Aoki Trade Value

[JohnBriggs12]

For what it's worth, I don't believe Scooter Gennett will be a long-term 2B'man in MLB. I believe Milwaukee is getting a little too excited for a prospect that was probably in the 150-200 range in MiLB and played over his head when he got the chance. He doesn't do anything particularly well.

 

But that's just me.

 

Time will tell if he played "over his head" or not. Prospect lists are opinions based on projections, hardly a scientific measurement of future success. They are often wrong. Matt Carpenter never appeared on BA's top 100 list either. Was he playing "over his head too"? Tons of guys with great major league careers were never top 100 prospects.

 

I don't see people getting all that excited. Weeks has been awful the last 2 years. The bar isn't that high for Gennett to be better. He was a lot better in 2013. Let's see how he does. He's earned a shot.

[sheetskout]

For what it's worth, I don't believe Scooter Gennett will be a long-term 2B'man in MLB. I believe Milwaukee is getting a little too excited for a prospect that was probably in the 150-200 range in MiLB and played over his head when he got the chance. He doesn't do anything particularly well.

 

But that's just me.

 

Time will tell if he played "over his head" or not. Prospect lists are opinions based on projections, hardly a scientific measurement of future success. They are often wrong. Matt Carpenter never appeared on BA's top 100 list either. Was he playing "over his head too"? Tons of guys with great major league careers were never top 100 prospects.

 

I don't see people getting all that excited. Weeks has been awful the last 2 years. The bar isn't that high for Gennett to be better. He was a lot better in 2013. Let's see how he does. He's earned a shot.

 

Situations like Matt Carpenter in St. Louis happens once in a decade. Not exactly what I'd like to bet on especially in this market. And maybe over history there were examples of guys who weren't touted as prospects but had nice careers, but tell me, over the last five years, who would this apply to? (Seriously, I'm asking - lets name some. Cause I don't believe there's many, although maybe I'm overlooking some players)

[Warning Track Power]

Situations like Matt Carpenter in St. Louis happens once in a decade. Not exactly what I'd like to bet on especially in this market. And maybe over history there were examples of guys who weren't touted as prospects but had nice careers, but tell me, over the last five years, who would this apply to? (Seriously, I'm asking - lets name some. Cause I don't believe there's many, although maybe I'm overlooking some players)

My thought on Scooter is that if he could just be a similar hitter to Mark Loretta than he would be rock solid as our 2B moving forward. To your point, I don't think Loretta ever appeared on a Top 100 list and had a nice career.

 

Minor League Career

 

Scooter 2010-2013: .297 AVG/.337 OBP/.409 SLG

 

Loretta 1993-1996: .289 AVG/.350 OBP/.381 SLG

(Loretta had 74 additional MiLB ABs in 2000-2001, 2005)

[logan82]

If Gennett hits .280 with a .330 OBP

Considering his MiLB numbers that is a big if. His defense is also a big if. Having a lack of power will make it tougher to translate his skills to the MLB level on a consistent basis.

Huh?

 

Over his 4 seasons in the minors and his BA/OBP line are:

2010: .309/.354

2011: .300/.334

2012: .293/.330

2013: .280/.327

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gennet001rya

I am well aware of that. Like I said, having a lack of power will make it tougher to translate his skills to the MLB level on a consistent basis. That is why I care about the power. He is also trending downward as he goes up each level.

[Warning Track Power]

Combining his MLB and MiLB numbers last season he hit 9 HR, the same number he hit in 2010 and 2011. Scooter doesn't need to be a 10-15 HR guy to be successful.

 

My fear with Scooter isn't the power, its the lack of walks. I don't know if he can keep up a AVG of .297 (his MiLB AVG) in the majors and if he doesn't that will drop his .337 OBP. Scooter's value will really be seen if he can somehow develop his eye and have an Aoki-type slash (Aoki career slash of .286/.356).

[logan82]

I fear the lack of power because I think it will cause his walk rate to decrease further.

[sheetskout]

Combining his MLB and MiLB numbers last season he hit 9 HR, the same number he hit in 2010 and 2011. Scooter doesn't need to be a 10-15 HR guy to be successful.

.

 

Every 2B-man needs to hit 10-15 home runs to be successful (if they aren't Brandon Phillips with the glove or swiping 40+ bases).

 

On a division-contending team, anyhow. We had our Jim Gantners and Mark Lorrettas already. You know what happened when they were on the roster? We lost.

[Outlander]

? Gantner and Loretta were on division contending teams.

[brewcrewdue80]

Median 2b OPS among those that qualified.

13:.756 out of 20

12:.735 out of 22

11:.742 out of 20

10:.721 out of 20

09:.774 out of 25

08:.764 out of 23

07:.792 out of 33

06:.751 out of 29

 

So in the last 8 seasons the median qualified 2b comes to .754 on avg. Last 4 seasons .738

 

Will Gennett fall in that range? Well, playing in Miller Park I think so. If he were in a Pitchers ballpark he likely doesn't slg enough. Either way to look at it is that for the next 3-4seasons Milwaukee should have an avg MLB 2b. At the cost of maybe 3mil?

I'll take it over paying Weeks 10+mil a year.

 

Here's the list of top 6 qualified 2b in the last 4 years with # of times in parenthesis as well at their cost over those 4years

Cano(4-48mil) Pedroia (3-27.5mil) Kinsler (1-30.4mil) Zobrist (2-15.1mil) Weeks (2-27.2mil) Phillips (1-37.36mil) Hill (1-20mil) Prado (2-15.3mil) Walker (1-4.25) Carpenter (1-984k) Utley (2-60.5mil) Kipnis (1-991k) Lowrie (1-4.45mil) Uggla (1-43mil) Johnson (1-17mil)

 

6Player repeated being in the top 6 as you can see:Cano,Pedroia,Zobrist,Weeks,Prado, and Utley

Avg cost? 32.6mil over 4years. Oh and every single one of those 6 are being paid well above that this year.

15,11,11.5,7,12.5, and Cano with 17+ or around 13mil for a top 6 2b.

And yet here's Gennett going to make 500k to likely finish in the 12th best OPS at 2b. And look at that list of names making the big money. Cano,Pedroia,Zobrist are at least worth it. But Utley? Phillips? Uggla? And Prado. There's your template type 2b. His 162game avg is:

.293/.343/.432/.774 and just 13HRs 71RBI

I don't know about all this Gennett concern but that is worth 11mil today

And we are talking about Gennett being a .280/.330/.400/.730 2b with 9HRs who knows the RBI. I mean what more do you want? I'll take Gennett's cheap years of production to be what? 1/2 a tier below Prado? for 3mil over 33mil.

[JohnBriggs12]

10-15 HR per year is not unrealistic by any means for a guy who hit 9 in 3 of his 4 pro seasons at ages where his body wasn't even fully mature. Even if he's Gantner or Loretta in their primes I'd take him. Gantner was a cog on teams that won a ton of games, and my goodness, Loretta was a .295 career hitter who put up MVP like numbers in 2005 playing in San Diego of all places. His WAR that year was 6.0.

[JohnBriggs12]

For what it's worth, I don't believe Scooter Gennett will be a long-term 2B'man in MLB. I believe Milwaukee is getting a little too excited for a prospect that was probably in the 150-200 range in MiLB and played over his head when he got the chance. He doesn't do anything particularly well.

 

But that's just me.

 

Time will tell if he played "over his head" or not. Prospect lists are opinions based on projections, hardly a scientific measurement of future success. They are often wrong. Matt Carpenter never appeared on BA's top 100 list either. Was he playing "over his head too"? Tons of guys with great major league careers were never top 100 prospects.

 

I don't see people getting all that excited. Weeks has been awful the last 2 years. The bar isn't that high for Gennett to be better. He was a lot better in 2013. Let's see how he does. He's earned a shot.

 

Situations like Matt Carpenter in St. Louis happens once in a decade. Not exactly what I'd like to bet on especially in this market. And maybe over history there were examples of guys who weren't touted as prospects but had nice careers, but tell me, over the last five years, who would this apply to? (Seriously, I'm asking - lets name some. Cause I don't believe there's many, although maybe I'm overlooking some players)

 

Paul Goldschmidt was never on BA's top 100 list. I'm too busy to look up others, but there are plenty, particularly among 2B which doesn't get a lot of love on top prospect lists.

[sheetskout]

Paul Goldschmidt was never on BA's top 100 list. I'm too busy to look up others, but there are plenty, particularly among 2B which doesn't get a lot of love on top prospect lists.

 

Nice....you found....one.

 

The overriding point is that Gennett doesn't do anything well. You can field like Mark Ellis, and we'll overlook the power deficiency. You can hit like Chase Utley and we'll overlook the glove. You can run (and field) like Luis Castillo, and we'll overlook something else.

 

It's not probable to think Gennett will turn into an above-average MLB player with little supporting evidence. The same as it's improbable to think Jean Segura will stick at SS for the long-term. You can hope it happens, but if you bet money on it you'd be a fool.

 

(And yes, there are others. In fact, Robinson Cano I don't believe was ever a BA top-100 guy. I'm also not advocating BA's opinion as gospel, but Gennett-backers want to COMPLETELY discount scouting in the face of a bunch of late-season AB's - Not smart)

[CheeseheadInQC]

As was pointed out earlier, middle infielders are at a premium right now, with second basemen joining shortstops in that regard. At Fangraphs, they only have 16 2nd basemen accumulating 3 WAR total over the last two years, and Gennett's single partial season places him 23rd on that list. I'm not saying Gennett is going to be a star, but I could easily see him putting up Howie Kendrick-type numbers. That is pretty much average second base production these days, and at Gennett's salary, that's not bad at all.

 

As for the scouting reports, I could be wrong, but I thought Gennett's scouting reports had always been good average hitter, squares up enough balls to sneak 5-10 over the fence, could stand to walk more often. That's not really out of line with the .280/.330/.400 guess that brewcrewdue80 posted earlier.

 

Oh, and to add to the non-top 100, you're right on Cano and I don't think Zobrist ever even cracked his own team's top 10. Also, while not a star, if Gennett can give the Brewers the second-base equivalent of Lucroy's production, I'd be thrilled.

[monty57]

Aoki: I think Aoki should be traded, and I'd be thrilled if the Brewers could find a MLB ready, young SP for him, but I don't think it's likely. I'd guess that if they want upside, they'd have to take a good low-minors prospect. If they want MLB-ready, I think they'll get an older guy with similar ability and team control to Aoki, but at a position of need for the Brewers. I don't think the Brewers can take on salary, or else they could get an MLB guy with more talent than Aoki with a bigger money contract.

 

Personally, I hope they trade him for a highly-regarded guy in A/AA ball. Other than potentially 1B, I don't really see where "an older guy with similar talent to Aoki" would be a significant enough upgrade for the Brewers to bypass the potential to trade him for a high-upside prospect. Unfortunately, I would not be surprised if they trade him for a "proven" setup guy.

 

Gennett: He is the type guy I wished the Brewers would have utilized as a role-player when they had a playoff-caliber team. Instead, they went "all in" and wouldn't let guys of Gennett's ability anywhere near the MLB team. Because of the summed total of all the past moves, we are now in a position where guys of Gennett's ability will fill up a significant part of the roster now and into the future.

 

He should have a MLB career, especially while he's cheap. He's certainly a better option (considering price, age and ability) than Weeks, but unfortunately, we need to find a way to dump Weeks. Neither has the ability to play another position, so only one should be on the Brewers MLB roster. I hope they can find a taker for Weeks without having to eat the whole contract, and I hope that Gennett can prove to be a useful player. He should be able to provide some value to the Brewers for a low cost for a few seasons while the Brewers try to get out from under some of their big contracts and try to find some talent that will help them in the future. The Brewers should give him the chance to play his role, while they build up some talent in their minors so Gennett can be traded or let walk when he starts to become expensive and/or better internal options step forward.

[reillymcshane]

Aoki: I think Aoki should be traded, and I'd be thrilled if the Brewers could find a MLB ready, young SP for him, but I don't think it's likely. I'd guess that if they want upside, they'd have to take a good low-minors prospect. If they want MLB-ready, I think they'll get an older guy with similar ability and team control to Aoki, but at a position of need for the Brewers. I don't think the Brewers can take on salary, or else they could get an MLB guy with more talent than Aoki with a bigger money contract.

 

Personally, I hope they trade him for a highly-regarded guy in A/AA ball.

I don't think we are in the position to win any time soon, so I say you take the best prospect - even if he's in A ball. Would I like a great prospect in AAA? Sure. But it's not likely to happen for Aoki. The team should just shop him for the very best prospect they can get - no matter what level of ball or position.

[reillymcshane]

Scooter's inability to hit lefties very well is going to be a drag on him. The guy just flails at left handed pitches. Brutal to watch.

[logan82]

Aoki: I think Aoki should be traded, and I'd be thrilled if the Brewers could find a MLB ready, young SP for him, but I don't think it's likely. I'd guess that if they want upside, they'd have to take a good low-minors prospect. If they want MLB-ready, I think they'll get an older guy with similar ability and team control to Aoki, but at a position of need for the Brewers. I don't think the Brewers can take on salary, or else they could get an MLB guy with more talent than Aoki with a bigger money contract.

 

Personally, I hope they trade him for a highly-regarded guy in A/AA ball.

I don't think we are in the position to win any time soon, so I say you take the best prospect - even if he's in A ball. Would I like a great prospect in AAA? Sure. But it's not likely to happen for Aoki. The team should just shop him for the very best prospect they can get - no matter what level of ball or position.

I like that idea. Shop Aoki and take the best prospect offered. Starting Aoki over Davis or Davis over Aoki, neither is a good option.

[Warning Track Power]

If Aoki is dealt, I am fully expecting it to be in a package for a Hellickson type (first year or second year arby eligible player that is getting too expensive for a smaller market) as I think the Brewers FO believes a rotation of the following will put them in the thick of the playoff race:

 

Gallardo

Lohse

Peralta

Estrada

Hellickson-type

 

I am still holding out hope for a Ramirez-Aoki for a Ryan Dempster and Will Middlebrooks deal

[sheetskout]

If we were to get a Hellickson-type for Aoki, especially after yesterday, I would do cartwheels. Again, not probable in my mind. I would imagine it would be a prospect in the 120-140 range.

[danzig6767]

Paul Goldschmidt was never on BA's top 100 list. I'm too busy to look up others, but there are plenty, particularly among 2B which doesn't get a lot of love on top prospect lists.

 

Nice....you found....one.

 

The overriding point is that Gennett doesn't do anything well. You can field like Mark Ellis, and we'll overlook the power deficiency. You can hit like Chase Utley and we'll overlook the glove. You can run (and field) like Luis Castillo, and we'll overlook something else.

 

It's not probable to think Gennett will turn into an above-average MLB player with little supporting evidence. The same as it's improbable to think Jean Segura will stick at SS for the long-term. You can hope it happens, but if you bet money on it you'd be a fool.

 

Watching Segura play SS last year, i saw no reason to think he can't stick at that position.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm pretty sure I mentioned this already. But why not throw Aoki and Weeks to the Royals for Billy Butler? I would guess you have to throw about 5mil the Royals way. But both fill a need for KC especially Aoki.

 

I mean KC has been linked to Brandon Phillips rumors and now Mark Ellis. Besides the Carlos Beltran 3/48mil deal rumored.

 

Whatever money it took to get rid of Weeks to make that trade happen I would do it. 11 mil? Done. Just to have Butler manning 1b and proceed forward with Braun in RF Davis in LF and Gomez in CF. The lineup would be gut wrenching for opposing pitchers. Segura,Braun,Butler,Ramirez,Lucroy,Davis,Gomez,Gennett.

I mean with the projected lineup and talent base we have for now and maybe 2015 with Options picked up the deal makes perfect sense. It's a 2year window to win now all around with Lohse,Gallardo,ARam,then Butler to be around for 2015 and depart leaving the time to blow it up with Gomez/Braun trades prior to 2016.

It's just so sad to be a Brewerfan once again as here we sit and dream of some kind big move and last year it was extended Gomez and signing Lohse. No Trades...Okay Badenhop was acquired and now dealt away but nothing team defining. Not like Oakland,Texas,Det have done. Theres Zero Rumors out there of Brewers interest or Interest an a Brewer who seems available in trade. Once Again! And it's super annoying because as a fan I really haven't a clue where the team believes it is trying to direct itself to! Are we supposed Contenders? Or Pretenders? Haven't signed Hart yet but meanwhile Morneau goes off for 2/15mil! I'd have done that if I were Milwaukee believing we are Contenders. The only justifiable way to not do that move or anything is if Braun plays 1b next season. Aoki in RF and Davis in LF. And if that is your case then make it known already!

[Warning Track Power]

If we were to get a Hellickson-type for Aoki, especially after yesterday, I would do cartwheels. Again, not probable in my mind. I would imagine it would be a prospect in the 120-140 range.

I said this in my original post:

If Aoki is dealt, I am fully expecting it to be in a package for a Hellickson type

 

What I meant is the Brewers would package Aoki with either another MLBer or prospect/s for a Hellickson-type. I don't believe Aoki alone gets Hellickson.

[sheetskout]

Paul Goldschmidt was never on BA's top 100 list. I'm too busy to look up others, but there are plenty, particularly among 2B which doesn't get a lot of love on top prospect lists.

 

Nice....you found....one.

 

The overriding point is that Gennett doesn't do anything well. You can field like Mark Ellis, and we'll overlook the power deficiency. You can hit like Chase Utley and we'll overlook the glove. You can run (and field) like Luis Castillo, and we'll overlook something else.

 

It's not probable to think Gennett will turn into an above-average MLB player with little supporting evidence. The same as it's improbable to think Jean Segura will stick at SS for the long-term. You can hope it happens, but if you bet money on it you'd be a fool.

 

Watching Segura play SS last year, i saw no reason to think he can't stick at that position.

 

I hope I'm wrong but the statistics and professional scouting indicate otherwise.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Anyone else think sheetskout should change his username to debbiedowner?

[fleehaw]

People have discussed Ike Davis, but what about Lucas Duda from the Mets. He's a lefty that has hit RHP for about an .800 OPS for his career. He walks at a high rate and he'd likely hit for more power moving to Miller Park.