International Signings 2013-2014: Brewers sign CF Nicolas Pierre and SS Franly Mallen, each for $800k

[SRB]

Here's a question. If BA/MLB can rank these kids with a top 30 in mind. And as the Brewers you have 2.227mil to use towards them. Why would target the lower rung 20/28th ranking? and not just go like KC or White Sox and just put the money on the kid with the highest prospect ranking for your money?

 

I like BA/MLB but ranking 16-year-old international prospects seems pretty nonsensical to me. Maybe there is a consensus generational-type talent every once in a while, but I don't think spending $2+ million on a 16-year-old (whatever "scouts" grade him) is really netting you a "very good prospect"

 

These players getting $750k-$3m are all relatively interchangeable I think. Maybe the guys at the higher end of that scale are slightly more impressive, but we're not talking a huge difference in baseball money/talent here.

[trwi7]

$800K is one of the biggest Latin America signings the Brewers have sprung for in recent memory, no?

 

It's the most they've ever spent on one player.

[TheCrew07]

Brewers Sign Venezuelan Righthander Nelson Hernandez

 

edit. Be sure to read the stories, Ben Badler is putting the scouting information into them (normally subscriber info).

[brewcrewdue80]

Here's a question. If BA/MLB can rank these kids with a top 30 in mind. And as the Brewers you have 2.227mil to use towards them. Why would target the lower rung 20/28th ranking? and not just go like KC or White Sox and just put the money on the kid with the highest prospect ranking for your money?

 

I like BA/MLB but ranking 16-year-old international prospects seems pretty nonsensical to me. Maybe there is a consensus generational-type talent every once in a while, but I don't think spending $2+ million on a 16-year-old (whatever "scouts" grade him) is really netting you a "very good prospect"

 

These players getting $750k-$3m are all relatively interchangeable I think. Maybe the guys at the higher end of that scale are slightly more impressive, but we're not talking a huge difference in baseball money/talent here.

 

I wish there were a history of who the top 5 or 10 international prospects were at the time of being able to sign these 16yr olds to look back on and see how many never made it or how many actually were legit ballplayers.

 

BA had a piece from an article(newspaper) of when Miami signed Miguel Cabrera in 1999 and it stated he was the jewel of this year's crop.

It would at least back up my assumption.

I more or less was thinking that with the Brewers only connected to 1 top 30 international player they weren't going to sign anyone else in the top 30 after Pierre. But they can Franly Mallen who also went at 800k. So 1.6mil of the 2.227mil available on two top 30 players.

 

I really just want to see them get an arm. (I don't know how Nelson Hernandez will turn out being outside top 30 consideration) A highly touted one. It'd be great if they nabbed Jen-Ho Tseng though it would likely come with the team trading for slot money to accomplish this.

 

What the Cubs did is pretty spectacular nabbing the #1/2 players and 15th ranked. OF/SS/RHP The Brewers are going to have a very hard time competing with the Cubs if their prospects pan out.

Baez,Soler,Almora,Vizcaino.

[TheCrew07]

Cardinals Sign Dominican Shortstop Hector Linares

[Jenkins5]

Because these are 16 year old kids and can't be projected easily. Most of these kids are high school sophomores in American terms. How can you justify spending all you money one one kid? The Brewers have missed on nearly all their big bonus signings to this point ( Pena & Rubio are flashing potential, Peralta was a hit) and have actually seen more low bonus unknowns like Alcides and Arcia shine. Look at Gomez.. at 16 he was a $60k guy by 19 he was top 10 player in milb and knocking on MLB door. I didn't look it up but I bet most of those huge bonus guys before him never even made it to MLB

 

Moreover you dont scout and sign on what ba or MLB website scouts rank guys. Scouts find guys and if they fall in love with what they see, they will pursue regardless of what "baseball America" ranked them. Im very happy with the splash Brewers made. Even better they didn't just burn their wallets on one talentedprospect however mulitiple. Zero way to justify spending 2million on a 16year old... There is no way to predict how they will develop

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess I take the opposite angle on the cost. If you sign an elite(ly-regarded) 16yo Latin America kid for $1.5M, isn't that a good gamble compared to, for example, an older Randy Wolf at $30M total or whatever he got? That contract had to have been an overpay by at least $2M. So why not gamble with $2M on a kid who could wind up being your next Miguel Cabrera or Pedro Martinez?

 

This kind of financial market is one in which a small market club like the Brewers can actually compete on signing 'free agents'. So why not go big? That said, I have no issue with splitting that $1.5M-ish number into two lottery tickets as opposed to one, like the Brewers did this year with two $800K signings.

[SRB]

I wish there were a history of who the top 5 or 10 international prospects were at the time of being able to sign these 16yr olds to look back on and see how many never made it or how many actually were legit ballplayers.

 

BA had a piece from an article(newspaper) of when Miami signed Miguel Cabrera in 1999 and it stated he was the jewel of this year's crop.

It would at least back up my assumption.

Cabrera is/was a once-in-a-generation type talent though.

 

I tried to find past top international prospects via google archives (though kind of jumbled). In 2008 the consensus top player was Michael Ynoa, who is currently 21 in A-ball for the Athletics with mediocre numbers in his minor league career (didn't make BA Organizational Top 10 this year).

 

In 2009 the consensus top three players seems to have been (order unclear): Miguel Sano, who signed with the Twins, is now at AA, and was ranked #9 in baseball by BA for 2013; Wagner Mateo, who is 20 and was demoted to Rookie ball this year for the Diamondbacks; and Gary Sanhez, who was #57 overall in baseball for 2013

 

In 2010 there were actual BA rankings: the #1 prospect Martin (Estelion) Peguero, currently looks like a bust for the Mariners; #2 Luis Heredia is a good prospect for the Pirates and was ranked #78 overall coming into 2013 by BA; #3 Adonys Cardona is look like a bust for the Blue Jays

 

So of these seven top-3-caliber international prospects, 4 are looking like total busts, 1 is a top-10 caliber prospect, and 2 are top-100 caliber prospects.

[TheCrew07]

In 2008 the consensus top player was Michael Ynoa, who is currently 21 in A-ball for the Athletics with mediocre numbers in his minor league career (didn't make BA Organizational Top 10 this year).

 

In fairness to Ynoa he's been hurt, he was the A's 18th rated prospect coming into the year:

Ynoa stood 6-foot-4 when he 13 years old, and some international scouts labeled him a once-in-a-generation talent leading up to his signing in 2008. At the time, his $4.25 million bonus was the largest ever given to a Latin American amateur. Injuries have stymied his pro career, knocking him out for all of 2009 (elbow tendinitis) and 2011 (recovering from Tommy John surgery). Ynoa pitched meaningful innings for the first time in 2012, and the fact that he stayed healthy mattered more to the A’s than his unimpressive statistics. By the end of instructional league, he finally felt comfortable enough to completely let loose on the mound. Ynoa’s talent is still apparent. He has a smooth delivery and his fastball jumps out of his hand at 93-95 mph. He has a sharp 12-to-6 curveball with good rotation. He needs to hone his fastball command and refine a changeup that features promising depth. Oakland still believes in his potential and protected him on its 40-man roster in November. He’ll head to full-season ball for the first time in 2013, with a goal of working 120 innings at Beloit.

 

[pre]Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff W L W-L% ERA IP BB SO WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB

2010 18 Athletics ARIZ Rk OAK 0 1 .000 5.00 9.0 4 11 1.111 6.0 1.0 4.0 11.0 2.75

2012 20 2 Teams 2 Lgs A--Rk OAK 1 4 .200 6.46 30.2 25 25 1.826 9.1 0.9 7.3 7.3 1.00

2012 20 Athletics ARIZ Rk OAK 0 1 .000 5.40 10.0 9 6 2.000 9.9 0.9 8.1 5.4 0.67

2012 20 Vermont NYPL A- OAK 1 3 .250 6.97 20.2 16 19 1.742 8.7 0.9 7.0 8.3 1.19

2013 21 Beloit MIDW A OAK 2 1 .667 2.14 54.2 18 48 1.152 7.4 0.5 3.0 7.9 2.67

3 Seasons 3 6 .333 3.82 94.1 47 84 1.367 7.8 0.7 4.5 8.0 1.79

Rk (2 seasons) Rk 0 2 .000 5.21 19.0 13 17 1.579 8.1 0.9 6.2 8.1 1.31

A (1 season) A 2 1 .667 2.14 54.2 18 48 1.152 7.4 0.5 3.0 7.9 2.67

A- (1 season) A- 1 3 .250 6.97 20.2 16 19 1.742 8.7 0.9 7.0 8.3 1.19[/pre]

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

 

He'll be back in Oakland's top 10 after this season, he's been really good in 2013 and was very impressive when I saw him pitch. I was skeptical of him going into that game, but came away impressed. Typically command is the last thing to come back after TJ surgery and I'm willing to buy that he wasn't fully recovered for the 2012 campaign based on what I saw against WI.

[brewcrewdue80]

I guess I take the opposite angle on the cost. If you sign an elite(ly-regarded) 16yo Latin America kid for $1.5M, isn't that a good gamble compared to, for example, an older Randy Wolf at $30M total or whatever he got? That contract had to have been an overpay by at least $2M. So why not gamble with $2M on a kid who could wind up being your next Miguel Cabrera or Pedro Martinez?

 

This kind of financial market is one in which a small market club like the Brewers can actually compete on signing 'free agents'. So why not go big? That said, I have no issue with splitting that $1.5M-ish number into two lottery tickets as opposed to one, like the Brewers did this year with two $800K signings.

 

 

That's basically what I'm harping on. They are all risks. I'd rather heap my money in to the 1 who sounds the most talented which comes with the least risk. Vs. Tossing medium amounts across 4-5 guys hoping to hit on 1 maybe 2.

 

It's one of those strictly Lottery Ticket deals that is also like a Raffle. Paying to buy the highest regarded 16yr old is like buying the 50 tickets in to the raffle at a buy 40 get 50 price.

 

Putting your money in to the lesser group of prospects is like buying 25 tickets. 15 tickets. and 10tickets. It's still 50 tickets but it cost full price rather than the discount.

 

I'm really just being a homer and want the Brewers to win somewhere that they can with everybody. Or at least compete fairly well. They may not have had the funds for a top 4 ranking today prospect but they did to buy #'s 5-10 Something the power teams shouldn't have had the ability. The Cubs/Rockies certainly used their funds to attain the top of crop. But so did the Rangers taking on the penalties full force. I think they see what the value is in these kids in return on their money should they live up to the expectations.

 

In Fact, I think what Texas is doing is awesome. They clearly have the money to expend even with penalties. Still the return/ leg up they are getting over the other 30teams by doing so could turn out well worth the gamble. I hope Texas signs yet another top 10 international prospect just to continue making a statement.

[TheCrew07]

Just a reminder, not many of BA's top 30 left. Cubs are closing in on the #1 via this article so as expected they will sign #1 and #2. Also a reminder that teams can sign as many as 6 players under 50k without it counting against the pool.

 

Where The Top 30 International Prospects Have Signed

[HiAndTight]

I guess I take the opposite angle on the cost. If you sign an elite(ly-regarded) 16yo Latin America kid for $1.5M, isn't that a good gamble compared to, for example, an older Randy Wolf at $30M total or whatever he got? That contract had to have been an overpay by at least $2M. So why not gamble with $2M on a kid who could wind up being your next Miguel Cabrera or Pedro Martinez?

 

This kind of financial market is one in which a small market club like the Brewers can actually compete on signing 'free agents'. So why not go big? That said, I have no issue with splitting that $1.5M-ish number into two lottery tickets as opposed to one, like the Brewers did this year with two $800K signings.

 

 

Without being sarcastic, I don't see where the Randy Wolf comment comes into play....at all. Nobody is comparing international signings to signing ML FA's. The debate was why don't the Brewers just use their whole pool or the majority of it on the very best player rather than splitting it up between two good prospects.

 

The person who said these are 16 year old kids was making the point that....well.....they're 16 year old kids. Fine, they were right on Miguel Cabrera, but if the Major League draft is a crap shoot with regard to the 1st round picks, then imagine taking our all the 18 and 21 year old kids?

 

 

I would agree with the premise that you try to sign 2-3 good prospects that you're high on rather than spend it all on one prospect. Unless there is that Miguel Cabrera, and at 16 that's extremely rare.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm analyzing value gained from money spent. Not directly comparing signing vet FAs to signing kids internationally. Genuinely not sure what's confusing about that (not being snarky). It's very likely the Brewers 'wasted' $2M of the Wolf deal... in that they didn't get production to fully match the price they paid. But Wolf himself isn't the important part -- pick almost any vet FA deal.

 

So if there's going to be a financial attrition of sorts within most or any vet FA contracts, then I'd rather make sure the Brewers are spending/'losing' that money to attrition with the potential upside of a Miguel Cabrera, as opposed to 'losing' the money to get average FA production.

 

 

The person who said these are 16 year old kids was making the point that....well.....they're 16 year old kids. Fine, they were right on Miguel Cabrera, but if the Major League draft is a crap shoot with regard to the 1st round picks, then imagine taking our all the 18 and 21 year old kids?

 

Would you argue the Brewers were right on Wolf? Lohse? Suppan? Looper? Gagne? Not saying any one player there is inherently a huge win or huge miss... but I see a lot of wasted money in FA contracts, & would rather see them invest more on youth signings.

[TheCrew07]

Up-To-Date International Bonus Pools For All 30 Teams

[TheCrew07]

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[TheCrew07]

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[TheCrew07]

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[TheCrew07]

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[TheCrew07]

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[TheCrew07]

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[nate82]

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http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view7/4809819/no-marbles-o.gif

[TheCrew07]

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[TheCrew07]

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[TheCrew07]

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