Corey Hart Arbitration

[TooLiveBrew]

Corey Hart is limited to first base at this point, too. Unless you want to roll the dice on his knees holding up longer than a month in a corner OF spot. I wish he could still man RF, it would give the team a lot of room to operate in terms of potentially trading Aoki and/or Gomez.

[nate82]

Corey Hart is limited to first base at this point, too. Unless you want to roll the dice on his knees holding up longer than a month in a corner OF spot. I wish he could still man RF, it would give the team a lot of room to operate in terms of potentially trading Aoki and/or Gomez.

 

Hart is very comparable to Lance Berkman in terms of his versatility right now. I don't believe his knees are going to hold up and it would be a very risky gamble by the Brewers if they would do something like bringing Hart back for another year.

[brewcrewdue80]

Here's the worst part about the Brewers situation with Corey.

 

the NYYankees the best I mean best team probably to see Corey be traded to this season, just lost Mark Texiera for the season. If, and it's a small if, Corey returns in time to actual make meaningful stat starts. Does one see the old, trade by waivers happening? What in return then happens?

 

Of course this is assuming the Yanks drop the ball on acquiring a body in Tex's place before the trade deadline.

 

This brings back what might have been:

The Prince Fielder-for-Matt Cain rumors have been running rampant for a few years now, and though Hart going to San Francisco won't bring back such a large return, he could still bring the Brewers a quality pitcher in return. Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, or Zack Wheeler would be a fine get for Brewers GM Doug Melvin in exchange for Hart.

 

Sigh, seriously if the team could have Bumgarner or even Wheeler imagine the possibilities? If trading Hart in 2010 happened, then maybe Fielder gets traded in the Offseason. The Brewers never get Grienke. Instead have Bumgarner leading the way 2011 and beyond while having Lawrie,Odorizzi,Cain, and Escobar. Plus whatever received in trade for Fielder. This may have been the year with Gallardo,Bumgarner,Peralta,Odorizzi leading us to the Playoffs.

 

One Trade, if done at the right time, could have changed our entire landscape.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Considering the poor quality o the Brewers minor league depth at 1B, and the fact that I don't see it changing in the next 1-2 years. I'd offer Hart a 1 year deal with a vesting option based on PA. It will make the team better and that means more tickets sold.

[RockCoCougars]

I remember the most substantiated SF offer being Sanchez for Hart, and Melvin rightfully shot it down.

[nate82]

I remember the most substantiated SF offer being Sanchez for Hart, and Melvin rightfully shot it down.

 

You remember correctly. Melvin wanted Bumgarner in return for Hart the Giants said no and only offered Sanchez. The next year the Giants then trade Wheeler for Beltran with no chance of offering arbitration to him.

[TheCrew07]

Considering the poor quality o the Brewers minor league depth at 1B

 

Poor quality? Except for those 2 guys in AAA? Or Jason Rogers at AA? I'm going to jump out on a limb here and say that you really don't follow the minor league system at all? Jason has had a terrible June, but I think his true talent as a hitter lies between his April and May numbers.

 

[pre]Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS

April 25 108 104 15 29 7 2 2 18 3 16 .279 .296 .442 .739

May 28 112 103 15 29 7 0 8 25 6 20 .282 .321 .583 .904

June 22 89 78 4 9 2 0 0 7 10 15 .115 .213 .141 .355[/pre]

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/27/2013.

 

As an organization we have plenty of OF and 1B depth, but we are thin basically everywhere else.

 

Unless by poor quality you mean we don't have a Prince Fielder who's going to hit 50 HRs in his best season to which I would respond, "How many teams do?". BA or someone else I regularly read did an article earlier this summer on the lack of impact 1B prospects around baseball. It's very late or I would take 20 minutes going to find it. Maybe I'll do that tomorrow.

[Thurston Fluff]

One month of an OPS above .739 and two of three months of sub .300 OBP is hardly evidence of being a legit prospect.

[Warning Track Power]

The NYYankees the best I mean best team probably to see Corey be traded to this season, just lost Mark Texiera for the season. If, and it's a small if, Corey returns in time to actual make meaningful stat starts. Does one see the old, trade by waivers happening? What in return then happens?

I would trade Corey Hart for Phil Hughes now and see if Hughes can play in the NL given his talent.

[TheCrew07]

One month of an OPS above .739 and two of three months of sub .300 OBP is hardly evidence of being a legit prospect.

 

I pointed at AA simply because I knew someone like you would look at his AA stats and say exactly what you said. Here's his career, he's not a 1st division player by any stretch, but he could be an adequate stop-gap if need be. I'm not advocating for him any kind of MLB role today, I'm saying there is a possibility he may provide value down the road.

 

[pre]Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS

2010 22 Brewers ARIZ Rk MIL 42 185 160 .281 .368 .394 .761

2011 23 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-Rk MIL 71 299 267 .277 .337 .431 .767

2012 24 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-A+ MIL 133 558 472 .301 .405 .449 .854

2013 25 Huntsville SOUL AA MIL 76 314 288 .236 .287 .410 .696

4 Seasons 322 1356 1187 .277 .357 .428 .785

A (2 seasons) A 130 549 479 .288 .366 .457 .823

Rk (2 seasons) Rk 49 214 187 .283 .364 .401 .766

AA (1 season) AA 76 314 288 .236 .287 .410 .696

A+ (1 season) A+ 67 279 233 .300 .416 .412 .828[/pre]

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/27/2013.

 

The point here is once again we have options. It's not Hart or bust, just like it's not Gomez or bust, or Aoki or bust, or whatever established MLB player's loss you want to claim will ruin the ball club.

[JimH5]

Here's his career, he's not a 1st division player by any stretch, but he could be an adequate stop-gap if need be. I'm not advocating for him any kind of MLB role today, I'm saying there is a possibility he may provide value down the road.

 

I don't believe that praise can be any more faint than that.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Considering the poor quality o the Brewers minor league depth at 1B

 

Poor quality? Except for those 2 guys in AAA? Or Jason Rogers at AA? I'm going to jump out on a limb here and say that you really don't follow the minor league system at all? Jason has had a terrible June, but I think his true talent as a hitter lies between his April and May numbers.

 

[pre]Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS

April 25 108 104 15 29 7 2 2 18 3 16 .279 .296 .442 .739

May 28 112 103 15 29 7 0 8 25 6 20 .282 .321 .583 .904

June 22 89 78 4 9 2 0 0 7 10 15 .115 .213 .141 .355[/pre]

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/27/2013.

 

As an organization we have plenty of OF and 1B depth, but we are thin basically everywhere else.

 

Unless by poor quality you mean we don't have a Prince Fielder who's going to hit 50 HRs in his best season to which I would respond, "How many teams do?". BA or someone else I regularly read did an article earlier this summer on the lack of impact 1B prospects around baseball. It's very late or I would take 20 minutes going to find it. Maybe I'll do that tomorrow.

 

I know exactly what I'm talking about. I'd bet that if Halton and Morris struggle for the rest of the season, the Brewers will either sign Hart for 1-2 years or look to FA.

[brwrsfan]

Sounds like Hart may miss all season now (per cbs), so we won't be trading him and I really don't see why we'd bring him back unless we really think that poorly of Halton, Morris and Francisco.

[Oxy]

Here's his career, he's not a 1st division player by any stretch, but he could be an adequate stop-gap if need be. I'm not advocating for him any kind of MLB role today, I'm saying there is a possibility he may provide value down the road.

 

I don't believe that praise can be any more faint than that.

 

Especially for a 25 year old 1B at AA. I'm trying to figure out if a guy in that position could have worse numbers. Any other position on the field and I guess I could buy the "stop-gap" position, but at 1B think I'd rather sign a 54-year old Julio Franco for a year and enjoy the novelty.

[JimH5]

 

Especially for a 25 year old 1B at AA. I'm trying to figure out if a guy in that position could have worse numbers. Any other position on the field and I guess I could buy the "stop-gap" position, but at 1B think I'd rather sign a 54-year old Julio Franco for a year and enjoy the novelty.

 

 

I guess they need guys to fill out organizational rosters. But if I were to advise Mr. Rogers, I would tell him to find a day job and to not quit it.

 

25 year olds playing AA are very unlikely to have any impact in the majors. And first base prospects don't produce .428 slugging lines in 1356 plate appearances.

 

He is 1000 times the baseball player than I am. He earned paychecks playing professional baseball. But the Brewers can't possibly look at him as being anyone to consider for the major league team.

[TheCrew07]

Who's been talking about Halton as legitimate MLB option other than JB12 the last 1.5 years? He's always been marginally productive, doesn't hit for enough power, and so on... but yet somehow in 2013 he's the best option we have for a 25 man roster spot. Rogers isn't going to jump out at you with any particular tool but there's probably enough there offensively that he could be a starter on a bad team or a bench bat. Believe me I understand Rogers' limitations and every statistical and age argument people are going to make, but there's reasonable chance Jason will have some sort of MLB career. Halton and Green aren't 1st division starters at 1B either... I think Gamel could have been, but who knows where his career is going to go after not playing for 2 straight years? Morris also could be a 1st division guy, time will tell with him as well.

 

Again, there are just too many options to make Hart a qualifying offer. It doesn't make sense financially unless other players are traded, it doesn't make sense from roster building standpoint, and it doesn't make sense from a talent standpoint. We already have a plethora of 1B options on the 40 man roster, we have young players ready to immediately step into that position, and with our current financial commitments next year how could the team possibly afford to sign Hart? He may out produce all of those guys if healthy, then again he may not, and what reasonable expectation do we have that Hart wouldn't miss 20-30 games regardless?

 

[pre]Year Age G OPS OPS+

2007 25 140 .892 127

2008 26 157 .759 98

2009 27 115 .753 100

2010 28 145 .865 130

2011 29 130 .866 133

2012 30 149 .841 120

9 Yrs 945 .824 116

162 Game Avg. 162 .824 116[/pre]

 

I think Hart would have been an .820ish OPS player this year, he might have able to maintain his .840-.860 OPS for a year or 2, but at some point his offensive value is going to start sliding every year. If I had to project Morris for 2014, I'd guess a low .800s OPS... probably in the .820-.830 range. He's putting up an .810 OPS in Nashville and he hasn't hit consistently in any month yet. I think Morris has legitimate chance to equal Hart's production in 2014, both guys have relatively the same floor, but Morris has the much higher ceiling at this point. If we're talking a 25 year old Hart there's no way I'm making this same argument, but we're talking about a 31 year old player coming off significant knee issues and a year long absence.

 

Furthermore why would Melvin sign him and then flip him? When has DM ever done that? Gomez is probably the 1 healthy player that if packaged properly could bring back the young pitching we so desperately need I think there's less than a 5% chance that Melvin would ever entertain flipping him.

 

Finally, people keep talking about Coulter as a C but I don't see it. Since he has a strong arm I think there's a reasonable chance he'll get tried at 3B, but he may ultimately end up at 1B. Garrett Cooper is another 1B from Auburn who's doing exactly what college players should do thus far in the Pioneer league. David Denson from this year's draft is the kid who hit the 515' HR, he's an intriguing HS player in AZ. I'm not big on Cody Hawn who's in A+ or Adam Giacalone who's playing in A ball, but at every other level of the organization above the DSL we have decent to good 1B prospects. 1B is not an organizational weakness... now if you want to talk about 3B, CF, SS, 2B, LHP, or impact starting pitching I'd agree that the organization has a need to do something.

[JimH5]

I'm not in favor of offering arbitration to Hart, so I guess we're in agreement on that. I just don't see anybody in the organization as a better than replacement level option.

 

As for our "plethora" of 1st base options, they have a list of guys with 1B next to their name, and someone on that list will be better than the others. That makes him the best of the lot, but it doesn't make him someone to get excited about.

 

I think you're being very very optimistic about Morris and an .820-.830 OPS. That would put him in the top 10 in MLB right now. I don't see any way he's going to be better than 20th. But time may tell.

[TheCrew07]

I think you're being very very optimistic about Morris and an .820-.830 OPS. That would put him in the top 10 in MLB right now. I don't see any way he's going to be better than 20th. But time may tell.

 

I certainly am being optimistic, I just think Morris is an ascending player.

 

As to your second point, depending on where he falls he's probably outside the top 10. Currently an .820 would be 11th, just in front of Anthony Rizzo at .816 and behind Freddie Freeman/ Adrian Gonzalez at .825. Looking at the 1B leader board sorted by OPS on fangraphs we're experiencing a changing of the guard 1B wise. Are guys like Ryan Howard going to be truly elite players at age 34 in 2014? or Adrian Gonzalez at 32? Where does Pujols stack up at 34 in 2014? I have to believe he's still capable of a mid .850s OPS, but maybe time has passed him by as well. I'd take Morris over most of the guys below Rizzo in that list and definitely everyone from Brandon Belt on down. The only guy with significant talent in that bottom 3rd is Eric Hosmer, I would have never guessed he'd still be struggling to put up a .700 OPS in his 3rd full season.

 

I honestly have hard time qualifying my affection for Morris, maybe it's just as simple as he's come so far already? I think at worst he's a .750ish OPS guy. That's not great, but it's a pretty reasonable floor, and I'll take it.

[1992casey]

Exactly, there are new guidelines under the new CBA.

 

Outgoing free agents aren't offered "arbitration", they receive a "qualifying offer" equal to the average salaries of the top 125 paid players in MLB. The old "Type A", "Type B" free agent system is gone, and the compensation for a player who declines a qualifying offer isn't the same anymore, either.

 

^^ This is it. If you want a parallel situation, look at Kyle Lohse and the Cardinals this past winter rather than K-Rod a couple of years ago.

[brewcrewdue80]

The other aspect of Morris is the guy is rated the #2 1b prospect on MLB's prospect watch. I don't know what it is but 1b aren't growing on trees 20years ago apparently. Look around the landscape of 1b and I see no reason to not play Morris. The 1b being fielded around the League aren't as strong as used to be, and thinking Morris is only a Replacement level 1b may still grade out as in the top half in all of baseball anyway.

 

Morris may not be the ideal 1b you want statistically based on historic stats, but looking around the baseball, how would his stats stack up over the next 3-5years. Remember he's the #2 1b prospect, if you're down on him just think what the other teams in the league are looking at coming up in their systems. And those guys are going to be who Morris has to stack himself up against.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Just so you guys know I'm not down on Morris. I just think he's at least a year or two away from making an impact at the MLB level. We need someone to fill the time gap.

[TURBO]

If Morris is a year or two away, he is probably still a lot better than the slop we have ran out there at 1B all season. I just see no reason not to let the kid play, especially in a lost season, where we just can't even begin to compete for a playoff spot. This is the perfect time to let young guys see what they can handle.

 

Of course, this decision should have been made in the beginning of May, when Gonzalez, Yuni, or any one of the other first basemen we threw out there were failing miserably. Here we are, 2 months later (3 months from opening day) without a regular 1B.

 

This position has infuriated me all season long, and goes down as a huge failure on the part of Doug Melvin.