Time to resurrect the Power 50 (with our readers' Power 25)

[paul253]

I'm sorry but this is an ugly list. The Brewer's system needs major work.

 

As far as the list goes, I think Jungmann is ranked way too high. I view him, if he even makes it, as a #5 starter who will put up an ERA around 4.5 (a Marco Estrada type prospect). If he is our second best prospect then we are in trouble. Taylor and Arcia could be really nice players if they continue to develop. I actually wouldn't mind seeing Arcia back at Wisconsin next season to allow the offense to catch up a little bit. I liked Coulter a lot heading into this year but injuries and inconsistent playing time seemed to have made for a lost year (he should be in Helena right now too). And if Roache can keep up these power numbers while cutting down a bit on K's and hitting in the .270-.280 range he could become our top position prospect.

 

The Brewers really, really need a strong 2014 draft.

[bkrause2]

I don't see why Morris deserves a Sept call-up.

 

DHonks, I guess my thinking was simply to get his feet wet and give him a look in a throw-away season. There are certainly things he still needs to work on, but he does lead the organization in home runs, and if they think he's the first baseman of the future, the end of a wasted season seems like a perfect time to take a look at him. Ultimately, I agree that more time at Triple-A would be good for Morris, and I think first base will be handled by some combination of Hart/Gamel/Francisco in 2014.

 

I'm sorry but this is an ugly list. The Brewer's system needs major work.

 

As far as the list goes, I think Jungmann is ranked way too high. I view him, if he even makes it, as a #5 starter who will put up an ERA around 4.5 (a Marco Estrada type prospect). If he is our second best prospect then we are in trouble.

 

paul253, I put Jungmann at #2 mainly because there are no real top notch, can't miss guys. There are definitely guys with higher ceilings (Taylor, Arcia, Roache, etc.) and I came very close to going higher with some of the youngsters on my list, but Jungmann seems like one of the safest bets to me to have a Major League future. Granted, that may be as a #4 or #5 but I think that speaks more to your point about the Brewers system as a whole. Their reluctance to deal away veterans to re-stock their farm system is maddening to me, but that's a topic for a different thread.

[LouisEly]

If you use ERA, the line between a #1 and a #2 is roughly 3.00 (when I drop the minimum IP to 80, the #32 ranked pitcher in ERA is Gaudin at 3.06), and between a #2 and a #3 is roughly 3.75. An era of 4.50 is a low #3/high #4.

[TheCrew07]

I believe Paul was referring to a first division rotation, not across baseball, but I could be wrong.

[CheezWizHed]

If you use ERA, the line between a #1 and a #2 is roughly 3.00 (when I drop the minimum IP to 80, the #32 ranked pitcher in ERA is Gaudin at 3.06), and between a #2 and a #3 is roughly 3.75. An era of 4.50 is a low #3/high #4.

 

This is what I was thinking. We forget how long its been since we have really had a #5 pitcher (before this year at least).

 

Maybe Jungmann is the 5th best pitcher on a WS team, but I think he will be better than a #5 overall. I would bet around a 4 ERA, making him a #3. Still not that is really great for your #2 prospect, but it sounds like Brad's list is a mix of ceiling and readiness.

 

I think the write-up for D’ Vontrey Richardson was off the mark, though (no offense). He didn't start where he left off... When he left, his prospect rankings were 100% due to tools; No production. I think he took the year off, got his head straight, and realized he really wanted to play. Now I think we are seeing a driven version of the D'Vo we had before. He started off 3 "notches" above where he was playing before. Good for him (and us).

 

In a year, when the higher ceiling players in the lower minors move up a bit more, plus adding another draft - with high picks, the system won't look so bad. As a small market team, this is the game we need to play; build up a big wave of prospects (ala Hardy, Fielder, Weeks, Braun) and use trades to augment that group (CC, Grienke, Marcum). That unfortunately, empties the cupboard where you need to build back up again. Perhaps DM could be doing a better job of selling off (although IMO, no one was buying this year). But if we want to see the playoffs or WS, we will see some variant of this over and over.

[LouisEly]

Start thinking about your final prospect rankings. I have time the week of Labor Day to put together the list. Please have it posted by Labor Day.

[TooLiveBrew]

Start thinking about your final prospect rankings. I have time the week of Labor Day to put together the list. Please have it posted by Labor Day.

Bump!

 

Thanks for taking on this task again, LE. I'm looking forward to seeing everybody's end-of-season revisions.

[nate82]

1. Tyrone Taylor, OF

2. Orlando Arcia, SS

3. Devin Williams, SP

4. Kh. Davis, OF

5. Ariel Pena, SP/RP

6. Jimmy Nelson, SP

7. Johnny Hellweg, SP

8. Tucker Neuhaus, 3B

9. Mitch Haniger, OF

10. Victor Roache, OF

11. Nick Delmonico 3B/1B

12. Taylor Jungmann, SP

13. Clint Coulter, C

14. Hunter Morris, 1B

15. Jed Bradley, SP

16. Ke. Davis, OF

17. Tyler Thornburg, RP

18. Michael Reed, OF

19. Drew Gagnon, SP/RP

20. Zach Quintana, SP

21. Jose Pena, OF

22. Chris McFarland, 2B

23. D' Vontrey Richardson, OF

24. Yadiel Rivera, SS

25. David Denson, 1B

[BrewersAA]

Guys, this list is HARD! And the guys making it hard are Scooter and Khrush… Believe me, I know you cant do what I am about to do, so I don’t want the lecture, but I thought it would be fun and wanted to show you all some numbers. If you project scooter out over 530 Abs (avg regulars at bats today) he would have 27 homers, his numbers across the board (except taking walks) are better than Brandon Phillips. “Scouts” said his defense was improving, prospect graders said “even though a scout told me… the prevailing feeling is still that he will be below average defensively.” Well his range factor is actually above average and his overall defensive ability definitely passes the eye test, way better then Rickie Weeks who was generally considered league average. The power has obviously been there, prospect grading services would have lead me to believe he might finish his career with 5 homers and a .275 average, imagine my surprise when he hits 5 in his first 100 Abs while carrying an avg over .300.

 

Then Khris Davis, the “fringe prospect who will never hit enough to tap that power”, with the historic start, if you project him out to the league average Abs he is at 56!!%! Homeruns and don’t forget his .338 avg. He is hitting 1 every 9 Abs, the other Chris davis is hitting one every 11.5 abs. Look, I know this won’t hold up for either guy, but it makes it really hard to grade the brewers system. Khrush Davis is batting .338 with 8 homers in the bigs over 75 abs, Tyrone Taylor and Orlando Arcia may never make the bigs nonetheless put up that kind of line, so how do I rank them ahead? Scooter has clearly been undervalued and under rated.

 

Another thing that makes it hard to rate is something that I have always been a firm believer in, and that’s promoting deserving players/performances when they earn it, something the brewers often times do not do, because without fail when a player appears to be on the verge of a call-up and game after game they put up unworldly numbers and then Melvin signs a street free agent (bum) to fill the open spot at the higher level, the player that was deserving of the call up then has a considerable performance drop off and never finishes the year strong (guys this is literally without fail for the 15 years I have followed the brewers minors, with 11 of those being under melvin). Who knows how those players development and potential might be viewed if they got the call-up and their performance stayed at a high level, often times we look too much at the raw numbers and forget about the absolute mental nightmare minor league baseball can be.

 

Put yourself in the shoes of Taylor Jungmann and Ariel Pena who both were absolutely killing it both on #1/2 type starter stretches when the brewers needed help at AAA… De la cruz and Laffey instead are signed (one of whom subsequently demoted) and Jungmann and Pena are both finishing off the season very mediocre. At this same time Jed Bradley was putting up an impressive stretch probably deserving of a call up, Brent Suter too who has been beat up lately but should still finish with a nice line. Also, lets not forget that tyler wagner was absolutely killing it and Jorge Lopez was on an unbelievable stretch all the way back to respectability, both have since really cooled off and will finish the year on a down turn. Who knows, maybe they just aren’t ready and will fail, but they seem to consistently fail at their current levels after these situations and there is at least one every year, this year there were several (I think it speaks to our system improving)

 

And Lastly there is Tyler Thornburg, is he graduated, a starter, a reliever?? Regardless he has been our most exciting prospect and our tops prospect at different points in time and now he can add having a dominant string of big league starts to his resume… where in the world do you rank this guy?

 

1. Jimmy Nelson

2. Tyrone Taylor

3. Johnny Hellweg

4. Orlando Arcia

5. Taylor Jungmann

6. Scooter Gennett

7. Tyler Thornburg

8. Khris Davis

9. Devin Williams

10. Nick Delmonico (strictly on other peoples opinion… sure only looks to be our 6th best hitting prospect at high A, I think that speaks to our system being underrated)

11. Ariel Pena

12. Hunter Morris

13. Jed Bradley

13. Victor Roach

14. Jorge Lopez

15. Mitch Haniger

16. Tyler Wagner

17. Caleb Gindl

18. David Goforth

19. Clint Coulter

20. Drew Gagnon

21. Tucker Neuhaus

22. Damien Magnifico

23. Michael Reed

24. Gian Rizzo

25. Nick Rameriz

26. Taylor Williams

27. Yadiel Rivera

28. Barrett Astin

29. Kentrail Davis

30. Brent Suter

31. Jason Rogers

32. Mark Rogers

33. Cameron Garfield

34. Hiram Burgos (would be higher, but I forgot him and I don’t want to redo the list)

35. D’vontrey Richardson (“”)

36. Anthony Banda

37. Max Walla

38. Jesus Sanchez

39. Sean Halton

40. Kyle Heckathorn

41. Josh Prince

42. Mike Fiers (another forgotten one, does he still qualify?)

43. Chris Mcfarland

44. Brooks Hall

45. David Denson

46. Eric Arnett

47. Garrett Cooper

48. Austin Ross

49. Tyler Roberts

50. Tyler Cravy

 

Just missed: Ruben Ozuna, Jacob Barnes, Omar Garcia, Cody Scarpetta, Renaldo Jenkins, Austin Blaski, Brock Kjellgarde (spelling), Zach Quintana, Michael Ratterree, Nick Bucci (forgot about him), Elvis rubio, Jorge Ortega, & Shawn Zarraga

How was 50 a regular following… man that’s tough, nice that there are guys with potential that didn’t make the 50, 2/3 years ago it was hard to find 30.

[LouisEly]

Just a note, with Weeks out for the season Gennett will certainly eclipse the 100-125 AB prospect limit by the time of the deadline (Labor Day) so he is no longer eligible. Since Scooter has 99 ABs right now and Kh. Davis has 77 I will make the decision that Gennett is not eligible for the list but Davis is. Gindl is still eligible as well.

 

Thornburg is still eligible as well (62 career IP, 20 appearances - I believe the limit is 100 IP or 30 appearances). I believe 27 is the age limit, so Wooten and Hand are eligible too.

[82brewcrew11]

According to what I found on MLB, the rookies limits for a pitcher are 50IP or 45 days on the active roster. Hitters need to meet the 130AB limit or have 45 days on the active roster. There is no limitation on the basis of appearances. Again, just what I am seeing.

 

Based on that criteria, I would think all of Gennett, Kh. Davis, and Thornburg would be exceed the rookie limits this season.

 

EDIT: I think Gindl and Wooten are going to exceed those limits as well.

[82brewcrew11]

1. Jimmy Nelson

2. Tyrone Taylor

3. Orlando Arcia

4. Johnny Hellweg

5. Victor Roache

6. Devin Williams

7. Ariel Pena

8. Hunter Morris

9. Taylor Jungmann

10. Mitch Haniger

11. Clint Coulter

12. Nick Delmonico

13. Gian Rizzo

14. Tucker Neuhaus

15. Jorge Lopez

16. Hiram Burgos

17. Drew Gagnon

18. Tyler Wagner

19. Jason Rogers

20. D'Vontrey Richardson

21. Michael Reed

22. Jed Bradley

23. David Goforth

24. Sean Halton

25. Brooks Hall

 

----------------------

 

26. Damien Magnifico

27. Kentrail Davis

28. Yadiel Rivera

29. Nick Ramirez

30. Cody Scarpetta

31. Austin Ross

32. Nick Bucci

33. Garrett Cooper

34. Jose Pena

35. Jorge Ortega

36. Anthony Banda

37. Josh Prince

38. Zach Quintana

39. Milton Gomez

40. Rodolfo Fernandez

41. Daniel Keller

42. Astin Barrett

43. Davis Denson

44. Elvis Rubio

45. Taylor Brennan

46. Chris McFarland

47. Angel Ortega

48. Carlos Belonis

49. Max Walla

50. Taylor Williams

 

Not sure the order is great but this is my top 25 and 25 more.

[heresrobin]

1. Jimmy Nelson

2. Devin Williams

3. Tyrone Taylor

4. Orlando Arcia

5. David Denson

6. Victor Roache

7. Tyler Wagner

8. Johnny Hellweg

9. Tucker Neuhaus

10. Ariel Pena

11. Clint Coulter

12. Hunter Morris

13. Michael Reed

14. Jacob Barnes

15. Tyler Cravy

16. Jorge Lopez

17. Nick Delmonico

18. Chris McFarland

19. Brent Suter

20. Hobbs Johnson

21. Clint Terry

22. Yadiel Rivera

23. Michael Ratterree

24. Garrett Cooper

25. Taylor Smith-Brennan

[Minigoon]

I'll give it a go.

 

1) Jimmy Nelson

2) Tyrone Taylor

3) Johnny Hellweg

4) Hunter Morris

5) Victor Roache

6) Devin Williams

7) Hiram Burgos

8) Taylor Jungmann

9) Tucker Neuhaus

10) Clint Coulter

11) Orlando Arcia

12) Nicky Delmonico

13) D'Vontrey Richardson

14) Mitch Haniger

15) Tyler Cravy

16) Michael Reed

17) Yadiel Rivera

18) David Goforth

19) Brent Suter

20) Brooks Hall

21) Kevin Shackelford

22) Tyler Wagner

23) Ariel Pena

24) Jesus Sanchez

25) Damien Magnifico

 

Also considered (in alphabetical order) Jed Bradley, Garrett Cooper, Kentrail Davis, Cameron Garfield, Adam Giacalone, Jalen Harris, Dustin Houle, Chris McFarland, Ben McMahan, Stephen Peterson, and Jason Rogers.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Here is mine (1-25):

 

Hellweg

J.Nelson

Thornburg

Gennett

Jungmann

T.Taylor

H.Morris

Delmonico

D.Williams

Coulter

Roache

Kh.Davis

Gindl

Haniger

A.Pena

Brooks Hall

O.Arcia

J.Bradley

Goforth

Ke.Davis

Magnifico

M.Reed

T. Neuhaus

D'Vo

Weisenburger

[sheetskout]

I'm sort of surprised that Jose Pena isn't on more of these lists.

 

I'm still sort of surprised more of you don't have Jose Pena on your lists.

[BrewersAA]

I think there have just been so many latin america signings that have been really big flops that we are all a little hesitant to put these guys like pena anywhere until we see a good amount of them stateside and for me at least A-ball level competition, whereas the amount of info we have on regular draft picks and comparability to what others similar have done we can feel more comfortable ranking them.

[HiAndTight]

God these lists are depressing....

 

 

Here's hoping that the Brewers get lucky and Nelson, Thornburg, Peralta, Hellweg and Devin Williams all stay healthy and improve their control and or any other question marks moving forward. We all know how likely that is.

[Mass Haas]

Prospect361.com - Top 10 Brewers

[JoeHova]

God these lists are depressing....

 

I had the exact same thought. Things are not looking too good right now.