Aoki Trade Value

[brewcrewdue80]

With news that Aoki is a free agent after next season, time to discuss the reality of what the Brewers can command in return for Aoki.

 

Aoki stands as a 2.0WAR player currently on the season and that's with a negative impact on baserunning bringing it down. He's the toughest strikeout victim in all of baseball. OB% over .350. Adequate defensively. All things that many a competing team can use in replacement of struggling RFs they have.

 

Teams with use of Aoki:

Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh

San Francisco

Arizona

Kansas City

NY Yankees

Cleveland

Texas

San Diego

 

That makes Aoki either our top trading piece or 2nd best behind Gallardo.

 

 

Trade thoughts/fits?

 

Tampa trades Enny Romero and Blake Snell for Aoki?

Pittsburgh trades Luis Heredia and Tyler Glasnow for Aoki?

Giants trade Chris Stratton for Aoki?

DBacks trades Chris Owings and David Holmberg for Aoki?

Kansas City trades Yordana Ventura for Aoki?

Yankees don't have anyone I find compatible

Cleveland trade Trevor Bauer for Aoki? or nothing else compatible

Texas trades Mike Olt for Aoki?

San Diego Trades Matthew Wisler and Zach Eflin or Joe Ross for Aoki?

[markedman5]

I doubt he has as much value as you think he has but if I'm Melvin I defintely shop him.

[TooLiveBrew]

Trade thoughts/fits?

 

Tampa trades Enny Romero and Blake Snell for Aoki?

Pittsburgh trades Luis Heredia and Tyler Glasnow for Aoki?

Giants trade Chris Stratton for Aoki?

DBacks trades Chris Owings and David Holmberg for Aoki?

Kansas City trades Yordana Ventura for Aoki?

Yankees don't have anyone I find compatible

Cleveland trade Trevor Bauer for Aoki? or nothing else compatible

Texas trades Mike Olt for Aoki?

San Diego Trades Matthew Wisler and Zach Eflin or Joe Ross for Aoki?

If you were the acquiring team, would you agree to any of these deals? That's probably the easiest quick-and-dirty way to analyze what Aoki's value is/should be.

 

Aoki's MLB career OPS is .768, and this season so far it's .733. Adding in the fact that he's basically just average on defense leaves me not expecting to get much for 1.5 seasons of him. That's just not very special production at a corner OF spot. His cheap salaries will help his value, however.

[Bnowell4evr]

The team that makes the most sense to me is the Padres. Will Venable is starting in RF with a Yuni like .265 OBP. Say what you want about Nori's power but his OBP is about 100 points higher than Venable's and he's versatile enough to play CF. Throw in not being a rental and his cheap contract and it should be enough to snag a highly regarded arm as the featured part of the trade.

 

I think people are undervaluing Aoki a bit in this thread. He's not a superstar but he should be able to bring back at least what a reliever like Mike Adams brought back in a trade a few years ago. If the Padres can get Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlan then why can't Aoki bring back a package headlined by one of Matt Wisler, Zach Eflin or Joe Ross?

[brewcrewdue80]

Trade thoughts/fits?

 

Tampa trades Enny Romero and Blake Snell for Aoki?

Pittsburgh trades Luis Heredia and Tyler Glasnow for Aoki?

Giants trade Chris Stratton for Aoki?

DBacks trades Chris Owings and David Holmberg for Aoki?

Kansas City trades Yordana Ventura for Aoki?

Yankees don't have anyone I find compatible

Cleveland trade Trevor Bauer for Aoki? or nothing else compatible

Texas trades Mike Olt for Aoki?

San Diego Trades Matthew Wisler and Zach Eflin or Joe Ross for Aoki?

If you were the acquiring team, would you agree to any of these deals? That's probably the easiest quick-and-dirty way to analyze what Aoki's value is/should be.

 

Aoki's MLB career OPS is .768, and this season so far it's .733. Adding in the fact that he's basically just average on defense leaves me not expecting to get much for 1.5 seasons of him. That's just not very special production at a corner OF spot. His cheap salaries will help his value, however.

 

I don't know if these teams would do my trade suggestion. My guess is the small market teams would overpay more for Aoki in value since it comes with a cheap pricetag.

I think Tampa would do the deal

I think Pittsburgh could do the deal though maybe not Heredia some other prospect with Glasnow like Kingham.

With Cleveland and Texas it's more or less bigger named prospects that have regressed in value. Olt is 24 turning 25next season. He has 6years of team control remaining no matter if he makes the club next or not his clock has been started. Bauer has the stuff, not the results. Maybe he's never going to see the results come and be a quick flame out.

 

As to San Diego, it's to be determined what they do at the deadline.

 

Certain teams like Pitt/Tampa/SD/KC/Texas these teams have a need for today and next season but then when Aoki becomes a FA should have a suitable Prospect to replace Aoki with. I think that adds value to Aoki. His rental time suits a number of Playoff Caliber teams who could use him until their future RF prospects project to make it to the ML roster.

 

And then it's at that time I'd imagine Aoki as a Free Agent becomes a 4th/5th OF to platoon or be used as insurance for a team with these prospects. At least if as you show his OPS continues to fall as he ages next season and projects to fall again then in 2015.

[PrinceEatMeat]

San Francisco is the best fit in my opinion. Need an OF and a leadoff hitter with Pagan hurt.

[TooLiveBrew]

I could also see the Pirates as a legit destination. I think a postseason appearance would have a lot of significance in Steeltown, much like it did here in 2008. They might be more motivated to make a move.

[TheCrew07]

I like the Pirates pitching much more than the Giants, I'd take Glasnow and Kingham in a heartbeat for Aoki. Heck I'd take one of them.

[brewcrewdue80]

I like the Pirates pitching much more than the Giants, I'd take Glasnow and Kingham in a heartbeat for Aoki. Heck I'd take one of them.

 

That's good to hear from you Crew. I like to think that Aoki fits the Pirates the best for this season and next season's run for Pittsburgh. Cheap top of the order bat.

Pittsburgh's strength in the farm is Pitching. Cole,Taillon,Heredia. I believe they can afford to part with one or two Upside SPs.

I'd sweeten the deal with any number of RP they wanted. Maybe even throw in Maldonado to upgrade the prospect return.

[nate82]

 

 

I'd sweeten the deal with any number of RP they wanted. Maybe even throw in Maldonado to upgrade the prospect return.

 

Maldonado is not getting you an upgraded prospect. A backup defensive catcher is not going to get you an increase in prospects unless that defensive backup catcher is young which Maldonado is not. Lucroy would increase the value Maldonado would just be a throw in player who gets you a AAAA player.

[JohnBriggs12]

Aoki's value is as a premier leadoff hitter. I think the Pirates are satisfied with Marte.

 

He'd be a huge upgrade over Desmond Jennings in Tampa in that role and they have the arms to make it happen.

 

The Giants have the need too but don't have the ammunition to get him.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

 

I'd sweeten the deal with any number of RP they wanted. Maybe even throw in Maldonado to upgrade the prospect return.

 

Maldonado is not getting you an upgraded prospect. A backup defensive catcher is not going to get you an increase in prospects unless that defensive backup catcher is young which Maldonado is not. Lucroy would increase the value Maldonado would just be a throw in player who gets you a AAAA player.

 

So Russell Martin with Mike McHenry as backup is appealing to Pittsburgh vs. making it Russell Martin with Martin Maldonado as backup?

 

I'm not suggesting Martin gets a top quality player on his own merit. But if Pittsburgh kicks the tires on trading Nick Kingham and Tyler Glasnow for Aoki. Improving Pittsburgh's backup Catcher situation by offering a better Maldonado than McHenry may be appealing to do the deal.

 

Anyway, It was thinking of a way to make a deal happen. I thought Pitts. Catcher prospect was more than a year away but it looks like they could just call him up now to improve their backup situation.

[And That]

He'd be a huge upgrade over Desmond Jennings in Tampa in that role and they have the arms to make it happen.

 

Tampa was my first thought as well. He's a guy they wouldn't have trouble plugging in any of the outfield spots and he's cheap, at least for a little while.

 

I think the Pirates would like him, but I don't think they'd like him enough to part with the package the Brewers would probably ask for from a division foe.

[JohnBriggs12]

Aoki's OBP (.363) isn't that much higher than Starling Marte's .343. Tabata should return soon and give their OF a boost. I just don't see them ponying up a big time prospect to a division rival for Aoki.

[brewcrewdue80]

[quote name="And That"

I think the Pirates would like him' date=' but I don't think they'd like him enough to part with the package the Brewers would probably ask for from a division foe.[/quote]

 

I understand that completely. But in reality it's a pitcher like Glasnow in 2 years for Milwaukee in our rotation facing the likes of Cole,Taillon, and Heredia. If I'm Pittsburgh I'd say to myself, we still have the better pitching to go against who we are giving up.

 

Aoki's OBP (.363) isn't that much higher than Starling Marte's .343. Tabata should return soon and give their OF a boost. I just don't see them ponying up a big time prospect to a division rival for Aoki.

 

 

Tabata's career WAR is .9 in 330+games. Aoki has accumulated 5.4WAR in 228 games. Aoki is an upgrade. Lefty with Tabata Righty so could easily see a platoon end up in the situation.

 

Pittsburgh is at a point now where they have to commit through this. They can't blow this season.

[TheCrew07]

I'm always thinking about trying to pilfer TB's pitching, but I don't see it trying to replace Jennings with Aoki. He's basically a 26 year old league average hitter and a good defender, not to mention one of the better all around athletes the Rays have. Aoki's only advantage over him is as a prototypical lead-off guy, that's a pretty narrow window to build a trade around.

 

The Rays just brought up Wil Myers who's been playing RF when he doesn't DH. Myers in RF, Jennings in CF, and Joyce in LF is a pretty darn solid OF. Aoki isn't really an upgrade over the 3 guys I'd play in that OF. Unless you want to make Myers the DH and Kelly Johnson a utility guy, then you could trade Aoki, but what are we looking at getting back? An upper level guy like Montgomery? A lower level guy like Jeff Ames?

[trwi7]

I like the Pirates pitching much more than the Giants, I'd take Glasnow and Kingham in a heartbeat for Aoki. Heck I'd take one of them.

 

I like the thinking. Problem is a lot of GM's don't like to "trade within the division" because they're scared of the trade coming back to bite them more than it would in a different division/league. I hate that, take the best offer regardless of team but it always needs to be taken into consideration.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'd trade our top players to the Pirates, to put them over the top just so they beat the Reds and Cards for the division and potentially knocks one of them out of the playoffs. I'd ask for there top pitching prospects in return.

[brewcrewdue80]

I like the Pirates pitching much more than the Giants, I'd take Glasnow and Kingham in a heartbeat for Aoki. Heck I'd take one of them.

 

I like the thinking. Problem is a lot of GM's don't like to "trade within the division" because they're scared of the trade coming back to bite them more than it would in a different division/league. I hate that, take the best offer regardless of team but it always needs to be taken into consideration.

 

 

This was my response to John Briggs saying basically the same thing. Messed up the Quote and it got mixed within the Quote:

 

I understand that completely. But in reality it's a pitcher like Glasnow in 2 years for Milwaukee in our rotation facing the likes of Cole,Taillon, and Heredia. If I'm Pittsburgh I'd say to myself, we still have the better pitching to go against who we are giving up.

[chadomac]

Since it seems we won't get anything really worthwhile for our multiple relievers by themselves, I hope that we can add-on a reliever or two to Aoki or whatever other position player we happen to trade and get some better prospects in return. You would think most teams could use a good reliever in their pen for the second half, and we have plenty.

[jackailius]

Do you think Detroit would want an upgrade over Dirks? Maybe Aoki and Ax or KRod for Castellanos, Crosby and a lower level + prospect?

[brewcrewdue80]

Do you think Detroit would want an upgrade over Dirks? Maybe Aoki and Ax or KRod for Castellanos, Crosby and a lower level + prospect?

 

Castellanos is a top 20 prospect. Detroit can have Aoki,Ax and KRod for him. No chance of any more prospects in that deal. I'd be thrilled!

Get it done DM! HA ha

[jackailius]

I agree but considering they are working into outfield play in the minors because he is blocked at his natural position, the fact they are in need of relievers and maybe outfield upgrade with a leadoff lefthanded ability with huge on base numbers ahead of cabrera and fielder with a very low salary for this year and next I'd say they might buy on the idea. I also agree that I'd throw ax and krod in the deal but i do think we could broach the subject of adding soemone like crosby as well.

[brewcrewdue80]

Texas Rangers. What would they offer for Aoki?

Nelson Cruz is on that list for Suspension. His bat would be a big hole to fill. With Murphy struggling. These are two players that the Rangers are left with a decision to either keep or let go to Free Agency

 

I'm thinking the Rangers make a move at Aoki. Cheap and a safety net if they cut ties with both Murphy and Cruz.

It would be a great outcome with their bevy of talent. SP? Perez/Jackson/Ramirez/Edwards/Asher

Or covering the bases: 1b Ronald Guzman 2b Roughned Odor SS Luis Sardinas 3b Mike Olt/Joey Gallo

 

I think any combo of 2 of them for Aoki would be good for both sides.

[jjfanec]

Texas Rangers. What would they offer for Aoki?

Nelson Cruz is on that list for Suspension. His bat would be a big hole to fill. With Murphy struggling. These are two players that the Rangers are left with a decision to either keep or let go to Free Agency

 

I'm thinking the Rangers make a move at Aoki. Cheap and a safety net if they cut ties with both Murphy and Cruz.

It would be a great outcome with their bevy of talent. SP? Perez/Jackson/Ramirez/Edwards/Asher

Or covering the bases: 1b Ronald Guzman 2b Roughned Odor SS Luis Sardinas 3b Mike Olt/Joey Gallo

 

I think any combo of 2 of them for Aoki would be good for both sides.

 

Good call. Reports of the Rangers being interested in Aoki on mlbtraderumors today

 

The Rangers have expressed interest in Brewers outfielder Norichika Aoki during talks with the Brewers about starter Yovani Gallardo, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Aoki has a cheap $1.5MM club option for 2014, so it's unclear whether the Brewers will move him.

 

Aoki, 31, joined the Brewers in January 2012 after they won the rights to negotiate with him from Japan's Yakult Swallows for $2.5MM. This year he's hitting .298/.366/.378 in 379 plate appearances, trading power for a slightly higher OBP as opposed to last year. He's an underpaid high-contact player who can handle all three outfield positions.

 

Gallardo, meanwhile, takes on another team that covets him in the Diamondbacks tonight. Some scouts see Gallardo as a No. 4 starter in the American League, maybe a 3 in the NL, writes Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. The Rangers recently lost ace Yu Darvish to the DL for a strained trapezius muscle, which is currently considered a minor issue.