Aoki Trade Value

[brewcrewdue80]

MLBTR lists that San Diego is looking for a lefty bat and lefty reliever. Stating that Robbie Erlin may be the guy they offer to get that player.

 

Seems about the right deal for Aoki no? He was a bright looking prospect for SD until last season at AAA took a step back but still made it to the Big Club and his final 5 starts netted: 32IP 27H 7R 7ER 7BB 24K 1.97ERA 1.063WHIP

He's 23 so a very nice youth movement on to the Roster.

Reasonable?

[trwi7]

MLBTR lists that San Diego is looking for a lefty bat and lefty reliever. Stating that Robbie Erlin may be the guy they offer to get that player.

 

Seems about the right deal for Aoki no? He was a bright looking prospect for SD until last season at AAA took a step back but still made it to the Big Club and his final 5 starts netted: 32IP 27H 7R 7ER 7BB 24K 1.97ERA 1.063WHIP

He's 23 so a very nice youth movement on to the Roster.

Reasonable?

 

Done deal if the Padres agree to it. Not sure they would though.

[paul253]

Gennett shouldn't bat any higher than 7th. He shouldn't be getting a lot of PA's a year.

 

Why not? No offense but I can't stand attitudes like this. All the guy did in the minors was hit and people said he shouldn't play in the majors because he doesn't profile as a major league regular. Then, due to injury, he becomes a major league regular and, again, all he does is hit. I get it, he's small. He doesn't draw walks. He will never hit for much power. But give the guy some credit. A .324 average over 213 at bats for a rookie is damn good. Rickie Weeks has been a dud the last two years. He was never a very good hitter to begin with. Gennett deserves a chance. And honestly if he's hitting #2 ahead of Braun, Ramirez and Gomez he's going to see a lot of hittable pitches.

 

I think it's time we stop looking at what kind of player he profiles as and start looking at what kind of player he actually is.

[trwi7]

Expecting Gennett to hit .324 is ridiculous considering he hit .288 combined in the minors the last two years with an average OBP under .330 and a SLG% well under .400.

[MNBrew]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/al-notes-1.html

 

3rd bullet point down says TB is looking for a 1B. TB has come up previously in this thread. I wonder what kind of pitching we could get in return (Hellickson plus ?) for Aoki + Francisco, regardless if winter ball doesn't go well for JF but especially if it does.

 

That Padres note caught my eye, too, especially Aoki or JF (or both) for Erlin or Burch. Stults at age 33 doesn't do as much for me even though his career numbers aren't bad -- not for performance, mainly for age, meaning I think it's just the wrong direction to go for a return on a VERY affordable quality asset like Aoki.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think it's time we stop looking at what kind of player he profiles as and start looking at what kind of player he actually is.

 

And we have no clue what that is. Maldonado had 256 PA in 2012 and looked like he might have a good bat. In 2013 he put up 202 of the worst PA's Milwaukee has seen in years. Scooter could very well do the same.

[MNBrew]

I think it's time we stop looking at what kind of player he profiles as and start looking at what kind of player he actually is.

 

And we have no clue what that is. Maldonado had 256 PA in 2012 and looked like he might have a good bat. In 2013 he put up 202 of the worst PA's Milwaukee has seen in years. Scooter could very well do the same.

You're right, anything could happen, but that's not an apt comparison. Maldonado's 2012 big-league offensive output was very out-of-keeping with his minor league output except for 2011, whereas Gennett has hit at every level.

[TooLiveBrew]

Another thing to keep in mind wrt Gennett is that he displayed a pretty strong (& not surprising) split in favor of facing RHPs through his MiLB career. I could definitely see him being something like a .300/.350/.400 kind of bat v. RHP in the bigs over the seasons in which he'll be under Brewers control.

[JohnBriggs12]

Expecting Gennett to hit .324 is ridiculous considering he hit .288 combined in the minors the last two years with an average OBP under .330 and a SLG% well under .400.

 

Those minor league numbers don't include the .411/.470/.556 he hit in 90 AB's in the AFL in 2011. Gennett's not a big guy and he played nearly non stop from the beginning of 2011 season to spring of 2012. That likely affected his numbers (which weren't bad) in 2012. Unlike Davis, Gennett's also has always been slightly younger than most at the levels he's been at. He reached AAA before he turned 23 and did it on merit.

 

Forgetting the numbers, to me, he passes the eyeball test with flying colors. Looks a little to me like a LH version of young Paul Molitor. Molitor wasn't a big walk guy either.

[paul253]

Expecting Gennett to hit .324 is ridiculous considering he hit .288 combined in the minors the last two years with an average OBP under .330 and a SLG% well under .400.

Nobody is expecting him to do that. But again, I just don't understand why, even after watching him do it, people still act like he does not have the talent to be a major league regular. To be honest, I'd expect him over the course of a full season to hit somewhere around .270-.280 with maybe a .310-.320 OBP. Certainly not all star numbers but what the alternative? Rickie Weeks and his $11 million salary hitting under .240 for the third straight year? Go out and sign a free agent to play second base? Gennett is capable of being the every day second basemen. Ideally he'll hit better against lefties and learn to draw more walks but I see no reason to worry about him at this point.

[trwi7]

So you say that you expect him to have a .310-.320 OBP but don't understand why people don't want him batting higher than 7th? I don't care if he plays because he's cheap and we have no better options unless Weeks magically reverts to what he was a few years ago but he's not a very good hitter and once he stops being cheap/the team starts competing he's a player that you would be looking to replace.

[sheetskout]

Would Robbie Erlin be enough for Aoki if dealt to the Padres?

http://gradingonthecurve.com/2013/12/01/two-young-san-diego-padres-pitchers-block/

 

"writer Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune believes that the San Diego Padres are looking for left-handed hitting help as well as bullpen arms and are willing to deal a starter to get them."

[paul253]

So you say that you expect him to have a .310-.320 OBP but don't understand why people don't want him batting higher than 7th?

I think if he bats second both his BA and his OBP will be higher. He'll see better pitches.

 

but he's not a very good hitter

 

What is this based on? Certainly not what he's done in the minor leagues or his brief major league career. So it must be projections. Again, how long before we stop looking at projections and start looking at what he has actually done? For someone who is not a very good hitter he had much better numbers than both Segura and Aoki last season, though admittedly in only about half the at bats. Nobody is arguing that Segura and Aoki are not very good hitters.

 

and once he stops being cheap/the team starts competing he's a player that you would be looking to replace.

 

By the time he stops being cheap we'll have a much better idea of what kind of player he is. If he is not worth the money than hopefully we'll have a replacement for him.

 

Would Robbie Erlin be enough for Aoki if dealt to the Padres?

 

I know we need a lefty but just looking at the available pitchers it seems like Burch Smith has a higher upside. He had very good minor league numbers and at 23 could always head to Nashville to work on his secondary pitches. But I think this is probably about we can expect in return for Aoki.

[brewcrewdue80]

Can we designate all the Gennett talk to his own topic?

 

I for one would be thrilled to get Erlin for Aoki. We need that Pitching Depth and he's a darkhorse. Reads as a good changeup/Curveball. I feel more confident about him learning to make an adjustment to his FB especially from Lohse while already having the good secondary stuff. That vs the Flame thrower who needs to control and improve his secondary offerings. We know the results when only your FB is working(AxFord)

 

Between Lohse/Gallardo and their remaining contracts, Acquiring a young SP is a big step in the right direction. And I get the feeling Erlin could be a reliable #3/4 for the Brewers like a Shaun Marcum type numbers.

[logan82]

What is this based on? Certainly not what he's done in the minor leagues or his brief major league career.

Why look at projections? He hasn't really done anything to make people think he can hit well outside of a couple months in 2013. In fact he has been worse every time he was moved up until a fw good months in 2013.

 

Sub .700 OPS in the minors in 2013. A .714 OPS in 2012. A .740 OPS in 2011 at A+ ball. His biggest HR year was this year with 11 combined majors and minors. Hopefully he fills out a bit and develops some power but as of right now, he is a weak hitter.

[MNBrew]

If lack of power's the issue and not having too many good-BA/OBP-only hitters on the roster, then Gennett effectively takes Aoki's place if Aoki's traded.

 

Gennett's not a poor hitter, just not a power hitter. Not everyone's going to have a great OPS. As long as he hits well & gets on base at a gradually better rate, I don't care that he doesn't have much power. We've already dealt with too many of the guys with big OPS numbers that only hit HRs (Francisco!) and contribute next to nothing the rest of the time.

[paul253]

Gennett's not a poor hitter, just not a power hitter

I kind of wanted to stop the Gennett talk on the Aoki board but this is essentially my argument. Nobody is claiming that Gennett will be the next Miguel Cabrera but to say he is a bad hitter is just not true. Logan you seem to equate "bad" with "no power". You can't just look at OPS to determine how good of a hitter someone is, unless of course you want to argue that Juan Francisco had a better year offensively than Aoki did.

 

He hasn't really done anything to make people think he can hit well outside of a couple months in 2013.

 

Again, I just don't get this. In his WORST year in the minors he hit .280 with a .327 OBP, and that was only through 79 games while moving up and down between Milwaukee and Nashville. I'm sorry but even over the course of a full season those are not bad numbers.

[Warning Track Power]

If Gennett hits .280 with a .330 OBP, hits 8 -12 HRs, drives in 45 - 60 RBI and plays average to above average defense...Milwaukee say hello to your starting 2B for the next decade.

[sheetskout]

For what it's worth, I don't believe Scooter Gennett will be a long-term 2B'man in MLB. I believe Milwaukee is getting a little too excited for a prospect that was probably in the 150-200 range in MiLB and played over his head when he got the chance. He doesn't do anything particularly well.

 

But that's just me.

[logan82]

If Gennett hits .280 with a .330 OBP

Considering his MiLB numbers that is a big if. His defense is also a big if. Having a lack of power will make it tougher to translate his skills to the MLB level on a consistent basis.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Hey, how about aoki for Brett Anderson and cash(maybe around 8 mil). A's need to move him and his ground ball numbers would be great in Milwaukee.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hey, how about aoki for Brett Anderson and cash(maybe around 8 mil). A's need to move him and his ground ball numbers would be great in Milwaukee.

 

I seen they are looking to move Anderson and was thinking the same thing. Though, I think Anderson has higher value than Aoki especially considering the A's are set in the OF. It'd be one thing if Reddick batted from the Right hand side making Aoki a very Platoon worthy option over him. They also have Michael Choice as a 4th OF option who seems to fill what Aoki would essentially fill for Oakland.

 

Dang, thought for a moment there was going to be a match here but no really doesn't fit Oakland's needs while filling a huge need for us.

[Warning Track Power]

If Gennett hits .280 with a .330 OBP

Considering his MiLB numbers that is a big if. His defense is also a big if. Having a lack of power will make it tougher to translate his skills to the MLB level on a consistent basis.

Huh?

 

Over his 4 seasons in the minors and his BA/OBP line are:

2010: .309/.354

2011: .300/.334

2012: .293/.330

2013: .280/.327

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gennet001rya

[Kelbysdaddy]

I don't really think Anderson has more value then aoki. He's thrown less then 200 innings total over the last 3 years and is owed 20 mil over the next 2. The talent is there but is a huge injury risk.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's not that Kelby. I agree value wise Aoki and Anderson should be close to equal. But that is if Aoki is being slotted in to that teams every day roster. If he's a backup. Why trade potentially a 30-55Start SP for what amounts then to a 30-55Start Aoki? The deal would make sense for Oakland if this were midseason and Crisp/Reddick/ and or Choice are out for the season with an injury. But at this point Aoki becomes the 4th/5th OF for them. Meanwhile Anderson would immediately become the team's #2 or #3 SP for Milwaukee.

 

Now, take Rickie Weeks throw 8million Oakland's way and acquire Anderson? Trading away equal contracts/ player potential? That could be something Oak may consider before taking Aoki.