the beginning of next season.

[brewcrewdue80]

He likes Milwaukee, he's approached the team in the past about re-signing here.

 

I'd say sign him to a 2 year 12 million dollar deal with 4-6 in incentives and hope he becomes a trade asset. The Brewers FA signings the next year or two(at least) should be geared towards signing players who will be trade able in the future.

 

Like they did with K-Rod. Like they did during the lean times. Ect...ect....

 

If the offer is only 6mi/yr for 2years. No way does Corey agree to that. He was a guy coming in to this season that could have had a 13-16MM 2-4year contract coming his way. So to sign a 2year deal for less than anything remotely what a 1yr value he could be worth would be dumb on his agent and Corey's end.

 

If Aoki get traded I'd have no problems bring him back on a 1 year deal maybe with a club option for a 2nd year. He could play RF or 1st if morris doesnt make it

 

From all accounts, Corey was a faltering RF in 2011. Now after 2 knee surgeries? I can't possibly imagine a team thinking he's a RF for them. And for the Brewers sake, they don't need any more RF with our glutton of OFs needing a place on this team to play.

 

They do have a lot of options at first base. Francisco, Halton, Morris, Gamel are still in play to one extent or another depending on what if any other spots (3B and RF) open up. I don't see any one of those guys putting up by themselves what a healthy Hart has done in the not too distant past but that doesn't mean they can't in a platoon. Halton looks like a guy who could be a RH platoon partner with any of those three.

 

I see Hart signing a one year deal in the $5-7 million range with incentives that would put him over $10 million. If in fact the Brewers cut some payroll through trading of Gallardo, and or Ramirez, they certainly can afford to bring Hart back.

 

All those options at first base yet it makes sense to bring him back for 1year?

The question for me is:

With what, all those options are being paid, How many more wins does Corey provide to make it worth 5-10mil to sign him? For all we know Morris could turn out a 2-3 WAR 1b next season. or just 1WAR reasonably. On a team with no true pitching to lead them for 2014, why invest money in to it to be Quote from Melvin, "In the middle. We don't want to be in the middle"?

 

That's all Corey Hart, like Lohse signings do is create a higher likelihood of finishing in the middle.

 

 

And if the trade bait idea is really logical, what is stopping the team that could use Corey at 1b from signing him to a 2/22 mil contract? Why forego an added 1mil or 2mil a year signing only to trade away prospects that likely have more value than Corey in a year, when all it would have taken to keep those prospects and have Corey was 1-2mil a year over Milwaukee's offer to Corey?

 

If Corey remains in Milwaukee, it's because he really wants to and it's on the incentive laden deal like HiandTight proposes. 5mil incentives to 10mil. But, I truly believe some other team will offer him 7mil guaranteed up to 10mil to play 1b for them. Remember, 1b in MLB today, has few stars and a major lack of depth to it. Prospects at 1b? Morris is the #2 rated among them. Yet we want Corey to return because Hunter may not be a decent MLB ballplayer? It shows just how much value Corey should command at 1b.

[gregmag]

If this wasn't Corey Hart -- if this was somebody else's player who:

 

-- was going to be 32 next year;

 

-- missed all of 2013 with an injury from which he was slow to recover;

 

-- had missed substantial time in two of the prior four years and had only ever played 150 games once, at age 26;

 

-- had to move from RF because he absolutely couldn't hack it out there, and now was permanently limited to 1b

 

-- had no real value when he last played beyond 30-HR power (which of course is worth quite a bit) . . .

 

. . . would you want to sign him to play for the 2014 Brewers? I just can't see it. Why would we pay an aging 1b even $5 million to see whether he could play 145 games and hit 30 HRs, which seems to me like the best-reasonable-case scenario?

 

I don't think Morris is a world-beater, and I would bet that Hart next year has the better season; but I wouldn't bet a lot. Morris has a decent chance to match Hart's production next year, for almost no money, and he has a chance of improving, which Corey doesn't. That's just one option. If you don't like Morris, then go with some combination of Gamel (if he ever stops getting hurt), Green, Francisco, or any number of defensively challenged one-dimensional power hitters who will be scuffling around this winter. Put all the possible options on the table, and there's no longer the barest reason to tender Hart.

 

I know some people resist letting Hart go because it seems to entail a choice of rebuilding over trying to contend. The thing is, no team with serious hope of contending would sign Corey Hart to play 1b and hit in the middle of the lineup. With all the factors I emphasized, he just doesn't profile as a championship-caliber player anymore. I'd love for him to beat the odds, but that's what I think the odds are.

 

It's hard to see past our current 1b disaster, but no team since the Truman administration has screwed up 1b this badly. I hesitate to say this about the Brewers, but it would be almost impossible for us to screw up 1b that badly again, ever, before the sun explodes. We should cut bait on Corey and figure out our best cheap option in the offseason.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I think it's inevitable the Brewers sign Hart to an incentive 1 year deal. People keep saying the Brewers have other option, but think about it this way...... Are they quality options? Also think about all of the option they have already went through this season. The only one left who could possibly make a difference seems to be 1-2 years away and that is Morris, which he is struggling.

 

Just sign Hart to a 1 year incentive deal if he's healthy it's a total steal and the Brewers will have the money. Let Morris have a year or two in the minors and let him destroy AAA pitching then call him up after that. Give him time to develop.

[brewcrewdue80]

Let's put this down for now. And come back every 2 weeks.

Hunter Morris YTD: .244/.333/.492/.826

17/2b 2/3b 15HR 39RBI 33BB 61K

 

What kind of AAA line does Morris need to have for the Non-Believers to quit thinking he won't be ready next season from this starting point?

 

Let's say all the Slash lines decrease. Yes, then Morris would look ill prepared.

Or the slash lines increase. He finishes .272/.351/.527/.878? Is that not good enough to believe he can be ready for next season? Considering where he'd have come from to reach those numbers?

 

I expect him to continue to improve. and get called up in Sept. I hope as our everyday 1b at that point to finish the season. So then he shows if he the improvement in AAA as the year went on, could be counted on next season. Making this a completely mute idea.

[craigharmann]

In a word, the answer to the question is no. In two words, the answer to the question is absolutely not. Hart isn't worth the money, when there are replacement players coming up, and first base is one of the easier positions to find a player. Thanks for your help Corey, good luck in the future.

[paul253]

Maybe Halton will play well enough to prevent the need for resigning Hart. A Halton/Gamel platoon wouldn't be the end of the world in a rebuilding year. Of course that means you lose Hart for nothing, which is a massive fail on Melvin's part.

[Roderick]

A Halton/Gamel platoon wouldn't be the end of the world in a rebuilding year. Of course that means you lose Hart for nothing, which is a massive fail on Melvin's part.

 

I wouldn't consider losing Hart a fail (especially massive) by Melvin. How is anyone supposed to know that not one but both legs would give out on Hart? It wasn't like they were planning on him in the OF, where you would need him to be able to run.

 

And if you have the 2012 production you had from Hart, ARam, Braun, Gallardo and Estrada this year, there was every reason to think the Brewers could be competitive and if they fell a little short, they would still be able to get something for Hart at the deadline.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't know why the assumption is that the first option is Morris and not Halton other than the fact the Brewers are a bit short on lefty bats. I don't think I'd want my 1B job handed over to a guy hitting .246/.332/.496 at AAA. Chris Davis hit .337/.397/.609 at AAA and even he took a while to establish himself in the majors. Now Morris doesn't have to be Davis for sure, but he could use a little more consistency.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't know why the assumption is that the first option is Morris and not Halton other than the fact the Brewers are a bit short on lefty bats. I don't think I'd want my 1B job handed over to a guy hitting .246/.332/.496 at AAA. Chris Davis hit .337/.397/.609 at AAA and even he took a while to establish himself in the majors. Now Morris doesn't have to be Davis for sure, but he could use a little more consistency.

 

Halton is 26 repeated AAA this season and his OPS is almost identical to 24yr old Morris seeing AAA pitching for the first time. I posted earlier, I expect Morris to move his AAA triple slash lines higher as the season moves on. Morris will be 25 next season 6years of control so his reign ends when he's 31. What more do the Brewers need to keep him down for after this season?

[markedman5]

Why not platoon the 2? Halton can also play outfield so he would be a good bench bat to have on the team next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think it's realistic for Corey to play outfield anymore, aside from the very very infrequent spot-start. His knees + outfield duty = ticking time bomb.

[Invader3K]

I don't think it's realistic for Corey to play outfield anymore, aside from the very very infrequent spot-start. His knees + outfield duty = ticking time bomb.

 

Exactly. He's strictly a 1B/DH type at this point in his career. His speed is gone.