Machado, Trout, Harper and Segura. If you can have any one of them, who do you take?

[sheetskout]

As good as he's playing I want to put Segura in that group but I just can't. In all reality if you asked me and I lived outside of the state I would put him a distant fourth. I'd be more concerned with Segura's body type as he matures and I don't see him sticking at SS more than five years.

 

None of the other players mentioned have very difficult position questions and could turn into outstanding fielders (Trout already is). It's difficult to tell with Machado, but he should start to show power that even Segura will drool at by the time he's Segura's age (Machado is 2+ years younger than Segura).

 

1. Harper

2. Trout

3. Machado

4. Segura

 

I don't really even care for Harper, but that kind of swing and power potential is once in a generation. I don't see Trout hitting 40+ year after year. He's almost a full year younger than Trout and hasn't really even gotten rolling yet.

 

Segura's good, but he doesn't have a franchise-center, Ryan-Braun type bat. I'm glad we have him though.....

[TooLiveBrew]

Trout's body is so unique. We haven't had anyone so young, so fast, so big.

 

Machado seems like a safer bet.

For whatever it's worth, Bryce Harper is listed at the same height & weight as Trout (6'2"/230). I know Harper isn't as fast, but he's fast in his own right.

 

I did a double-take when I saw Machado's doubles tally. I have to guess Camden Yards plays pretty big for a righty in terms of homers. Put him in Miller Park, and you might be talking 15 HR & 25 2B at this point in the season.

 

 

I'd be more concerned with Segura's body type as he matures and I don't see him sticking at SS more than five years.

I could see that. Fortunately, it looks like his arm & reflexes would fit well at 3B. His career arc could easily wind up going from SS to 2B to 3B. Until his bat eventually starts to slow down, he'll probably hit even enough to be a net plus at 3B.

[The stache]

This is a great thread topic, The 'stache.

 

Thank you, TLB. I thought it would make for an interesting discussion.

 

Harper, Trout and Matt Moore were the big three before last year started (and I really, really like Moore. He's going to be a great pitcher for a long time). Machado was a top 10 ranked prospect. Segura was the wild card. I thought he was slightly underrated as a prospect even before we got him, and when he won the winter league batting title, I was really excited to see what he could do starting the season off at Milwaukee. He's performed as well as any of these other guys.

 

It funny that the two positions that are the hardest to find superstars for, center field and shortstop, we have stars. Now if we could just get some pitching, and Ryan Braun healthy and cleared of these issues....

[StearnsFTW]

Trout and it isn't even close.

 

I was going to post this word for word.

 

As was I.

[thebruce44]

I would take the SS every time.

 

That's makes no sense. Its not like CF isn't a premium defensive position.

 

It makes plenty of sense if you don't cut out the rest of what I said. You do a disservice to this argument and board when you do that. SS is the most premium position on the field, and CF is a close second. This is just the beginning what we are seeing with Segura. He's still developing. The power will increase even more which will further improve his stats.

 

Also, considering who the Brewers have in CF already, Segura is the obvious option of who we should want out of any of those options.

 

Ok, in the interest of not doing the board a diservice, here was the rest of your post:

 

Exactly. It's not a slam dunk like people are saying. I would take the SS every time. I also think Segura is going to show more power than he's showing right now and this is only the beginning.

 

What am I missing or how am I taking that out of context?

 

Segura is a SS, but I don't think the difference between playing an elite CF vs well above average SS would make up for the difference in their batting projections (or what they have already accomplished for that matter with Segura probably playing over his head). I also don't think its wise to make a blanket statement such as taking the SS every time. I suspect you overstated your opinion, but regardless its important to note just how much Trout's defense can help a team.

 

Additionally, who else is already on your team isn't part of the hypothetical discussion.

[PrinceFielderx1]

theBruce44,

 

A couple things,

 

We disagree on Segura's projection for one. That's pretty huge. I've seen nothing that suggests in the near future that Segura can't repeat what he's currently doing. He hit's practically everything, which is explained by his 100+ hits already. When he starts putting more power on those hits they will turn into more doubles, triples, and HR's. I think it's a matter of when, not if.

 

That comment about taking the SS every time when talking elite players like we have to choose from here I'd likely take the SS every time. It's pretty close call however between Segura and the CF's.

 

Stache's first sentence in his original post says

 

"You are the General Manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. You are given the chance to acquire one of the top three young players in the game:

 

Manny Machado.

Mike Trout.

Bryce Harper.

 

Or, you can pass on those three young superstars, and sign Jean Segura to a long term deal.

 

How you're able to get these players isn't really isn't important. This is purely hypothetical.

 

Here is a side by side comparison of their production thus far (numbers not updated for Wednesday's games).

 

Image

 

Who do you add to your team?"

 

This is very much part of the hypothetical discussion. Like I said, it's a obvious choice considering who we have in CF right now.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hadn't weighed in on this, but Trout for the time-being. Though, you add Puig to this when the season is over and I wonder if he's in the conversation or even winning it.

 

Trout, Machado, Segura, Harper.

 

I almost think Harper overworked his body. He looks freakish in build and bulky and you wonder if that isn't going to play well overall long term health-wise for the position he plays.

 

I really like Machado. I'd trade Braun for him now straight up and pay 20million to do so if I were the GM. Machado,Segura? wow. Get it down Melvin! LOl

[thebruce44]

theBruce44,

 

A couple things,

 

We disagree on Segura's projection for one. That's pretty huge. I've seen nothing that suggests in the near future that Segura can't repeat what he's currently doing. He hit's practically everything, which is explained by his 100+ hits already. When he starts putting more power on those hits they will turn into more doubles, triples, and HR's. I think it's a matter of when, not if.

 

That comment about taking the SS every time when talking elite players like we have to choose from here I'd likely take the SS every time. It's pretty close call however between Segura and the CF's.

 

Stache's first sentence in his original post says

 

"You are the General Manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. You are given the chance to acquire one of the top three young players in the game:

 

Manny Machado.

Mike Trout.

Bryce Harper.

 

Or, you can pass on those three young superstars, and sign Jean Segura to a long term deal.

 

Who do you add to your team?"

 

This is very much part of the hypothetical discussion. Like I said, it's a obvious choice considering who we have in CF right now.

 

Segura is slugging .525. His HR/FB is 18%. He leads the league in "just enough" HRs at 9. I don't see how you can suggest he will hit for more power than this in the near future. Yes, I think he will fill out more and put up more real power, so hopefully he can get back to this unsustainable rate through talent later in his career.

 

With regards to Stache's post, I read that as inconsequential to the discussion. We are looking at these players in a vacuum. Who do you want...and regardless I wouldn't factor in the presence of Gomez if I had the chance to magically acquire Trout.

[pogokat]

I worry about segura's batting average going forward just because of the amount of infield hits he currently legs out. He's leading the league in infield hits by a wide margin and its because he beats out routine grounders to short. I think it's awesome that he can do that, but I don't think it's a Long term repeatable ability...in other words, if he loses the smallest amount of speed, and he will, his game will lose that aspect.

 

Then he will need the extra power...

 

Speaking of which, I think trout will hit 40 hrs a year in the not to distant future...and Harper and Machado will be consistent 30 home run guys. I don't think segura ever will be.

 

And that's the biggest difference for me...

[StearnsFTW]

I agree Pogo. I think Segura is 4th on this list by a fairly wide margin (my words not yours). I still think he's going to be a very good player, but I think the other 3 are going to be superstars.

 

Also, I think Harper will be consistent 40 HR guy too within 2 years, and stay that way for a while, barring injury. His swing is incredibly powerful.

[Warning Track Power]

Anyone want to throw Yasiel Puig into the discussion? His first 22 games have been incredible. Check this out, over a 162 game season he projects to:

 

.435/.467/.729

52 HR

103 RBI

15 SB

 

While he obviously is not going to keep a .400+ AVG, it will be hard to not throw him into the mix as well if he keeps up production close to this. I will get my first glimpse of him tonight at the Phillies-Dodgers game. Haven't been this excited to see a player since Ryan Braun's second career game in San Diego.

[brewcrewdue80]

Anyone want to throw Yasiel Puig into the discussion? His first 22 games have been incredible. Check this out, over a 162 game season he projects to:

 

.435/.467/.729

52 HR

103 RBI

15 SB

 

While he obviously is not going to keep a .400+ AVG, it will be hard to not throw him into the mix as well if he keeps up production close to this. I will get my first glimpse of him tonight at the Phillies-Dodgers game. Haven't been this excited to see a player since Ryan Braun's second career game in San Diego.

 

I already threw him in the discussion 4 posts ahead of yours.

 

One of those where if he continues doing what he's doing til the end of season. It would be Segura like where right now Puig can't be counted as the real deal yet so early. But, let's say he (realistically mind you) hits 25HRs by season's end and still has a .300+ Avg.

 

How close in to the conversation does he become to at least Harper/Machado. Trout still wins this discussion by defaut. Younger and more polished stats.

[PrinceFielderx1]

theBruce44,

 

A couple things,

 

We disagree on Segura's projection for one. That's pretty huge. I've seen nothing that suggests in the near future that Segura can't repeat what he's currently doing. He hit's practically everything, which is explained by his 100+ hits already. When he starts putting more power on those hits they will turn into more doubles, triples, and HR's. I think it's a matter of when, not if.

 

That comment about taking the SS every time when talking elite players like we have to choose from here I'd likely take the SS every time. It's pretty close call however between Segura and the CF's.

 

Stache's first sentence in his original post says

 

"You are the General Manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. You are given the chance to acquire one of the top three young players in the game:

 

Manny Machado.

Mike Trout.

Bryce Harper.

 

Or, you can pass on those three young superstars, and sign Jean Segura to a long term deal.

 

Who do you add to your team?"

 

This is very much part of the hypothetical discussion. Like I said, it's a obvious choice considering who we have in CF right now.

 

Segura is slugging .525. His HR/FB is 18%. He leads the league in "just enough" HRs at 9. I don't see how you can suggest he will hit for more power than this in the near future. Yes, I think he will fill out more and put up more real power, so hopefully he can get back to this unsustainable rate through talent later in his career.

 

With regards to Stache's post, I read that as inconsequential to the discussion. We are looking at these players in a vacuum. Who do you want...and regardless I wouldn't factor in the presence of Gomez if I had the chance to magically acquire Trout.

 

Segura is going to be fast for quite a wile longer. When he adds power to his hits I'm not really focusing on the home runs as much as I am more double and triples and XBH%. He won't need to leg out for all of those hits, because they wont be in the infield. I think Segura is really good at hitting in general, which means he knows where the holes and gaps are, so I'm not worried about his average dropping. Will it remain this high I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't count it out at all, either.

 

Fair enough on everything else you wrote. I'd probably lean more in Trouts direction, but If Segura can get more extra base hits and increase his power, it will be interesting to compare the two at that point no matter how many Home runs Trout hits. I'm not sure Trout will always have this speed, because of his body, but who knows at this point.

[3and2Fastball]

If Segura had an approach more similar to Rickey Henderson's where he drew tons of walks and got on base at a .400+ clip it'd be an easier decision.

 

As it is, I'm still thinking about it. Trout is a special talent and is hitting .363 in June and has his season average up to .316 with a .389 OBP ..... that said it is extremely difficult to find top flight SS talent

 

I wouldn't look at the "for the Milwaukee Brewers" portion of the hypothetical question as a deterrent to choosing Trout or Harper. The reason I say that is because both Gomez & Braun would have great trade value....

[Funketown]

I think if there's any argument that Trout isn't the best option going forward it has to center around the possibility that with his body shape he just doesn't age well.

 

Up to this point, he's been historically dominant. Segura, Harper, and Machado have all been great, but nothing they've done so far has been close to Trout's success.

 

However, if: (i) Trout's body leads to a rapid decrease in his defensive capabilities causing him to move from CF to a corner or 1B and (ii) this decrease in defensive value coincides with a decrease in his baserunning ability, then I think you can start to look at the other guys. But given the way he hits, I think even an average fielding LF version of Mike Trout is the pick to make here, although it's not entirely clear.

 

I am thrilled with Segura because he's a Brewer, but I need to see him sustain his power for a bit longer. His walk rate leaves a lot to be desired, although I see no reason he can't get on base at a .340-.350 clip given that he's fast and keeps the ball on the ground for the most part, so he should be able to consistently carry an average around .300. He's a very nice piece, but I just need to see him sustain this power for a bit longer before I lump him in with Trout, Harper, and Machado.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think if there's any argument that Trout isn't the best option going forward it has to center around the possibility that with his body shape he just doesn't age well.

Again, Bryce Harper is listed at the exact same height & weight. The only issue I think there is with Trout is how and when his speed will leave.

[Dean Machine]

Anyone want to throw Yasiel Puig into the discussion? His first 22 games have been incredible. Check this out, over a 162 game season he projects to:

 

.435/.467/.729

52 HR

103 RBI

15 SB

 

While he obviously is not going to keep a .400+ AVG, it will be hard to not throw him into the mix as well if he keeps up production close to this. I will get my first glimpse of him tonight at the Phillies-Dodgers game. Haven't been this excited to see a player since Ryan Braun's second career game in San Diego.

 

 

I specifically drove to Pensacola to see Puig who was playing for the Chatanooga Lookouts and the day I picked he was a healthy scratch. He coached first base. What a let down. He was called up about a week later. Here is a picture I took I uploaded to my FB page. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152895879495722&l=1793f05e12

 

The stadium on the waterfront is awesome and I was just so disappointed because when the project was first announced it was that it was going to be Huntsville moving to Pensacola and my vacation house is only about 75 minutes away.

[Funketown]

I think if there's any argument that Trout isn't the best option going forward it has to center around the possibility that with his body shape he just doesn't age well.

Again, Bryce Harper is listed at the exact same height & weight. The only issue I think there is with Trout is how and when his speed will leave.

 

Yeah, I was just thinking it might be more of an issue for Trout than Harper due to the way he plays.

 

But as a defender, he seems to have good instincts (though I don't see him much as he's on the West Coast). So I think even if he slows down he'll at best be a + corner outfielder.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think if there's any argument that Trout isn't the best option going forward it has to center around the possibility that with his body shape he just doesn't age well.

Again, Bryce Harper is listed at the exact same height & weight. The only issue I think there is with Trout is how and when his speed will leave.

 

Yeah, I was just thinking it might be more of an issue for Trout than Harper due to the way he plays.

 

But as a defender, he seems to have good instincts (though I don't see him much as he's on the West Coast). So I think even if he slows down he'll at best be a + corner outfielder.

Agreed on him being a plus defender in an outfield corner eventually. The guy is just an exceptional talent (same for Harper).

[HiAndTight]

Machado.

 

He's a short stop, only playing 3rd because of Hardy, which is harder to find than a CF like Trout. He's the second youngest of that group, only 3 months younger than Harper. I feel he's going to be a 30 homerun guy as all those doubles he's hitting this year start going out of the park.

 

 

I'll go with Machado as well by the slimmest of margins over Hart for the reasons you mentioned. He's an absolute stud. That play he made recently at 3rd base was one of the best plays I've ever seen a 3rd basemen make and he's also 20 years old.

 

Trout's 10+ WAR season was just incredible, but I think finding a SS who can seamlessly move over to 3rd base is equally rare. Plus, I think a lot of those 40 1st half doubles will turn into HR's as he ages.

 

Segura's great, but I just can't put him in this category.

 

IN order I'd go;

Machado

Trout

Harper

Segura as a distant 4th.

[HiAndTight]

I think if there's any argument that Trout isn't the best option going forward it has to center around the possibility that with his body shape he just doesn't age well.

Again, Bryce Harper is listed at the exact same height & weight. The only issue I think there is with Trout is how and when his speed will leave.

 

 

 

Where? Fangraphs has Mike Trout at 6'1 and 210 and Bryce Harper at 6'3 215. Of course this was before the stories that he gained 40 pounds in the off-season and showed up at 245-250 pounds with stories of his weight gaining coming due to eating 6-7-8 big cheeseburgers for lunch while Harper gained weight intentionally by lifting.

 

But either way, even if they're listed as being the same size somewhere, they do NOT have the same body types. Trout is a lock thicker and a lot stockier. Harper is longer and leaner.

 

I mean, if you use Baseball Reference/ESPN for height and weight, do you think they're weighing guys in? I remember there was a 3 year period where Prince put on a bunch of weight, then took it back off and his listed weight never changed.

 

 

Edit-Here is an article that touches on that.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1544561-why-mike-trouts-weight-gain-is-a-concern-but-bryce-harpers-is-not

 

 

At the end of the day though I think in 20 year players are going to look back at these three players(and perhaps a one or two others like Profar) and might still be arguing who had the better career and who was the better player. Harper's power and arm is off the charts, Trout is a amazing 5 tool player and Machado could do some historic things himself. Wouldn't surprise me to see Harper hit 50 HR's several times and end up near the record, Trout to be a 400-400 type guy with a OBP well over .400 and multiple time GG'er and Machado to blow way past 3,000 hits. Of course these guys are about 64 years old combined, so a bit premature.

 

I'll just have fun watching and hoping that Segura is wearing a Brewers jersey for most of that time.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think if there's any argument that Trout isn't the best option going forward it has to center around the possibility that with his body shape he just doesn't age well.

Again, Bryce Harper is listed at the exact same height & weight. The only issue I think there is with Trout is how and when his speed will leave.

Where?

Their MLB.com player pages