Scooter Gennett gets called up to MLB

[Funketown]

I've upped my expectations a little bit with his success in 70 PA's this season. If all goes well, maybe he can be a .280/.320/.380 type of player. If he grades out decently defensively, that's a nice guy to have under team control for the next several years.

 

I haven't been watching him defensively though. I remember grumblings that he's a bit below average at 2B. Anybody have thoughts on this?

[JohnBriggs12]

I've upped my expectations a little bit with his success in 70 PA's this season. If all goes well, maybe he can be a .280/.320/.380 type of player. If he grades out decently defensively, that's a nice guy to have under team control for the next several years.

 

I haven't been watching him defensively though. I remember grumblings that he's a bit below average at 2B. Anybody have thoughts on this?

 

His defensive numbers have never been horrible and they've improved every year. Remember, he just turned 23 on May 1st.

[igor67]

The crazy part of that line is that he has more HRs now in the majors than his 300+ AAA ABs this year. The other side of that is that his 2 doubles wouldn't project out to even 20 for a full season. It is way more exciting to watch him do well than flail away. I'm not looking for him to even be an above average hitter (though that would be nice). If he can keep the batting average in the .280 range, play average defense and have enough power to SLG .400 he's a pretty solid option. It's worth noting that if Scooter was posting say an .800 OPS in AAA this year, one could make a pretty decent case that once you account for the pitcher friendly nature of A+ and AA he had actually been pretty consistently the same guy making adjustments for each level, instead of a player whose line dropped each level.

His combined line for the year right now a .281/ .326/ .402. I could live with that for sure.

[JohnBriggs12]

Forgetting the numbers, to me he passes the eyeball test. He looks like he's got a clue at the plate. He's not up there flailing or looking like he doesn't belong facing major league pitching. He's got a nice balanced swing. That he looks that solid at 23 is what I like. He seems mature beyond his years.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Despite his small-ish (ok, he's a tiny little dude), he's always had a little bit of power. He's not Tony Gwynn Jr, who could never even keep defenses honest. That being said, I don't ever expect him to be more than an 8 to 12 homer guy (but that's ok). I just wish he'd work the count more, and take more walks. He's going to have to hit .300 to ever have a good OBP, and if he ever dips below .280, he's going to be a liability in the lineup.

 

Granted, plate discipline is something that can be learned, but his walk rate has been pretty consistent through four years in the minors.

 

I'm not worried about the lack of power. If he can play defense and get on base, things which can be trained and learned, he can provide value. It's just that he doesn't seem to be acquiring that skill.

[Funketown]

With 43 games left, I'm hoping they let Gennett get at least 150 PA's, which would give us a better idea of what he can do against MLB pitching, as well as watch him defensively a bit more.

[gregmag]

"Years of discouraging evidence"??? Really? Those 52 extra base hits he had for the T-Rats as a 20 year old in 2010 discouraging?

He's a .297 lifetime minor league hitter with a career slugging percentage of .409.

Scooter had an excellent year as a 20 year-old in A ball, hitting .309/.354/.463. Those were indeed encouraging stats. Interestingly, you jump right from a specific focus on that season to talk about his career slash stats -- or, rather, his career slash stats other than OBP. That's not analysis; it's advocacy that cherry-picks helpful information and omits unhelpful information.

 

Scooter has played three minor league seasons since that excellent year at Wisconsin. Each of his three slash stats has fallen at each level:

 

A+ (2011): .300/.334/.406

AA (2012): .293/.330/.385

AAA (2013): .280/.327/.371

 

Brevard is a tough hitting environment, so the 2011 numbers don't look bad. If that's his true level of performance, he can play. But you have to be a religious believer in the value of BA to like his 2012 numbers, and by 2013 a pretty unhappy pattern has fully asserted itself. If you find that pattern encouraging, then I envy your positive outlook on life.

 

Not bad numbers at all for a middle infielder especially considering he was on the younger side for the levels he's been at. His defense has improved every year. This year he's made just 6 errors in 95 games between AAA and the majors. He just turned 23.

Scooter hasn't been especially young for his levels. Someone can correct me on this, but 20 at A-ball, 21 at A+, 22 at AA, 23 at AAA seems like a fairly normal age/level path for someone whom the organization considers a halfway decent prospect. I agree with your implicit point that he has time to develop, but it's not like he's getting this first MLB shot at 21. I think he needs to improve in order to help a good team; who knows whether he will. But up to this point, he's gotten worse, not better.

 

To say that Scooter's minor league numbers are good for a middle infielder once again ignores the decline in the numbers and also makes questionable assumptions about his defensive value. I think everyone knows that errors are a borderline useless measure of defensive value, and I haven't heard anyone else say that Scooter's defense "has improved every year." If Scooter is a decent defender at 2b, and if he can carry a .720 OPS in the majors, then he can be a passable starter. You suggest those "ifs" will obviously happen; I'm just not convinced yet.

 

Of course, he could be better than that; he could turn into a plus defender with a .750 OPS. Then we'd have a player. All I'm saying is that, based on the information we have, Scooter isn't that guy yet, and he'll need to have a developmental spike in order to become that guy.

 

Look, it's a lost season; we have Scooter; we don't have anyone else (well, Bianchi, but his value is heavily tied up in versatility). Scooter's going to play, and that's great. Let's see what we have. But a fair number of people seem to indulge optimism about Scooter's prospects that I don't see much evidence supporting. If he develops, beautiful. I just don't want us to be sitting on our hands if he doesn't, pretending that an empty .275 BA and mediocre defense is just fine for a starting 2b.

[bjkrautk]

Of course, he could be better than that; he could turn into a plus defender with a .750 OPS. Then we'd have a player. All I'm saying is that, based on the information we have, Scooter isn't that guy yet, and he'll need to have a developmental spike in order to become that guy.

 

Look, it's a lost season; we have Scooter; we don't have anyone else (well, Bianchi, but his value is heavily tied up in versatility). Scooter's going to play, and that's great. Let's see what we have. But a fair number of people seem to indulge optimism about Scooter's prospects that I don't see much evidence supporting. If he develops, beautiful. I just don't want us to be sitting on our hands if he doesn't, pretending that an empty .275 BA and mediocre defense is just fine for a starting 2b.

 

The issue that I'm seeing is expectations management. Scooter's not a great player right now, but a 23-year old coming in and lighting up the league is more exception than customary. If his plateau is a high average, slap-hitter who plays acceptable defense...that sounds like a good fit in the #8 spot in your lineup. I wouldn't want a whole team like that, but at the same time he'll be cheap enough that we won't have to worry about him living up to his contract (unlike the .663 OPS player he's replacing in the lineup, and who is not likely to get enough PAs next season for his option year to vest, thanks to Gennett's being in a Brewers uniform).

 

.247 / .327 / .384 was the full-season line for J.J. Hardy's rookie year in Milwaukee, at age 22.5 (August Birthday). Obviously, J.J. made it to Milwaukee based on the glove first and foremost, and carried a higher projection as a prospect than Gennett. I'd honestly be curious to know how Gennett's scouting reports as a prospect compared to someone more like a Mark Loretta (who carried a significantly higher OBP), or even Jim Gantner (who - as a sign of how baseball has changed - only hit for a .720+ OPS twice in his seventeen year career).

 

I don't think we have cause to believe that Scooter is going to be 'great,' but I tend to think he'll be 'good enough' to play 2b at least into his arbitration years.

[torts]

Rickie is having surgery on his hammy, out 4 - 6 months.

[The stache]

Scooter now 13 for his last 29. He has 6 multi-hit games in his last 7 starts. At .307 with 4 HR and 11 RBI, and a nifty .897 OPS.

[TURBO]

I am a Scooter supporter, but he won't/can't keep this pace up, but it's fun to watch!

 

He is a guy that is easy to root for, that's for sure.

[brewcrewdue80]

How dare a team succeed having offensive players not reaching .800OPS? Ask Pittsburgh who has 1 single player above .800 OPS? How dare St. Louis with 3 everyday players below .725OPS succeed at CF,3b, and SS? How dare Cincinnati succeed with 3 everyday players below .725OPS? 2b,SS,3b? Wait a second..2b? Brandon Phillips? He of 92RBI? but only a .717 OPS...I guess he's not worth a roster spot?

 

How will the Brewers ever survive letting Gennett play 2b with .725OPS or lower expectations?

[brewmann04]

The kid has put up decent # through the Minors and lets see how he finishes out.

[torts]

I am loving his play this month, hitting over .400 in August, TED WILLIAMS WATCH YOUR BACK!

[reillymcshane]

Scooter doesn't have a lot of upside, but it's hard not to like him at this time.

 

While he doesn't walk a lot, he is keeping a decent walk rate (for him) in the the big leagues, which is encouraging. The average is a little inflated, but I don't think hitting between .270-.290 is an issue. If he could add a little bulk and hit 5-10 HR, that would help him a lot.

 

I've only seen him a few times, but his defense looks very average thus far. And that leads to the next point - Scooter isn't Rickie Weeks. It pains me to say it, but I'm seriously thinking we should just cut ties with Rickie. His defense is bad. Really bad. And now with a torn hammy, it's not going to get any better.

 

While Rickie can be a frustrating player, I love his hard play. He went out there every day and played hard. But he'll be 31 in a month. That's not old, but it's not usually the age when you get better. He's a power hitter that's lost his power. Maybe his bat has slowed just a bit. He's definitely a little slower and little less agile. But it seems to have really affected him.

 

If Scooter looks decent the next six weeks, it might be time to say good bye to Rickie. I doubt we would get anything for him in a trade, so it might simply be best to let him go and eat his contract. I've advocated in the past to let Rickie play and hope he regains value, but I just don't know if that's in the cards.

 

If Scooter can hit .280, get 5-10 HR, and play average defense, he's a solid guy to have. Especially at a cheap price.

[sveumrules]

How dare a team succeed having offensive players not reaching .800OPS? Ask Pittsburgh who has 1 single player above .800 OPS? How dare St. Louis with 3 everyday players below .725OPS succeed at CF,3b, and SS? How dare Cincinnati succeed with 3 everyday players below .725OPS? 2b,SS,3b? Wait a second..2b? Brandon Phillips? He of 92RBI? but only a .717 OPS...I guess he's not worth a roster spot?

 

How will the Brewers ever survive letting Gennett play 2b with .725OPS or lower expectations?

 

The Reds, Cardinals and Pittsburgh are all in the top 5 in ERA league wide, we are 18th. You don't need to score as many runs to win when you surrender fewer. As our pitching will likely never be in the top 5 in the league we are going to need to score more runs to win games and can't afford too many below league average hitters, especially if they aren't adding value on the bases or in the field.

[CheezWizHed]

How dare St. Louis with 3 everyday players below .725OPS succeed at CF,3b, and SS? How dare Cincinnati succeed with 3 everyday players below .725OPS? 2b,SS,3b?

 

Most teams will accept (and possibly thrive) having a SS or CF hit .725 (or even a little less) and play good defense (that second part is pretty important). At 2nd base, .750 seems to be about the "average" point. 725 is going to be in that bottom 30-40% of the league.

 

If Scooter can put up a line like Marco Scutaro 300/355/372 (728 OPS), he is probably passable at 2B (lead off possibilities) even with below average D. But not someone who blocks prospects coming up. I'm hopeful he can sustain a line like that in the majors. But as others have mentioned, his minor league numbers dropped with each promotion.

 

Brandon Phillips? He of 92RBI? but only a .717 OPS...I guess he's not worth a roster spot?

Not sure if he is having a poor year or just age catching up to him, but the majority of his career was .750-810 OPS. That you like from a 2B.

 

Same with Freese and Fraiser at 3B. If they had a lifetime OPS of 725 (actually 770-780), they wouldn't be starting at 3B for those teams.

 

So, I'm glad to give Scooter (and Kh Davis and Schafer) an extended look this year to see if he can actually stick. That would be a welcome outcome of this dismal year. (Why not the same with our SPs???) But I'm not going to bet money on him, though.

[reillymcshane]

Major League 2b have produced a .262 BA / .321 OBP / .389 SLG / .711 OPS line for 2013

 

That's everyone, starters and back ups.

 

Of starters in the majors, there are 19 guys who qualify for the batting crown. The middle guy is a .728 OPS. So CheezWizHed's Scutero comp (he has a .727 OPS) is pretty much on target for an average guy.

 

If Scooter can be an average guy at the plate and in the field, he'd be a big upgrade over Weeks. And at the league minimum, he's really valuable. Remember, Scutero makes $7 million a year. If we can get a major league average 2B at minimum wage for a few years, it's gold. Guy's like Scooter are essential if we are to do well.

 

As a hitter, you can't plan on Scooter being a catalyst type. But that's not needed if we have Braun, Gomez, Luc, Segura, A-Ram producing at an above-average level. If Aoki and a 1B can maintain league average play - along with Scooter - it's pretty good line up, which we'll need, since our pitching isn't going to be a top 5 type group.

[Funketown]

Yes, given that Rickie Weeks seems to be toast at this point (I held out hope for a while this year), it's looking like Gennett may be a nice option, even if he isn't particularly exciting.

 

Even the pessimist in me sees a line of .270/.310/.370, and if he can put up that type of line and play average defense for the league minimum, he's a nice asset.

[torts]

as a 7 or 8 hitter that would be pretty great

[nate82]

Yes, given that Rickie Weeks seems to be toast at this point (I held out hope for a while this year), it's looking like Gennett may be a nice option, even if he isn't particularly exciting.

 

Even the pessimist in me sees a line of .270/.310/.370, and if he can put up that type of line and play average defense for the league minimum, he's a nice asset.

 

Except he is not going to play average defense he is probably more in line with Weeks defensively and if he puts up that line I wouldn't be all that impressed especially with an OPS of .680 anything below .700 and you better be a Carlos Gomez type of a defensive player otherwise there is no value in keeping a player like that.

[Funketown]

Having guys like Gennett at $400K a year to fill out the roster rather than guys like Yuni B, Cesar Izturis, Mark Kotsay, etc is definitely worth something.

 

His current Zips projection is a 95 wRC+. In the run environment we've been seeing over the past few years, a .280/.320/.380 line is pretty decent for a guy who is going to round out the lineup.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Bottom line - Weeks is paid like a top tier 2B that should be a big time run scorer and run producer. Gennett is probably little more than a replacement level player who could have a defined role on a good team. The fact there's even a comparison/discussion on Gennett taking playing time from Weeks is more of an indictment on Weeks' than an endoresement for Gennett.

[igor67]

I think Scooter's defense is a pretty important part of the conversation at this point. Based on past reports I was inclined to say it wouldn't be much different than Weeks. However if Scooter is a more reliably average defender than Rickie ever was that's a decent point in his favor. Not a huge difference in all likelihood, but judging defenders who are in the average range is difficult unless you can get clearer side by side comparisons. So for those who have seen a lot of Scooter this year I'm curious how they think he compares. I'm also aware that people might easily convince themselves more out of Weeks spite than Scooter's play that Scooter is a better defender.

[endaround]

Bottom line - Weeks is paid like a top tier 2B that should be a big time run scorer and run producer. Gennett is probably little more than a replacement level player who could have a defined role on a good team. The fact there's even a comparison/discussion on Gennett taking playing time from Weeks is more of an indictment on Weeks' than an endoresement for Gennett.

 

No, Weeks is paid like an average starting player.