2013-06-07 Phillies (Lee) at Brewers (Figaro), 7:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 5-4]

[valpocrewsader]

Speedster on 2B, no outs. I'd rather send up three hitters with a chance for a base hit to win it than count on executing a sac bunt then executing a sac fly. The book might say otherwise, but i'd rather send up guys to do their normal thing once the runner is in scoring position.

[AZBrewCrew]

Nice clean inning by Frank

[derflotr]

Speedster on 2B, no outs. I'd rather send up three hitters with a chance for a base hit to win it than count on executing a sac bunt then executing a sac fly. The book might say otherwise, but i'd rather send up guys to do their normal thing once the runner is in scoring position.

From what I remember, the run expectation difference between man-on-2nd-no-out and man-on-3rd-no-out is really small. It's hard enough to justify giving away an out just to move a guy to 2nd.

 

If it's Johnny Estrada, maybe someone could convince me a bunt isn't the worst idea in the world. But it's freaking Carlos Gomez. Any single scores him. Three chances. Give me a break.

[The stache]

Come on Brauny. Do something, for God's sake.

 

He's in an awful slump. 2 extra base hits, and 2 RBI in his last 10 games.

[The stache]

Ok, first and third. Can A Ram win it?

[DocLuna7]

Finally a W.

[The stache]

Woo hoo, a win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[LouisEly]

Jean. Freakin'. Segura.

[sdcheezhd]

Nice job by Braun and A-Ram. And some luck on Segura's.

 

On the fangraph stats there's a greater chance of scoring a run with 0 out runner on first then 1 out runner on 2d. Same with 0 out runner on 2d v 1 out runner oin 3d. And that's when the sac is successful. Factor in when it isn't and it only makes sense in pretty limited circumstances. Gomez on 2d with 0 out isn't one of those.

[AZBrewCrew]

I wish Sophia would do the postgame interview instead of Telly. She earned some major points with her bilingual skills the other night!

[TooLiveBrew]

I wish Sophia would do the postgame interview instead of Telly. She earned some major points with her bilingual skills the other night!

I completely agree. That was impressive.

[brewmann04]

Nice win can we finally build on this

[The stache]

I wish Sophia would do the postgame interview instead of Telly. She earned some major points with her bilingual skills the other night!

I completely agree. That was impressive.

 

Wasn't it, though? I was surprised, and I thought Yuni even looked surprised for a second. Though I wish he's said something off color after the pie in the face. Wonder if she would have tried to translate that.

[derflotr]

Nice job by Braun and A-Ram. And some luck on Segura's.

 

On the fangraph stats there's a greater chance of scoring a run with 0 out runner on first then 1 out runner on 2d. Same with 0 out runner on 2d v 1 out runner oin 3d. And that's when the sac is successful. Factor in when it isn't and it only makes sense in pretty limited circumstances. Gomez on 2d with 0 out isn't one of those.

BP agrees

 

Runner on 1st, no out: .8302 (expected runs)

Runner on 2nd, one out: .6574

 

Runner on 2nd, no out: 1.0657

Runner on 3rd, one out: .9125

[Oxy]

Nice job by Braun and A-Ram. And some luck on Segura's.

 

On the fangraph stats there's a greater chance of scoring a run with 0 out runner on first then 1 out runner on 2d. Same with 0 out runner on 2d v 1 out runner oin 3d. And that's when the sac is successful. Factor in when it isn't and it only makes sense in pretty limited circumstances. Gomez on 2d with 0 out isn't one of those.

BP agrees

 

Runner on 1st, no out: .8302 (expected runs)

Runner on 2nd, one out: .6574

 

Runner on 2nd, no out: 1.0657

Runner on 3rd, one out: .9125

 

That's not the right data. Expected runs takes ALL runs scored and averages them out into one number--this is valuable in the early innings. The expected runs is almost always going to go down when you give away an out--but for scoring ONE more run the percentage may go up depending on the situation. In the bottom of the ninth, you are looking for the % of times that 0 runs scores, and trying to minimize that percentage.

 

Also, if I recall from previously looking up those run expectancy charts, some of the common ones that are used are based off of stats from the late 90s and early 2000s--which were the most offensively homer skewed numbers in the history of baseball. I'd imagine that moving runners over has become more important as the homer rate has gone down.

[Oxy]

Nice job by Braun and A-Ram. And some luck on Segura's.

 

On the fangraph stats there's a greater chance of scoring a run with 0 out runner on first then 1 out runner on 2d. Same with 0 out runner on 2d v 1 out runner oin 3d. And that's when the sac is successful. Factor in when it isn't and it only makes sense in pretty limited circumstances. Gomez on 2d with 0 out isn't one of those.

 

Yeah. This is the right way to look at it. The numbers are so close though in both of those situations that it is highly dependent upon situation, though. Basically, if you have an average or better hitter/matchup at the plate he should be swinging away. If you have a bad hitter at the plate he should be bunting.

[derflotr]

Nice job by Braun and A-Ram. And some luck on Segura's.

 

On the fangraph stats there's a greater chance of scoring a run with 0 out runner on first then 1 out runner on 2d. Same with 0 out runner on 2d v 1 out runner oin 3d. And that's when the sac is successful. Factor in when it isn't and it only makes sense in pretty limited circumstances. Gomez on 2d with 0 out isn't one of those.

BP agrees

 

Runner on 1st, no out: .8302 (expected runs)

Runner on 2nd, one out: .6574

 

Runner on 2nd, no out: 1.0657

Runner on 3rd, one out: .9125

 

That's not the right data. Expected runs takes ALL runs scored and averages them out into one number--this is valuable in the early innings. The expected runs is almost always going to go down when you give away an out--but for scoring ONE more run the percentage may go up depending on the situation. In the bottom of the ninth, you are looking for the % of times that 0 runs scores, and trying to minimize that percentage.

 

Also, if I recall from previously looking up those run expectancy charts, some of the common ones that are used are based off of stats from the late 90s and early 2000s--which were the most offensively homer skewed numbers in the history of baseball. I'd imagine that moving runners over has become more important as the homer rate has gone down.

 

Those numbers are from this season. I haven't looked at ones from previous years, so you could use a sample size argument. Maybe they're weighted for historical trends, I don't know.

 

But, I was talking about the bottom of the 8th inning. I know K-Rod's been pretty solid, but I'd try to maximize offensive output unless you're on the home side and it's the ninth inning or later.