Aoki Trade Value

[brewcrewdue80]

Melvin is a joke! What I just read about Aoki not being available, among Lohse or anyone else for that matter unless a team makes an offer for them? Yeah. Forget this year and this organization until Melvin is Axed. I'm out.

[TooLiveBrew]

Glad we're hanging on to a ________ with a little over a year left of control when we have a bunch of young _______ that would benefit from some playing time.

 

It's like a Mad Lib. A terrible, disappointing Mad Lib.

 

....

 

 

....

 

[pogokat]

i get the frustration, but the young outfielders are getting tons of opportunity to play with Braun out...and there's no reason you couldn't just rest aoki and gomez some over the next two months if you need to see more sub .600 ops hitting from our top prospects

[HiAndTight]

A question for those guys who are in the know about Minor League prospect valuation:

 

Does anyone think we could get Joey Gallo from Texas for Aoki?

Imo the easiest way to answer these questions is to always flip it around & ask yourself if you'd sell this player in exchange for 1+ season of this player.

 

In short, if I'm the Rangers, no I wouldn't consider moving Gallo for 1+ season of Aoki. If I'm moving a 1st/supplemental round pick who, at 19 years old is living up to his gigantic power potential in A-ball, I'd better be getting back a better return than 1+ seasons of a pretty average or replaceable corner outfielder.

 

 

Gallo? Maybe not, but you also drastically underestimate Aoki IMO. The Rangers may well lose their current RF'er for the last month+ and playoffs, and not every players impact can be adequately explained with WAR. Last year he was a 2.5 WAR player and what's the difference between this year and last year? Base running and his SLG pct? Is he "replaceable?" Yeah, I suppose, but I think he's a little bit underrated. I think he can be a VERY good leadoff or #2 hitter on a good team. And the Rangers have been using Profar in the 2 hole the few times I've had a chance to catch them with little success(though he's still a stud).

 

Not to mention the Rangers are a WS contender and Gallo is hitting .225/.311 though he does have very good power numbers. He's certainly younger and a much more promising prospect, but he's essentially Brock Kjeldgaard in size and his numbers(though he's putting those numbers up at a younger age). Just pointing out that I think Gallo is a big boom or bust type player.

[HiAndTight]

Melvin is a joke! What I just read about Aoki not being available, among Lohse or anyone else for that matter unless a team makes an offer for them? Yeah. Forget this year and this organization until Melvin is Axed. I'm out.

 

 

Seriously? Do you honestly think that everything Melvin says to the media is going to be accurate? Seriously. You think if he gets offered a good deal for John Axford, a guy who's likely going to be non-tendered, he won't take it? If you've followed baseball for any length of time, you have to be able to understand GM's aren't always going to be 100 pct forthcoming about their trades with the media.

[paul253]

i get the frustration, but the young outfielders are getting tons of opportunity to play with Braun out...

 

They are not getting nearly as much as they should. Right now you essentially have three young outfielders sharing one spot while Aoki and Gomez continue to play every day. I admit I don't watch the games as much as I did at the beginning of the year but I had to check the roster to make sure Davis was still even on the it before saying it was three outfielders.

 

and there's no reason you couldn't just rest aoki and gomez some over the next two months if you need to see more sub .600 ops hitting from our top prospects

 

Of course there's no reason why you can't rest Gomez and Aoki. And that's exactly why Roenecke will not rest them. Logan Schafer was finally starting to get some consistent playing time and was hitting a little better but oop....now we need to look at Caleb Gindl so back to the bench goes Schafer. God forbid Aoki sits for 3 or 4 games in a row because he's apparently part of the long term plan around here. And let's be sure to call up Khris Davis because he didn't get enough time on the bench his first couple of times around. He's gaining valuable "experience" sitting on the bench next to those big scary major leaguers. We don't want him to be intimidated in 2016 when the Brewers may need him to play every day.

 

Seriously? Do you honestly think that everything Melvin says to the media is going to be accurate? Seriously.

 

Every now and then Melvin will use that line "I'm not motivated to trade...." and then trade him. But that's far the exception to the rule. More often than not if he says he isn't going to trade someone he doesn't trade that person. Plus, if he actually says someone is not available they are probably not available. The last thing you want to do is confuse opposing GMs who may want to ask about that guy by telling media that he's not available. Not everything he says is meant to deceive other teams.

You think if he gets offered a good deal for John Axford, a guy who's likely going to be non-tendered, he won't take it?

 

Depends on how "good" the deal is. He'd trade Jean Segura if the deal is good enough. But he should be actively looking to trade Axford, not just waiting for a good enough offer to come along. Axford is either going to be gone or making WAY too much money next season. As far as I'm concerned, getting a relief prospect is better than hanging onto Axford, especially after watching his pathetic showing right now against Chicago.

 

I mentioned it in another thread but I'll mention it here as well. I think Melvin's time has come. We need a GM who understands how to run a small market franchise and Melvin just isn't that person. You have the 4th worst record in baseball right now and the only players you are willing to move are a couple of relievers? I agree with Brewcrewdude. That is a joke.

[Outlander]

if you need to see more sub .600 ops hitting from our top prospects

Well the Gindl/Davis combo is producing over a .900 ops right now, won't last that high but there are options if Aoki were to be traded.

[pogokat]

I'm aware that gindl and Davis are hot, I'm frustrated too... No matter how you slice it, there will be no more than one starting outfield job available in the next three years, so these guys need to distinguish themselves. Doug may be posturing. Doug may be planning on trading him in the offseason. Doug may think this team can win next year, etc...

[Warning Track Power]

My gosh...I know it is one game but the Brewers really should look into dealing Aoki and just going with the Gomez in CF with Gindl, Kh. Davis & Schafer rotating among the other 2 OF positions. I know AOki is cheap for 2014 but he should bring back a valuable piece, especially if he were to be packaged with say Henderson. Would love a Aoki/Henderson for Middlebrooks deal.

[monty57]

It's hard to see what you have in a player when he's only getting occasional playing time. Right now, Roenicke is trying to play the "hot hand" game with Gindl, Davis and Schafer. Unfortunately, that means the only way your getting a start is if you have a good pinch hit PA, which mean you'll start tomorrow while the other two guys sit, hoping that they get have a good pinch-hit PA so they'll get tomorrow's start. What a horrific way to "develop" someone, or even to learn something about them as a player.

 

It'd be a lot easier to see what we have in Gindl, Davis and Schafer if two of them were playing everyday. Of course, if we don't trade Aoki or Gomez, then our 2014 OF will be Braun, Gomez, and Aoki, so really Davis, Gindl and Schafer are fighting for the bench spot next year, and two of them are likely going to start next year in AAA, with a lot of other OFs moving up the ladder behind them. All three of these guys are MLB players. Whether that's in a backup role or a starting role is yet to be determined, but they have a good shot of helping determine that for the rest of this season and next year. Unfortunately, they won't get that chance because we'll block them by not trading our tradeable commodities when we have the chance.

 

OF is the one spot we have a lot of depth, so trading one or both of Aoki and Gomez makes a lot of sense. In my opinion, Aoki should be able to bring back a high-upside guy in the low minors - think something better than Delmonico (who I like). Gomez is having a great season and is young and under control for a few years, so he could bring back a couple of top prospects. Too bad we won't move either of them because Attanasio feels he has to try to maintain the perception that we're a good team.

[TURBO]

Staying with the possibility of getting rid of Melvin, I think a complete house cleaning is in order.

 

Get rid of Melvin, and it would be that much easier to can RRR as well. Frankly, I don't think that Attanasio has the guts to fire either of them. I think they are in it for the long haul, which leads me to believe that Mark A. is pretty disillusioned about the current team and management.

 

The way the OFers are being handled right now is beyond frustrating for me, it has entered the realm of being angry, damn angry, and I'm sick of it. With Braun out for the season we have the opportunity to make a bad situation good by seeing what we have.

 

These guys will not develop on our bench, and having them "hope" to get some playing time is just a ridiculous way to try and see what we have for the future. I feel bad for these guys being handled this way, they just can't get into any kind of rhythm to try and figure things out. What we really have is 3 outfielders that we can't get a good read on because they just aren't getting consistent playing time. Our manager is clueless. he is a complete doofus who no longer deserves the job. I have never made threats that I will stop following this team in the past, and there have been plenty of instances where I wanted to, but I just can't stand to see this guy in our manager uniform any longer. He is horrible, and that is putting it mildly.

 

I hate this season, and to be honest, I don't see it getting better in the future as long as RRR is managing this team. Most of my frustrations this season have been based on his managing style, not the fact that we have had multiple injuries, the Braun fiasco, etc... (Melvin entering the season with no 1B plan is a close second)

 

I just can't stand this any longer. I have been tuning in to games less frequently as of late, and that is very uncharacteristic of me as I have the game on every night without fail. Watching a post game presser with RRR is not even an option any longer if I want to keep my sanity.

 

For the love of God, please get rid of this idiot before next season so we can at least get a freash take on this team. That is all I ask.

[502 to Right]

When you start with the premise that the Brewers intend to make a playoff run in 2014, what options do they have for the OF logjam this year? Gomez is the starting CF and Aoki is the starting RF. They want to keep Aoki for 2014 because he's cheap and they know he's an above average hitter at the MLB level. Shaefer, Davis, and Gindl will either split time, or one or more will send back to AAA. And it's not like any of Shaefer, Davis or Gindl are the second coming of Ryan Braun.

[igor67]

Aoki has been a nice bat, but both Gindl and Davis could provide solid OBP and better power than Aoki. If you like what you see the remainder of the year I think you deal Aoki in the offseason and play the kids.

[trwi7]

They want to keep Aoki for 2014 because he's cheap and they know he's an above average hitter at the MLB level.

 

Is he? This year his OPS+ is 100, his wOBA is .324 and his wRC+ is 104. That's the very definition of average.

[monty57]

When you start with the premise that the Brewers intend to make a playoff run in 2014, what options do they have for the OF logjam this year?

 

When you start with the premise that you are going to win the Powerball, why should you save for things like retirement and your kids' college education?

 

I'd rather start with a reasonable premise that doesn't defy the odds and create a plan based in reality. Attanasio would rather try to dupe the fans into thinking we're "going for it" so that he can sell tickets, because they guaranteed a lot of obligations, and if people stop buying tickets, the owners' group is set to lose a lot of money next year. Plus, there is trained behavior, and Attanasio realizes that if people who have been buying tickets stop buying tickets, it will be hard to get them back.

[JohnBriggs12]

Attanasio did not become a near billionaire being stupid. The Brewers don't have the luxury the Cubs had to do a tear down and rebuild. Miller Park is a nice place, but it's not the museum piece that Wrigley is that attracts people regardless of the product on the field nor can the Brewers afford to lose huge parts of their television audience.

 

Even in the good years, the Brewers are always "on the edge", where key injuries mean a fall to oblivion. That's the nature of a small market franchise. There's still a product to sell and to think the owner isn't going to try and sell it is ridiculous. They can put a much better product on the field in 2014. Can they contend? Yes they can. Can they be bad? Yes they can.

[igor67]

I cry fowl on the Powerball analogy. A playoff run in the 2 wildcard era is not even close to that wildly improbable. I'd ballpark without any major moves that the Brewers would have about a 20% of making the playoffs in some fashion given the true talent level. Not great by any stretch, but not something to be dismissed as a flight of fancy. On point the more Gindl and Davis keep hitting (would be nice if Logan could dial it up) the more it makes sense to deal Aoki one way or another.

[monty57]

I cry fowl on the Powerball analogy.

 

Are you calling me chicken? :-)

 

A playoff run in the 2 wildcard era is not even close to that wildly improbable. I'd ballpark without any major moves that the Brewers would have about a 20% of making the playoffs in some fashion given the true talent level.

 

The analogy was to show that the odds are stacked against it. Of course, with only 30 teams, even the Astros have better than 1-in-a-hundred-million (or whatever Powerball is) chance to win, but you still need to look at the odds. Like the people I know who don't save money, but buy lottery tickets and dream about what they would do with the money, operating without a valid plan generally leads to misery. Instead of ending up with no money for retirement, college, or whatever, when the time's up on the Brewers, they simply look like they do right now, with a bad MLB team, and a bad farm system.

 

When the chances are pretty unrealistic, I would prefer to look more to the future rather than further harming the future by "going for it" in a year when the odds of reaching "it" are pretty long. It's all about planning, and I think that's lacking with the Brewers, who much more worried about today than they are about tomorrow. Attanasio's belief is that fans need "name" players, either ones who spend their career with the Brewers or "name" free agents who the fans have heard of. Unfortunately, the Brewers don't have limitless resources, so the attempt to acquire and maintain players the fans relate to has caused a greater and greater percentage of payroll to funnel to a smaller and smaller group of players. Now, we're in a bind because a few players take up most of the payroll, we don't have the prospects to fill in the gaps, and team management is facing the reality that fans are likely to stop tuning in/buying tickets because of poor play, now compounded with the Braun fiasco.

 

So, they could have "salary dumped" a couple of guys, but chose not to, probably due to fear of losing fans. Maybe it's just that other teams realize that the players who get touted here as being "good trade chips" are really not very valuable. Because we're going to go into 2014 with a team eerily similar to this year's roster, we are now going to be barraged with stories of how unfortunate we are, and how we really are a playoff team... just be sure to re-up your season tickets so you don't miss out on the surprise Brewers of 2014. What they won't relate is that if you don't spend your hard-earned money to watch the likely-non-playoff-bound-2014 Brewers, the owners will have to dig tens of millions out of their own pockets.

 

On point the more Gindl and Davis keep hitting (would be nice if Logan could dial it up) the more it makes sense to deal Aoki one way or another.

 

I would hope that the success or failure over a few MLB plate appearances would not matter much to the Brewers, who have had the luxury of seeing them post several yeas' worth of plate appearances in the minors. They should have a pretty good idea whether or not they are MLB players before they ever reach the MLB level. Unfortunately, it seems that at least Roenicke deems a handful of MLB PAs to be far more important than years of minor league play.

 

If you could get similar RF production from some combo of our prospects as you would get from Aoki, and if you could trade Aoki for someone who could help the Brewers (for league minimum with six years of control) down the road, then you would win, even if Aoki does really well for the team we trade him to. Now, it's possible that the team feels none of their "MLB ready" OF prospects are actually any good, but that doesn't seem probable, as all of them look capable of playing at the MLB level. More likely, they are once again going to make a futile attempt at "going for it," will once again fail, and will once again have foregone a chance to improve their future in order to maintain the perception amongst the fans that they are have a chance to win now.

 

While I've spent countless hours following this team over the past 40 years, I decided a week or so ago to stop tuning in. Somewhat surprisingly, I've found it pretty easy to stop watching them. It looks to me like they're trying to pull the wool over the fans' eyes to get them to continue to spend their money on the Brewers. I've given them enough. Now they'll have to earn my time and money back, and the way this management operates, I doubt it will happen soon. Maybe enough fans will "tune out" and the Brewers will be forced to change. I don't know, I can only control my own actions.

[igor67]

I bought the success cycle Kool-aid for many years, but as a model it is far too simplistic to actually run teams. Either you 'go for it' or trade off everything not nailed down for the future. Given the evidence of prospects actually available on the trade market over the last few years I see a lot less value in trading for hordes of them then I used too. This is why I think it is important to not lose sight of the value of fielding a solid team next year. Without looking up and calculating the salaries for next year let's assume for the moment that the Brewers can spend 10 million dollars on free agents in the offseason without losing money. Given the international and draft rules I see little reason not to spend all that money and say improve the teams chances by 5%. The flipside is that to say deal away Lohse would require a pretty healthy degree of talent to make up for what I'd ballpark as a 10% drop in playoff chances next year. With these as rough guides to my thinking I just do not see a lot of dealing veterans for prospect deals being worthwhile in the offseason. Aoki stands as a potential exception because of the potential to replace him internally.

[monty57]

I'd say "simple" is making the easy moves to appease some fans instead of developing a meaningful long-term strategy.

 

I had a long post written, but I'm tired of the same argument. If someone wants to believe that running a business without a plan is a good idea, then that person will love the Brewers' "management."

 

If actually looking up the salaries (which are already conveniently put into a spreadsheet by the good people of Cot's) is too much work, and the numerous posts I have written breaking down the upcoming obligations haven't swayed you, then feel free to believe that the Brewers have all kinds of financial flexibility going forward. I disagree.

 

I lived through too many years of the Seligs feeding us "Kool-Aid," pretending they were trying to compete so that they could sell tickets. I'm not going to listen to the "new owner" doing the same thing. Unfortunately, I think the only thing that will change his mind is for fans to stop giving him their money. I can't support poor management any longer.

[igor67]

Monty your response completely missed the mark and shows that in fact you completely missed the novelty of my argument. You might feel like your having the same argument, but that is because you are stuck interpreting a world where the only plan is win now or burn it to the ground. Further I never said or implied anything about lacking a plan. I didn't look up the salaries because the number was completely immaterial to my argument. The Brewers could be at max payroll already, and it wouldn't change the point that dealing a guy for 'prospects' just because there is a low playoff chance shows a lack of planning. Those prospects have to bring back substantial value to make up for torching a veterans value to next year's playoff chances. The playoff world is very different than it was the vast majority of the Selig years. The Brewers would have also made the playoffs in 78, 79, 80, 87, 88, 92 under the current rules and a larger number of seasons they were within a couple of games of making it. With the current rules there are very few ways to try and divert money from payroll into prospects. The player development money is pretty much capped and it is relatively small compared to the major league budget. If a team loses a trade that talent leaves and is very hard to replace other than out scouting the other teams under the current rules. The cap system is working to a certain extent as intended, there are more competitive teams every year and fewer juggernauts.

[TooLiveBrew]

You might feel like your having the same argument, but that is because you are stuck interpreting a world where the only plan is win now or burn it to the ground.

The irony, of course, is that you've completely missed monty's approach. He (in fact, I can't think of any posters on this site who are) isn't an advocate of a black or white approach where you either do nothing or trade everyone for the (presumably) numerous offsprings of Ruben Quevedo, Alex Sanchez, & Wes Helms. Monty has repeatedly laid out well-researched, well-thought-out, & well-argued posts on why the Brewers' approach under Melvin & Attanasio has directly led the franchise to this point where a larger rebuild is the best course of action.

 

But, you know, let's keep spinning these wheels where anyone advocating a different approach has to explain it six ways to Sunday in the MLB, MiLB, & Transactions forums... and then those who see it as heresy can revert to the usual retorts: 'You don't get it' / 'This isn't fantasy baseball' / 'You don't know what offers were turned down or what players weren't available ' / 'I guess you didn't like seeing the Brewers make the playoffs' / etc. To contend in the next couple of seasons, all the Brewers need to do is trade for two ace SPs, and upgrade at 3 of the 8 positional spots -- they totally have the prospects & cash assets to make that happen soon!

 

Lather, rinse, repeat. This discussion on BF has gone almost literally nowhere over the course of the last 3-4 years of Brewers baseball. It's not even worth discussing anymore.

[adambr2]

I'm 100% with Monty on this one. 2008 was the last year that I felt this organization had a long-term, reasonable plan for success in the future. Because they had such a solid foundation, they were able to sustain bad contracts like Suppan and Hall and still put themselves in a position or success. The current franchise operates with almost no margin for error. Missing on FA deals, with no solid farm system to support it, can lead to disaster.

 

The long-term plans have since been replaced by shorter, more impulsive plans. While the 2011 plan was a very strong move towards that short-term plan, we do now have to deal with the consequences now that the Greinke/Marcum era has passed.

 

Not only are we already last in the division, but every division rival of ours has a much better farm system. The Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals have top 5 systems. I can't invent reasons how we are going to be in a position to overtake them anytime in the near future with these situations. The math just isn't in our favor.

 

Yet, the writing is already on the wall for next year. They're going to try to sell you that Gallardo will rebound, and paired with Lohse, an improved Peralta and Thornburg, and perhaps a FA acquisition, the rotation should rebound nicely. They're going to sell you that the lineup is going to feature a healthy Ramirez, and the return of Braun centerpieced around Gomez and Segura. They're going to sell you that the bullpen has already taken a huge step and hope you will believe that will continue.

 

Most fans will buy it, because they want to believe that a winner is coming, and the odds are that around this time next year, we'll be having this same conversation, talking about what went wrong and why we're continuing to be dominated by division rivals with more patience, better farm systems with better scouting, drafting, and development, and far superior planning.

 

And the FO will already be thinking about how they can convince you that 2015 is our year.

[igor67]

I noticed adam that Cincy was not on your list of superior farm systems. Yet they have been on the list of we aren't as well prepared as x lists for the last couple of years. The other teams will have their moment in the sun as well. Or as I like to think about it think about how short the various windows have been for teams that went the prospect route the last 15 years. Tampa is getting close to standing out as the exemplar yet they built their foundation on years of top draft picks and as a recent baseball prospectus article ( http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21393 )showed have kept it going with ridiculously one-sided trades. They basically generate an All-star every year on trade activity. The same article showed Melvin does pretty well on value, though not on that level, and furthermore showed a negative correlation between trade value and trade volume. Considering that Amaro and Dombrowski are the only 2 other GMs who have done as well as Tampa in trades I see little evidence that Tampa trade victories are anything other than shrewd trading and some luck. Which means a lot of weighing of value generally not a mysterious long term plan, which the data shows Melvin has done OK at. When long term planning in a competitive environment you need to find ways to get better value than ones competitors, which Melvin has demonstrated vs. his competitors. The draft rules and international signing rules have significantly changed the strategies to out draft and develop teams. It is pretty much a straight-up race to out evaluate everyone else no fancy strategic moves are left. Further since it is such a regimented system budget is largely irrelevant and the evidence clearly shows a much greater reluctance to part with prospects in trade I see very little chance of accumulating overwhelming waves of talent. Brewerfan grew up in an environment where there was a much freer flow of talent in between majors and minors. One could sacrifice talent in one for the other by budget resources and trades both avenues now seem at best dramatically reduced. I also think we have a decent model of someone who has been operating a long term plan under these constraints, Beane. It no longer looks like loading up on minor leaguers instead you try to draft the best players you can and accumulate the best major league squad you can every year with whatever options are available. Given their payroll the results have predictably been pretty bad most of the time, but some years things go your way. Importantly it also tends to put a much shorter time horizon on moves. Certainly one tries to understand future implications, but by placing so many rules on how teams can operate it means that more and more of the team variation from year to year will be luck based! The rational move is a higher discount then on future value in many ways. So no this is not an argument over any of the things listed in the posts above, I submit that the only viable long term plan is to draft the best players you can, and focus on getting the best total value you can in trades, waiver wire, and free agents. And too many that will look like a short term year to year plan even if it is not. You don't fold a bad hand in poker until the risks outweigh the rewards. The marketing of the team should not be mistaken for the team building strategy.

 

Another interesting data point to look at is that the only time in Brewers history where they would have gone on extended playoffless streaks was when they where an expansion team at first, and then when they went super cheap on the payroll post 1992 (and even that streak could have been broken up by some decent luck on the health of D'amico and Eldred). Things are going to have more of the NFL type feel where teams pop in and out of the picture more often now. So yes there are times to take a hit to next year's playoff chances to improve the future, but there currently few other GMs are providing a lot of those opportunities in trades.

[monty57]

The Brewers could be at max payroll already, and it wouldn't change the point that dealing a guy for 'prospects' just because there is a low playoff chance shows a lack of planning.

 

Yes, arbitrarily signing someone and then arbitrarily trading that someone (for nothing because it was a bad signing) is the epitome of working without a plan. That's what our "management" attempted to do with Lohse. They said they were not going to trade Lohse unless they could get talent equivalent to the first rounder they gave up, and no one bit on that. Repeat: no one was willing to give the Brewers the equivalent of a first round draft pick for Lohse... because of his contract (taking him to an age in which almost every starting pitcher to ever play the game is retired) he has little to no trade value. If we wanted to get rid of him, it would have had to be in a salary dump trade, which looks bad to the fans. But that's just one move, and our team unfortunately is the aggregate of all the moves made and not made in the recent past. That's why I don't like arguing the merits of one move, because it has to be viewed in a vacuum.

 

We don't operate in a vacuum. People say we're "going for it" in 2014 because we have a shot. I think we're "going for it" next year (in a PR sense only) because no one would offer us anything of value for our too-old, too-expensive, too-underperforming, and/or too-injured "trading chips," and "management" is unwilling to move the few pieces that may have some value. Our "management" put this franchise together, so there is no one to blame but them. They are now in a position where they can either salary dump, or they can try to make a showing of "going for it" next year. Attanasio is so worried about ticket sales and losing fans that either dumping salary or trading a "fan favorite" with value like Gomez are not things he's willing to do. So, when he couldn't get any value back for the bad contracts he and Melvin have amassed, he is left with only one option, and that is to try to sell the fans on the idea that we've just been unlucky and that we really are a playoff caliber team.

 

I understand your argument, but I think you fully miss mine if you think that I'm a proponent of "win now or burn it to the ground." That is pretty much the opposite of everything I stand for. I own and run two businesses. Every day, I come into the office and think "things are going pretty well, but how can they be better tomorrow, next year and into the future." I have a seven year old, and a two year old, and I try to envision how they can someday take over what I've started, and how it can be far better for them at that point than it is for me now. In other words, I would never sacrifice the future for the present, and I only think "tearing it down" is an option now because the bad moves made over the past few seasons have forced the Brewers into the position where it may be the only valid option. That is what saddens me. This was easy to see coming, could easily have been avoided, but instead "management" kept making things worse.

 

That is why I say they have no long-term plan. When they had the opportunity to build the franchise for continual success, they chose a two year plan and we're now on the backside of that two years. That's why I say they have bad management, and unfortunately, when the bad management seems to be coming from the owner, I don't see how it will change other than for the fans to stop showing up. Taking a big hit in the wallet is probably the only thing that will cause Attanasio to change tack and run the team like the small/mid-market team it is instead of the Yankees, which we are not.