Brewers should shop Gomez at deadline...

[HiAndTight]

With all the talk of being sellers at the trade deadline, and it's pretty obvious we're going to be unless Johnny Nelson and Johnny Hellweg can both come up and pitch like Peralta did last year while Peralta can also pitch like he did last year, Weeks gets hot, Braun and Hart get healthy and produce as they have, and Ramirez has his typical second half surge AND our bullpen continues to pitch well while Lohse continues to round into form, we're going to end up with a top 10 pick next year.

 

And while Gomez has been my favorite Brewer to watch and along with Weeks my favorite Brewer during the last couple of years based on how they've played, he's signed to an extremely team friendly contract, even if he were to revert back to his 2012 numbers over the next 3 1/2 years and one of the best contracts in baseball outside of players still under the 6 years of team control if he continues to play like he has.

 

So I think if everything goes well, the earliest the Brewers look like they could be contenders again is 3-4 years down the road...right when Gomez' contract is coming up.

He's been the most valuable player in baseball thus far this season, and I believe he could legitimately bring back 3-4 prospects and two elite prospects.

A team like the D-backs who aren't a big market team, but have loaded up on pitching talent could be the ideal match.

 

With Skaggs, Bradley as the #7/#23 overall prospects in baseball, and Davidson close to the big leagues at 3rd base and a potential long term answer there, a guy like Adam Eaton, Chris Owings, an OF and SS both ranked in the top 100 overall, the D-backs certainly have the prospects to make the deal.

 

In this particular scenario the Brewers could also offer up a guy like Henderson, Axford or K-Rod to help them with their BP which isn't exactly a strength at this point.

 

But they're YOUNG, talented they have 5 top 100 prospects, plus a couple of other intriguing prospects like Zeke Spruill, a potential #2/3 starter down the road.

 

They have a young, talented staff, they have some very nice pieces offensively and if they were to offer Skaggs, Davidson, Owings a talented SS hitting .360 with some speed, power, and a very good defender at SS and then a 4th piece for Gomez, Axford and hell, maybe we eat a big chunk of Aram's deal since Prado's struggling a bit at 3rd right now(plus he can move over to 2nd where they've struggled with injuries).

 

 

Arizona is just an example, a contender that struggles a little bit to score runs right now and could use a big upgrade in CF(offensively, they've got a great defender out there) and at the back of their BP and the Brewers in return could put together a rotation that in 3-4 years could include fireballers Peralta, Skaggs, Hellweg, Nelson, Pena. Schafer IMO is going to be a very good CF'er and going around the horn we'd have our future 3rd basemen, another potential starter in Spruill, Owings still have Lucroy, Braun, Segura(who could move to 2nd with Owings or Owings could play 2nd), and hopefully it'd give all the young players in our system a chance to develop so that we could once again look at a team that has the talent to WIN in the playoffs, not just a team that we're hoping can win 81 games.

 

 

 

Carlos Gomez might really be this good. Everyone knows he's really this talented, but the question is if he's actually going to be able to be consistent. He's the last guy I'd like to see traded, but without this team going anywhere, It'd REALLY be nice to trade a guy at the height of his value and give our rebuilding project a kick. And honestly, even if he is a perennial 25 HR/40 SB 315/.350/.500 GG CF'er over the next 4 years, I think it'd almost be a waste when we just don't have the talent to surround him with.

[LouisEly]

I understand the concern that Gomez's performance so far has been a bit of a mirage and that the Brewers should sell high. That being said, I think other GMs are thinking the same thing - his offensive greatness hasn't been sustained for long enough to give up a lot for him. Melvin has said that you can get more for position players in the offseason than at the trade deadline; it's a bit of a gamble, but I think if Gomez can mostly sustain his performance even with some dropoff (>.850 OPS) over the rest of the season I think they can get a much better haul for him in the offseason.

 

That being said, considering Gomez's age, relatively friendly contract, and defensive ability, someone would have to give up a haul for me to trade him.

 

I do like where you are going with Arizona though. Eaton and Pollock are two of their top prospects and both are ML ready so I don't think they are looking to acquire a CF. But one of K-Rod/Axford/Henderson for Holmberg or Chafin would be nice.

[GAME05]

i'm a fan of trading Gomez now because i think right now his value is highest and i think he nets the best prospect of anyone else we have. even with the possibility of an offensive slide, we can't discount the value playoff teams place on a great defensive outfielder. no disrespect to Schafer, but we've got nobody who could fill the role of full-time CF next year, and Melvin has always hated making trades that create other holes on the team. it seems like if Gomez were to be traded, you'd absolutely have to get a CF prospect back in return, and that's a pretty narrow trade parameter.

[RockCoCougars]

I can't think of one good reason to trade Gomez at this point. The only way that I would even consider it is if a young MLB proven starting pitcher was coming back- like a 1/2 starter type who is locked in for at least 2 or 3 years. Those guys don't grow on trees.

[HiAndTight]

i'm a fan of trading Gomez now because i think right now his value is highest and i think he nets the best prospect of anyone else we have. even with the possibility of an offensive slide, we can't discount the value playoff teams place on a great defensive outfielder. no disrespect to Schafer, but we've got nobody who could fill the role of full-time CF next year, and Melvin has always hated making trades that create other holes on the team. it seems like if Gomez were to be traded, you'd absolutely have to get a CF prospect back in return, and that's a pretty narrow trade parameter.

 

 

I can't possibly disagree with you more about Schafer. He absolutely could fill the role in CF next year IMO, and I think he's played very well when given a chance. I like everything he does. His defense is only a step below Gomez' and I think he can be a guy who hits .280/350. I don't see why he can't be a 3 WAR player.

 

And in fact, Melvin and RR brought Schafer in after signing Gomez to ensure him that they felt he was a big part of their future.

 

So I don't see any need to get a CF prospect in return. Especially when you're talking about trading away a talent like Gomez.

 

You get back the most talented players you can and hopefully a couple of them are elite arms. But again, the point is, I don't think the Brewers can be a 90 win team in the next couple years so if they can trade Gomez and get a couple top 20 prospects....I could care less if one is a CF'er. I'd be just as happy with Logan in Center and then trading Aoki and playing Kentrail or Khris Davis in his spot. The whole point afterall would be that we're rebuilding.

[HiAndTight]

I can't think of one good reason to trade Gomez at this point. The only way that I would even consider it is if a young MLB proven starting pitcher was coming back- like a 1/2 starter type who is locked in for at least 2 or 3 years. Those guys don't grow on trees.

 

 

1-Because his value(before he just got injured) is extraordinarily high and he could single handedly bring back several elite prospects while we rebuild.

 

These guys DON'T grow on trees. But if a team, and the one I used was Arizona because they're in playoff contention is interested, they're young, they're a smaller market team and Gomez has a very good contract, and they have a LOT of pitching, but could really use a bat like Gomez. If they're interested they could give you a kings ransom for him. Again, Tyler Skaggs, Archie Bradley, Zeke Spruill...three pretty good reasons.

 

But there is another reason. He's already had a career year according to WAR. The whole sell high concept the Brewers have yet to master. I think Gomez is most likely a .280/.310 hitter who can hit 20-25 HR's and play great defense and even at that his contract is a steal. I get not wanting to trade him, but not being able to find one reason to trade him?

 

 

The guy is my favorite Brewer to watch, but I just so desperately want to see this team have a top 5 farm system again, and right now they may have a bottom 2-3 farm system. I believe we can spend more money than we are and I believe we'll continue to receive more money from all the big TV contracts, luxury tax..ect...ect...but nowhere near enough to buy a winner.

 

 

 

 

I guess it comes down to this. Do you believe that the Brewers can be a legitimate contender for a World Series or even the playoffs with the farm system and even a few shrewd trades and FA signings over the next 3 years when our needle is pointing straight down right now? If so, then you don't trade him. If not, then bit the bullet and do what's best for the Brewers for the next decade.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well, with Gomez's injury we will see just how well Logan Schafer can play everyday CF.

 

I don't know whether to think ah man the bad luck continues, or to think this is beyond good luck. This entire FO is being handed every reason to make all the right moves to rebuild and fix the mistakes of previous decisions.

If Schafer does well in CF then that clearly opens the door for the OffSeason trade Gomez should be.

All the injuries are going to lead to a top 5 draft pick. Trading away Gomez. ARam/Gallardo too should all net a reasonable return for the immediate future. Every bad thing that keeps happening is actually a good thing for the Franchise.

[HiAndTight]

I understand the concern that Gomez's performance so far has been a bit of a mirage and that the Brewers should sell high. That being said, I think other GMs are thinking the same thing - his offensive greatness hasn't been sustained for long enough to give up a lot for him. Melvin has said that you can get more for position players in the offseason than at the trade deadline; it's a bit of a gamble, but I think if Gomez can mostly sustain his performance even with some dropoff (>.850 OPS) over the rest of the season I think they can get a much better haul for him in the offseason.

 

That being said, considering Gomez's age, relatively friendly contract, and defensive ability, someone would have to give up a haul for me to trade him.

 

I do like where you are going with Arizona though. Eaton and Pollock are two of their top prospects and both are ML ready so I don't think they are looking to acquire a CF. But one of K-Rod/Axford/Henderson for Holmberg or Chafin would be nice.

 

 

 

The off-season works as well. It'd give opposing GM's a larger sample size, but there are also teams that are in contention and in win now modes that MIGHT be willing to give up a lot for him.

 

Arizona has done such a good job assembling young arms while putting a competitive team on the field that they just struck me as a team that could really use him. As for them not needing a CF'er, Eaton is the 73rd prospect according to BA, but he's a light hitting speedster. Pollack I don't think would really be much of a consideration. And again, I'm just hoping that they see an opening and try to go for it right NOW.

 

Heck, Eaton could be part of the deal back.

 

Skaggs+Bradley+Eaton for Gomez+Axford+some cash going back to ARZ. I don't know just throwing things out there. I think it's something worth considering given just how far away this team is right now.

 

Trade Gomez, K-Rod/Henderson/Axford, perhaps Aoki...eat some cash and maybe move Aram and Weeks(provided they're hitting better as the trade deadline nears) and we can put that money into the international pool, get a boatload of prospects back, and we'd likely be in position to grab a top 5 player in next years draft(we may well either way).

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Well, with Gomez's injury we will see just how well Logan Schafer can play everyday CF.

 

I don't know whether to think ah man the bad luck continues, or to think this is beyond good luck. This entire FO is being handed every reason to make all the right moves to rebuild and fix the mistakes of previous decisions.

If Schafer does well in CF then that clearly opens the door for the OffSeason trade Gomez should be.

All the injuries are going to lead to a top 5 draft pick. Trading away Gomez. ARam/Gallardo too should all net a reasonable return for the immediate future. Every bad thing that keeps happening is actually a good thing for the Franchise.

 

That's a good point. Maybe all of this bad luck is actually going to end up being a blessing in disguise for the Brewers. The team is likely to plummet in the standings with Braun and Gomez out for a while. The drop in record could force Attanasio and Melvin to sell. For the short term it might suck and be difficult to watch, but for the future it could pay off big time. I'd rather the Brewers suck for the next 3 years if it means returning to being a contender soon. Gomez is probably the team's best trading chip not named Segura or Braun. I think that Gomez could bring back an elite prospect plus 2 more decent prospects. Different combos of Axford/Henderson/Rodriguez could bring back a good prospect. Gallardo and Aoki could bring back good prospects. A-Ram could bring back someone. Those trades could jump start the farm sytem and reduce the waiting period until the team is a contender. Depending on who we get I would expect a good team by 2016.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Gomez has a left shoulder sprain and he shouldn't really be out long, because nothing is broken. According to Tom H. Schafer will likely start till he gets back.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well PFx that is great news. It sure sounded like he had broken/dislocated his shoulder. A Sprain is really conforting as a broken bone you worry if it affects his play just when he had gotten himself to being the star.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't accept the premise that "the earliest the Brewers could contend is 3-4 years down the road".

 

Well they certainly won't if they trade their best players. They have arguably the best young shortstop in the game, a perennial MVP candidate in LF, a young catcher who's entering his prime, and one of the most exciting players in the game in CF.

 

In the situation the Brewers are in, they are never going to be able to afford the price of top line starting pitching. But they can afford to keep their core everyday lineup for next 3-4 years. Pitching is very unpredictable too. Even the greatest staffs one year can fall apart quickly. Who would have thought before the season that the Giants would have one starting pitcher with an ERA of under 4.40 in late June? Even the teams with the most resources have to rely on luck to an extent with pitching.

 

The biggest mistake ever would be to over react to this season, which has been marred by injuries to key players and less than stellar performance by some pitchers. That happens in baseball. Despite the record of some of the teams in the minors. there are some promising arms that are close to the major leagues. Gallardo and Lohse might not be Spahn and Burdette but they are both decent major league pitchers. A guy like Peralta has the stuff to improve dramatically his results. In short it doesn't take as much as some think for this ship to be turned around.

[brewcrewdue80]

You're right Briggs. But that is the idea for me, in trading Gomez they can attain the SPs to pair with Gallardo/Lohse/Peralta and 1 of the many Hopefuls to pan out in our Minors currently. Schafer is doing an admirable job thus far and the falloff from Gomez to him cant be as much as the immense gain of a Stud Pitcher on the team in replace of who our #5 guy is today.

Maybe even keeping all of the team together for next season done by this one trade would make the team relevant already next year. Morris/Gamel platoon at 1st. Weeks/Bianchi 2b. Segura SS. ARam 3b. Aoki RF. Schafer CF. Braun LF. Lucroy C.

 

This would go on the premise that Gallardo retains his found again velocity, Lohse remains the under 4era guy we hope for, Peralta improves by say 1 full ER on his ERA. The Impact guy we attain as #4. And then it's Estrada/Hellweg at #5.

The problem that arrises though is like Hart, keeping Weeks for his Free Agent year results in nothing in return at the end of the season.

Also, one should assume our BP is about to get barren and need a rebuild/hope on effectiveness with this idea in mind for next season. If you don't pick up Gallardo/ARam options then you lose them as well without getting anything in return so clearly when you do, you're looking at trading them both 2015 at the deadline regardless of how the team stands at that time. Or, the team is forced to hold them and play out their 2015 with Lohse and once again trade away prospects for a key cog for the playoff run in 2015 only to then be completely ruined after it.

[sheetskout]

Skaggs+Bradley+Eaton for Gomez+Axford+some cash going back to ARZ. I don't know just throwing things out there. I think it's something worth considering given just how far away this team is right now.

 

I obviously say this in jest, but what planet do you come from? Because the Brewers would be lucky to get Skaggs for that return much less another top-25 pitching prospect. Archie Bradley and Tyler Skaggs alone are more valuable comodities than Carlos Gomez is by himself. There are like 10 starters in MILB that project to be a high number two or actual number one; and those are two of them.

[brewcrewdue80]

I agree skeet in that Arz wouldn't do the deal. I mean what is the point if Eaton is the CF for them already?

 

Now, In an instant I wouldn't trade Gomez for Skaggs alone. I doubt I'd take Skaggs + Eaton for Gomez though I'd think about and ask for something more. Bradley is the big Star. No doubt a higher ceiling guy than Skaggs. Skaggs doesn't present to me as a sure fire #1 when having been given the chance to show it off. I get the feeling he's going to be like Gallardo a #2 but never a #1.

 

Anyway, Arizona has no need to trade for any of our guys, they are a team filled with talent today and set for the future. The one and only place they may look to improve is their closer situation since Putz and Bell aren't getting it done. But a rental like KRod isn't going to net much. Maybe a PTBNL or cash. Axford not being the closer today, anyone asking for him in trade would be asking for him as a 7th inning guy and what kind of return does that provide? Henderson probably could actually net a top 10 prospect from some other team's farm but certainly not a top 5. Arizona has 14 Blown Saves this year tied for 3rd worst. Boston and Cleveland also are among the leaders(worst) in save conversions/BL Saves. As too is Baltimore.

[JohnBriggs12]

You're right Briggs. But that is the idea for me, in trading Gomez they can attain the SPs to pair with Gallardo/Lohse/Peralta and 1 of the many Hopefuls to pan out in our Minors currently. Schafer is doing an admirable job thus far and the falloff from Gomez to him cant be as much as the immense gain of a Stud Pitcher on the team in replace of who our #5 guy is today.

Maybe even keeping all of the team together for next season done by this one trade would make the team relevant already next year. Morris/Gamel platoon at 1st. Weeks/Bianchi 2b. Segura SS. ARam 3b. Aoki RF. Schafer CF. Braun LF. Lucroy C.

 

This would go on the premise that Gallardo retains his found again velocity, Lohse remains the under 4era guy we hope for, Peralta improves by say 1 full ER on his ERA. The Impact guy we attain as #4. And then it's Estrada/Hellweg at #5.

The problem that arrises though is like Hart, keeping Weeks for his Free Agent year results in nothing in return at the end of the season.

Also, one should assume our BP is about to get barren and need a rebuild/hope on effectiveness with this idea in mind for next season. If you don't pick up Gallardo/ARam options then you lose them as well without getting anything in return so clearly when you do, you're looking at trading them both 2015 at the deadline regardless of how the team stands at that time. Or, the team is forced to hold them and play out their 2015 with Lohse and once again trade away prospects for a key cog for the playoff run in 2015 only to then be completely ruined after it.

 

The Nationals have 3 or 4 guys that would be classified as stud pitchers and they are under .500. The Dodgers have arguably 3 studs in Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu, but are 10 games under .500 mainly because Kemp and Eithier have been awful. A stud pitcher would be great to have, but teams rarely give them up and they guarantee nothing. Teams need balance to win. I like Schafer but the dropoff from Gomez to Schafer is huge. Gomez affects games in so many different ways that Schafer doesn't.

[TheCrew07]

Teams need balance to win.

 

Exactly the point on the Brewer's continual pitching issues. I have no idea why people would rather endlessly debate who should bat where in the line-up and so on when the obvious problem here is pitching.

 

To your earlier post about not being 3-4 years from competing, well "competing" is pretty vague. I are we aiming to be legit WS contenders? Just make playoffs? Play winning baseball to keep the fans in the seats?

 

I really only care about the WS, that's it, if you aim at that high then the rest will take care of itself. I don't believe in "making a run", rather I believe in taking advantage of those who believe in that concept. I'll take a back 6+ years of team control for a young player to give up a proven vet with limited team control 99 times out of 100. The Brewers simply have never had enough talent to run players out to FA and be able to settle for a comp pick. Maybe in the future we can build enough of a talent base that we can ride out a Fielder to FA and not sweat a replacement being 4-5 years away.

 

If you can trade a couple of short term pieces for longevity at greater positions of need the team becomes better, it's really that simple. People get way too hung up on the piece being traded, the idea should be to create as talented a MLB roster as possible. If we can trade Gomez+ who have under team control for 3 more years max, and we have OF depth, to get positions of greater need why not take advantage of another organization? For example if you're Jack Z and your team hasn't done much, would you be willing to keep your job by trading away Hultzen and Walker for Gallardo, Gomez, + (Lohse or whatever it takes)?

 

[pre]Rk Pos Age W L W-L% ERA GS IP R ER ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB

1 SP Aaron Harang 35 3 7 .300 5.29 12 64.2 42 38 70 1.314 10.3 1.5 1.5 8.2 5.36

2 SP Brandon Maurer 22 2 7 .222 6.93 10 49.1 40 38 54 1.682 12.0 1.8 3.1 5.8 1.88

3 SP Hisashi Iwakuma 32 7 3 .700 2.26 16 107.1 30 27 164 0.885 6.5 1.1 1.4 8.0 5.65

4 SP Joe Saunders* 32 5 7 .417 4.48 15 92.1 47 46 83 1.397 9.7 1.0 2.8 4.7 1.66

5 SP Jeremy Bonderman 30 1 1 .500 3.30 5 30.0 11 11 113 1.233 8.1 1.2 3.0 3.0 1.00

6 SP Felix Hernandez 27 8 4 .667 2.71 16 109.2 37 33 137 1.094 8.2 0.7 1.6 9.2 5.60[/pre]

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/24/2013.

 

If you're Milwaukee why wouldn't you make that deal? You get 2 pitchers back with significantly more upside than Gallardo who's FB continues to slide, 2 pitchers you'd control for at least 6+ years, and 1 of those pitchers is an impact LHP of which the Brewers have zero in the organization above R+. Forget about creating holes and please start looking at this from the angle of making the MLB team better long-term. Jack Z has operated as a GM almost exactly like Melvin, which isn't surprising, and if he's willing to make a blockbuster "win now" move, why not take advantage? Sure we may take a small step back in 2013 (I'm not sure that's necessarily true), but it's already a lost season, and we'd be much better off for the future.

 

This *is* about balance, it's about righting the woeful pitching ship our MLB managers have had to captain. Look at the results and average age of our pitchers...see the problem? Every year we need to be breaking 1 impact pitcher into the rotation as the 4/5 so they have room to grow without the threat of being sent down, instead we keep repeating the same mistakes over and over. Larger markets can buy pitching and win, the Brewers simply cannot, we have to develop it or trade for it, and the trade well has run dry.

 

[pre]Rk Year Lg W L Finish RA/G ERA G CG SHO R ER HR BB SO WHIP SO/9 HR/9 PitchAge

1 2013 NL Central 31 43 4 4.65 4.25 74 0 3 344 312 93 206 527 1.326 7.18 1.27 29.1

2 2012 NL Central 83 79 3 4.52 4.22 162 0 9 733 682 169 525 1402 1.364 8.68 1.05 29.0

3 2011 NL Central 96 66 1 3.94 3.63 162 1 13 638 582 147 440 1257 1.240 7.85 0.92 29.3

4 2010 NL Central 77 85 3 4.96 4.58 162 3 7 804 733 173 582 1258 1.438 7.87 1.08 29.2

5 2009 NL Central 80 82 3 5.05 4.83 162 1 8 818 770 207 607 1104 1.467 6.92 1.30 30.0

6 2008 NL Central 90 72 2 4.25 3.85 162 12 10 689 623 175 528 1110 1.335 6.86 1.08 29.9

7 2007 NL Central 83 79 2 4.79 4.41 162 3 6 776 708 161 507 1174 1.399 7.32 1.00 29.1

8 2006 NL Central 75 87 4 5.14 4.82 162 7 8 833 763 177 514 1145 1.380 7.23 1.12 28.3[/pre]

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/24/2013.

[brewcrewdue80]

I find it interesting that Briggs believes Gomez is worth more than a Stud Pitcher+Schafer.

While SkeetsOut sees Archie Bradley and Skaggs are worth more than Gomez.

 

Burgos+Figaro have a combined -1.2WAR in 12Starts.

Gomez has a 4.9WAR on the season

Schafer has a .4WAR in half the appearances.

 

A pitcher we seek in trade should fall in the #2 category so going over #2s

Patrick Corbin 2.8WAR

Julio Teheran 2.2WAR

Ryu 2.0WAR

Alex Cobb 2.3WAR

Anibal Sanchez 2.5WAR

Let's even go Yovani Gallardo .5WAR this year 12.9/6seasons or 2.1Avg WAR prior.

 

So, looking this over a #2 on this team would be worth trading away Gomez if 2 #2s came back in return 4.9-.5 or 4.4WAR and 2.2+2.2+1.2 gained over #5 or 5.6WAR.

It shows off what kind of Value Gomez is worth. Gomez is every bit worth a Skaggs+ or Bradley+ in that the plus should be a #2 potential

 

Gomez isn't a top 20 OF prospect. He IS a top 20OF in all of baseball with top 10 or even top 5 potential. 1 top 20 Pitching prospect isn't going to be worth Gomez and 2 top 30-40 Pitching Prospects should be had for him at minimum.

 

If I said Trade Gomez for Ryu and Corbin type pitchers, would you trade Gomez or Keep him? I don't think the scenario for ARZ trading away Skaggs And Bradley would exist but what about 1 plus 1 of Davidson 3b/Eaton OF/or Owings SS? Prior to this season that would be a steal but now? That's hard for me still to want to part with Gomez. But it is that in which shows what can be had in return for him.

Remember 3years of Gomez. Or 11/12years of the top 2 prospects we get in return for him?

 

The other aspect is how much of a falloff does Gomez have now til he becomes a FA? So the team should have compensation for him at that point being a 1st rd pick. Which should add to his value from the other team's side that it is Gomez Plus 1st rd compensation for 2 Pitching prospects.

Let's not even forget the 24mil ONLY owed to him the next 3years. For a guy who was questionable for a QO or 13mil/yr to now he's worth easily 19mil/yr or higher. That's 57mil in other words or 11mil/year that team should see as able to spend elsewhere to improve their team.

Or that team can just go through the lumps and bumps of watching their prospect learn and mature in the Majors. Sure some get it right away, but look at Gausman, Skaggs, Bauer, Odorizzi, Allen Webster not every top Pitching prospect start off like Miller and Harvey have.

[sheetskout]

Sure some get it right away, but look at Gausman, Skaggs, Bauer, Odorizzi, Allen Webster not every top Pitching prospect start off like Miller and Harvey have.

 

Now tell me about years 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8.

 

Because financially-controllable, potential (and probable) front-line pitching is WAY (and I mean WAY) more valuable than an defensive-first OF who is playing over his head.

 

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying Gomez isn't valuable. But suggesting that Arizona would be open to dealing Skaggs AND Bradley for Gomez (and either, or both for that matter), Axford/Schafer isn't realistic.

 

Frankly, I'm betting if we offered up Gomez for Archie Bradley straight up they would tell us to go fly.

[danzig6767]

 

Now tell me about years 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8.

 

Because financially-controllable, potential (and probable) front-line pitching is WAY (and I mean WAY) more valuable than an defensive-first OF who is playing over his head.

 

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying Gomez isn't valuable. But suggesting that Arizona would be open to dealing Skaggs AND Bradley for Gomez (and either, or both for that matter), Axford/Schafer isn't realistic.

 

Frankly, I'm betting if we offered up Gomez for Archie Bradley straight up they would tell us to go fly.

 

Time will tell on how well Gomez will hit over the next few years, but i don't buy that he's still just a defense first CF. He's not only hit great all of this year, he posted an .809 OPS after the All-Star break last year. So i do believe the days of Carlos just being a great defender/sub-.700 OPS hitter are over. Instead, it's more a matter of is he around an .800 OPS guy going forward or even better who also is an elite defender in CF, an elite base-stealer, and an elite baserunner overall on a team friendly contract over three plus years.

 

That all said, to me there aren't all that many players in pro sports who i'd truly consider untouchable if i was a GM and Carlos certainly wouldn't fit that criteria, as much as i love watching him play. Thus, as with almost any other Brewers players, whether i'd trade him would ride entirely on the players offered in return. Get a fabulous offer, then sure. Get only a decent offer though, i'll pass.

[sheetskout]

Time will tell on how well Gomez will hit over the next few years, but i don't buy that he's still just a defense first CF. He's not only hit great all of this year, he posted an .809 OPS after the All-Star break last year. So i do believe the days of Carlos just being a great defender/sub-.700 OPS hitter are over. Instead, it's more a matter of is he around an .800 OPS guy going forward or even better who also is an elite defender in CF, an elite base-stealer, and an elite baserunner overall on a team friendly contract over three plus years.

 

That all said, to me there aren't all that many players in pro sports who i'd truly consider untouchable if i was a GM and Carlos certainly wouldn't fit that criteria, as much as i love watching him play. Thus, as with almost any other Brewers players, whether i'd trade him would ride entirely on the players offered in return. Get a fabulous offer, then sure. Get only a decent offer though, i'll pass.

 

It may be easier to move Aoki right now and someone else. Believe me I've come to love Aoki (and Gomez for that matter) but if you think about it he's only an attractive player at this price-point. Once he hits arbitration in 2015 it gets dicey.

[brewcrewdue80]

Sure some get it right away, but look at Gausman, Skaggs, Bauer, Odorizzi, Allen Webster not every top Pitching prospect start off like Miller and Harvey have.

 

Now tell me about years 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8.

 

Because financially-controllable, potential (and probable) front-line pitching is WAY (and I mean WAY) more valuable than an defensive-first OF who is playing over his head.

 

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying Gomez isn't valuable. But suggesting that Arizona would be open to dealing Skaggs AND Bradley for Gomez (and either, or both for that matter), Axford/Schafer isn't realistic.

 

Frankly, I'm betting if we offered up Gomez for Archie Bradley straight up they would tell us to go fly.

 

I'd take that bet in an instant. How is it Gomez is only a Defensive CF? Were his offensive numbers last season not good for a CF? How many CFs hit 19HRs or batted above .260 last season?

Your answer: Andrew McCutchen,Adam Jones,Mike Trout, and Matt Kemp. Only Trout had more SBs than Gomez in that group. Add Jacoby Ellsbury of doing so in 2011 with repeats of Kemp/and Jones. Elite Defense?

Now it's McCutchen/Trout.

Bang for your buck? Trout clearly but then in the next 3 seasons its Gomez 24mil, McCutchen 30.25mil, and Kemp 63.5mil. This pretty much makes Gomez the 2nd best CF in the game for the next 3 seasons behind only Trout.

 

Gomez has exceeded expectations but it's not playing way over head. He's backing up the positive signs of finishing his final 266PAs last season of a .282/.328/.508slg batting line. In which he hit 14HRs in that span right in line with his 12HRs in approximately the same span. What Gomez has increased though is having 8triples/18doubles vs. just 11 doubles to end the season with those 14HRs. So the Power hasn't changed.

You can figure that going forward based on last season's final 266PAs and this years 293 that that combined he's a 25-30HR OF who's .500+SLG is real and the Avg is likely to stick in the .280s or higher.

 

I can't fathom a GM declining a straight up trade offer for their top Pitching Prospect for Gomez. Not anymore.

[danzig6767]

Time will tell on how well Gomez will hit over the next few years, but i don't buy that he's still just a defense first CF. He's not only hit great all of this year, he posted an .809 OPS after the All-Star break last year. So i do believe the days of Carlos just being a great defender/sub-.700 OPS hitter are over. Instead, it's more a matter of is he around an .800 OPS guy going forward or even better who also is an elite defender in CF, an elite base-stealer, and an elite baserunner overall on a team friendly contract over three plus years.

 

That all said, to me there aren't all that many players in pro sports who i'd truly consider untouchable if i was a GM and Carlos certainly wouldn't fit that criteria, as much as i love watching him play. Thus, as with almost any other Brewers players, whether i'd trade him would ride entirely on the players offered in return. Get a fabulous offer, then sure. Get only a decent offer though, i'll pass.

 

It may be easier to move Aoki right now and someone else. Believe me I've come to love Aoki (and Gomez for that matter) but if you think about it he's only an attractive player at this price-point. Once he hits arbitration in 2015 it gets dicey.

 

I'm perfectly fine with shopping Aoki. To me he'd be right at the top of my list to shop if i was Melvin given Aoki should be attractive to quality teams needing a leadoff hitter and besides that, he has an extremely team friendly contract all through next year. He'd not just be a three months rental to a contender.

 

That said, whenever it comes to these threads where people post stuff like the Brewers need to trade this or that guy, the bottom line needs to be for what exactly?

 

Obviously this is a sports forum and on nearly every pro sports forum out there, playing a pretend GM with hypothetical trade possibilities is a driving factor in why so many people visit pro sports forums. While acknowledging and taking part in that myself, sometimes it does annoy me a bit though when posters say this or that player should be trading for X package in return or complain if certain players don't end up being traded, even though those posters way more times than not don't really know what offers were legitimately made.

 

Lastly, i wonder if the wild success of Segura will have any impact overall on the trade deadline market this year, especially given contenders no longer get the same draft compensation if/when a rental bolts as Greinke did to LA?

[danzig6767]

 

I'd take that bet in an instant. How is it Gomez is only a Defensive CF? Were his offensive numbers last season not good for a CF? How many CFs hit 19HRs or batted above .260 last season?

Your answer: Andrew McCutchen,Adam Jones,Mike Trout, and Matt Kemp. Only Trout had more SBs than Gomez in that group. Add Jacoby Ellsbury of doing so in 2011 with repeats of Kemp/and Jones. Elite Defense?

Now it's McCutchen/Trout.

Bang for your buck? Trout clearly but then in the next 3 seasons its Gomez 24mil, McCutchen 30.25mil, and Kemp 63.5mil. This pretty much makes Gomez the 2nd best CF in the game for the next 3 seasons behind only Trout.

 

Gomez has exceeded expectations but it's not playing way over head. He's backing up the positive signs of finishing his final 266PAs last season of a .282/.328/.508slg batting line. In which he hit 14HRs in that span right in line with his 12HRs in approximately the same span. What Gomez has increased though is having 8triples/18doubles vs. just 11 doubles to end the season with those 14HRs. So the Power hasn't changed.

You can figure that going forward based on last season's final 266PAs and this years 293 that that combined he's a 25-30HR OF who's .500+SLG is real and the Avg is likely to stick in the .280s or higher.

 

I can't fathom a GM declining a straight up trade offer for their top Pitching Prospect for Gomez. Not anymore.

 

Sure it's possible that Gomez could eventually revert back to being an offensive liability instead of the asset he is now, but i agree with you in that i'd bet against it.

 

For me at least, it's not just his really good stats between the second half of last year and his great stats this year. What makes me not feel the improvement isn't mainly just a fluke is the eyeball test matches the improved numbers. He's hitting balls hard to all fields, not just him trying the pull the ball all of the time. A little better plate discipline.

 

Thankfully Sveum had that conversation with Carlos after which the team stopped trying to make him into a certain type of hitter Gomez isn't capable of being, just as the Twins tried doing. He's not a slap hitter and thus trying to get a bunch more infield hits and walks was realistic. Instead, for all of his speed, Carlos is built more like an NFL safety than some more typically skinny and speedy CF like say Juan Pierre or Ben Revere. Walks will always be a weakness for him and i'm very skeptical the batting average can remain above .300, but his SLG% surge over the last roughly 500-600 at bats i see as being legit and will continue going forward.

[JohnBriggs12]

danzig makes a great point. For the first couple years here, managers were wanting Gomez to bunt his way on and virtually every other AB, he attempted to bunt. Bunting for base hits isn't all that easy especially for a RH hitter, even with Gomez' speed An occasional surprise bunt in fine, but this is a guy who can hurt you with the long ball, so why take the bat out of his hands? He's become a much better hitter swinging away and taking balls to all fields. He'll get his infield hits on as many swinging bunts as he got on intentional bunts anyway.