Aoki Trade Value

[fondybrewfan]

Olt appears to have fallen off a little this year. While Aoki certainly wouldn't be enough to get him he definitely is not untouchable anymore. Melvin could put a package together to get him if he really wanted

[Warning Track Power]

Aoki and Axford for Olt +?

[jjfanec]

Aoki and Axford for Olt +?

 

If that would be enough we should pull the trigger in a second. Olt had vision problems early on so I doubt Texas will give up on him.

[markedman5]

"Some scouts see Gallardo as a No. 4 starter in the American League, maybe a 3 in the NL, writes Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. The Rangers recently lost ace Yu Darvish to the DL for a strained trapezius muscle, which is currently considered a minor issue."

 

So our ace is a No. 4 starter in the AL and a No. 3 in the NL.........pretty much explains the season in a nutshell

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm thinking the Rangers make a move at Aoki.

 

Good call. Reports of the Rangers being interested in Aoki on mlbtraderumors today

 

[]

 

Thanks. It should be the first of a number of rumors for Aoki. He can flat out hit for pennies on the dollar. The pennies on the dollar is worth a C+ to B-Prospect alone. And then Aoki himself I said is worth a B Prospect. Maybe he nabs a B+ prospect due to competition.

 

I'm concerned that I'm reading in the comments on the MLBTR that Melvin

 

"Is asking for players that will help the team in 2014"

 

WTH! Gone! Fire Melvin! This pi@#es me off to change tactic from 2-3 years away to asking for immediate help in 2014.

 

That to me means the return in trade is strictly ML ready C prospects. Nothing special but useful players. If these players were capable of helping their team's in 2014 with an impact, then they certainly shouldn't be made available....Unless those prospects are B+ trending towards C like Skaggs or Olt and the DBacks/Rangers are actually selling high today vs. lower in the future with continued decline.

 

Or, God help us, the team isn't even trading for prospects anymore. But like the Atl/Arz. trade a ML vet. is acquired like Chris Johnson/Martin Prado. First it was not signing Lohse and playing our young pitching. To signing Lohse. Then it was Prospects 2years away to now trading for players for next season?

 

Melvin. You're an idiot. You have no plan laid out on how to run an organization. You simply fly it by the seat of your pants....Reacting....Vs. being Proactive with a future outlook in all the decisions you make.

[TheCrew07]

I wouldn't get too worked up about what Melvin says, what he says and what he does are usually 2 different things.

 

Until he demonstrates a willingness to retool/reload (note that I'm not talking about a full blow rebuild and never have) with at least 2 trades for legitimate impact talent I will remain a skeptic.

 

He had to sell Greinke last year because there was no chance of resigning him and the player made that situation very clear for him.

[brewcrewdue80]

I wouldn't get too worked up about what Melvin says, what he says and what he does are usually 2 different things.

 

Until he demonstrates a willingness to retool/reload (note that I'm not talking about a full blow rebuild and never have) with at least 2 trades for legitimate impact talent I will remain a skeptic.

 

He had to sell Greinke last year because there was no chance of resigning him and the player made that situation very clear for him.

 

Well what he says and what he does is two things. Except he's now stated both what he wants to do in trade that is possible. ML ready prospects or 2-3years away prospects.

So this means he's going to trade for Veterans with 1-2years team control left with that logic

[RockCoCougars]

I might do Aoki for Olt straight up, but I'm not sure. Olt has been brutal in the minors this season with a ridiculous strikeout rate. This with the corrected vision, so I'm not sure what the excuse is now, but I'm not sold on the guy.

 

At any rate, if the Rangers want to deal, they had better be ready to part with some talent, unlike last year. Otherwise, they can go pound sand.

[brewcrewdue80]

Olt I think should be frowned at. I'd take Gallo over him if we have to go with 30%+K hitters.

Since he's been up from his vision problem. 46ks in 115PAs. including 14 in last 31. 20BBs. .234 BA with 7HRs. He's 25 years old. Trading for him results in age 26-31 seasons for Milwaukee out of him. And that's with him likely have a 2-3year learning curve with his vision and K problem. So the moment he's truly ready to produce as a ML hitter, he's a year removed from his prime?

 

And his vision wasn't corrected. He takes eyedrops to help it out. So let's look at it in a worse projection. What if his vision worsens from something underlying yet to be diagnosed? What if Mike Olt's career ends the moment it's supposed to begin due to this problem?

 

Why, would we want that risk? This isn't an aged 20yr old player with the talent of Manny Machado we're talking about. He's 25 with more questions than one should have to entertain at this point.

I would almost wonder on taking a bet that Olt doesn't play another 200 ML games from this point forward. Because once he busts it's only going to last 1 year before he's given up on.

[jerichoholicninja]

Olt is Gamel at this point. There's some potential there but not worth another team giving up anything for.

[reillymcshane]

 

 

I'm concerned that I'm reading in the comments on the MLBTR that Melvin

 

"Is asking for players that will help the team in 2014"

 

WTH! Gone! Fire Melvin! This pi@#es me off to change tactic from 2-3 years away to asking for immediate help in 2014.

 

 

I agree with this. It kills me. We aren't going to contend in 2014. Be realistic. A good prospect is a good prospect, I don't care what the level of ball.

 

Quite frankly, at this stage of the franchise, I want to acquire the guy in A ball who has a chance to be great over the guy at AAA who has a chance to be good.

 

Of course, if there's a great prospect at AAA who we can get, that's awesome. But we shouldn't be afraid of grabbing lower level guys if it's in the best, long term interest of the club.

[kalle8]

aoki has 10 SB and 10 CS. (in 2012 30/8)

 

he's losing velocity (and power perhaps) is a surely concern for the suitors.

[Invader3K]

aoki has 10 SB and 10 CS. (in 2012 30/8)

 

he's losing velocity

 

I know this is more a language thing (not picking on you at all kalle), but I just sort of like this phrasing for some reason.

[fleehaw]

Olt is Gamel at this point. There's some potential there but not worth another team giving up anything for.

 

Olt is still a top 50 prospect and IIRC is above average defensively at 3B. Some of the shine has come off of him, but some sort of Olt/Francisco platoon next year could be very productive for the Brewers. Assuming they deal Ramirez.

 

If the Brewers could nab an extra nugget like Font, I'd make that deal in a heartbeat.

[Invader3K]

Olt is putting up a .710 OPS in the minors so far this season, and that's combined between 220 ABs at AAA and AA. He should be nothing more than a throw in with better prospects right now. I certainly wouldn't trade Aoki straight up for him right now.

[fleehaw]

He's had a terrible April apparently due to an eye issue (.471 OPS, 72 ABs). After recovering, he had a very nice June (.883 OPS, 102 Abs) and is following that up with a very bad half of July to date (.557 OPS, 34 ABs).

 

I think he's an interesting buy low candidate. Prior to the start of this year, would Aoki been able to land Olt? Perhaps, perhaps not.

 

If the Brewers do trade Aoki to the Rangers and Olt is the lesser/one of the lesser prospects coming to the Brewers, I certainly wouldn't complain.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think Olt is the answer. Despite his high ratings, he's never done anything above AA and he turns 25 in August. That hardly says "can't miss" to me. Yeah he's got some pop, but he strikes out a ton.

 

At best he'd be a platoon partner for Francisco and late inning defensive replacement at 3B, but that's assuming they can move Ramirez, which I don't think will happen. Otherwise, he'd be sitting down at Nashville for 2014.

 

Aoki is too valuable and cheap to just unload for a flier on a one time top prospect.

[brewmann04]

I rather get pitching for anyone we trade unless we can find a can't miss 3rb prospect.

[kalle8]

aoki has 10 SB and 10 CS. (in 2012 30/8)

 

he's losing velocity

 

I know this is more a language thing (not picking on you at all kalle), but I just sort of like this phrasing for some reason.

 

 

ahhaha, should I have written "speed"?

the fact is i think in italian and then traslate with ilarious (...) results.

 

the italian for speed is "velocità", so here it is...

 

by the way, i don't think Aoki will ever get Olt to the Brewers.

 

 

i understand he's in some kind of regressing in his top prospect status but the Brewers couldn't get him last year with Greinke.

 

edit: (and thank God we got Segura Pena and Hellweg, but when Jean he arrived to the Brewers he was a 2nd baseman after failing at SS)

[TooLiveBrew]

aoki has 10 SB and 10 CS. (in 2012 30/8)

 

he's losing velocity

 

I know this is more a language thing (not picking on you at all kalle), but I just sort of like this phrasing for some reason.

 

 

ahhaha, should I have written "speed"?

the fact is i think in italian and then traslate with ilarious (...) results.

 

the italian for speed is "velocità", so here it is...

Yep, "speed" would refer to how fast someone can run. "Velocity" is used to refer to how hard a pitcher can throw a baseball.

 

Of course, you could also say "pitch speed" & that would mean the same thing as "velocity" -- I'm sure you enjoy all the not-hard-to-understand-at-all details of the English language, Kalle!

[Oxy]

Yeah, there is nothing wrong with saying he is losing velocity. It's just unorthodox. I could see a very experienced english speaker and writer using phrasing like that just to be a little different--yet when a novice uses that type of phrasing we chuckle a little bit. People are funny.

[nate82]

If the Rangers just want Aoki I would want Neil Ramirez and C.J. Edwards.

 

If the Rangers want Aoki and Gallardo then I want Neil Ramirez, C.J. Edwards, Luke Jackson and Rougned Odor. I'm not sold on Olt being a productive MLB player and I am definitely not sold on Gallo being an everyday player.

[brewcrewdue80]

If the Rangers just want Aoki I would want Neil Ramirez and C.J. Edwards.

 

If the Rangers want Aoki and Gallardo then I want Neil Ramirez, C.J. Edwards, Luke Jackson and Rougned Odor. I'm not sold on Olt being a productive MLB player and I am definitely not sold on Gallo being an everyday player.

 

Based on current rankings in Texas' system you are taking on pretty much #s 8-15 range. Why Odor vs. Sardinas? I can see the current numbers comparison Odor is indeed ahead while being almost 1 year younger. But, Sardinas is 6'1" 160 to Odor's 5'11" 170. To me that leaves Sardinas with fillout to come on his frame. Whether that leads to more "Pop" in his bat or not is tbd but it's something to consider currently when side by side comparisons between the two.

As to the Pitching, From what I can read thus far, Jackson,Ramirez, and Edwards are kinda underdogs overachieving than what their ability would dictate. Producing solid #3 numbers for guys who may be #3 or 4s in the future but not 2s. I can't even find C.J. Edwards on Scouting Book.

I just look at it as, eh, for Pitching. Reading MLB.com preseason writeups none of Texas' Pitchers ranked above Average all 4s with 5 potential except..#20:Victor Payano

Scouting Grades* (present/future): Fastball: 6/6 | Curveball: 5/6 | Changeup: 4/5 | Control: 4/5 | Overall: 4/6

When you're 6-foot-6 and left-handed, you're going to get noticed. When you have a fastball that can touch 96 mph, you have the chance to go a long way in this game. Payano's numbers have yet to completely catch up to his potential, but his upside is considerable. Along with that fastball, Payano has an overhand curve that should be a plus pitch and he has a feel for a changeup as well. He's getting better at throwing strikes and is still working on consistently repeating his delivery. When that happens, the sky might be the limit.

6'6" 185 currently and 20yrs. old in A+ball. I'd take the upside of him over any of the others because that is what the Brewers need to find. Guys that can exceed #3 potential. If we can't find a pitcher that comes with #2 potential, then I'm not really all for it unless those #3s are packaged with a high Upside Bat instead.

[nate82]

If the Rangers just want Aoki I would want Neil Ramirez and C.J. Edwards.

 

If the Rangers want Aoki and Gallardo then I want Neil Ramirez, C.J. Edwards, Luke Jackson and Rougned Odor. I'm not sold on Olt being a productive MLB player and I am definitely not sold on Gallo being an everyday player.

 

Based on current rankings in Texas' system you are taking on pretty much #s 8-15 range. Why Odor vs. Sardinas? I can see the current numbers comparison Odor is indeed ahead while being almost 1 year younger. But, Sardinas is 6'1" 160 to Odor's 5'11" 170. To me that leaves Sardinas with fillout to come on his frame. Whether that leads to more "Pop" in his bat or not is tbd but it's something to consider currently when side by side comparisons between the two.

As to the Pitching, From what I can read thus far, Jackson,Ramirez, and Edwards are kinda underdogs overachieving than what their ability would dictate. Producing solid #3 numbers for guys who may be #3 or 4s in the future but not 2s. I can't even find C.J. Edwards on Scouting Book.

I just look at it as, eh, for Pitching. Reading MLB.com preseason writeups none of Texas' Pitchers ranked above Average all 4s with 5 potential except..#20:Victor Payano

Scouting Grades* (present/future): Fastball: 6/6 | Curveball: 5/6 | Changeup: 4/5 | Control: 4/5 | Overall: 4/6

When you're 6-foot-6 and left-handed, you're going to get noticed. When you have a fastball that can touch 96 mph, you have the chance to go a long way in this game. Payano's numbers have yet to completely catch up to his potential, but his upside is considerable. Along with that fastball, Payano has an overhand curve that should be a plus pitch and he has a feel for a changeup as well. He's getting better at throwing strikes and is still working on consistently repeating his delivery. When that happens, the sky might be the limit.

6'6" 185 currently and 20yrs. old in A+ball. I'd take the upside of him over any of the others because that is what the Brewers need to find. Guys that can exceed #3 potential. If we can't find a pitcher that comes with #2 potential, then I'm not really all for it unless those #3s are packaged with a high Upside Bat instead.

 

Neil Ramirez profiles as a #2 but his floor is at a #3 or 4 type of a pitcher depending on how his secondary pitches develop. Some scouting reports really like his change up and others call it an average pitch. His curveball is an above average pitch and his fastball is an average to above average pitch.

 

Luke Jackson profiles as a #1 with ace potential. He has electric stuff but again if his secondary pitches don't improve he is probably a #4 or 5 type of a pitcher.

 

C.J. Edwards from baseball prospectus: “He's a long, lanky, athletic guy with a really fast arm. He's up to 95 mph, he has feel for what he's doing, and the curveball is really good.” Of course, for a relative unknown with just 10 games of professional experience, projection is a dangerous thing, but the upside is impressive. “You don't know what he's going to be, but you can dream on him,” concluded the scout.

 

Edwards stuff is Ace potential but his floor is out of baseball at any time. Edwards currently has a 1.95 ERA in A with a 11.6 K/9.

 

I like Odor as he reminds me a lot of Segura. He is also younger and is already out slugging Sardinas.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

Neil Ramirez profiles as a #2 but his floor is at a #3 or 4 type of a pitcher depending on how his secondary pitches develop. Some scouting reports really like his change up and others call it an average pitch. His curveball is an above average pitch and his fastball is an average to above average pitch.

 

Luke Jackson profiles as a #1 with ace potential. He has electric stuff but again if his secondary pitches don't improve he is probably a #4 or 5 type of a pitcher.

 

C.J. Edwards from baseball prospectus: “He's a long, lanky, athletic guy with a really fast arm. He's up to 95 mph, he has feel for what he's doing, and the curveball is really good.” Of course, for a relative unknown with just 10 games of professional experience, projection is a dangerous thing, but the upside is impressive. “You don't know what he's going to be, but you can dream on him,” concluded the scout.

 

Edwards stuff is Ace potential but his floor is out of baseball at any time. Edwards currently has a 1.95 ERA in A with a 11.6 K/9.

 

I like Odor as he reminds me a lot of Segura. He is also younger and is already out slugging Sardinas.

 

If Edwards has Ace Potential why was he drafted in the 48th rd.? Why isn't he even on Scouting Book? It sounds like Edwards has a quirky delivery which is deceptive? Something that as he progresses may result in less positive results with more polished hitters.

Jackson Ace Potential? I'm trying to find that kind of statement regarding him.

7. Luke Jackson – RHP (12)

I admit, even with a complex and often times varied delivery, I can’t get past my affinity for Jackson’s leveraged fastball that sits in the 93-94 mph range and touches 98 mph on occasion. His fastball can overpower hitters and at times he shows an ability to live in the lower third of the zone, making it difficult to lift. His curveball has plus potential as a quality second pitch and while his change-up is well below-average, he is willing to mix it in at times. Jackson profiles as more of a fourth starter for me, relying heavily on two pitches and there are scouts that believe he could excel as a setup man. From March this year.

http://www.sallyleaguejournal.com/2012/08/19/luke-jackson-scouting-report-w-video/

Another:I see a ceiling as a 3 starter with him likely ending up a 4 or 5. This was a year ago almost though.

 

Off of Minor League Blog:

2. Luke Jackson, SP (Myrtle Beach Pelicans) — 2010 Draft, 1st round, 45th overall, Rangers No. 11

 

What he did: 8-4, 2.30 ERA, 74 K/34 BB in 70 1/3 innings. The 21-year-old right-hander far and away leads the league in ERA and can boast being one of the category’s few leaders who has also registered a strikeout an inning. He’s built nicely on his 2012 showing, which saw him strike out 146 in 129 2/3 frames across two levels (including Myrtle Beach).

 

Where he might rank now: Most of the Rangers’ top 10 wouldn’t deserve to drop, but he can probably leapfrog one or two spots.

 

If he's an Ace potential I'd expect him to be ranked immediately behind Profar. He has a 4.5ish BB/9 and it hasn't improved at any level. To me he reads off as Yovani. #2 upside but value is really as #3. Nothing reads as Ace #1 potential.