Gallardo/Aoki to Texas?

[3and2Fastball]

Gallardo likes pitching in the Lone Star state. He's pitching better and Texas needs starting pitching and outfielders. Packaging up Gallardo & Aoki could bring back a nice haul

 

I understand Jurickson Profar is not available (supposedly) and I don't see a ton of great pitching prospects in the Rangers system, so I don't know if there is an obvious fit in terms of bringing back pitching. Mike Olt is no longer a top prospect

 

The Rangers are said to be looking for pitching though

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/trade-deadline-notes-closers-phillies-potential-buyers.html

[craigharmann]

It makes sense, as the Rangers may be needing some more OF help with the possibility of Cruz possibly being suspended....if that happens. But I could definitely see it. Yo grew up in Ft. Worth and still lives there.

 

Rangers top 10 prospects (per BP)

 

SS Jurickson Profar

IF/OF Mike Olt

LHP Martin Perez

C Jorge Alfaro

SS Luis Sardinas

CF Lewis Brinson

RHP Justin Grimm

OF Nomar Mazara

1B Ronald Guzman

3B Joey Gallo

 

They've got 2 pitchers in their top 10. Could be a good fit.

[TheCrew07]

Mike Olt is no longer a top prospect

 

How so?

[paul253]

If I'm giving up Gallardo AND Aoki I'd want Olt, Grimm and Perez. Olt immediately takes over 1st base (or third base if you trade Ramirez) and Grimm can be put in the rotation right away. Grimm seems like he could be a serviceable #4-#5 type. Perez could either be a huge hit or a huge miss. But his ceiling seems to be pretty high at least.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't know about Olt how he stands after (did he fix?) fixing that eye issue. Perez just doesn't seem to have it. Put it this way, he was I wanna say a top 10 prospect in all of baseball and now doesn't even crack his club's top 5. He's been given the chance to play on the ML roster and it hasn't been pretty.

 

I will say that Profar(alone?) or Profar and Gallo for Aoki/Gallardo seems fair. Rangers would have 6years of Aoki/Gallardo after this season so giving up 5+controlled years of Profar shouldn't be looked at in a dim light. I'd ask for Gallo just based on what good does he do for the Rangers currently? Olt is a 3b/1b for 6years, Gallo won't have a place on the team when he should be ready in 3years or less. They also have a kid by the name of Ronald Guzman that is now being worked as a 1b. It sounds like he could turn out special.

 

I will say that if the Brewers could work out Gallardo plus Aoki for Profar. I think Profar would completely open the door to trade away Gomez then for Pitching. And then the ARam deal brings a Pitcher and suddenly the team has something fresh to talk about.

[TheCrew07]

I don't know about Olt how he stands after (did he fix?) fixing that eye issue. Perez just doesn't seem to have it. Put it this way, he was I wanna say a top 10 prospect in all of baseball and now doesn't even crack his club's top 5. He's been given the chance to play on the ML roster and it hasn't been pretty.n for Pitching. And then the ARam deal brings a Pitcher and suddenly the team has something fresh to talk about.

 

So because he got hit in the head with a pitch and didn't light the world on fire in limited ABs when Texas called him up to ride the bench last season he's not a top prospect?

 

Segura hit .209 through his first 72 ABs in August and he had the benefit of playing every day. Olt had all of 33 ABs in 16 games over 2 months last year...

 

I think your expectations are way too high, established MLB players don't consistently produce over the course of a season playing every day.

[Warning Track Power]

If I am trading Gallardo & Aoki to Texas, I fully expect to receive Olt, Gallo & something else. To be perfectly frank, that package isn't very attractive to me even though we likely gain our 1B & 3B of the future to pair with Segura for a darn good IF if they all pan out the way they profile. Trading Gallardo to me should start with Boston and the package should include Ramirez and maybe even Aoki. A package of Middlebrooks, Matt Barnes, & Anthony Ranaudo would do wonders for the Brewers moving forward by giving them pitchers with #1 and #2 potential and gives Boston a darn good chance at making the World Series in 2013 and 2014 with #1-#3 of Lester-Bucholz-Gallardo and a lineup that gets much better immediately with Ramirez and Aoki.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't know about Olt how he stands after (did he fix?) fixing that eye issue. Perez just doesn't seem to have it. Put it this way, he was I wanna say a top 10 prospect in all of baseball and now doesn't even crack his club's top 5. He's been given the chance to play on the ML roster and it hasn't been pretty.n for Pitching. And then the ARam deal brings a Pitcher and suddenly the team has something fresh to talk about.

 

So because he got hit in the head with a pitch and didn't light the world on fire in limited ABs when Texas called him up to ride the bench last season he's not a top prospect?

 

Segura hit .209 through his first 72 ABs in August and he had the benefit of playing every day. Olt had all of 33 ABs in 16 games over 2 months last year...

 

I think your expectations are way too high, established MLB players don't consistently produce over the course of a season playing every day.

 

I didn't say Olt wasn't a top prospect, he is called out as one, but after misplacing him on their roster last season vs. everyday ABs in AAA and then the eye issue this season, that's about 2 seasons of lost progress. He'll be 25 before the end of the season so you're looking at age 26 being his realistic 1st true season immediately following 2 seasons of inappropiate usage/ ie lost value. Clearly Texas mistepped by trying to keep him and not include him in trade, he's probably not in the top 40 prospect in opinion now and the signs are there that he could be complete bust at this point so why trade for him?

 

I am fine if Olt proves me wrong in wanting to overlook him currently, I for sure begged, begged that Olt be traded to our team for Grienke with Perez plus some other player. But now? He's lost so much momentum and time, that I don't think he's worth the risk taking on while giving away Gallardo/Aoki for.

 

Like WTP said above me^ I'd trade Gallardo to Boston for one of their 3b/1b prospects and a SP first then to take Olt plus a Pitcher prospect from Texas currently.

[RockCoCougars]

Based on the early returns, most of those Texas prospects seem to have been overhyped. I certainly wouldn't trade Gallardo for a package built around Olt and/or Perez.

[paul253]

I'm not sure how I feel about Gallo. He's got tremendous power but he strikes out almost every other at bat. And he is still a LONG ways away. He'd easily be our best third base prospect (that doesn't really say much) but if I am going to trade for a third basemen I'd prefer one who could replace Ramirez in 2015, or even 2014 with Ramirez moving to first base.

[Dollarbill13]

Olt is probably a decent buy-low prospect at the moment given that he was a top 20 (ish?) prospect last year. The 32% K rate does worry me, though. Although if we traded for him and he kept up that rate, I think we'd finally have found our replacement for Branyan.

[TooLiveBrew]

Olt is probably a decent buy-low prospect at the moment given that he was a top 20 (ish?) prospect last year. The 32% K rate does worry me, though. Although if we traded for him and he kept up that rate, I think we'd finally have found our replacement for Branyan.

He's posted a .961 OPS since coming back from injury, & I'm not sure he's someone Texas would be looking to sell low on. I also don't get the sense Texas as a franchise would be very inclined to sell low in general... they seem too well-run imo.

[PrinceFielderx1]

If we are trading Gallardo, no matter what, Doug Melvin and the Brewers will be looking for as close to a sure thing as you can get. Remember we are talking 2 years of Gallardo control. You add one of the best leadoff hitters in the game to that package who is only likely to make at most 2.5 million for the forceeble future, and who has like 5 years of control I'd want a top 10-15 prospect in MLB (not on a team, but in all of MLB) and something additional in return otherwise it's a steal for the other team.

[brewcrewdue80]

That's why I mention Profar being reasonable for Gallardo and Aoki. Throwing in another prospect. I said Gallo but that's just with filling in Club needs in mind. Numbers wise at 18 the Guzman kid is intriquing as a 1b prospect. Tall Lefty with projectable power who already hits for average. Already playing at A ball. Seems like a heckuva 1b insurance to have after Morris. Yes you would like to acquire pitching, But who says we cant flip Profar to a team the Rangers maybe didn't want to deal with and then get that pitching? Or you roll with clearly a better offense and hope a trade of ARam nets a SP who can make the team in a year.

When it comes to impact pitchers or really Ace to #2 stuff, I think it takes Gallardo and Gomez to make it happen. I hope ARam can acquire a #2 SP type in return. Aoki I like and think he's worth a top 100 prospect he just is likely a hard sell for a top 100 prospect with high upside. More high Floor or really a #3 Pitcher skills maybe higher but I don't see a top 15 Pitching prospect coming in return for him. Which would be the cutoff line around Gausman and Barnes. You get around 25 and it's Ventura/Biddle/ and Paxton

Cody Buckel and Martin Perez are mid 30th in Pitcher ranking Prospects from Texas.

 

If we trade with Texas, I'm simply looking more for Bats than I am in Pitching. Cant get Profar or Olt? Well Roughned Odor, Luke Jackson, Guzman certainly seem like high ceiling players to go after that the Rangers may not be locking away as untradeable pieces. You take those three with Taylor/Haniger/Roache/Coulter as a core of hitters with 1 pitcher to pair with Braun/Segura who knows where it leads?

 

Then again I go with Gomez bringing 2 impact pitchers from somewhere else..Seattle/NYMets in offseason you suddenly have a lineup of guys to look forward to in a couple of years.

[TooLiveBrew]

Profar plus another prospect for two years of Yo & a so-so outfield bat? That's just not a very realistic price tag imo.

[paul253]

Why not shoot for the sky and offer Gallardo and Gomez for Olt, Profar and Perez?

 

I know it sounds like a lot to ask for but the fact is Olt is really struggling in AAA and Profar is having a so-so year. Gomez's value will never be higher and Gallardo seems to have found something in the past few starts. It would take care of both of Texas' needs and get us three high ceiling prospects, all of whom are ML ready if need be. Perez has struggled pretty bad in the majors but just turned 22 and is killing it AAA this year.

 

Assuming this move is made, the Brewers could also trade Ramirez or Weeks for pitching. If you trade Ramirez Olt could go to first and Profar could play third. If you move Weeks you have all sorts of options. Segura to 2nd Profar to SS. Profar to third Olt to first. Olt to third Profar to CF. Olt and Profar in Nashville the rest of the season and sort it out later.

 

I think that's the kind of deal Melvin should shoot for.

[brewcrewdue80]

Profar plus another prospect for two years of Yo & a so-so outfield bat? That's just not a very realistic price tag imo.

 

Why is what Aoki does with the Bat so-so? Whatever it is, it's better than Elvis Andrus atop the order. It's better than David Murphy.

 

The topic was also stated as a scenario of Nelson Cruz being one of the 100game suspended players thus creating a sudden huge need on a team with non-impressive OFs to begin.

 

Someone said Texas is run to well....Well, they sure screwed up signing Andrus to that 8year extension over just trading him away this offseason and letting Profar take his place. Just dumb on their part. And now they get to work magic fitting Profar in their lineup playing OF I read and there's Olt, who when he's going has no place on the team either. Meanwhile they cant field 2 solid OFs overall while needing 3 out there.

 

Is it realistic? Well, I said they get 6years from 2 players while losing 6years of team controlled Profar.

My other question is, Is Profar truly a #1 prospect in all of Baseball? Is what he going to do make us talk like Miquel Cabrera 5-10 years from now? Or is it that he's just rated that high because for a 2b he's above what is out there or normal? But really among this year's top 100prospects does his next 5-10 years play out to be the best? top 10? Top 40? Puig already looks to be the class of 2013 prospects. Profar hasn't OPS'd above .900 in the minors yet. He's got CS next to those SBs, which leads me to believe he's a 20-30SB guy for a year or two and then you barely see 15 out of him ever again. Is a 2b who OPS's .850-.900 with 20/15 numbers really worth all the hype? His BA is .280s. It'd be something if it were .350+ making his climb but it's .280s.

I have a feeling Profar will never live up to expectations unless they are pedestrian at 25HRs/15SBs at .280-.300BA and OPS in the mid 800s. But isn't that what Brandon Phillips? Aaron Hill? What Howard Kendrick/Kelly Johnson/ and Ben Zobrist are capable of doing? Jason Kipnis potentially?

 

I just feel he's blown out proportion vs. what he's done thus far in his minor league career.

 

How many here would take Profar over the top 15 SP prospects listed: Bundy,Walker,Wheeler,Cole,Skaggs,Yelich,Taillon,Bauer,Hultzen,Bradley,Syndergaard,Martinez,Zimmer,Sanchez,Gausman?

sure maybe 5 of them you would do it but I'm sure 10 of those 15 you would take over Profar.

[TheCrew07]

I know it sounds like a lot to ask for but the fact is Olt is really struggling in AAA

 

Again. No he's not. He was hit in the head by a pitch playing winter league ball, suffered a concussion and damage to the tear duct in his eye. He was having vision problems, he's been hitting the hell out of the ball since the specialists figured out what was going on with his eye as TLB noted.

 

Statistical analysis of prospects is only going to get you so far which is why I don't care for metrics like MLEs. In the case of Olt, looking at his season on the whole tells you about 1/3 of what you really to know which is why Melvin sounded like a dolt when talking about Olt's batting average in his radio interview. He didn't provide any context because he probably didn't know what was really going on, instead he just cracked on 2 of their prospects and the Texas organization in general. He may well harbor some bitterness, but at least they've been to 2 WS, we aren't in a position to throw stones at anyone.

 

A 20 year old SS in AAA putting up an .807 OPS is "so-so"? We're lucky to have to 20 year olds playing a full season at BC, this is a 20 year old playing in AAA. If you're waiting for Profar to dominate before being willing to trade for him then you're going to end up waiting too long, because at that point he's untradable, he's probably untradable anyway.

 

I'm sorry fellas but there is no such thing as can't miss, unless you're Michael Hunt and then Scooter Gennett is can't miss.

 

Finally, Oscar Taveras only has a .784 OPS in AAA right now as a 21 year old in AAA and he may have just broken out of a bad slump last night, but don't think for a minute that if the Cardinals had room for him in the MLB OF he'd still be in AAA...

 

I'm not interested in Martin Perez in a deal for Gallardo, he's got all the stuff and might finally be putting it together, but I don't want to give up our only top of the rotation starter for a toolsy guy who's never performed to his tools. I'd take that kind of upside when trading a rental, but not someone like Gallardo. Nor am I interested in chasing position players for the most part. I could be swayed for a young 3B like Olt, Rendon, or Castellanos (who might actually end up being an OF) but I'd want some sort of impact pitching potential back in those deals as well. Unless we're just trading something like a reliever, then take what we can get, any position player or starting pitcher would be an upgrade value wise.

 

However if we're moving our only impact pitcher in Gallardo then we'd better be trading him in a package deal with a position player or 2 to teams like the D-Backs (Skaggs/Bradley) or Seattle (Walker/Hultzen), a team with multiple top of the rotation prospect starting pitchers between AA and AAA, and yes that's a very short list of teams. Trading 1 for 1 doesn't really help us get ahead. We'd get some instant cost savings and would extend team control the 1 guy we have but long-term we still have a need for 2 other guys to go with the 1 we just acquired. That's more of a treading water rather than get us over the hump type of move. If I trusted Melvin to make more moves for young pitching I could be sold and on a quick cycle of pitching 1 for 1, but I'd rather package Gomez/Gallardo and shoot for something big than make a 1 for 1 trade right now. Next year Melvin might be back to buying and then this pitching cycle of 1 good pitcher with a bunch of leftovers would just end up repeating itself.

 

I haven't written off Peralta, but those that follow the minor league forum know I've never been super high on him, he's always made me nervous. Hell I'm nervous about all our young pitchers, I'd much rather be breaking them in as the 4/5 then counting on them to be the 2 or 3.

[Dollarbill13]

For what it's worth, Olt is still striking out at a 27% rate since returning from his injury. So unless he cuts that down or is able to maintain a very high BABIP in the majors, he's more likely to be a .250 hitter in the bigs than a .290 hitter. Obviously you can still be very successful while hitting .250. I think the point that some are trying to make is that last year it looked like he might end up being Prince Fielder with the bat. Now it looks like he might "only" be a right-handed Jay Bruce.

[Raw Biz]

Now it looks like he might "only" be a right-handed Jay Bruce.

 

I would take that. But if I'm trading away Yo, it's going to be for impact pitching. Ideally, as TheCrew said, you would package Yo with someone to get impact pitching and perhaps a 3B prospect.

[nate82]

 

However if we're moving our only impact pitcher in Gallardo then we'd better be trading him in a package deal with a position player or 2 to teams like the D-Backs (Skaggs/Bradley) or Seattle (Walker/Hultzen), a team with multiple top of the rotation prospect starting pitchers between AA and AAA, and yes that's a very short list of teams. Trading 1 for 1 doesn't really help us get ahead. We'd get some instant cost savings and would extend team control the 1 guy we have but long-term we still have a need for 2 other guys to go with the 1 we just acquired. That's more of a treading water rather than get us over the hump type of move. If I trusted Melvin to make more moves for young pitching I could be sold and on a quick cycle of pitching 1 for 1, but I'd rather package Gomez/Gallardo and shoot for something big than make a 1 for 1 trade right now. Next year Melvin might be back to buying and then this pitching cycle of 1 good pitcher with a bunch of leftovers would just end up repeating itself.

 

Boston actually fits this more and would probably do a deal in Gomez and Gallardo. I don't believe the Red Sox are going to resign Ellsbury and the deal that Gomez signed is probably what they would want to give Ellsbury but I do not see Boras agreeing to that. I believe Ellsbury will get something similar to what BJ Upton got from the Braves or at least closer to that than what Gomez received. But I believe a deal involving Gomez to Boston would happen in the off season and not now. I could see the Red Sox giving up Cecchini, Renaudo, Michael Almanzar and Henry Owens. I was thinking of putting Barnes in there as well but that maybe asking for a little bit to much. So that gives the Brewers a 1B prospect with a lot of power in AA, a league average 3B, a strong SP in Renaudo and a work in progress in Henry Owens who could add more velocity. Another idea would be to trade for Rubby De La Rosa, Cecchini, and Blake Swihart. I really like Rubby De La Rosa more than Renaudo, Barnes, or Webster as I think he is more polished and has more tools as a pitcher than any of those three.

 

Watch his fastball at about the 30 second and 50 second marks as it has some really nice movement on his fastball at 98+. http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17292835&c_id=mlb

 

De La Rosa definitely has the makings of a future ace or at the very worst he is a future late inning reliever. I am not sure he is who I would want in return for Gallardo as the center piece. I would really want something like Renaudo and Barnes along with Cecchini or Swihart.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think the Brewers can deal Gallardo without getting at least one top of the rotation prospect who's within a year of the big leagues back. While all prospects have questions, the guys Texas could come up are a bit too risky for my blood. The Brewers have some guys like that already.

 

I'm sure Texas would love a combo of Gallaro and Aoki, but I don't see it happening.

[brewcrewdue80]

http://mlbreports.com/2013/06/18/gallardotrade/

 

There was this posting about Gallardo trade market. Really these 4 teams to trade with who would we even bother asking for?

If Gausman isn't available Baltimore really doesn't have enough guys I'd take in for Gallardo.

Angels? Huh? We got the guys we wanted last season from them, I don't think the Angels have prospects left to attain Estrada!

Giants, they have Crick but beyond that does anyone else read out as Pitcher of the future?

Then there's Cleveland. Bauer? Imagine Uecker watching Peralta/Bauer as Starters. 4-7BBs games? Danny Salazar?

I just don't see the talent on these teams to want to trade with. Figuring Gausman/Bauer are off the market. It leaves Crick plus who? Maybe you go with Stratton or Blackburn and take on Catcher Andrew Susac. End result moving Coulter from Catcher duties.

[danzig6767]

Based on the early returns, most of those Texas prospects seem to have been overhyped. I certainly wouldn't trade Gallardo for a package built around Olt and/or Perez.

 

I'll admit that i don't follow the prospects on other teams really closely, so can someone explain to me the hype behind Martin Perez?

 

I understand that stats aren't everything when it comes to rating prospects, but the minor league stats for Perez have ranged from very mediocre to bad at most of his stops so far. Lots of walks. More than a hit per innings pitched. Nothing special strikeout rates. Career 1.445 WHIP. So what is it about Perez that has had him so highly rated? Does he throw in the high 90's and/or have great offspeed stuff when his command is on?

[brewcrewdue80]

Yes Danzig when I read the Scouting on him its that he has supposedly a Plus changeup to go with 93/4MPH fastball. Something I guess if harnessed he'd potentially pose some lights out outings. The other would be that he made it to AA ball as an 18yr old. But yes, he's really stalled ever since then when it comes to stats.