realistic core pieces

[TheCrew07]

For example, let's say the Brewers catch fire, win 23 of 26 games and are back in the race, and the Rockies offered some type of package that centered around Tulowitzki for Segura. That's the only way I consider trading one of those core pieces.

 

So you'd only trade Segura for a much more expensive, much more injury prone, and much older player at the same position? Don't get me wrong, if I could choose between both players as 23 year olds I take Tulo hands down, but Tulo is 28 and as it turned out has trouble staying on the field. He's only played more than 145 (chosen because that's 90% of a season) games twice and came close 1 other time. I really like Tulo as player but there no way I take any proven star at the SS position over Segura -- his production relative to his cost makes him untradable.

 

My core pieces would be Braun, Segura, and Lucroy, though I'd listen on Lucroy if the offer was good enough. Those are the guys I would build around. After watching Gallardo pitch 90-91 with his FB last night and given his contract situation, he's no longer someone I would even be looking to pickup the options on if the Brewers had any kind legitimate pitching behind him. I was hoping his velocity would gradually creep back up but the only 92 I saw was up and out of the zone. It's been about a month since I last saw him pitch, he just looks... well very ordinary now.

[3and2Fastball]

Braun, Segura, and hopefully whoever we grab with the #5 overall pick next June! (and maybe/hopefully Tyrone Taylor)

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd trade Maldonado, Gennett, Schafer, or Francisco in a split second for a league average starting pitcher or third baseman signed to a reasonable contract. They're complementary pieces, at best, not pieces you build around.

 

I think the obvious suspects of Braun, Segura, Gomez, and Lucroy are the core. None of them, other than Segura, may be untradeable but you don't trade any of them without getting someone that projects as a star in return. Seriously, have we all forgotten what it's like to have a catcher, shortstop, and centerfielder who can't hit?

 

 

Robert I agree in that Lucroy is core worthy. I just keep looking at the spectrum of what are the Brewers capability of competing 2014/15/16? Our big problem is that not only are we behind in the standings today, but our entire minors are far and away behind every, single, NL, Central, Team! So we need to catch up some how. If we aren't going to compete for 2-3 years then expending the players that are pretty much due to leave the team in that time is a worthy idea. Gomez/Lucroy are core guys for us in that term but we expended our core that should have been here in trading for C.C. and Grienke and Marcum. And yes Grienke brought back Segura/Hellweg/Pena but you gotta remember it would be Odorizzi/Cain/Escobar at this moment in time. Players that will/and should provide immediate value now and the foreseeable 3seasons. Lawrie too. It's about depth in talent that we lost and the timing is delayed approximately 2-3 years currently. When our draft picks catch up to being added to the team.

So my focus is to look ahead to what the core could be 3 years from now for the 5years after that. Who's going to be the core of that team? Lucroy/Gomez don't fit that scenario(though Gomez could you just imagine the payday coming should he keep his pace up is outside our ability) So if Lucroy isn't going to fit as a core guy 3 years from now, I look at making him available in trade and riding Maldonado for the seasons we are rebuilding. You would take on 2-4years from now ML ready Upside talent in return thus adding to what the core would become in 2016 and beyond. Or we wait now, next season, and trade Lucroy later and the return becomes 2-4years from now ML ready talent that then makes their appearance on the team 2018-2020 vs. 2016-2018. It's the same with Gomez. The longer we wait to trade these two the tougher is may be to really collect a full roster of high upside talented players to all mesh in to one for a stretch before Braun's swan song.

That's the other thought if we act now with these trades my hope in timing fits in to 2016-2018 before the end of Braun. If we wait 2 seasons we're talking 2018-2020 and Braun is likely not going to be impact player we need rather the guy beginning to make his exit from baseball. Thinking like Yount who's final 4years were of the .700+OPS types not the near .900 it was in his peak age years.

 

I just keep looking at it as hey we trade Aoki or ARam get a couple top 100 prospects great. Now we have 2 to look forward to helping our team. The rest of the NL Central who we are trailing now? They have 5 or more a piece. Cincy/St.L./Chi/Pitt they are going to get better or replace the players exiting with as good or better players over the next 2-3 years.

Competing with these teams now through 2016 just is going to be tough.

[TheCrew07]

I've been thinking something that I forgot to add, but a pretty conservative scenario would leave the Brewers with the 4th best rotation in our own division by next year. If you add Cole and Taillon to the Pirates rotation talent wise I think they are better than the Brewers. I know they've outperformed the Brewers this year but I have hard time believing Burnett, Rodriguez, and Liriano will keep performing at the level they have.

 

For some reason I have an irrational hatred of Rodriguez.

 

I don't think it's really even debatable that the Reds and Cards are already more talented (and younger). The Cards average rotation age is up there right now but they can move away from Wainwright (31) and Westbrook (35) to Wacha and Martinez for 2014 if they want.

[clancyphile]

At this point, it's Braun, Segura, and Lucroy on the field, with Gallardo in the rotation.

 

It maybe a good idea to try to bring Hart back if he misses a bit of time for a couple of years. Lost season this year, but a three-year deal now could come cheaper.

 

After that, look for offers. Maybe move Weeks at the deadline if he keeps the offense up.

[RobertR]

I'd trade Maldonado, Gennett, Schafer, or Francisco in a split second for a league average starting pitcher or third baseman signed to a reasonable contract. They're complementary pieces, at best, not pieces you build around.

 

I think the obvious suspects of Braun, Segura, Gomez, and Lucroy are the core. None of them, other than Segura, may be untradeable but you don't trade any of them without getting someone that projects as a star in return. Seriously, have we all forgotten what it's like to have a catcher, shortstop, and centerfielder who can't hit?

 

 

Robert I agree in that Lucroy is core worthy. I just keep looking at the spectrum of what are the Brewers capability of competing 2014/15/16? Our big problem is that not only are we behind in the standings today, but our entire minors are far and away behind every, single, NL, Central, Team! So we need to catch up some how. If we aren't going to compete for 2-3 years then expending the players that are pretty much due to leave the team in that time is a worthy idea. Gomez/Lucroy are core guys for us in that term but we expended our core that should have been here in trading for C.C. and Grienke and Marcum. And yes Grienke brought back Segura/Hellweg/Pena but you gotta remember it would be Odorizzi/Cain/Escobar at this moment in time. Players that will/and should provide immediate value now and the foreseeable 3seasons. Lawrie too. It's about depth in talent that we lost and the timing is delayed approximately 2-3 years currently. When our draft picks catch up to being added to the team.

So my focus is to look ahead to what the core could be 3 years from now for the 5years after that. Who's going to be the core of that team? Lucroy/Gomez don't fit that scenario(though Gomez could you just imagine the payday coming should he keep his pace up is outside our ability) So if Lucroy isn't going to fit as a core guy 3 years from now, I look at making him available in trade and riding Maldonado for the seasons we are rebuilding. You would take on 2-4years from now ML ready Upside talent in return thus adding to what the core would become in 2016 and beyond. Or we wait now, next season, and trade Lucroy later and the return becomes 2-4years from now ML ready talent that then makes their appearance on the team 2018-2020 vs. 2016-2018. It's the same with Gomez. The longer we wait to trade these two the tougher is may be to really collect a full roster of high upside talented players to all mesh in to one for a stretch before Braun's swan song.

That's the other thought if we act now with these trades my hope in timing fits in to 2016-2018 before the end of Braun. If we wait 2 seasons we're talking 2018-2020 and Braun is likely not going to be impact player we need rather the guy beginning to make his exit from baseball. Thinking like Yount who's final 4years were of the .700+OPS types not the near .900 it was in his peak age years.

 

I just keep looking at it as hey we trade Aoki or ARam get a couple top 100 prospects great. Now we have 2 to look forward to helping our team. The rest of the NL Central who we are trailing now? They have 5 or more a piece. Cincy/St.L./Chi/Pitt they are going to get better or replace the players exiting with as good or better players over the next 2-3 years.

Competing with these teams now through 2016 just is going to be tough.

 

Why are you only looking at prospects? The Brewers have 3 to 5 guys on the team right now that are better than a lot of teams cores. Braun, Segura, Lucroy, Gomez, and a healthy ARam, is a hell of a lot of talent. They're better than anyone the Cubs are throwing out there.

 

The Brewers problem isn't that they don't have talent in their system, because that talent includes the major leagues. Their problem is that they've surrounded that talent with a bunch of sub-replacement level garbage in the starting rotation and at first base. Now, that first base problem is largely due to injuries and stubbornness, but it's not hard to make the case that the Brewers are only 2 to 3 starting pitchers away. Yeah, I know, effective starting pitching is the toughest thing to acquire in MLB, but it also points to what they need to address.

 

Peralta, by many standards, is a top 100 prospect. Nothing says that he won't figure it out and become at least league average soon. Who says Hellweg can't be effective? Or Halton/Morris can't manage to be league average? 2013 is lost for a variety of reasons, but I don't think it's being too optimistic to say that Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, and Hellweg could be the core of a reasonable rotation in 2014. Which isn't to argue that the Brewers shouldn't field offers for Gallardo and Lohse, but only to argue that it's not written in stone that the Brewers can't compete in 2014 with better health and development of some of the prospects they already have. One of the things it's worth noting, it's easy to replace below replacement level performance and improve substantially.

 

Heck, top 100 prospect lists aren't written in stone. Nobody had Lucroy as a top 100 prospect, and he's now, easily, one of the top 10 catchers in the game.

 

The Brewers are quite capable of finding league average players via trade or free agency. Yeah, they should move some guys now, but let's not rewrite history and say that the Brewers had no chance before the season started. At least before injuries set in.

 

The Brewers aren't in nearly the dire straits that they're being depicted at as much of their young or in the prime talent is producing at the major league level. And not a pending free agent in the bunch. This is a group that's much different than the Pirates of the last 20 years because there are legitimate stars in the bunch, at some of the toughest to fill positions.

 

I'll point to the Kansas City Royals as a team which not too long ago was argued as having one of the all time best collections of prospects. And that's not amounted to much.

 

Which isn't to say that the Brewers don't have to do a better job of drafting and developing than they have. But, part of that goal is to develop stars for the major league club. The goal is not to prematurely get rid of your stars on the major league club so that you rank better on prospect lists.

[jackailius]

I completely agree with the fact that if healthy and the stars align next year could be great. I think it will be tough for them not to at least field offers for ARAM though because they will need some salary relief with his contract, at least if they are going to look to fill other holes. I don't think their attendance will be enough to afford keeping all the pieces together. There are ways to work around that type of trade I guess but who fills in at closer? While several of our young pitchers may strike and have great careers, I think it is more realistic that several start the way Peralta has with games that are incredible and some that are miserable to watch, you then have to look at your bullpen and have a pretty good string of long relievers. I can't see them paying Ax next year. That $5M will be a savings that will close to cover the increase in ARAM that you are looking for but now you have a hole. Are you thinking about bringing Krod back? If not there is another hole. I don't know how far you want to stretch the "young arms" we have as far as relying on them for these critical situations. I agree, if Hart, ARAM and Braun were all healthy at the beginning of the year they could have made up for many of the sluggish starts that we got from our pitching staff but I still think that you have to at least entertain the idea of trading ARAM, Yo, Aoki, our relievers, especially Ax and lord please let someone take a flyer on Weeks with his hot streak.

 

RobertR, I can see and agree in context with everything you are saying but for arguments sake, ideally who would you trade, if anyone on our roster and if you trade them what do you realistically see as our 25 man roster for next year?

[Warning Track Power]

For example, let's say the Brewers catch fire, win 23 of 26 games and are back in the race, and the Rockies offered some type of package that centered around Tulowitzki for Segura. That's the only way I consider trading one of those core pieces.

 

So you'd only trade Segura for a much more expensive, much more injury prone, and much older player at the same position? Don't get me wrong, if I could choose between both players as 23 year olds I take Tulo hands down, but Tulo is 28 and as it turned out has trouble staying on the field. He's only played more than 145 (chosen because that's 90% of a season) games twice and came close 1 other time. I really like Tulo as player but there no way I take any proven star at the SS position over Segura -- his production relative to his cost makes him untradable.

Your points about Tulowitzki (expensive, injuries) are valid and I completely understand your point of view. However, Tulo has proven to be a Braun at the SS position. While I do believe we are seeing the real Segura, who knows if this is his career year and he will revert to something less for the remainder of his career. Tulowitzki, when healthy, is a HOF-caliber player who is entering and in the early years of his prime and is a proven commodity.

 

Like you said though, Segura's production relative to his cost is the sticking point. If you could guarantee me Segura is a .300+ hitter with an annual 15-20 HR and 30-40 SBs a season then Segura for Tulo is a loss for the Crew. It's more of an unknown and potential with Segura and the reason why you can't just arbitrarily say no to a Tulo-Segura deal.

[thebruce44]

For example, let's say the Brewers catch fire, win 23 of 26 games and are back in the race, and the Rockies offered some type of package that centered around Tulowitzki for Segura. That's the only way I consider trading one of those core pieces.

 

So you'd only trade Segura for a much more expensive, much more injury prone, and much older player at the same position? Don't get me wrong, if I could choose between both players as 23 year olds I take Tulo hands down, but Tulo is 28 and as it turned out has trouble staying on the field. He's only played more than 145 (chosen because that's 90% of a season) games twice and came close 1 other time. I really like Tulo as player but there no way I take any proven star at the SS position over Segura -- his production relative to his cost makes him untradable.

 

Your points about Tulowitzki (expensive, injuries) are valid and I completely understand your point of view. However, Tulo has proven to be a Braun at the SS position.

 

I'm a huge Tulo fan, but that's just not true. When healthy, Tulo's production has been near or even better than Braun. But he has yet to put together a year near as good as Braun has been these past two and he has been below average in 2 of the last 6 years.

[Warning Track Power]

I'm a huge Tulo fan, but that's just not true. When healthy, Tulo's production has been near or even better than Braun. But he has yet to put together a year near as good as Braun has been these past two and he has been below average in 2 of the last 6 years.

Not sure I follow here. Barring injuries and the SB catergory, Tulo's production has been at or near Braun's while playing SS. I agree Tulo had a down 2008 but other than that year the only thing that has prevented him from Braun-like production is injuries. Like I said in my previous post, the concern with Tulo is injuries and without those he is essentially Ryan Braun at a premium position.

[thebruce44]

What I'm getting at is you can't say a guy has proven to be Ryan Braun when he hasn't actually ever done it. I'm just objecting to the word proven and the implication that they are equal. You can't just remove negatives to say that they are the same player.

 

For an extreme example, Yuni B has probably put together a stretch as good as Ryan has been for 2 years now, but he obviously isn't Ryan Braun. Where do you draw the line?

[chickinbrickin]

Braun, Lucroy, and Segura is the core. There is currently no pitching that this team can build around. Wily will be a nice piece if he puts it together a bit more, but even then I don't think he becomes a core player.

 

Lucroy absolutely is a core player. He is above average offensively (for his position) and defensively, and is priced right. I can't see him going anywhere. Also, no way Coulter stays at catcher; so those talking Maldy filling in until Coulter arrives are dreaming. His bat projects well, but it won't be as a catcher.

[Warning Track Power]

What I'm getting at is you can't say a guy has proven to be Ryan Braun when he hasn't actually ever done it. I'm just objecting to the word proven and the implication that they are equal. You can't just remove negatives to say that they are the same player.

Ah...gotcha. Well, I guess you have me on the injury thing in that it shapes who Tulowitzki is as a ballplayer. One could argue Braun has the fear of a Biogenesis suspension hanging over his head that forms him as a ballplayer too. I won't though. What I will argue is that over a 3 year period, when Tulowitzki was his healthiest, 2009-2011, the numbers show he is close to or equal to what Braun was over the same period.

 

Tulowitzki:

GAMES: 416

HR: 89

RBI: 292

AVG: .304

OBP: .376

SLG: .554

 

Braun:

GAMES: 465

HR: 90

RBI: 328

AVG: .318

OBP: .382

SLG: .548

[TURBO]

Coulter has plenty of time to learn the catcher position, unless they make the decision to move him, which could happen.

 

Segura supposedly wasn't going to stick at SS, look how that has turned out.

[TheCrew07]

Coulter has plenty of time to learn the catcher position, unless they make the decision to move him, which could happen.

 

Segura supposedly wasn't going to stick at SS, look how that has turned out.

 

Did you make it to a T-Rats game or watch any of the games on television where you had the opportunity to observe Coulter's work behind the plate? Or are you basing your opinion simply on, "sometimes scouts are wrong"? I've watched him catch at least 8 games and he's awful, like he doesn't belong at the position at all, and if he made the most progress of any player in the off-season as Matt Erickson said, then there's very little hope, because he still has so far to go.

 

The sooner they move him the better.