I'll Believe It When I See It (Brewers selling big at the deadline)

[fondybrewfan]

Like I said before; unless you are going to get elite prospects than what is really the point? No one the Brewers would realistically trade other than Gomez, would bring back anyone better than in our farm system right now. There is no point to blowing up the team if you aren't going to get prospects better than you already have. Ramirez, Aoki, Gallardo, Lohse, Axford aren't bringing anyone elite back. Gomez would seem very likely to not get traded. Unless they are in full blow up mode they won't trade Gallardo or Lohse because there really is no one behind them in MLB worth a lick.

 

Fans may want to trade these guys; but I would temper enthusiam about what we could actually get back. Based on my opinion of their trade value I don't think it will be worth it and we might as well hope the team rebounds next year.

[Thurston Fluff]

Besides the fact that Peralta throws hard, what else is there to say he has a high ceiling?

 

It has been said by many people inside and outside the organization that he has great pure stuff not just that he throws hard. His main issue is throwing strikes.

 

Only 45 K's in 80 innings. A brutal 45/32 K/BB ratio. A brutal 1.663 WHIP. He wasn't exactly dominant in the minors either with a career 1.410 WHIP, including a 1.582 last year in AAA.

 

I think he has to learn to use all his pitches. Right now according to fangraphs he uses his fastball and slider around 92% of the time. That in turn seems to me more about trusting his stuff or not having enough control to use all his pitches right now. I think that also is a major reason for his high WHIP. Something you might want to look at throughout his career is he gets better as the season goes on. That happened at pretty much every level he was at. That would be another signal to me that his issues are control, not stuff, related. Control is the one thing a player can learn. Stuff not so much. Given his age and the fact that Peralta was converted from a position player it shouldn't come as a surprise that his control is lagging. That does not change how high his ceiling is.

[Bombers]

As far as Aoki is concerned, we say "he is over 30 so we should dump him" - Other teams know his age too. We say, he would be worth something and should get a good piece for him. But from who? You could probably cross off the small market teams. I would assume they are not going to trade pitching for a RF. So that leaves you the mid to large market teams. Most of which already have a middle of the road RF. Aoki is 11th in WAR for RF with 200+ AB. wOBA puts him at 12th. Even last year he was around 12/13th in WAR / wOBA. So what is his value? I highly doubt it is a AAA pitcher that is busting at the seems to just be added to a big league staff.

 

For the 2013 season, there are 30 RF's with 160+ AB's. The bottom 11 in terms of WAR are:

20. Drew Stubbs (.7) - Indians - .233 / .286 / .376

21. Torii Hunter (.7)- Tigers - .292/.341/.407

22. Jason Bay (.7)- Mariners - .222 / .311 / .395

23. Nick Markakis (.7)- Orioles - .294 / 341 / .422

24. Nelson Cruz (.6)- Rangers - .258 / .324 / .500

25. Andre Either (.5)- Dodgers - .249 / .328 / .373

26. Josh Redick (.5)- A's. - .211 / .302 / .340

27. John Mayberry (.5)- Phillies - .261 / .315 / .451

28. Josh Hamilton (.3)- Angels - .213 / .271 / .384

29. Ichiro Suzuki (.2)- Yankee's - .265 / .308 / .338

30. Michael Morse (.1)- Mariners - .259 / .318 / .468

 

Aoki has a .9 WAR with a .297 / .369 / .392

 

Looking at that, who makes a good fit?

Oakland? - I don't see them trading young pitching for Aoki. The Yankee's - Give up on Ichiro? Don't see that either. The Dodgers??

[danzig6767]

Besides the fact that Peralta throws hard, what else is there to say he has a high ceiling?

 

It has been said by many people inside and outside the organization that he has great pure stuff not just that he throws hard. His main issue is throwing strikes.

 

Only 45 K's in 80 innings. A brutal 45/32 K/BB ratio. A brutal 1.663 WHIP. He wasn't exactly dominant in the minors either with a career 1.410 WHIP, including a 1.582 last year in AAA.

 

I think he has to learn to use all his pitches. Right now according to fangraphs he uses his fastball and slider around 92% of the time. That in turn seems to me more about trusting his stuff or not having enough control to use all his pitches right now. I think that also is a major reason for his high WHIP. Something you might want to look at throughout his career is he gets better as the season goes on. That happened at pretty much every level he was at. That would be another signal to me that his issues are control, not stuff, related. Control is the one thing a player can learn. Stuff not so much. Given his age and the fact that Peralta was converted from a position player it shouldn't come as a surprise that his control is lagging. That does not change how high his ceiling is.

 

Peralta started pitching for the Brewers in 2006 when he was 17. It's not like he switched to pitching only say 2-3 years ago. In all of those years pitching, command has been a consistent problem for him. This isn't a new issue to pop up by being in the majors.

 

FWIW, i'm not implying that i want Willy demoted back to the minors. My only point is that guys with command problems like he's had his whole career don't ever find that needed command to become really good more often than guys do learn to consistently command their pitches. MLB has been littered with guys forever who throw hard like Peralta, but never amount to much because of poor command. That's a skill as much as throwing hard is.

[3and2Fastball]

Trading Greinke was necessary because he was about to become a free agent and we were out of it

 

Melvin has never traded away good/significant players who are under team control with a few years left on their contract, has he?. Mark A seems constantly concerned with public perception of the Brewers being a team that tries to be a "winner", that is why I see no reason to think the Brewers will make significant trades as sellers, other than to try to move Hart (if he's even back) or other players who could just walk after the 2013 season

[trwi7]

in 2011 we weren't in first at this point, and people were declaring that we should sell everything.

 

Don't know if it's been posted yet but yes we were.

[RockCoCougars]

If Gallardo continues pitching well, he'd bring back some good value, Henderson would have some as well if he picked up where he left off pre-injury. The rest of those guys, I just don't see much coming back at all. I look at what the Phillies did last year, and their haul was underwhelming to say the least (e.g. getting nothing for Pence). If the Brewers want to move a lot of these vets, it isn't going to be for much more than salary relief.

[nate82]

If Gallardo continues pitching well, he'd bring back some good value, Henderson would have some as well if he picked up where he left off pre-injury. The rest of those guys, I just don't see much coming back at all. I look at what the Phillies did last year, and their haul was underwhelming to say the least (e.g. getting nothing for Pence). If the Brewers want to move a lot of these vets, it isn't going to be for much more than salary relief.

 

What the Phillies got nothing for Pence that is news to me. The Phillies got the Giants 2nd best prospect in their farm system in Tommy Joseph a 1B/C who has a lot of power and is currently ranked as the 3rd best prospect for the Phillies this year.

[pebadger]

I honestly thought this team had a puncher's chance at the postseason this year if the starting pitching was somewhere near average. It hasn't been, so I guess we'll never know. If the lineup stays intact we could hope to find out next season, but then there is no guarantee the pitching will be any better (God help us if it's any worse).

 

The bottom line is that you need to have five starting pitchers on your MLB club. To my way of thinking you need to have your sore 2 and 3 guys lined up and make sure they stick around. I don't see any point in just gutting a staff, and that's what you'd be doing if you got rid of Gallardo. He's not a 1, but you're not getting value for him in a trade IMO. He's a block to build on and keep you club from just being horrible.

 

I wouldn't trade Gomez. I would hesitate to trade Aoki, but if there is a good deal to be made I'd be sort of OK with it, depending on the deal. Everyone else outside of Braun and Lucroy I'm fine with dealing, though even Lucroy isn't untouchable. I just don't know who's really going to be in the market for most of these pieces in any really enthusiastic way. It takes two to make a deal and I don't know who's really that interested in most of the pieces the Brewers have.

[RockCoCougars]

If Gallardo continues pitching well, he'd bring back some good value, Henderson would have some as well if he picked up where he left off pre-injury. The rest of those guys, I just don't see much coming back at all. I look at what the Phillies did last year, and their haul was underwhelming to say the least (e.g. getting nothing for Pence). If the Brewers want to move a lot of these vets, it isn't going to be for much more than salary relief.

 

What the Phillies got nothing for Pence that is news to me. The Phillies got the Giants 2nd best prospect in their farm system in Tommy Joseph a 1B/C who has a lot of power and is currently ranked as the 3rd best prospect for the Phillies this year.

 

I look more at stats than magazine rankings, and this Joseph guy looks to be nothing special to me. Apparently, he's been brutal in AAA this year both offensively and defensively.

[RWeeksFan23]

As far as Aoki is concerned, we say "he is over 30 so we should dump him" - Other teams know his age too. We say, he would be worth something and should get a good piece for him. But from who? You could probably cross off the small market teams. I would assume they are not going to trade pitching for a RF. So that leaves you the mid to large market teams. Most of which already have a middle of the road RF. Aoki is 11th in WAR for RF with 200+ AB. wOBA puts him at 12th. Even last year he was around 12/13th in WAR / wOBA. So what is his value? I highly doubt it is a AAA pitcher that is busting at the seems to just be added to a big league staff.

 

For the 2013 season, there are 30 RF's with 160+ AB's. The bottom 11 in terms of WAR are:

20. Drew Stubbs (.7) - Indians - .233 / .286 / .376

21. Torii Hunter (.7)- Tigers - .292/.341/.407

22. Jason Bay (.7)- Mariners - .222 / .311 / .395

23. Nick Markakis (.7)- Orioles - .294 / 341 / .422

24. Nelson Cruz (.6)- Rangers - .258 / .324 / .500

25. Andre Either (.5)- Dodgers - .249 / .328 / .373

26. Josh Redick (.5)- A's. - .211 / .302 / .340

27. John Mayberry (.5)- Phillies - .261 / .315 / .451

28. Josh Hamilton (.3)- Angels - .213 / .271 / .384

29. Ichiro Suzuki (.2)- Yankee's - .265 / .308 / .338

30. Michael Morse (.1)- Mariners - .259 / .318 / .468

 

Aoki has a .9 WAR with a .297 / .369 / .392

 

Looking at that, who makes a good fit?

Oakland? - I don't see them trading young pitching for Aoki. The Yankee's - Give up on Ichiro? Don't see that either. The Dodgers??

Detroit maybe, he'd be an upgrade in LF over Dirks. Or the Rangers to be their CF.

[CheezWizHed]

Aoki has a .9 WAR with a .297 / .369 / .392

 

The key is probably what team would be looking for a lead-off hitter. At .369, Aoki is light years ahead of those other guys. If you team is heavy on SLG and needs balance that might also trigger a trade for Aoki.

[Invader3K]

It's not like Aoki _has_ to bat leadoff either. He could easily slot into a number 6 or 7 spot in a playoff caliber team's lineup, or maybe even bat #2.

 

Regarding the starting rotation, while I don't think the pitching is as bad as what we've seen this year, I don't think going with basically the same rotation next season and hoping for better results is much of a plan either. An improvement of a couple wins per pitcher still doesn't make this even a Wild Card contender in the NL right now.

[thebruce44]

As far as Aoki is concerned, we say "he is over 30 so we should dump him" - Other teams know his age too. We say, he would be worth something and should get a good piece for him. But from who? You could probably cross off the small market teams. I would assume they are not going to trade pitching for a RF. So that leaves you the mid to large market teams. Most of which already have a middle of the road RF. Aoki is 11th in WAR for RF with 200+ AB. wOBA puts him at 12th. Even last year he was around 12/13th in WAR / wOBA. So what is his value? I highly doubt it is a AAA pitcher that is busting at the seems to just be added to a big league staff.

 

For the 2013 season, there are 30 RF's with 160+ AB's. The bottom 11 in terms of WAR are:

20. Drew Stubbs (.7) - Indians - .233 / .286 / .376

21. Torii Hunter (.7)- Tigers - .292/.341/.407

22. Jason Bay (.7)- Mariners - .222 / .311 / .395

23. Nick Markakis (.7)- Orioles - .294 / 341 / .422

24. Nelson Cruz (.6)- Rangers - .258 / .324 / .500

25. Andre Either (.5)- Dodgers - .249 / .328 / .373

26. Josh Redick (.5)- A's. - .211 / .302 / .340

27. John Mayberry (.5)- Phillies - .261 / .315 / .451

28. Josh Hamilton (.3)- Angels - .213 / .271 / .384

29. Ichiro Suzuki (.2)- Yankee's - .265 / .308 / .338

30. Michael Morse (.1)- Mariners - .259 / .318 / .468

 

Aoki has a .9 WAR with a .297 / .369 / .392

 

Looking at that, who makes a good fit?

Oakland? - I don't see them trading young pitching for Aoki. The Yankee's - Give up on Ichiro? Don't see that either. The Dodgers??

 

I don't think anyone is saying to shop him because he's 30 and thats some magical cutoff age. Its just that a 30 year old player makes a lot more sense on teams trying to compete now instead of one looking at a potential rebuild.

 

In terms of what teams would be interested, wouldn't you think he could also play LF? He would be an improvement for The Yankees, Rangers, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Reds, Nationals, Phillies, Angles, and Rockies based on WAR at either corner OF position.

[Roderick]

I am fine with trading Hart as he is gone after this season anyhow,

 

To my reckoning, the longer he is out the better his chances of ending up with the Brewers next year.

 

If he comes back and is just middling at best for two months, who is going to give him a decent long-term offer?

 

So if he ends up looking for a one year deal, maybe the Brewers get into the mix (especially if Morriss, Halton, Francisco don't force their way into the spot).

 

Not my preferred scenario, but I could see it happening, especially if they have moved ARam and/or Weeks.

[Thurston Fluff]

Melvin is that you? Once again that's not really what I said, I'm talking about making the MLB team as a whole better. We have plenty of OF depth, it's not creating hole anymore than trading Hart would have created a hole. A "hole" is our pitching staff, not a place where we have depth.

 

You said and I quote

The problem is this, if you won't trade a productive hitter like Gomez or Aoki, then I would like someone to explain how exactly we will ever get the impact pitching to match-up with post season rivals?

It seems to me that is saying trade one of our outfielders for impact pitching. The outfield depth you speak of is Gindl, Schafer, Davis, Prince and Halton. None of which posted an OPS in AAA above .831. Three of them have (or had in the case of Schafer) one under 800 in AAA. That seems more like a bench player than a starting caliber outfielder on a competitive major league roster. To me that is a text book definition of creating a hole to fill another. That all assumes of course that Aoki or Gomez would land you an impact pitcher to match-up with post season rivals. Something I highly doubt. So to reasonably get that type of player you have to trade even more than one outfielder. Which only creates more holes.

 

Peralta started pitching for the Brewers in 2006 when he was 17. It's not like he switched to pitching only say 2-3 years ago. In all of those years pitching, command has been a consistent problem for him. This isn't a new issue to pop up by being in the majors.

He's been a pitcher for seven years. Not as a professional mind you. Seven years from when he started to pitch. That isn't exactly an eternity. I never said it was an issue that just popped up. I said the exact opposite. With the rather short time he has been pitching as an example of why that might be. Also why there is hope his control issues will get better with time.

[gregmag]

I don't love the idea of trading Aoki. He's cost-controlled, he's productive, and his skills should age pretty well. He also seems like the kind of player who gives you more value on the field than he'd bring back in a trade, although I can't quantify that. He's well suited to the leadoff role, which is one the Brewers have had a hard time filling.

 

But I think it's reasonable to expect one (or some platoon combination) of Gindl, Schafer, Davis, and Prince to provide a reasonable facsimile of Aoki's aggregate production in the near future.

 

Nori put up a .787 OPS last year, and he's at .761 this year. Call him a .780 OPS hitter.

 

Schafer is 26; he OPSd .770 at AAA at 25, and he has a .699 OPS in 134 MLB PAs. He would have to take a step forward to match Aoki's production, and he's not prospect young, but he's young enough that he might be able to get there.

 

Davis is 25. He, of course, ripped the cover off the ball last year in limited duty at AA (1.124) and AAA (.936). He also, of course, hasn't been able to get traction this year; but even in a horrific slump, experiencing the majors-minors yo-yo for the first time, he's still OPSing .729. If his true AAA level, right now, sits between this year's and last year's small samples -- say, .830 -- he has a very good chance to match Aoki's MLB production.

 

Prince is also 25. He's OPSing .785 this year at AAA. That's off a .249 BA, and his strikeout totals are reasonable, which leads me to think he's having some bad BABIP luck. OTOH, he's never hit like this before, so maybe he's having good luck on HR/FB ratio or something. He has the upside to match Aoki, but he would need to take a big step forward.

 

Gindl is 24. He has OPSd .862, .740, and so far .797 in three years at AAA. If he's a true .800 OPS guy at AAA at 24, he's in a comparable position to Khris Davis, given another year of development time.

 

Davis and Prince bat right, while Gindl and Schafer bat left, so the group gives you good platoon options. I'm underselling Aoki a bit because of the outsized importance of OBP, which is his strength; but the guys we're talking about haven't been heavily weighted toward SLG in the minors, so I don't think that factor adds much to their challenge of matching Aoki. Given the data, I don't think a lack of viable replacements is a reason to avoid trading Aoki.

[Thurston Fluff]

Very reasonable assessment gregmag. It certainly gives me pause on how much of a hole it would cause in the lineup. That said how does a .780 OPS outfielder land you, as TheCrew07 put it, "impact pitching to match-up with post season rivals?" Aoki might be a good trade candidate to get us a young adequate 3rd base prospect who is in AA or something but he isn't going to land you even one season of an ace. If he does Doug deserves a raise. I think it does mean Aoki can be traded for a position we have less viable options at. Of all the players he is probably the most tradable without leaving a huge hole on the roster. But I think those type of trades net the most in the off season when team are building their teams.

[TheCrew07]

The answer regarding how would we get a top of the rotation starter for Aoki would be simple, you take the best talent available. Once you start placing limits on the talent you want back such as MLB ready or AA you arbitrarily limit your options.

 

I'd take an A ball pitcher for him like Stephenson, Guerrieri, De Paula, Glasnow, CJ Edwards... yes I know some of those guys are from the division but I'm just saying that I'd go down to A ball to get better talent if I had to.

[torts]

I had no idea Peralta has only been pitching for 7 years. thats crazy.

[Thurston Fluff]

The answer regarding how would we get a top of the rotation starter for Aoki would be simple, you take the best talent available. Once you start placing limits on the talent you want back such as MLB ready or AA you arbitrarily limit your options.

30 something corner outfielders with marginal power just aren't valuable enough to give up a player of the caliber you spoke of. Regardless of age or stage of development. I think you are simply overrating Aoki's value.

[TheCrew07]

30 something corner outfielders with marginal power just aren't valuable enough to give up a player of the caliber you spoke of. Regardless of age or stage of development. I think you are simply overrating Aoki's value.

 

I may be overvaluing what 4 years of a productive yet unspectacular OF (I think he could play CF) might be worth but at least I'm willing to go a different direction and attempt to fix the organization's main problem. Furthermore I never limited my trade options to Aoki, that's a creation of those who can't seem to fathom selling on high Gomez for that type of pitching when we have Schafer to replace him, coupled with the fact that we aren't winning with Gomez/Ramirez/Aoki and won't win with them unless we get better pitching.

 

I think there are an awful lot of people who look very hard for reasons not to do anything, which is something I'm not predisposed to do. We "can't" do this, we can't trade him, we can't, we can't, we can't. Why not? Isn't doing something different better than doing nothing?

 

I say again, if you don't like the idea of trading established players to go after the pitching we desperately need then what's your plan? How do we fix the pitching situation beyond "hoping" that some of our minor league pitchers ascend? My father had an annoying saying that I hated as a kid, but seems spot on in this case, "You can wish in one hand and poop in the other, then see what you get more of..."

 

Peralta doesn't have the control or pure stuff to be a #1, he could be a nice #2, but at some point he has to start ascending from a performance standpoint. Nelson could be a solid #3 and is now getting his feet wet in AAA. Hellweg walks almost as many hitters as he strikes out in AAA so I don't see him as a top of the rotation candidate, Thornburg has struggled going back to last year, Jungmann doesn't have top of the rotation stuff nor does Bradley, and Pena is a bit of an enigma. He was awful after getting blasted in the Futures game last year, started this year very slow, but he's been on fire lately. However, Pena also walks too many hitters. Of all those guys I think Thornburg and Pena are our best bets for #2s, but I'm not going to hold my breath waiting on it either. Just because Jungmann and Bradley were drafted high doesn't mean they are impact pitchers.

 

We need 2 more legitimate #2s with 3+ years of team control to slot with Gallardo and we're a completely different franchise, if we can't find MLB ready-AA guys who fit that mold as trade options, then you go deeper down the chain acquiring as much potential top of the rotation potential as you can. It doesn't have to be Aoki, it doesn't have to be this season, if someone offers impact pitching for one or more of our aging MLB roster take the deal. I don't care of it's Lohse, any of the relievers, Gomez, Aoki, or Ramirez. Just say yes to impact pitching.

 

2 trades and we could be on a different path as an organization.

[Thurston Fluff]

I may be overvaluing what 4 years of a productive yet unspectacular OF (I think he could play CF) might be worth but at least I'm willing to go a different direction and attempt to fix the organization's main problem. Furthermore I never limited my trade options to Aoki, that's a creation of those who can't seem to fathom selling on high Gomez for that type of pitching when we have Schafer to replace him, coupled with the fact that we aren't winning with Gomez/Ramirez/Aoki and won't win with them unless we get better pitching.

 

You are making unrealistic assumptions of what these players will get you. That isn't going in a different direction that is living in fantasy land. Aoki isn't going to land us that type of player and Schafer is nowhere near the player Gomez is. Five tool players do not grow on trees. So by trading him we go back to creating a hole to fill another. I know you don't think you are saying that but look at it realistically. We have very mediocre outfield depth. As I have pointed out already. Gregmag pointed out correctly that Aoki could be expected to be reasonably replaced by the likes of Schafer or one of our other sub .831 OPSing AAA players. If you think any of them are going to come close to Gomez's current production you are certainly not looking at their actual production. Thus you are creating a hole without sufficiently filling it. You can't have 2/3rds of an outfield putting up sub .800 OPS's and expect the offense to just click along. You are basing your arguments on what you want them to do not what they are actually doing.

[xisxisxis]

You can't have 2/3rds of an outfield putting up sub .800 OPS's and expect the offense to just click along.

 

This sort of thinking is so myopic. Yes you can have 2 OF's with OPS's below 0.800 if you have significant production in the other positions and/or you make up for it in the pitching staff you assemble. The Giants have won 2 world series in the last few years with pretty pedestrian/crappy offenses because there pitching was so good. Winning is as simple as scoring more runs than you give up. A 1-0 win counts the same as an 11-10 win.

 

The scenario is pretty simple. You are trading player A (let's say Gomez) and getting back a pitcher (player B). You replace Gomez in the lineup with Shafer (Player C) and start the pitcher and drop Peralta, Figaro, or any below replacement level starter (player D). To improve the team you need this:

 

B + C > A + D

 

That's a basic scenario. You just need to improve the pitching more than you take a hit on the loss of Gomez. Things get more complicated when you add more players and deal with prospects, but what I am saying, what TheCrew is saying and others are saying is that you need to continue to improve the OVERALL talent on the team and organization to get to a point where you can compete routinely. By reducing the talent (which is what Melvin has done for quick fixes and going all-in for 2011) we get to the situation where we are right now. We have an organization teetering on a huge talent deficit and nobody wants to trade anything of value because how do we replace "a five-tool player" and still win. You replace a 5-tool player by getting more talent back than you give and you don't mortgage the future for a weak attempt at one playoff appearance. You build for the future adding talent and, yes, you have to trade talent to get talent. Especially when you have a scouting and player development system that doesn't deliver.

[thebruce44]

We need to compartmentalize the entire roster into 25 divisions. Only when each equally important compartment is successful will the team as a whole be successful. So to lower one compartment to improve another, equally important compartment, is pointless. Moving on.