Aoki Trade Value

[JohnBriggs12]

Choo is way better than Aoki. 30 points of OBP and 60 points of SLG is a drastic difference. bWAR never passes the smell test. fWAR is probably more accurate. He is probably about an average player.

 

 

But he's getting paid like a well below average player, and that's where his trade value lies as the market is basically every team out there. That and his skills as a leadoff hitter. Leadoff hitters can be hard to find. I haven't done a real close analysis, but I have to believe Melvin will get inquiries on him. Melvin doesn't need to jump at any offer. All the potential internal replacements still have options.

 

If Boston loses Ellsbury to FA, that would seem to be a good fit assuming Victorino or Aoki could play CF. Aoki for Nava perhaps?

[jerichoholicninja]

A "leadoff hitter" is only in the eye of the manager. Put any guy with a high OBP in the 1 spot and you got a leadoff hitter.

[logan82]

His OBP is good but once you take into account his power he is only slightly above average at the plate.

[JohnBriggs12]

Aoki's numbers really don't tell the entire story. He's the kind of guy that when he's going well, really can get under the skin of a pitcher. He gets hits on pitcher's pitches and not many guys are capable of doing that in this age of home run or nothing. I think the Brewers can use Segura and Gennett at the top of the order, and be fine so he might have more value elsewhere.

[nate82]

I think the Brewers can use Segura and Gennett at the top of the order, and be fine so he might have more value elsewhere.

 

Gennett shouldn't bat any higher than 7th. He shouldn't be getting a lot of PA's a year.

[brewcrewdue80]

Choo is way better than Aoki. 30 points of OBP and 60 points of SLG is a drastic difference. bWAR never passes the smell test. fWAR is probably more accurate. He is probably about an average player.

 

For Comparison sake I'm looking at Choo from 2012 and Aoki of 2013

Aoki: .286/.356/.370 80Runs 8HRs 37RBI 20SBs 55/40 k/bb

This after a .288/.355/.433 81runs 10HRs 50RBI 30SB

1.5mil owed the next season

Choo 2012: .283/.373/.441 88Runs 16HRs 67RBI 21SBs 73/155 k/bb DH League

7.375mil owed the next season

 

You're getting 8-12HRs less in expectation for Aoki but the rest is the same across the line. Only Aoki keeps putting the Ball in Play vs. the difference in Ks for Choo. Yes Aoki's slg is down from the year before but is Aoki the player who hit 37 2bs in 2012 or the guy limited to 20 in 2013? What about Running in to a couple more HRs? 60pts is a difference in slg. that also is the difference in what Aoki slugged in 2012 vs. 2013. For such a player who's numbers across the line are eerily equal from the prior season aside from 2bs/and a couple HRs, can't one put Aoki to maybe be a .400 Slg hitter vs. the .370 of this season?

 

I just can't imagine there's not at least 1-4 managers out there who look at their leadoff hitting situation and not talk to the GM about finding an OB machine to put at the top of their lineup named Aoki? How would Kansas City have done if they Aoki in RF batting leadoff consistently for them this season with Gordon/Butler/Perez/Hosmer to follow? Instead they had Gordon leadoff majority of the time tried Escobar of .259OB bat 5times 1st/69times 2nd? Aoki would just be Mr you know what you're getting atop what should have been a potent lineup.

Baltimore had Nate Mcclouth Leadoff to a .258/.329 tune for them(Free Agent)

How bout a team like Seattle? RF needed. They had Brad Miller(.318ob) leadoff 67games, and Nick Franklin(.303OB) bat 2nd 59games. Talk about uncertainty night in/out on who's going to bat 1st/2nd. Just put Aoki there problem solved.

Cleveland Michael Bourn .263/.316/.360 Leadoff with Nick Swisher batting 2nd majority of the time. and Drew Stubbs RF? .233/.305/.360 Imagine if Cleveland had Aoki in RF and batting atop/2nd in their lineup as #2 for them was a shuffle it up and see for them.

I could also go with Pittsburgh but I believe their Prospect is going to graduate to the team next season.

 

Those 3 teams right there, if I were manager I'd be strongly saying hey if we're going to be a 90win team next season, how about that guy Aoki in Milwaukee? I could sure use a consistent Atop the order batter like him. Drove me nuts how futile my Leadoffs were this year.

 

Oh, btw Cincinnati and Choo atop the order this year? 698 runs Cincy last year with previously mentioned Drew Stubbs/Zack Cozart atop the order last season? 669runs.

 

I'd love to see Seattle go after Aoki. Talk to them maybe about Tyler Pike, or long term Bullpen guys/Spot Starters Stephen Pryor/Brandon Maurer. Not sexy gets, well Pike would be, but Pryor/Maurer are the type of guys I can see figuring some stuff out and contributing as a Starter or at the least being fairly dependable 2.5-3.2ERA bullpen guys who the team has control of for 5 more years.

[SoupTown]

Aoki is a great, great 4th outfielder for the Crew. Or he likely is a great leadoff / improvement for some other teams. Either way is a great outcome for the Crew.

[logan82]

For Comparison sake I'm looking at Choo from 2012 and Aoki of 2013

You need to look at the bigger sample instead of just picking and choosing what to look at. I was looking at their career lines. I am not saying Aoki might not be of some value in a trade but it looks like Choo is head and shoulders a better hitter.

 

.288/.389/.465/.854

.287/.355/.399/.754

[fleehaw]

I'd love to see Seattle go after Aoki. Talk to them maybe about Tyler Pike, or long term Bullpen guys/Spot Starters Stephen Pryor/Brandon Maurer. Not sexy gets, well Pike would be, but Pryor/Maurer are the type of guys I can see figuring some stuff out and contributing as a Starter or at the least being fairly dependable 2.5-3.2ERA bullpen guys who the team has control of for 5 more years.

 

How about Aoki for the Mariners Stephen Romero? Perhaps he could be a potential replacement for Ramirez in 2015? As a 24yo, he put up .779 OPS in 375 abs in AAA. No idea about his defense, but can apparently play 2B as well.

[endaround]

I think the Brewers can use Segura and Gennett at the top of the order, and be fine so he might have more value elsewhere.

 

Gennett shouldn't bat any higher than 7th. He shouldn't be getting a lot of PA's a year.

 

Well of course he shouldn't, but he'll hit 1st or 2nd.

[brewcrewdue80]

For Comparison sake I'm looking at Choo from 2012 and Aoki of 2013

You need to look at the bigger sample instead of just picking and choosing what to look at. I was looking at their career lines. I am not saying Aoki might not be of some value in a trade but it looks like Choo is head and shoulders a better hitter.

 

.288/.389/.465/.854

.287/.355/.399/.754

 

I picked 2012 numbers because that was what Choo did the year of being traded. As that I'm sure is what the buying team in a trade for Aoki is going to work their side the most.

You are also taking Choo's career numbers at his prime ages that of which Aoki doesn't have a history.

For Aoki's prime numbers and career his line apparently looks like this:

.329/.402/.454/.857

 

I'm not trying to say Choo isn't a better player, but for the most part their numbers aren't far off.

 

I said this somewhere else you can take a look at Ben Revere if need be and trading Trevor May for him. Or Denard Span and trading Alex Meyer for him. There's your about .700 OPS OFs to compare Aoki to with zero power but some Defensive skills. But both those guys are younger and had more than 1 season of team control.

I just look at those 3 trades and find Aoki to likely fall somewhere in that for trade value.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd love to see Seattle go after Aoki. Talk to them maybe about Tyler Pike, or long term Bullpen guys/Spot Starters Stephen Pryor/Brandon Maurer. Not sexy gets, well Pike would be, but Pryor/Maurer are the type of guys I can see figuring some stuff out and contributing as a Starter or at the least being fairly dependable 2.5-3.2ERA bullpen guys who the team has control of for 5 more years.

 

How about Aoki for the Mariners Stephen Romero? Perhaps he could be a potential replacement for Ramirez in 2015? As a 24yo, he put up .779 OPS in 375 abs in AAA. No idea about his defense, but can apparently play 2B as well.

 

But looking at Romero's stats this season Seattle played him at LF 73/93 games. With just 8 games in the infield 4 at 3b, 2 each at 1b/2b. But it is plausible. Brad Miller/Nick Franklin era for Seattle has begun 2b/SS. Whether Seattle believes he's capable to play the OF long term or sell him off to a team as a utility Middle infielder they just didn't have the room for remains to be seen. Personally I'd rather shoot for some kind of Pitcher in return for Aoki. Whether a SP or a RP.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the Brewers can use Segura and Gennett at the top of the order, and be fine so he might have more value elsewhere.

 

Gennett shouldn't bat any higher than 7th. He shouldn't be getting a lot of PA's a year.

 

 

Gennett might have 190 hits batting 2nd. I'm not comparing the two, but you might want to take a peak at Paul Molitor's rookie year: 19 walks in 556 PA. If a guys not prone to walk a lot anyway, batting him in front of Braun will still insure he'll get a lot of fastballs. Plus he'll often get to hit with a hole on the right side.

 

I still think Boston would be very interested in Aoki if they lose Ellsbury and they have guys, Carp or Nava, that the Brewers could use.

[trwi7]

If the Red Sox lose Ellsbury they'll probably just make Jackie Bradley Jr. the starter and sign a cheap, CF backup. And why would they trade Carp or Nava for Aoki? They both performed better than Aoki this year and they're under control for more than one year. That's taking a step back in production and in control of a player while also getting older.

[HiAndTight]

For Comparison sake I'm looking at Choo from 2012 and Aoki of 2013

You need to look at the bigger sample instead of just picking and choosing what to look at. I was looking at their career lines. I am not saying Aoki might not be of some value in a trade but it looks like Choo is head and shoulders a better hitter.

 

.288/.389/.465/.854

.287/.355/.399/.754

 

Absolutely. I'm on the other side of the Aoki argument as most, but to compare him to Choo is not a remotely valid comparison. Choo's a prototypical leadoff hitter.

 

Aoki however is a ideal 4th OF'er, and depending on how your team is built, could be a very useful starter. Choo is a very good leadoff hitter for virtually any team in the league. Offensively the two aren't even close. And the deal for Shoo was a lot more than just Bauer and Gregorious.

[HiAndTight]

Trade Gomez, keep Aoki, unless you like a strike out king who can run and catch in center. Gomez will regress, he already has. Trade him over the winter, someone will bite.

 

 

I actually love a guy who can run and catch in center, who can hit 25 HR's while playing exceptional defense.

 

And he will regress? From what? He's improved each of the last 5 seasons, though granted, he was pretty bad the first couple. And I couldn't care less about the strikeouts. Dude just put up an 8 WAR season. I can't tell you off the top of my head how many of those the Brewers have had in their history, but I'd venture a guess that it's fewer than 10. So if you mean he'll regress from having one of the best all around seasons in Brewers history, sure...I have no doubt he will.

 

The argument for trading Gomez is hardly, "he strikes out...someone will bite." Uhh..yeah, I'd hope someone would bite on what should be a Gold Glove CF'er who just had a 25/40, .843 OPS season at 27 years of age and has a VERY team friendly deal for the next 3 years.

 

 

Trading Aoki IMO shouldn't have ANY impact on trading Gomez IMO. You still just have Aoki for next year in that event. If you trade Gomez it's because you can get back a huge haul for him. I'm perfectly comfortable with the Brewers moving forward with Schafer IF you get back at least an elite prospect and a couple solid prospects back for Gomez.

 

But framing it as though we should move him just to move him and hoping someone will "bite," as though he's got negative value is absolutely absurd to me. Even if he regresses back to what he did last year, he's still a very valuable player.

 

He might be the funnest guy I've seen play for the Brewers. He's learned how to control his energy on the field, nobody looks like they're having more fun, and he strikes me as a guy who keeps it light in the clubhouse.

[Mr Southpaw]

I see "Bill Hall" written all over him. Just my opinion. You can have yours.

[Roderick]

I see "Bill Hall" written all over him. Just my opinion. You can have yours.

 

Bill Hall started downhill as soon as he got some money in his pocket. At least it doesn't appear that having money in his pocket has detrimentally affected Gomez play

[monty57]

Gomez has eliminated some but not all of the question marks around him. He is probably the best trading chip we have right now, and could get a couple of very good prospects for him, but I think there is zero chance he is traded by the Brewers. Regardless, I think H&T is right that trading Aoki should not impact trading Gomez. I think we should trade Aoki because we could get some decent talent for him and could replace him with guys who will make less and have a good chance of performing as well or better than Aoki. Gomez would only be traded if (A) we were blown away with an offer, (B) we are in a bigger financial crunch than even I think and/or © Attanasio completely reverses everything he's done with the Brewers and decides it's now time to start a major rebuild. In that case, trading Gomez would have more of a correlation with trading Lohse, Ramirez and Gallardo than it would in trading Aoki. In my opinion, Aoki should be traded regardless of what goes on with those guys... assuming of course that we could get something of value for him.

[sheetskout]

Can anyone come up with a better deal than Aoki for Porcello? Porcello is arby-eligible and will receive somewhere around 7 million. It seems to me the Tigers could use the friendly contract and have the leadoff hitter they need who doesn't strikeout. They could move Jackson down in the order.

 

I can't find a better fit for Aoki at this point. Ideas?

[brewcrewdue80]

Can anyone come up with a better deal than Aoki for Porcello? Porcello is arby-eligible and will receive somewhere around 7 million. It seems to me the Tigers could use the friendly contract and have the leadoff hitter they need who doesn't strikeout. They could move Jackson down in the order.

 

I can't find a better fit for Aoki at this point. Ideas?

Detroit has Castellanos/Jackson/Hunter for an OF next season to me I don't see why Detroit would add Aoki? Now, if Aoki was under control for 2015 then it makes sense since he'd be a 4th OF and maybe the starting OF in 2015 when Hunter's contract ends.

 

So my idea is working a deal with Kansas City sending Aoki and maybe Weeks for Billy Butler to play 1b.

 

We need a 1b bat like Butler's and KC needs that OF and 2b. Brewers probably have to throw in a BP guy to complete the deal but in the trade idea of Both teams get help where they need it world that trade would fit it.

[JohnBriggs12]

I still think the best match is Aoki to Boston. Boston is likely to lose their leadoff hitter Ellsbury, and Aoki possesses just the kind of skills that Boston covets. He fouls off a lot of pitches and uses the whole field. Now Aoki isn't the SB threat, and they'd have to move Victorino to CF, but that's not a huge stretch.

 

Brewers need help at 1B, and Boston could offer either Mike Carp, a natural 1B, or Daniel Nava, who played some their this year and is the added bonus of being a switch hitter. With the savings, Boston could re-sign Napoli.

[trwi7]

I still don't know why you think Boston would do that. They have Jackie Bradley Jr. who can replace Ellsbury, Nava and Carp are far better hitters than Aoki and under control longer as well. It makes no sense for Boston.

[TURBO]

In all seriousness, now that Aoki is scheduled for another bobblehead this season, I think that pretty much tells us what the Brewers plans are regarding Aoki and trading him. I'm sure the Promo dept. inquired before scheduling his bobble. If they were told to go ahead and do an Aoki bobble, odds are, he is staying.

 

Too bad Khris Davis, even though you had an excellent season, you are out of luck as far as being designated a starter for the 2014 season.

 

[TURBO]

 

So my idea is working a deal with Kansas City sending Aoki and maybe Weeks for Billy Butler to play 1b.

 

 

 

That would b excellent............................................for us.