Aoki Trade Value

[brewcrewdue80]

People have discussed Ike Davis, but what about Lucas Duda from the Mets. He's a lefty that has hit RHP for about an .800 OPS for his career. He walks at a high rate and he'd likely hit for more power moving to Miller Park.

 

I think the Mets see him at 1b above the headaches of Davis. He's why Davis is available. It'd take more to get Duda than to get Davis who has the better potential.

[MNBrew]

I hope I'm wrong but the statistics and professional scouting indicate otherwise.

I'm not sure why you feel the scouting insights you've heard -- and I'm guessing these, like most, were BEFORE the Brewers traded for him -- automatically carry more weight than the opinions of the Brewers' front office, who are extremely experienced and who see him play everyday.

 

Stats are great and worthy of so much of the clout they carry throughout sports, but they can be independent and therefore also ignorant of the eyeball-obvious, which is not devoid of truth.

[logan82]

I hope I'm wrong but the statistics and professional scouting indicate otherwise.

I'm not sure why you feel the scouting insights you've heard -- and I'm guessing these, like most, were BEFORE the Brewers traded for him -- automatically carry more weight than the opinions of the Brewers' front office, who are extremely experienced and who see him play everyday.

 

Stats are great and worthy of so much of the clout they carry throughout sports, but they can be independent and therefore also ignorant of the eyeball-obvious, which is not devoid of truth.

The Brewers signed Yuni after having him play for them for an entire year.

[sveumrules]

Even coming off of TJ there is no package we could put together that gets Dylan Bundy.

 

While Aoki lacks the power typically associated with "corner outfielders" he has the perfect mix of OBP and high contact rate that teams look for in a "top of the order hitter", so he fits that role well at least. Combine that with one year at a cheap salary and I think he should bring something back.

 

I'd target KC and ask for one of their many arby eligible relievers as they need a 3rd outfielder to go with Cain/Gordon and got poor OBP out of their top two lineup spots this year.

 

Looks like we got the Fresh Prince, Will Smith. Not even eligible for Arby's yet. Thanks Nori, and let's go Khris.

[MNBrew]

I hope I'm wrong but the statistics and professional scouting indicate otherwise.

I'm not sure why you feel the scouting insights you've heard -- and I'm guessing these, like most, were BEFORE the Brewers traded for him -- automatically carry more weight than the opinions of the Brewers' front office, who are extremely experienced and who see him play everyday.

 

Stats are great and worthy of so much of the clout they carry throughout sports, but they can be independent and therefore also ignorant of the eyeball-obvious, which is not devoid of truth.

The Brewers signed Yuni after having him play for them for an entire year.

That's one negative. If that's all it takes to offset all the positives, that simply reveals a very jaded perspective.

[logan82]

It was a really stupid move.

[MNBrew]

Sure it was. But looking at the totality of Melvin's moves over his decade or whatever in MIL, I still feel there's far more reason to trust him than to view every scenario with a default mistrust.

[danzig6767]

I hope I'm wrong but the statistics and professional scouting indicate otherwise.

I'm not sure why you feel the scouting insights you've heard -- and I'm guessing these, like most, were BEFORE the Brewers traded for him -- automatically carry more weight than the opinions of the Brewers' front office, who are extremely experienced and who see him play everyday.

 

Stats are great and worthy of so much of the clout they carry throughout sports, but they can be independent and therefore also ignorant of the eyeball-obvious, which is not devoid of truth.

 

The Brewers signed Yuni after having him play for them for an entire year.

 

The difference between those two for me is i never needed stats to tell me that Yuni was terrible as a shortstop. Simply watching him play for a little while showed that he had zero range and was a lazy defender. On the flip side, Segura had vastly superior range and he certainly has enough arm to play shortstop.

 

In fact, even after Sugera started the first few months hitting so well, i was as much or more pleasantly surprised by how well his defense was than the hitting given he had only switched to shortstop the year prior.

[endaround]

Can title now be changed to the Scooter Gennett thread with Aoki gone?

 

Paul Goldschmidt was never on BA's top 100 list. I'm too busy to look up others, but there are plenty, particularly among 2B which doesn't get a lot of love on top prospect lists.

I hope I'm wrong but the statistics and professional scouting indicate otherwise.

 

Which stats are you looking at? All advanced stats that I've seen had Segura as a comfortably above average glove as SS last year, somewhere in the 5 to 8 runs range. Though certain Braves shortstops might soon make averages meaningless and we'll have to look at medians....

[logan82]

Sure it was. But looking at the totality of Melvin's moves over his decade or whatever in MIL, I still feel there's far more reason to trust him than to view every scenario with a default mistrust.

Melvin's entire history is the reason to mistrust him. Where are we now as a franchise compared to when he took over. The first few years it was great but recently he has been trading away the future over and over again for the present. He did the same thing in Texas.

[MNBrew]

Sure it was. But looking at the totality of Melvin's moves over his decade or whatever in MIL, I still feel there's far more reason to trust him than to view every scenario with a default mistrust.

Melvin's entire history is the reason to mistrust him. Where are we now as a franchise compared to when he took over. The first few years it was great but recently he has been trading away the future over and over again for the present. He did the same thing in Texas.

I don't think you could ever be convinced that Melvin's done anything positive. You're great at ripping what he's done. What would you have done?

 

In most cases Melvin's trades have gotten rid of lesser assets for better or more usable ones. In the very few cases he's gone for a major upgrade by trading a decent amount of young talent (Linebrink, Sabathia, Greinke, & Marcum trades), almost everyone he's given up hasn't proven to have much if any serious major league staying power and there's no reason to think they would've panned out any differently had they stayed in the Brewers' system. But you're saying the Brewers' organization would've been better off keeping all those young guys, most of whom never amounted to much? Sorry, but other than the Linebrink trade, I think those moves still panned out pretty well for the Crew.

 

The guy who's clearly done the best overall after those trades is Joe Thatcher, an Indy league signing who's only a role-filling BP lefty -- just the type most folks would agree is easily & annually replaceable. Cain, Escobar, & Brantley, have done alright, but Cain's been hurt a lot, Escobar can still field but not hit with any consistency, and it took Brantley another 3-4 years after that trade to start playing consistently well -- and Brantley arguably doesn't bring much different to the table than Aoki, who we got for peanuts and whom we paid peanuts. In the meantime, we've had comparable guys to those last 3 come up through our system (or via trade in Segura's case) and show just as much if not more promise.

 

It just seems Melvin could GM the Brewers through 5 straight World Series and cure cancer along the way and you'd still be standing firm that he sucks at his job.

[TooLiveBrew]

The guy who's clearly done the best overall after those trades is Joe Thatcher, an Indy league signing who's only a role-filling BP lefty -- just the type most folks would agree is easily & annually replaceable. Cain, Escobar, & Brantley, have done alright, but Cain's been hurt a lot, Escobar can still field but not hit with any consistency, and it took Brantley another 3-4 years after that trade to start playing consistently well -- and Brantley arguably doesn't bring much different to the table than Aoki, who we got for peanuts and whom we paid peanuts. In the meantime, we've had comparable guys to those last 3 come up through our system (or via trade in Segura's case) and show just as much if not more promise.

 

It just seems Melvin could GM the Brewers through 5 straight World Series and cure cancer along the way and you'd still be standing firm that he sucks at his job.

While I can appreciate how you're analyzing the trades, no matter what was traded away, what was returned was all short-term fixes -- and that is always the core of the disagreement in this discussion, not how the players the Brewers traded away went on to do. And at the times of the deals, the pieces the Brewers sent were legit & not simply the fodder they've mostly turned out to be with several years of hindsight.

 

In other words (for an example), instead of trading for two seasons of Marcum, the move could've been to trade Lawrie for a young arm that would be Brewers property for 5 seasons or more. Clearly, to Melvin's credit, in the Aoki deal he did a nice job finding this kind of an opportunity. I'm sure plenty of posters could take the time to go back & find a decent suggestion of a young, cost-controlled pitcher that Lawrie might have been able to return. Frankly, you could come up with a few decent hypotheticals if you're willing to go back & look things over from that timeframe.

[JohnBriggs12]

Sorry but if you are going to bring up the Marcum for Lawrie deal it needs to be in context. That deal was done BEFORE the Greinke deal at a time Melvin had no idea he'd also land Grienke. I'm certain that if the Greinke deal had already happened, they hang on to Lawrie and that deal never happens. That team went on to win 96 games, a club record. Clearly the time was right to go "all in" so to 2nd guess him over that is reaching. Melvin can be questioned over a number of things he's done, drafting, some managerial selections, a long term contract here and there, a questionable FA signing,and the occasional trade gone bad, but over 11 seasons, anyone in that job is going to have both pluses and minuses on his record. He's also done a lot of positives, some that I didn't always agree with at the time but turned out fine too.

[logan82]

But you're saying the Brewers' organization would've been better off keeping all those young guys, most of whom never amounted to much?

No, I am saying he should have traded for more long term solutions instead of fixing things for a couple years at a time. I think he is shortsighted which is fine for a team that drafts well or a team with lots of money to spend. We are neither right now.

[danzig6767]

The guy who's clearly done the best overall after those trades is Joe Thatcher, an Indy league signing who's only a role-filling BP lefty -- just the type most folks would agree is easily & annually replaceable. Cain, Escobar, & Brantley, have done alright, but Cain's been hurt a lot, Escobar can still field but not hit with any consistency, and it took Brantley another 3-4 years after that trade to start playing consistently well -- and Brantley arguably doesn't bring much different to the table than Aoki, who we got for peanuts and whom we paid peanuts. In the meantime, we've had comparable guys to those last 3 come up through our system (or via trade in Segura's case) and show just as much if not more promise.

 

It just seems Melvin could GM the Brewers through 5 straight World Series and cure cancer along the way and you'd still be standing firm that he sucks at his job.

While I can appreciate how you're analyzing the trades, no matter what was traded away, what was returned was all short-term fixes -- and that is always the core of the disagreement in this discussion, not how the players the Brewers traded away went on to do. And at the times of the deals, the pieces the Brewers sent were legit & not simply the fodder they've mostly turned out to be with several years of hindsight.

 

In other words (for an example), instead of trading for two seasons of Marcum, the move could've been to trade Lawrie for a young arm that would be Brewers property for 5 seasons or more. Clearly, to Melvin's credit, in the Aoki deal he did a nice job finding this kind of an opportunity. I'm sure plenty of posters could take the time to go back & find a decent suggestion of a young, cost-controlled pitcher that Lawrie might have been able to return. Frankly, you could come up with a few decent hypotheticals if you're willing to go back & look things over from that timeframe.

 

How much of those trades were about Attanasio wanting to win now and hopefully make the playoffs as much as Melvin did?

 

Between listening to the things Attanasio has been saying over the years about his desire to win now whenever possible and the aggressive approach he's taken by himself in negotiating contracts for Suppan, Ramirez, and Loshe, it seems pretty clear to me that he's quite involved in the decision making process of the team. In the direction he wants the team to go into from year to year.

 

Obviously i don't have the ear of either Attanasio/Melvin to where i can know exactly just how much influence our owner has on moves made, but it would be hard to believe that he's a mostly sit on the sidelines type of owner as some are. If i had to guess though, it would be that when say Melvin would let Attanasio know that guys like Sabbathia, Marcum, and Greinke were available, that he was very excited at the idea of trying to get them. On the flip side, if Doug were to tell Attanasio this offseason that he could land some prospects for say Gomez and Lohse, that Attanasio would be much more skeptical of that being a good idea unless convinced that those prospects were either can't miss or could help the team win this year as much or close to as much as Gomez/Lohse could.

 

That is why i think Mark likes Melvin a lot. As an owner he's almost always going to prefer trying to win in the now and Melvin is like minded. Not that both or either are oblivious to the need of cheap quality talent regularly being cycled in given the Milwaukee market size, but when push comes to shove, they'll view their roster from year to year as having at least a decent chance to compete for a playoff berth after some tweaks, unless it would be utterly ridiculous the believe so and thus moves are usually made in that thought process.

[logan82]

In other words, welcome to mediocrity.

[Woozee]

There are a lot of other good ways to get great prospects then just trading top tier players....