Johnny Hellweg called up (first MLB start Friday, 6/28 @PIT); Alfredo Fígaro to DL (right oblique strain)

[LouisEly]

Honestly, last night I said to myself, "this is Ben Hendrickson with a 97 mph fastball".

 

The realist in me looks at the numbers and thinks there is a lot of bad luck so far. He has a .417 BABIP, and of the 15 hits he has given up only two have been extra bases - both doubles. I looked at the numbers because I thought he hadn't given up any extra base hits. They aren't squaring him up at all - there have been a lot of bloop hits and grounders that are finding holes. Add this to the bad defense and there is still hope for him if he can find the strike zone.

 

I don't like his delivery though - I was hoping he would be a little more over-the-top to take advantage of his height instead of coming from a 3/4 slot like he is.

[nate82]

The problem with Hellweg is that he is not able to repeat his delivery this is the same problem with every single pitcher that is rather tall. Basically Hellweg is going to have to find something in his mechanics that he can consistently repeat if that doesn't happen you basically have Randy Johnson before he was able to consistently repeat his mechanics.

 

From: http://miscbaseball.wordpress.com/2010/07/17/nolan-ryan-fixing-randy-johnsons-mechanics-in-1992/

 

Nolan Ryan: Randy, I wanted to start out by having you talk about your 1995 season and also get your thoughts on the success you’ve been able to put together over the past three or four years.

 

Randy Johnson: First of all, I don’t think it’s any secret that I struggled early on in the Major Leagues and throughout parts of my minor league career. And I don’t think I had any breakthrough to where I am now until I met with you and (then-Texas Rangers pitching coach) Tom House. I think a great deal of my success started after that meeting. I had some success in the minor leagues and some early on in my Major League career, but not even close to the extent that I have now.

 

Lots of people have tried working with me and they were all helpful, but it was the one thing that the two of you taught me about landing on the ball of my foot as opposed to landing on the heel of my foot that has helped me the most. I was always throwing the ball hard, but I was never consistent with my mechanics early on.

 

The ability has always been there and I’ve always worked hard, but that seemed to be the one little element that wasn’t there – being consistent with my arm angle and mechanics.

 

Nolan: I think you hit on something. Once you became consistent with your delivery, I think you became more consistent with all your pitches.

 

Randy: In any sport, no matter what you’re doing, there are mechanics, and you have to be consistent with them in order to be successful. I’m 6-10, so you’re dealing with more arms and more legs. To keep them under control is a job in and of itself. And then to be able to get my whole body going toward home plate, instead of toward third base like I was doing, was also a lot of work. But, now that I realize the right way of throwing, I have been able to cut down my walks the last three years. And we all know that when you walk people and give up your normal share of base hits, you’re essentially giving up free runs.

 

And because I’ve been able to keep my number of walks down, I’ve been able to lower my ERA and stay in games longer. . . .

 

 

Watch this video on Hellweg you can tell when his mechanics start to slip as he starts missing a lot with his fastball and he is all over the place not just missing a little bit here or there. Pay special attention to the first Profar AB. His mechanics are good and then they are off and then they are good and then they are off and then they are good again. He is having a hard time repeating his mechanics. I wouldn't be surprised if his next outing he is completely dominant for awhile and then all of a sudden he is not. It is not his stuff or his accuracy it is more along him not being able to consistently repeat his mechanics.

 

[PrinceFielderx1]

The probablem I see with Hellweg is that he doesn't have a plus 2nd pitch with a average 3rd pitch. Why this kid was in AAA is beyond me. They need to demote him to AA to develop his pitches.

[brewcrewdue80]

Who toes the mound in his place? What Pitcher do we send up to be slaughtered instead?

I don't think Milwaukee is putting Hellweg on the Mound because they think he's ready, just that he's their best option/most ready to do so.

Should they use Jungmann? Nelson?

 

I actually thought the solution a few days back would have been to claim Chen Mien Wang off waivers. Why the hell don't they do that? This, Especially when he was DFA'd the day Peralta left for his hamstring tightness.s

 

The Brewers need Estrada/Burgos to get healthy and back on the mound.

[trwi7]

Who toes the mound in his place? What Pitcher do we send up to be slaughtered instead?

I don't think Milwaukee is putting Hellweg on the Mound because they think he's ready, just that he's their best option/most ready to do so.

Should they use Jungmann? Nelson?

 

I actually thought the solution a few days back would have been to claim Chen Mien Wang off waivers. Why the hell don't they do that? This, Especially when he was DFA'd the day Peralta left for his hamstring tightness.s

 

The Brewers need Estrada/Burgos to get healthy and back on the mound.

 

I said it already in the game thread. Send down Hellweg, Thornburg takes his spot in the rotation and call up a reliever to take Thornburg's place in the bullpen.

[paul253]

Who toes the mound in his place? What Pitcher do we send up to be slaughtered instead?

 

Thornburg. His role and Hellweg's should be switched. Hellweg has looked awful in Milwaukee. He has absolutely no command. Thornburg has actually looked ok since being recalled. Otherwise put Narveson back on the 40 and let him pitch. At this point what does it even matter?

[brewcrewdue80]

Who toes the mound in his place? What Pitcher do we send up to be slaughtered instead?

 

Thornburg. His role and Hellweg's should be switched. Hellweg has looked awful in Milwaukee. He has absolutely no command. Thornburg has actually looked ok since being recalled. Otherwise put Narveson back on the 40 and let him pitch. At this point what does it even matter?

 

If the team has decided Thornburg is a long relief Pitcher then putting him back at Starter is against what they are moving him as being. It changes how he's preparing himself mentally.

 

Long Term, Hellweg will be a SP. Thornburg in the BP. So it's likely a developmental thing that to us, Thornburg should be starting in Hellweg's place, for the Brewers long term commitment, Thornburg isn't an option as a Starter.

 

 

As to what does it matter? It's just asking the question from above that Hellweg be sent back down to AAA. Who takes his place?

It's rather annoying that Burgos/Estrada can't return on time having setbacks. It's like what are they doing to these pitchers? First with the multiple injuries, second with them having setbacks trying to rehab?

[trwi7]

Please, the Brewers haven't decided anything with Thornburg. If Thornburg is going to be the default starter anyways after Hellweg goes 2 innings, why not just make him start the game instead of coming in down by 6 runs? Let Hellweg continue to start in the minors and bring up a reliever.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's preparation. Thornburg pretty much started every single game in the minors he pitched in. So the team didn't groom him as a reliever down there. Have they decided he's a SP or RP? I don't know, but it's been out there that he profiles more as a RP long term than a dependable SP.

 

If the team is pushing him in to a RP role, he needs to get accustomed to that lifestyle. It's a different routine being a SP vs. a RP. You know you when you will pitch next vs. being prepared to maybe pitch 4 days in a row.

 

And it's not that Thornburg is the Default starter because of Hellweg going only 2ip, it is the role Thornburg is filling long term. Coming in after a Starter only lasts 2-4ip and getting them another 2-4ip in his appearance. Nobody here should expect Hellweg to be a 2ip Starter. I wouldn't be surprised if he went 7ip next time out.

 

Pitchers on Brewers 40man in minors: Fiers(out for season), Nick Bucci(RK), Ariel Pena(AA), Michael Olmstead(struggling RP in AAA, Burgos(Rehab), Santo Manzanillo(A+), Miquel De Los Santos(Suspended), Jesus Sanchez(AAA).

What's the option then? Bucci, Pena, Olmstead, Manzanillo, or Sanchez is it. Or Hellweg.

 

Like I said, long term Hellweg is supposed to be a Starter. You don't flip roles if the guy that profiles to be the starter as a RP and the guy who profiles to become a RP be the Starter?

Now, I don't know why Manzanillo is taking up a 40man spot? But other than that where else does the team turn? Pena is the only realistic option currently. He and Hellweg are approx. 1 in the same though when it comes to wild expectations.

 

The Brewers just need to get healthy and a return from the DL one of the many SPs that are on it.

[RockCoCougars]

Way too early yet, but from the very little that I've seen from Hellweg- and based on the relatively low K rates he's had in the minors as a starter, it looks like he is going to need a ton of work on his secondary stuff to have much of a future as a SP. If he doesn't develop a secondary pitch he might end up as a Kammy Loe type sinkerballer RP... not a horrible thing, but I don't think it's reaching his full potential either. From what I've seen from Hellweg's delivery, I'm thinking he'd be a good candidate to work with on a slider as opposed to a curve.

[trwi7]

Like I said, long term Hellweg is supposed to be a Starter. You don't flip roles if the guy that profiles to be the starter as a RP and the guy who profiles to become a RP be the Starter?

 

Hellweg is just as likely to become a reliever as Thornburg is.

 

How dense are you? This really isn't that hard.

 

1. Hellweg goes down to Nashville and continues to start.

 

2. Thornburg, who is in the bullpen takes the starting spot that was occupied by Hellweg.

 

3. A reliever (Jesus Sanchez for example) is called up to take Hellweg's spot on the roster and Thornburg's spot in the bullpen.

 

Really not that difficult.

[paul253]

Like I said, long term Hellweg is supposed to be a Starter. You don't flip roles if the guy that profiles to be the starter as a RP and the guy who profiles to become a RP be the Starter?

 

I've never understood why Thornburg "profiles as a reliever". Because of his height? Up until this season he was absolutely dominant as a starter. Far and away the best pitching prospect in the system. And he's had a down year this year yes but his secondary numbers aren't terrible. Good walk to strikeout ratio. Just giving up too many hits for whatever reason. But it's been half a season. I'd like to believe the Brewers haven't given up on him as a starter but it's the Brewers so I know they have.

 

But if Thornburg's problem is how where he locates his pitches than shouldn't Hellweg be like....infinitely more likely to end up a reliever than Thornburg? Hellweg has a good ERA in Nashville but a terrible walk to strike out ratio. And when he pitches in Milwaukee it's clear that the only thing he can throw for a strike is his fastball (sometimes at least), which major league hitters have been waiting on and destroying. I'd give him all the chance in the world to be a starter too but if anyone profiles as a reliever, to me at least, it's him. So far at the ML level Thornburg is having much more success than Hellweg so why Hellweg is still starting and Thornburg is coming out of the bullpen is beyond me. Personally I'd demote both of them to Nashville to continue getting regular work and call up Narveson. I think they'll be ok if they take Olmstead of Lalli off the 40 man to free up a spot.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thornburg profiles best as a RP because he doesn't have great stuff. As a reliever, his fastball would be mid-90s and give him more margin for error. Even with good ERAs, he's been hit hard at basically every level of the minors -- his fb is straight and he tends to leave it 'fat' too frequently. Thornburg is only a viable SP on a non-contending club imo.

[Thurston Fluff]

Have they decided he's a SP or RP? I don't know, but it's been out there that he profiles more as a RP long term than a dependable SP.

 

Would those be the same profilers who thought Segura was destined to be a second baseman? Let them get some time in and see what they can turn into. No need to pigeon hole him into one role quite yet.

[brewcrewdue80]

Like I said, long term Hellweg is supposed to be a Starter. You don't flip roles if the guy that profiles to be the starter as a RP and the guy who profiles to become a RP be the Starter?

 

Hellweg is just as likely to become a reliever as Thornburg is.

 

How dense are you? This really isn't that hard.

 

1. Hellweg goes down to Nashville and continues to start.

 

2. Thornburg, who is in the bullpen takes the starting spot that was occupied by Hellweg.

 

3. A reliever (Jesus Sanchez for example) is called up to take Hellweg's spot on the roster and Thornburg's spot in the bullpen.

 

Really not that difficult.

 

Okay here's the thing. Thornburg is a long RP/SP in your mind. Hellweg is a SP. Your scenario of Sanchez coming up to be a RP removes the long RP role Thornburg occupies. One that Figaro had before Burgos/Estrada's injuries with Gorzo/Hand. I don't know if Sanchez is a long RP but the team at this point is short on those.

 

Thornburg profiles best as a RP because he doesn't have great stuff. As a reliever, his fastball would be mid-90s and give him more margin for error. Even with good ERAs, he's been hit hard at basically every level of the minors -- his fb is straight and he tends to leave it 'fat' too frequently. Thornburg is only a viable SP on a non-contending club imo.

 

This is what I couldn't say but explains the RP role vs. the SP role. Hellweg sits 94-96MPH with 97-100MPH reach back ability as a SP. I don't know what Thornburg sits at but generally speaking, I remember RPs when talked about being RPs vs. SP it's that they gain 2-4MPH on their Fastball and because generally they don't have a great 3rd pitch. The added FB speed with only the secondary pitch plays up enough for an IP or 2 at a time but not when seeing the lineup a 2nd/3rd time through.

 

Remember Aroldis Chapman being a SP for Cinncy this year? His FB went from 98-101 as a RP to him I recall only sitting at 93-94 with it as a Starter. Huge drop off and thus his return back to being a closer.

 

Hellweg's Fastball is a Plus. Plus/Plus I guess since he can touch 100 with it. This even as a Starter. There will be many bats that won't keep up with it. He develops control with the ability to showcase a secondary pitch, that is what gets him in to the thoughts of being a #2 SP Ceiling.

 

I'm not trying to be dense on the situation it's just look at the options?

Take a look at Wade Davis. SP vs. RP. His FB speed increased 2-3MPH and he was lights out last year as a RP. KC meanwhile is using him as a SP and look at him something like a 5ERA vs. a sub 3ERA RP. That's probably what Thornburg is RP vs. SP. with the projections between the two.

[chadomac]

There's no in-game thread today... where am I supposed to complain about how bad Hellwig is?

[fondybrewfan]

He definitely looks like a reliever or AAAA guy at this point. How can you throw 95+ and still not strike anyone out. He has no idea where his pitches are going.

[trwi7]

I believe he's at 13 walks and 3 strikeouts this year.

[monty57]

Okay here's the thing. Thornburg is a long RP/SP in your mind. Hellweg is a SP. Your scenario of Sanchez coming up to be a RP removes the long RP role Thornburg occupies. One that Figaro had before Burgos/Estrada's injuries with Gorzo/Hand. I don't know if Sanchez is a long RP but the team at this point is short on those.

 

I hate the idea of a "long man" to begin with (someone who never pitches unless the starter gets rocked early or injured). Most relievers are converted starters, so any MLB-level middle reliever ought to be able to go more than one inning in an emergency from time to time, and anyone with any concept of how to build a bullpen will have some guys with options so you can bring a fresh arm from AAA if the pen gets abused. So, reserving a valuable bullpen spot for a designated "long man" seems pretty dumb to me. That hatred gets magnified when a young arm is used in this role. If you feel you have to have a "long man" in the pen, at least let it be someone who you don't care if you destroy their arm, their rhythm, and their confidence by not using him for two weeks and then throwing him to the wolves.

 

Thornberg and Hellweg both have some promise. Maybe it's in the rotation, maybe it's in the pen. Neither should be considered for the "long man" role. I'd rather re-sign Livan Hernandez and let Hellweg/Thornberg sit in AAA. If one or both of them fails, and cannot become a viable option for a better role, then fine, stick them in the "long man" role. I don't think we're at the point of giving up on either of them yet.

[Outlander]

I don't really know what constitutes a long man but Sanchez has pitched more than 1 inning in 17/29 games he has pitched in this year so if there is a need to pitch multiple innings it should not be a problem.

[Bikeage77]

From 1250 WSSP: Hellweg sent down to A ball with the Rattlers to maintain his regular pitching schedule.

[DocLuna7]

From 1250 WSSP: Hellweg sent down to A ball with the Rattlers to maintain his regular pitching schedule.

 

No mention of who we are calling up yet as far as I can tell.

[LouisEly]

My money is on Josh Prince until Hellweg's spot comes up, then they activate Estrada or Burgos.

[bork]

My money is on Josh Prince until Hellweg's spot comes up, then they activate Estrada or Burgos.

 

Burgos was optioned and left his latest start early with more soreness. Figaro also had a setback. Estrada still has to go on a rehab assignment. So not real clear about the 4 & 5 starters after the break.

[HiAndTight]

The probablem I see with Hellweg is that he doesn't have a plus 2nd pitch with a average 3rd pitch. Why this kid was in AAA is beyond me. They need to demote him to AA to develop his pitches.

 

Why he was in AAA? Because he was dominating. He was one of 2 pitchers with an ERA under 4.00 and it was under 3.00 in the PCL.

 

Again, I hate to do this because I tend to associate the "boards opinion," which almost always is unanimous or it's dismissed, but Hellweg has shown flashes of a plus slider and a plus change.

 

I'd hesitate to give him another start, but I'm still very much excited about his future. I'm not more disappointed in Hellweg's start than I was in Fiers hot start last year.

 

He has the stuff to be dominant and a #1 pitcher(though I've always said a lot of pitchers have that stuff, but I think it's reasonable(35 pct chance if I had to guess) that he'll end up a #3 starter with a ERA under 4.00.

 

Sending him down to AA does absolutely nothing.

 

 

I'd ALSO like to add it's IMPOSSIBLE to know how Hellweg would have fared as of late had he gotten just good defense. Not great defense. Heck, even average. What should be a couple double plays turns into a couple runs scored. Instead of escaping the inning with limited or no damage bobbled balls, throws to the wrong base(he's been guilty) where he went for the lead out instead of the double play on what should have been routine.

 

Hellweg's numbers wouldn't be good based on how he's pitched either way, but they could easily have been better.

 

He's still got a 6/1 GB/FO ratio, he's got a 96-98 MPH heavy fastball, and two pitches that are hit or miss. He has thrown some VERY good sliders and some even better changeup's(Votto).

 

 

 

The biggest problem I see with Hellweg is even on a site like this that preaches sample sizes, we're giving up on a potential ace after 10 IP and a plethora of poor plays in the IF directly or indirectly leading to runs.

 

Send him down, try out Nelson who I like a little more, and if he struggles, go with Gallardo/Lohse/Gorz/Peralta/Hand with Thornburg as a long man. Or heck, if he keeps pitching well, maybe he ups his trade value(I don't have faith and I don't believe he has the upside of the Nelson, Hellweg, Pena, Peralta, Jungman, even Bradley and other types because of his fastball on a string.

 

He could be thrown in with a guy like Ramirez to off-set the money issue. Just an afterthought.