I'll Believe It When I See It (Brewers selling big at the deadline)

[3and2Fastball]

The more I think about it, the less likely I think it is that the Brewers will trade significant players at the trade deadline. I believe that the Brewers think they can contend in 2014

 

I think that they should trade Gallardo, Lohse, Aoki, K-Rod, Axford, Ramirez and restock their farm system with multiple great prospects.

 

Somehow though, as the title says "I'll Believe It When I See It". As much as it makes perfect sense to sell big at the deadline to many of us here at Brewerfan.net, I think Mark A & Doug Melvin sincerely believe the line of "several players are underperforming and that along with all of the injuries is why we aren't winning more". They see Segura & Gomez emerging as potential stars, see Weeks starting to hit better, believe that Lohse & Gallardo are still top of the rotation guys and see the Brewers contending in 2014 with a few upgrades.

 

I think such thinking is a fatal flaw that could doom our franchise into more mediocrity, and I sincerely hope I'm wrong.

 

If you see it differently, help me out here. Ease the mind of a concerned die hard Brewers fan. Is there any indication that the Brewers will retool/rebuild?

[DHonks]

we've now won 4 of 5 series. We're not back into the division, but if we had a nice stretch of winning 15 of 17, including some divisional wins, that would be a huge help. in 2011 we weren't in first at this point, and people were declaring that we should sell everything.

[brewmann04]

I think if Melvin Talk is correct is that they will look to move some pieces for help down the road.

[torts]

we've now won 4 of 5 series. We're not back into the division, but if we had a nice stretch of winning 15 of 17, including some divisional wins, that would be a huge help. in 2011 we weren't in first at this point, and people were declaring that we should sell everything.

 

15 of 17? LOL come on now, how is that even realistic at this point?

[chadomac]

Whatever way is easier to acquire a decent starting rotation is the way to go. I don't know which way that is, but I know that this team is extremely talented for being so bad. The rotation has just been that awful that we are playing from behind all the time and that is probably causing our offense to underperform a bit as a whole. I look at the bullpen and the lineup and I really like everything we have going on except for our current 1B situation.

 

Rickie Weeks struggling is not what is keeping this team from being successful... the rotation is the only real problem, but it's a big one. Other than Lohse, it's been atrocious.

[Outlander]

I think after the Greinke trade last year they may be more willing to sell as they were able to fill a huge hole at SS and improved the pitching depth in the minors. If they could fill their future hole at third and improve their pitching again in the process I think Melvin would be more than willing to make some moves.

[Invader3K]

Moderator note:

I think this thread is OK in the MLB forum as long as we stay on the general topic of whether or not Melvin and Attanasio will be willing to "sell" at the trade deadline. If it gets into specific trade ideas or rumors, those things would be more appropriate in the Trade Rumors/Proposals forum which already has a couple threads talking about those aspects. Thanks.

[splitterpfj]

I think the Brewers should be willing to listen on all of the players you listed, as well as K-Rod, Henderson, Gonzalez and Gorzelanny, if they can get some young talent, they should do it.

 

Don't expect too much though, there's no way they'll move that many players in such a short window. They'll make a deal somewhere, but I wouldn't expect a complete overhaul.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think that they should trade Gallardo, Lohse, Aoki, K-Rod, Axford, Ramirez and restock their farm system with multiple great prospects.

 

You are not going to get multiple great prospects for those guys. YoGa might get you Segura but not Segura, Helwig and Pena. He isn't Greinke so he wouldn't get you the same haul. Lohse if nobody wanted to give up a first round draft pick why would they give up a great prospect? Relievers rarely get you great prospects. K-Rod was essentially free for the taking and nobody took him. He's not going to net you a great prospect after a few innings of work this season. Aoki and Ramirez are decent enough players but not world beaters. Especially with Ramirez nursing a sore leg that isn't going to get fully healed until the off season. Thay are not going to be the difference between a playoff run and not. They are more likely to get average type prospects which we already have a enough of. I think you can get a better return on those guys in the winter. If we keep most of them minus maybe K-Rod or something I think we do have enough to make a run next season. Thinking our current pitchers aren't going to improve seems to miss they are capable of improving from where they are. We would be hard pressed to have as bad a luck on the injury front as we do this season and there will be very few holes to fill outside of the pitching staff.

[JohnBriggs12]

The thing is, what does "down the road" mean for this team? Is it next year or 2016? It's lineup core, Braun, Gomez, Segura and Lucroy are either in the midst of their primes or just emerging. Aoki and Ramirez, though in their 30's are decent bets to be productive in 2014. Surely you can surround those four to six with better quality than they have at times this year. The two guys who were supposed to be the mainstays of the starting rotation, Gallardo and Lohse, failed to keep them afloat in April and May. But both are signed through 2015 and have picked it up in recent weeks. Do you bet that either or both can start off a season in better form next year? If you think they can you have to be inclined to keep them. There's certainly enough talent around them to stay in the race. Who's in the rest of the rotation next year is anyone's guess. There's certainly not a lack of quality arms. What there has been here the last couple seasons though is a lack of urgency. I didn't agree with the Lohse signing, but if you wanted him shouldn't you have gotten him in February? Corey Hart goes down well before the season, and Gamel follows him the first week of spring and your best alternative is to move a 36 year old shortstop coming off a serious knee injury to an offensive position like first base? Seriously? For two years in a row, the 2B you once took 2nd overall in the draft, doesn't reach the Mendoza line until June when the team is already effectively out of it. But no moves are made to bench/trade/cut him until it's too late.

 

So you trade Gallardo and Lohse, and what are you getting back? In the meantime you have to fill 2 more rotation spots. Yes you do free up cash, but you are still not in position for the $100 million plus pricetags for premium free agents. Essentially, you just end up filling in with the next Lohse or Randy Wolf.

 

There are guys that can and should be moved that can provide something for down the road without significantly affecting the near term. They are bullpen arms. Ramirez has a hefty price tag for next year, and won't bring much beyond salary relief for 2014. Maybe somebody will overpay like they did for Greinke, and include a genuine prospect, but that's to be seen. Aoki is a guy I see that has value now, and that could be replaced reasonably well internally. He's also not a guy you would look ahead 3-4 years and figure he's going to be here. So that's the guy I'd shop.

[Thurston Fluff]

Aoki is a guy I see that has value now, and that could be replaced reasonably well internally. He's also not a guy you would look ahead 3-4 years and figure he's going to be here. So that's the guy I'd shop.

 

I agree with you on him. But I think he might get you more of a return in winter when teams are building for the whole season.

[torts]

so wait, you trade Aoki, and then who becomes the leadoff batter? Brewers struggled for years to find a consistant leadoff batter and they finally get one, just in time for you all to want him traded!

[chadomac]

This team has way too much talent to not try and be competative in the next couple years... but is it possible for them to acquire 2-3 quality starting pitchers that quickly without making huge holes in their lineup?

[Bombers]

Torts - I agree. I like Aoki. He is the best leadoff hitter we have had in a long time. I don't want to see him moved.

 

JohnBriggs12 - I agree. What does down the road even mean? Are we scratching the 2014 season when it is June 2013? I am sorry, but I cannot get on board with that. Realistically we are missing 1 top end pitcher. All other pieces to the puzzle are accounted for. So why sell everything. I am fine with trading Hart as he is gone after this season anyhow, but trading Lohse, Ramirez, Gallardo, etc will not just concede 2014 but probably 2015 too. As JB and Thurston said, you are not going to get a AAA Jeremy Hellickson in return for these guys. You are going to get a crapshoot High A / AA player. Then you will be stuck getting 3 yr $30 mil pitchers to fill out the rotation. I would rather continue the course and only trade players who are in a contract year when that year is in the can. (i.e. Hart)

 

So the real statement of this thread is I don't want the Brewers to try and compete until at least 2016. Which by then we will need a whole host of new players. I guess I am not on board with a 3 year re-build. I would find that quite drastic, IMO.

[JohnBriggs12]

so wait, you trade Aoki, and then who becomes the leadoff batter? Brewers struggled for years to find a consistant leadoff batter and they finally get one, just in time for you all to want him traded!

 

There's no question Aoki would be missed in the leadoff spot. He's one of the best in the game right now. Segura isn't your "classic" leadoff guy, but he does fit the mold of Paul Molitor and there's no reason he couldn't have success there. Then put Schafer in the 2nd spot. I think he'd make good use of that spot in front of Braun.

[TheCrew07]

so wait, you trade Aoki, and then who becomes the leadoff batter? Brewers struggled for years to find a consistant leadoff batter and they finally get one, just in time for you all to want him traded!

 

Over the years this has always the argument against trading a productive hitter... "You can't trade him because he's productive and who will replace him?" To me that's very linear thinking, it's playing checkers. We need to play chess. The answer to that question is that in the immediate future it only matters if the replacement position can be league average if the pitcher is *that* much better than the scrub he is replacing the team will be stronger and will more win games with less offense from one position.

 

The problem is this, if you won't trade a productive hitter like Gomez or Aoki, then I would like someone to explain how exactly we will ever get the impact pitching to match-up with post season rivals? We have to give value to value, the Brewers aren't able to afford impact pitching in Free Agency, and we haven't been developing pitchers...

 

I've put a ton of thought into organization building over the years, which has very little to do with assembling the best possible MLB roster in a calendar year, and I don't see how it can be done without trading productive MLB pieces. I've been repeating the same mantra for a very long time now: without young impact pitching none of the rest matters. I firmly believe that pitching has to come first for Milwaukee and the Brewer's pitching problems under Melvin but going back much longer have been very well chronicled.

 

I would very much like someone to explain to me where our impact pitching will come from if not via trade and without trading a productive MLB hitter.

[Invader3K]

so wait, you trade Aoki, and then who becomes the leadoff batter? Brewers struggled for years to find a consistant leadoff batter and they finally get one, just in time for you all to want him traded!

 

Aoki has been a godsend to the Brewers and I'm a huge fan of what he's done on this team, but he'll be 32 before Opening Day next season. How many more years do you bet he can continue produce as he's doing this season?

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Last year was the 1st time in awhile that they sold some players. I think if they linger near or at .500 they won't sell. I see a small sale in July. Maybe guys like Rodriguez, Gorzelanny, Henderson.

[Thurston Fluff]

The problem is this, if you won't trade a productive hitter like Gomez or Aoki, then I would like someone to explain how exactly we will ever get the impact pitching to match-up with post season rivals? We have to give value to value, the Brewers aren't able to afford impact pitching in Free Agency, and we haven't been developing pitchers...

 

Filling one hole by creating another is not a good answer. The only time trading good players make sense is if you are trading from a position you have covered after the trade. Or if they are about to become free agents but that is more by necessity than choice. We have pitchers.

Peralta and Hellweg actually have pretty high ceilings if they are given some time to develop. Peralta is going through his rookie learning now. Hellweg isn't far behind. WE also have several others who can be at least major league average in a year or two. These are not guys who need another three to five years to be serviceable major league players. While they might not be that ace everyone seems to be looking for we have to be realistic. We are not getting a young ace by trading anyone on our roster not named Braun. That does not mean we can't compete if we have the other pieces in place.

[fondybrewfan]

Unless we truly can get a top of the line #1 type starter prospect I would be inclined to hang on to our pieces and hope the performances rebound next year. I like the starters we have at AA and AAA enough that I think they would be upgrades over Estrada, Peralta, etc. I don't want them to get blocked by anyone but a top tier starting prospect.

 

I don't think anyone on the Brewers is screaming to get traded anyways. Aram won't bring anything good back. Sure you could trade Gomez but man it would take awful lot to part with him given his current performance and contract. I feel Gallardo is still pretty important to the future. I just don't think we could trade anyone, other than perhaps Gomez, that would really bring elite talent back. I think we are close enough to competing again that I don't want to trade valuable guys just to get back a prospect in A or AA that may or may not amount to anything

[monty57]

If something isn't changed, next year will be basically this year's team minus Hart, but because of pay bumps, we'll almost certainly have a $100MM payroll so we won't have money to fill any holes. This coming at a time when ticket sales (our main source of revenue) are declining and will likely continue to decline into next year (no big free agent signing to bump sales). Plus our 30-somethings will be a year older, which in baseball is not a good thing.

 

Schafer is absolutely a major league player, and we have several other MLB ready OFs in the system, so it makes a whole lot of sense to shop at least one of Gomez and Aoki, as they both have plenty of trade value. Hopefully Gallardo's recent string of better outings will bring his trade value back up, as he could bring a franchise-changing amount of talent back. Whoever said that he wasn't Greinke, so we shouldn't expect a Greinke-like return needs to realize that Gallardo is under a fairly inexpensive contract for a couple more years, while Greinke was a half-season rental. I've posted the comparison several times, but I believe a 27-year-old Gallardo (entering prime) should net a similar return as a 31-year-old Shields (exiting prime), which was essentially one Top 10 prospect and another Top 100 prospect. The problem is determining why he's lost velocity and whether it's a permanent thing. Ramirez is old, limping around on a bum knee, can't play everyday and is still owed around $25MM for the remainder of his contract. If we could con someone into giving us value in return for him, I'd be elated. Weeks has negative value, and we just have to hope his option doesn't vest. Relievers won't net much, but we should definitely shop K-Rod and Gonzalez who will be gone next year, and Axford if we can fool anyone into giving up something for him (he'll probably make $7-8MM next year).

 

I doubt we'll make moves that would look like we're giving up on 2014, but I don't see much chance of us being any good if we stand pat. We'd probably top out "middle of the pack," which means not good enough to make the playoffs, but not bad enough to get a good draft pick and all the "pool money" that comes along with being really bad. At the very least, I expect us to try to get rid of some salary, since the ownership group is set up to lose a lot of money if ticket sales drop and we don't get rid of some payroll. Hopefully we can get something of value in return, and it's not a salary dump.

[TheCrew07]

Filling one hole by creating another is not a good answer.

 

Melvin is that you? Once again that's not really what I said, I'm talking about making the MLB team as a whole better. We have plenty of OF depth, it's not creating hole anymore than trading Hart would have created a hole. A "hole" is our pitching staff, not a place where we have depth.

 

The only time trading good players make sense is if you are trading from a position you have covered after the trade. Or if they are about to become free agents but that is more by necessity than choice. We have pitchers.

 

Peralta and Hellweg actually have pretty high ceilings if they are given some time to develop. Peralta is going through his rookie learning now. Hellweg isn't far behind. WE also have several others who can be at least major league average in a year or two. These are not guys who need another three to five years to be serviceable major league players. While they might not be that ace everyone seems to be looking for we have to be realistic. We are not getting a young ace by trading anyone on our roster not named Braun. That does not mean we can't compete if we have the other pieces in place.

 

So then you really don't have a solution other than the status quo?

[danzig6767]

The problem is this, if you won't trade a productive hitter like Gomez or Aoki, then I would like someone to explain how exactly we will ever get the impact pitching to match-up with post season rivals? We have to give value to value, the Brewers aren't able to afford impact pitching in Free Agency, and we haven't been developing pitchers...

 

Filling one hole by creating another is not a good answer. The only time trading good players make sense is if you are trading from a position you have covered after the trade. Or if they are about to become free agents but that is more by necessity than choice. We have pitchers.

Peralta and Hellweg actually have pretty high ceilings if they are given some time to develop. Peralta is going through his rookie learning now. Hellweg isn't far behind. WE also have several others who can be at least major league average in a year or two. These are not guys who need another three to five years to be serviceable major league players. While they might not be that ace everyone seems to be looking for we have to be realistic. We are not getting a young ace by trading anyone on our roster not named Braun. That does not mean we can't compete if we have the other pieces in place.

 

Besides the fact that Peralta throws hard, what else is there to say he has a high ceiling?

 

Yea, he's basically a rookie this year, but he hasn't just struggled a bit, he's been terrible.

 

Only 45 K's in 80 innings. A brutal 45/32 K/BB ratio. A brutal 1.663 WHIP. He wasn't exactly dominant in the minors either with a career 1.410 WHIP, including a 1.582 last year in AAA.

 

I see the odds being very low of Peralta ever developing into a really good starter.

[splitterpfj]

Segura could handle the leadoff spot easily, the question is, can Logan Schafer handle the 2 spot?

 

Defensively, and on the bases, the Brewers wouldn't lose much, if anything, going from Aoki to Schafer, but Schafer isn't likely to hit as well as Aoki. If Schafer can hit "well enough", I'm sure there's a young pitcher out there who could improve the team enough on the mound to make it a deal worth doing.

 

With Braun out and Schafer getting playing time, I would have to think the team is watching closely for this very reason. Aoki is a great fit, but, "you have to give something to get something", and he's over 30, with a possible replacement already on the roster.

[danzig6767]

 

The only time trading good players make sense is if you are trading from a position you have covered after the trade. Or if they are about to become free agents but that is more by necessity than choice. We have pitchers.

 

Peralta and Hellweg actually have pretty high ceilings if they are given some time to develop. Peralta is going through his rookie learning now. Hellweg isn't far behind. WE also have several others who can be at least major league average in a year or two. These are not guys who need another three to five years to be serviceable major league players. While they might not be that ace everyone seems to be looking for we have to be realistic. We are not getting a young ace by trading anyone on our roster not named Braun. That does not mean we can't compete if we have the other pieces in place.

 

So then you really don't have a solution other than the status quo?

 

Unlike Thurston, I'm more than fine with trading some vets at the deadline, but i wouldn't trade Gomez unless the offer was silly good.

 

As for the status quo comment by you though, there could be a way hypothetically without a bunch of trades and that simply being this organization actually drafting and developing better pitching for once. It's so very hard for any small market team to put together quality pitching staffs when the farm system goes pretty much decades not being able to draft and develop pitching. It's almost hard to do by going around 15 years and only draft/develop Sheets and Gallardo as quality starters, while other franchises do it so much better. Hell, our drafts rarely can even manage to develop good bullpen arms, much less starters. So far at least, Seid doesn't look much better than Jack Z was at drafting pitching.